Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.3 #105
Expected Predictive Rating +5.9 #88
Pace 78.2 #14
Improvement -2.4 #285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #66 B- B B- B C+
Defense #211 C+ C- C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.22 #100 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.83 #71 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 43% #141 1.04 #146 +1.6 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #96 +2.7 #95
Freethrows 0.33 #102 77% #42 0.25 #64
Second Chance 33.0% #113 1.16 #36 0.38 #49
Turnovers 15.5% #93
Total Offense +5.3 #66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #12 1.06 #61 -2.2 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.76 #183 -2.6 #344
Three Pointers 26% #365 1.07 #252 +6.8 #4
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #111 +2.0 #111
Freethrows 0.29 #147 73% #210 0.21 #146
Second Chance 32.4% #263 1.06 #238 0.34 #259
Turnovers 16.2% #224
Total Defense -1.0 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -0.6% #119
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #101 -3.4% #112
Possession Length 15.8 #46 16.5 #54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #182 0.18 #216
Improvement -0.7 #228 -1.7 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 18.0% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 10.8% 17.4% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.5% 18.0% 13.1%
Second Round1.9% 2.4% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 54 - 7
Quad 38 - 312 - 11
Quad 411 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 80% +5  1 - 0 +3 -0 F B- D- +3 C B- A-
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 A- F A+ +1 B B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 39 @SMU L 91 - 102 13% -9  2 - 1 +5 +11 A- A- C+ -4 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 248 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 87% +11  3 - 1 +12 +16 A+ A+ F+ -5 B F B+
 Tue, Nov 18 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 91% +16  4 - 1 +11 +16 C+ A+ A+ -5 B+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 168 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 68% -3  4 - 2 -3 +9 B B- A -12 C+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 84 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 42% -16  4 - 3 -7 -13 F C D +7 B A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 80 George Washington W 96 - 95 40% +1  5 - 3 +8 +21 A- A+ A -13 C- B F
 Tue, Dec 2 298 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 92% +10  6 - 3 +21 +7 D A- C- +15 A- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 303 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 92% +13  7 - 3 +2 +2 A F F+ +0 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 63 Akron W 115 - 100 33% +9  8 - 3 +24 +27 A+ B+ D -6 C- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 166 Drake W 81 - 72 77% +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +6 +10 D- A A+ -3 B+ F+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 159 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 56% -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +9 +13 A+ F B -5 D+ D+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 130 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 70% +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +2 +10 A+ F C -8 B F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 136 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 49% -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +9 +8 F A+ C+ +0 B C- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 120 Bradley W 86 - 66 67% +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +20 +14 A+ C B- +6 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 286 @Evansville W 79 - 69 79% +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +6 +5 D+ C+ A +1 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 159 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 76% +6  15 - 3 7 - 0 +10 +14 A+ D B+ -5 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 189 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 81% +5  16 - 3 8 - 0 -1 +8 B- B+ C -9 B- F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 166 @Drake L 90 - 101 56% -5  16 - 4 8 - 1 -8 +5 C D+ C+ -11 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 110 @Northern Iowa L 76 - 81 41% -4  16 - 5 8 - 2 +2 +16 C A+ A- -14 F C D
 Wed, Jan 28 89 Illinois St. L 65 - 70 55% -3  16 - 6 8 - 3 -2 -3 F B- A+ +1 C+ C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 74 @Belmont L 86 - 103 26% -20  16 - 7 8 - 4 -6 +15 C- A+ C -21 C F F
 Tue, Feb 3 136 Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 74 71% +8  17 - 7 9 - 4 +6 +3 C- A+ C +2 B+ C D-
 Fri, Feb 6 130 @Southern Illinois L 79 - 80 48%
 Mon, Feb 9 110 Northern Iowa W 73 - 69 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 189 @Indiana St. W 85 - 82 63%
 Sun, Feb 15 74 Belmont L 87 - 88 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 89 @Illinois St. L 76 - 81 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 286 Evansville W 86 - 72 91%
 Sun, Mar 1 120 @Bradley L 82 - 83 47%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +4 +5 B- B B- -1 C+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.1 1.9 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.9 16.6 17.6 4.7 0.2 42.1 2nd
3rd 1.1 11.3 10.7 1.3 24.3 3rd
4th 0.1 4.6 7.4 1.3 13.4 4th
5th 0.8 4.8 1.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.6 11.3 22.6 28.9 22.3 9.9 2.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 89.7% 1.9    1.4 0.6
15-5 52.1% 5.1    1.8 3.0 0.3
14-6 15.3% 3.4    0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2
13-7 1.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 3.6 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.1% 25.8% 25.8% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.6
15-5 9.9% 22.4% 22.4% 11.7 0.8 1.4 0.1 7.7
14-6 22.3% 19.1% 19.1% 11.9 0.6 3.5 0.2 18.0
13-7 28.9% 16.8% 16.8% 12.1 0.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 24.1
12-8 22.6% 11.2% 11.2% 12.3 0.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 20.1
11-9 11.3% 8.0% 8.0% 12.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.4
10-10 2.6% 4.9% 4.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 2.5
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 12.0 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.5 5.5 43.6 50.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%