Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#99
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#75
Pace77.3#27
Improvement+3.0#38

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#60
First Shot+4.4#71
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#96
Layup/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#83
Freethrows+2.9#29
Improvement+2.5#33

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#174
First Shot-0.3#182
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks-2.1#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#20
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement+0.5#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 16.1% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 98.8% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.3% 85.1%
Conference Champion 18.4% 21.8% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round14.8% 16.0% 11.6%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 411 - 10
Quad 411 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 221 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 81%     1 - 0 +4.2 -1.4 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +21.9 +14.4 +2.8
  Tue, Nov 11 42 @SMU L 91-102 18%     2 - 1 +4.1 +11.0 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 15 232 Nicholls St. W 99-79 88%     3 - 1 +12.6 +16.0 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 18 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 93%     4 - 1 +9.5 +16.4 -5.7
  Sun, Nov 23 157 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 69%     4 - 2 -2.8 +8.5 -11.1
  Mon, Nov 24 70 McNeese St. L 60-73 40%     4 - 3 -5.1 -11.9 +7.5
  Tue, Nov 25 77 George Washington W 96-95 42%     5 - 3 +8.3 +20.8 -12.6
  Tue, Dec 2 307 Morehead St. W 84-52 93%     6 - 3 +20.6 +10.3 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 6 277 Bellarmine W 81-68 91%     7 - 3 +3.8 +6.3 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 59 Akron W 115-100 36%     8 - 3 +23.9 +24.0 -2.4
  Thu, Dec 18 142 Drake W 81-72 75%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +7.2 +10.4 -2.7
  Sun, Dec 21 216 @Valparaiso W 85-79 72%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +5.3 +11.2 -6.0
  Mon, Dec 29 128 Southern Illinois W 85-79 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 201 @Illinois-Chicago W 84-79 67%    
  Sun, Jan 4 108 Bradley W 81-77 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 256 @Evansville W 82-74 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 216 Valparaiso W 84-72 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 200 Indiana St. W 88-77 84%    
  Wed, Jan 21 142 @Drake W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 96 @Northern Iowa L 70-73 38%    
  Wed, Jan 28 85 Illinois St. W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 69 @Belmont L 83-89 30%    
  Tue, Feb 3 201 Illinois-Chicago W 87-76 84%    
  Fri, Feb 6 128 @Southern Illinois W 83-82 52%    
  Mon, Feb 9 96 Northern Iowa W 73-70 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 200 @Indiana St. W 85-80 67%    
  Sun, Feb 15 69 Belmont W 86-85 51%    
  Wed, Feb 18 85 @Illinois St. L 78-82 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 256 Evansville W 85-71 89%    
  Sun, Mar 1 108 @Bradley L 78-80 44%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 5.5 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.1 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.4 6.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.9 6.7 2.0 0.2 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.6 5.0 1.3 0.1 16.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.6 14.0 15.2 15.7 12.9 8.8 5.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 98.4% 2.3    2.1 0.2
17-3 87.2% 4.4    3.4 1.0 0.0
16-4 62.7% 5.5    3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.0% 4.0    1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.2% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 10.8 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 47.4% 31.6% 15.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.1%
19-1 0.7% 45.2% 40.6% 4.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7.7%
18-2 2.3% 36.7% 33.7% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.5 4.6%
17-3 5.1% 30.1% 29.0% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 1.6%
16-4 8.8% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.0 6.6 0.2%
15-5 12.9% 20.9% 20.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.1%
14-6 15.7% 16.4% 16.4% 12.0 0.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.1
13-7 15.2% 13.1% 13.1% 12.1 0.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 13.2
12-8 14.0% 10.2% 10.2% 12.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 12.6
11-9 10.6% 6.9% 6.9% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.9
10-10 7.2% 5.0% 5.0% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.8
9-11 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-12 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.9% 14.7% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 85.1 0.2%