Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#142
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#205
Pace63.7#327
Improvement+0.6#133

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#130
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#268
Layup/Dunks-0.2#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#101
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement+1.8#66

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#172
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#77
Layups/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#323
Freethrows+1.7#73
Improvement-1.2#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.7% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 41.8% 57.5% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.3% 69.2% 42.6%
Conference Champion 2.0% 4.0% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.8% 3.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 5.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 13
Quad 47 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 288 Northern Arizona W 77-71 77%     1 - 0 -0.7 +3.1 -3.7
  Thu, Nov 6 184 Robert Morris L 79-81 OT 71%     1 - 1 -6.6 -1.3 -5.2
  Fri, Nov 14 248 SIU Edwardsville L 59-61 81%     1 - 2 -10.0 -6.8 -3.4
  Mon, Nov 17 168 @College of Charleston W 71-62 45%     2 - 2 +11.4 +0.0 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 38 LSU L 62-71 14%     2 - 3 +3.7 -4.1 +7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 126 Georgia Tech W 84-74 46%     3 - 3 +12.1 +20.5 -7.6
  Tue, Dec 2 355 Western Illinois W 108-57 94%     4 - 3 +34.1 +37.6 +1.5
  Fri, Dec 5 106 UAB L 69-74 50%     4 - 4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 149 North Dakota St. L 94-99 62%     4 - 5 -7.0 +17.3 -24.2
  Thu, Dec 18 99 @Murray St. L 72-81 25%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -0.7 +3.8 -4.9
  Sun, Dec 21 256 @Evansville W 66-65 63%     5 - 6 1 - 1 -1.3 -1.1 -0.1
  Mon, Dec 29 85 Illinois St. L 69-72 40%    
  Sun, Jan 4 200 Indiana St. W 76-69 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 108 @Bradley L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Jan 10 69 Belmont L 73-77 36%    
  Wed, Jan 14 128 @Southern Illinois L 70-74 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 201 @Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 99 Murray St. L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 200 @Indiana St. W 73-72 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 256 Evansville W 73-64 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 108 Bradley W 70-69 51%    
  Tue, Feb 3 69 @Belmont L 70-80 19%    
  Fri, Feb 6 85 @Illinois St. L 66-75 22%    
  Mon, Feb 9 216 Valparaiso W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 201 Illinois-Chicago W 75-68 73%    
  Sun, Feb 15 96 @Northern Iowa L 59-66 25%    
  Wed, Feb 18 128 Southern Illinois W 73-71 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 216 @Valparaiso W 70-68 57%    
  Sun, Mar 1 96 Northern Iowa L 62-63 45%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.3 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.0 7.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 6.3 2.4 0.3 17.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.0 8.9 12.2 14.6 14.8 13.2 10.5 7.3 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 81.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 66.2% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 35.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 28.0% 28.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.9% 21.5% 21.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 2.2% 17.2% 17.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-6 4.1% 12.9% 12.9% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-7 7.3% 8.9% 8.9% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.6
12-8 10.5% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.9
11-9 13.2% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.5
10-10 14.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 14.3
9-11 14.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 14.3
8-12 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 8.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-14 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 95.7 0.0%