Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#89
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#98
Pace65.0#284
Improvement-0.2#189

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#108
First Shot+3.2#93
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#237
Layup/Dunks+4.4#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#193
Freethrows-3.7#346
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#70
First Shot+4.6#47
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#238
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#79
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 38.0% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 98.9%
Conference Champion 43.2% 45.1% 34.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round36.1% 37.6% 29.6%
Second Round8.1% 8.7% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.9% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 26 - 6
Quad 416 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 78-59 83%     1 - 0 +15.1 +5.2 +10.9
  Nov 16, 2021 241   @ Illinois St. W 77-65 76%     2 - 0 +10.9 +3.6 +7.5
  Nov 22, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. L 58-66 62%     2 - 1 -5.2 -10.2 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2021 297   Long Beach St. W 80-43 89%     3 - 1 +29.7 +3.6 +26.4
  Nov 24, 2021 163   James Madison W 74-62 71%     4 - 1 +12.2 +5.0 +7.6
  Dec 04, 2021 183   Middle Tennessee W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 10, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 18, 2021 100   Chattanooga W 65-61 65%    
  Dec 22, 2021 21   @ Auburn L 66-77 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 277   Tennessee Tech W 77-62 91%    
  Jan 06, 2022 347   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 322   @ SIU Edwardsville W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 13, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 80-62 95%    
  Jan 15, 2022 68   @ Belmont L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 20, 2022 347   Eastern Illinois W 78-55 98%    
  Jan 22, 2022 346   Tennessee Martin W 81-58 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 277   @ Tennessee Tech W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 134   Morehead St. W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 322   SIU Edwardsville W 76-58 94%    
  Feb 10, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 12, 2022 134   @ Morehead St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 259   Austin Peay W 74-59 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 346   @ Tennessee Martin W 78-61 93%    
  Feb 24, 2022 68   Belmont W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 77-66 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.7 15.0 13.9 4.3 43.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.0 11.7 12.8 4.4 35.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.5 5.9 4.0 0.8 16.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.1 6.4 11.4 17.6 21.3 19.4 13.9 4.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
17-1 100.0% 13.9    12.2 1.7
16-2 77.5% 15.0    9.1 5.8 0.1
15-3 36.4% 7.7    3.2 3.8 0.8
14-4 11.3% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.2% 43.2 29.5 12.3 1.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.3% 69.9% 62.6% 7.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.3 19.6%
17-1 13.9% 61.0% 59.1% 2.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.4 4.8%
16-2 19.4% 41.7% 41.6% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 11.3 0.2%
15-3 21.3% 39.1% 39.0% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 1.7 3.8 2.4 0.4 13.0 0.2%
14-4 17.6% 26.4% 26.4% 13.6 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 13.0
13-5 11.4% 20.9% 20.9% 13.9 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 9.0
12-6 6.4% 16.9% 16.9% 14.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 5.3
11-7 3.1% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7
10-8 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.3% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.5% 35.9% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5 9.8 12.4 7.3 2.5 0.3 63.5 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 45.7 54.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 67.7% 10.0 35.5 32.3