Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#111
Pace63.1#325
Improvement-1.9#300

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#124
First Shot+4.2#71
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#304
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement-2.5#343

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#124
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+0.7#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.1% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 76.7% 79.6% 54.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 78.4% 64.0%
Conference Champion 9.3% 9.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 2.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round9.6% 10.0% 6.3%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 36   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 +0.3 +2.1 -1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 128   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 43%     1 - 1 +25.7 +20.4 +5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 96%     2 - 1 +0.8 +3.7 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 184   Utah Valley L 75-77 75%     2 - 2 -6.1 +4.0 -10.2
  Nov 26, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 79-66 62%     3 - 2 +12.7 +2.3 +10.1
  Dec 03, 2024 243   Evansville W 63-61 83%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -5.3 -7.5 +2.4
  Dec 08, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-63 89%    
  Dec 14, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 18, 2024 191   @ Indiana St. W 77-76 55%    
  Dec 22, 2024 44   Nebraska L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 02, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 05, 2025 73   @ Drake L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 71   Bradley L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 132   Belmont W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 243   @ Evansville W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 73   Drake L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 25, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 80-73 74%    
  Mar 02, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.0 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.6 10.8 12.9 12.9 12.0 10.4 8.0 5.2 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 97.2% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 79.7% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.0
16-4 52.2% 2.7    1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 23.9% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.4 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 89.7% 58.6% 31.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
19-1 0.4% 53.2% 50.0% 3.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.4%
18-2 1.2% 39.3% 36.2% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4.9%
17-3 2.8% 27.8% 27.4% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 0.6%
16-4 5.2% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 11.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.0%
15-5 8.0% 19.6% 19.6% 12.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.5
14-6 10.4% 14.6% 14.6% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 8.9
13-7 12.0% 12.1% 12.1% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.6
12-8 12.9% 8.1% 8.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-9 12.9% 5.0% 5.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.3
10-10 10.8% 3.5% 3.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-11 8.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4
8-12 6.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-13 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 90.4 0.1%