Drake
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#58
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#152
Pace65.6#265
Improvement-3.0#344

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+1.7#128
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#45
Layup/Dunks-0.8#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#143
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-1.6#320

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#77
First Shot+2.6#99
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#119
Layups/Dunks-1.8#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#3
Freethrows-1.6#279
Improvement-1.4#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 27.5% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 4.3% 1.9%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.3
.500 or above 96.2% 97.3% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 96.2% 84.6%
Conference Champion 26.3% 27.8% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four1.7% 1.8% 1.5%
First Round25.4% 26.7% 14.9%
Second Round8.5% 9.1% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 2.8% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 412 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 243   South Dakota W 99-50 91%     1 - 0 +41.7 +20.0 +20.5
  Nov 20, 2021 83   Richmond W 73-70 66%     2 - 0 +6.6 -0.4 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2021 68   Belmont L 69-74 52%     2 - 1 +2.3 -3.7 +6.1
  Nov 26, 2021 13   Alabama L 71-80 23%     2 - 2 +6.5 +1.4 +5.6
  Nov 28, 2021 108   North Texas L 54-57 64%     2 - 3 +1.2 +0.4 -0.1
  Dec 02, 2021 204   Valparaiso W 73-60 89%    
  Dec 05, 2021 329   St. Thomas W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 08, 2021 335   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 11, 2021 50   Clemson L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 16, 2021 258   Jackson St. W 73-57 94%    
  Dec 19, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 84-55 99.7%   
  Dec 22, 2021 56   Saint Louis L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 02, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 05, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 174   Indiana St. W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 12, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 80-65 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 19, 2022 213   Bradley W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 30, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 02, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 112   Northern Iowa W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 09, 2022 93   Missouri St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 213   @ Bradley W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 16, 2022 245   Evansville W 71-56 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 23, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 154   Southern Illinois W 69-59 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.8 7.3 7.4 3.8 1.0 26.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.1 9.9 10.2 4.9 1.0 32.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 4.8 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.0 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.9 8.3 10.5 13.7 15.9 16.1 12.2 8.4 3.8 1.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.6 0.2
16-2 87.9% 7.4    5.7 1.7 0.0
15-3 59.8% 7.3    4.3 2.7 0.3
14-4 29.9% 4.8    2.1 2.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 17.2 7.7 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 85.3% 52.3% 33.0% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 69.2%
17-1 3.8% 74.0% 49.6% 24.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.0 48.4%
16-2 8.4% 52.3% 40.6% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 19.7%
15-3 12.2% 39.0% 33.8% 5.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.5 7.9%
14-4 16.1% 28.8% 28.1% 0.7% 12.1 0.1 0.7 2.7 1.0 0.1 11.5 1.0%
13-5 15.9% 23.5% 22.9% 0.5% 12.6 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 12.2 0.7%
12-6 13.7% 17.5% 17.5% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.0 11.3
11-7 10.5% 11.3% 11.3% 13.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 9.3
10-8 8.3% 10.1% 10.1% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.4
9-9 4.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6
8-10 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
7-11 1.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.2% 23.1% 3.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 5.0 8.8 5.0 2.2 0.5 0.1 73.8 4.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.1 14.3 27.3 15.6 15.6 27.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.2 15.9 15.9 15.9 34.9 17.5