Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #164
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #187
Pace 66.7 #236
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 C C- B C D+
Defense #214 C- B- D C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #333 1.21 #114 -3.2 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #153 0.86 #53 +1.5 #95
Three Pointers 47% #63 1.01 #193 +2.7 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.0 #143
Freethrows 0.32 #143 71% #230 0.23 #166
Second Chance 25.7% #310 1.09 #86 0.28 #255
Turnovers 14.5% #44
Total Offense +0.6 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.24 #285 +3.0 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.65 #23 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 46% #45 1.09 #292 -4.5 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #213 -1.1 #213
Freethrows 0.30 #161 68% #25 0.20 #111
Second Chance 29.9% #149 0.90 #34 0.27 #72
Turnovers 14.8% #309
Total Defense -1.1 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #270 -1.5% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #117 3.6% #251
Possession Length 17.6 #215 17.2 #175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #232 0.17 #162
Improvement +1.1 #119 -1.6 #279

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.5 14.5
.500 or above 17.8% 37.4% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 62.1% 28.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 36 - 78 - 15
Quad 46 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 306 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 78% +0  1 - 0 -3 -2 C F B- -1 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 214 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 71% -2  1 - 1 -8 -2 F D+ A+ -6 D- B- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 246 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 76% -5  1 - 2 -10 -5 F+ B B+ -5 D+ A- F+
 Mon, Nov 17 151 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 35% +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D- F +11 A- A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 48 LSU L 62 - 71 14% -9  2 - 3 +2 -6 D F A+ +8 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 113 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 36% +5  3 - 3 +13 +21 A- A+ A+ -7 C B F
 Tue, Dec 2 362 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  4 - 3 +31 +37 A+ A+ B -1 C A- F
 Fri, Dec 5 121 UAB L 69 - 74 50% -2  4 - 4 -6 -3 F+ C- A -3 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 149 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 57% -9  4 - 5 -7 +17 A+ F B- -24 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 105 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 23% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +3 D+ C+ C -5 A- C- F
 Sun, Dec 21 288 @Evansville W 66 - 65 64% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -2 C D+ C- -1 A- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 89 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 37% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -10 F+ C A- -5 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 192 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 67% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +7 A C C+ -10 C+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 120 @Bradley L 66 - 93 28% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -21 -8 D+ F C+ -11 F+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 74 Belmont L 76 - 78 30% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +3 -0 A+ F F +3 A+ D C
 Wed, Jan 14 129 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 30% -4  7 - 9 3 - 4 +8 +1 D- B B- +6 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 134 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 32% -7  7 - 10 3 - 5 -2 +1 C F A+ -4 B C- F
 Wed, Jan 21 105 Murray St. W 101 - 90 43% +5  8 - 10 4 - 5 +12 +11 C A+ A+ -0 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 192 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 44% +5  9 - 10 5 - 5 +15 +1 C- F B +14 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 288 Evansville W 82 - 78 82% -6  10 - 10 6 - 5 -6 +10 C D A+ -16 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 120 Bradley L 73 - 87 50% -8  10 - 11 6 - 6 -14 +5 D C+ A+ -20 F D- C
 Tue, Feb 3 74 @Belmont L 90 - 103 15% -8  10 - 12 6 - 7 -2 +20 A+ A+ C+ -22 F D F
 Fri, Feb 6 89 @Illinois St. L 66 - 75 19%
 Mon, Feb 9 159 Valparaiso W 72 - 69 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 134 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 71 55%
 Sun, Feb 15 110 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 67 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 129 Southern Illinois W 72 - 71 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 159 @Valparaiso L 69 - 72 38%
 Sun, Mar 1 110 Northern Iowa L 63 - 64 47%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 11 +0 +1 C C- B -1 C- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.5 4.8 0.3 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 3.6 11.6 1.4 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 13.2 5.4 0.1 21.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 10.6 9.2 0.4 21.7 8th
9th 2.1 9.5 10.7 1.4 0.0 23.7 9th
10th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.5 11.3 23.8 27.5 22.1 9.6 2.9 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 2.9% 5.2% 5.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-9 9.6% 3.7% 3.7% 13.5 0.2 0.2 9.3
10-10 22.1% 2.7% 2.7% 13.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 21.6
9-11 27.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.3 0.0 27.2
8-12 23.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 23.6
7-13 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-14 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%