Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 124
Expected Predictive Rating +5.2 95
Pace 76.8 20
Improvement -6.4 355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 76 B- B C+ B C+
Defense C- 227 C+ C- C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 B- 61% 98 +1.7 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 227 B 42% 60 -0.4 200
Three Pointers 43% 138 C 34% 176 +1.2 139
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 129 B- +2.0 104
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 101
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 113 B 1.14 48 B 0.37 62
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 136
Freethrows B- 0.33 95 B- 75% 85 B 0.25 77
Total Offense B- +4.3 76

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 276 B 8.0% 38
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 350 C+ 4.4% 134
Three Pointers D 78% 298 C 0.9% 180
Total D 49% 312 B 4.3% 42

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 B- 54% 72 +2.1 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 40 C 39% 210 +2.3 336
Three Pointers 28% 365 D+ 36% 285 -5.4 5
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 C+ -0.8 147
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 139
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 291 C 1.03 179 C- 0.34 254
Turnovers C- 16.4% 207
Freethrows C+ 0.29 162 C- 73% 211 C+ 0.21 166
Total Defense C- -1.7 227

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 81 C+ 12.8% 101
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 22 D+ 3.0% 295
Three Pointers B+ 77% 25 C- 0.6% 236
Total A- 45% 15 B- 6.8% 85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 54 16.7 73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 178 0.19 235
Improvement -3.0 #322 -3.4 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 8% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 8% 5%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 55 - 8
Quad 36 - 410 - 11
Quad 411 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 75% +5  53% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D -4 F B- F+ A- +7 C+ B A
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  91% 2 - 0 A +21 A +11 A F A+ B+ +5 B B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 32 @SMU L 91 - 102 9% -9  1% 2 - 1 B- +7 B+ +8 A- A- C C +0 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 265 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 86% +11  97% 3 - 1 B +11 A +11 A+ A+ F C -1 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 89% +16  88% 4 - 1 B +10 A +13 B- A+ A C- -2 B+ F B
 Sun, Nov 23 171 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 63% -3  17% 4 - 2 C- -4 B- +5 B- C+ A F+ -8 C+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 83 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 34% -16  11% 4 - 3 D+ -6 F -16 F C+ D- A +10 B+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 80 George Washington W 96 - 95 34% +1  60% 5 - 3 B- +8 A+ +18 A A+ A- F -10 C B F
 Tue, Dec 2 286 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 88% +10  75% 6 - 3 A +22 B- +5 D+ A- D+ A+ +18 A A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 287 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 88% +13  98% 7 - 3 C+ +3 C- -0 A F F B +4 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 76 Akron W 115 - 100 32% +9  90% 8 - 3 A +23 A+ +23 A+ A- F+ C- -3 C- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 193 Drake W 81 - 72 77% +5  74% 9 - 3 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 F+ A A+ C -1 B+ F+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 161 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 49% -2  27% 10 - 3 2 - 0 B +9 A- +10 A+ F B C -1 D C- C
 Mon, Dec 29 128 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 63% +7  90% 11 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ F+ C D -6 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 106 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 33% -1  38% 12 - 3 4 - 0 B +11 B +7 F A+ B- B +4 B+ D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 120 Bradley W 86 - 66 61% +14  97% 13 - 3 5 - 0 A +20 A +12 A+ C B- A- +8 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 298 @Evansville W 79 - 69 76% +4  72% 14 - 3 6 - 0 B- +5 C +1 D C+ A B +4 D+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 161 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 71% +6  80% 15 - 3 7 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A+ D- B C -1 D- B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 79% +5  97% 16 - 3 8 - 0 C- -2 B- +4 C+ B+ C D -6 B- F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 193 @Drake L 90 - 101 57% -5  9% 16 - 4 8 - 1 D -10 C +1 C D+ B- F+ -9 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 90 @Northern Iowa L 76 - 81 27% -4  17% 16 - 5 8 - 2 C+ +4 A +13 C- A+ A- F+ -10 F C D
 Wed, Jan 28 99 Illinois St. L 65 - 70 52% -3  17% 16 - 6 8 - 3 C- -3 D- -7 F C+ A B +4 C+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 68 @Belmont L 86 - 103 21% -20  2% 16 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -6 A +13 D+ A+ C- F -18 C F F
 Tue, Feb 3 106 Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 74 56% +8  96% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B +8 C+ +3 C A+ C- B +5 A- C D
 Fri, Feb 6 128 @Southern Illinois W 91 - 81 40% +6  66% 18 - 7 10 - 4 A- +15 A+ +19 A+ F D+ D+ -4 C+ B- F
 Mon, Feb 9 90 Northern Iowa L 60 - 89 48% -13  0% 18 - 8 10 - 5 F -26 D -6 D+ C- A- F -22 F F F
 Thu, Feb 12 211 @Indiana St. W 74 - 72 60% +9  99% 19 - 8 11 - 5 C+ +2 B- +4 C A+ F C- -2 D- B B-
 Sun, Feb 15 68 Belmont L 70 - 87 40% +3  59% 19 - 9 11 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 C D D C- -2 B- B- C-
 Wed, Feb 18 99 @Illinois St. L 61 - 78 30% -9  19% 19 - 10 11 - 7 D -9 D+ -4 F+ A+ D+ D -6 F F+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 298 Evansville W 86 - 72 90%
 Sun, Mar 1 120 @Bradley L 80 - 83 38%
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +3 B- +4 A+ B- C+ C- -2 C B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- B C B- 39% 34% 43% C+ B- C+ B B C+ B- B- B C- B- C D+ C+ 46% 26% 28% C+ C+ D+ C C- C- C+ C- C+
1.15 61% 42% 34% +2 0 1.07 33% 1.1 .37 16% .33 75% .25 1.11 54% 39% 36% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .34 16% .29 73% .24
Nov
3		 Nebraska Omaha D C F F F 35% 12% 53% B- F C- A- B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A- B- C F C+ 50% 32% 18% B- C+ D+ A+ B A C C C
1.07 61% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.88 29% 1.2 .34 18% .51 91% .46 0.97 54% 39% 40% 0 -1 1.00 28% 0.8 .22 21% .29 72% .21
Nov
7		 Mississippi Valley A A+ F A- A 36% 6% 58% B A B- F F A+ D- F F B+ B- A B B 29% 43% 29% C+ B F A+ B- A+ F F F
1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23 0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33
Nov
11		 SMU B+ D A+ C A- 39% 17% 44% B+ A- D A+ A- C A+ B A+ C A C F A- 40% 35% 25% B+ A- F+ B- D+ C- F F F
1.12 52% 78% 33% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.6 .39 18% .36 75% .27 1.25 50% 43% 47% +3 -2 1.05 43% 1.0 .43 14% .43 83% .36
Nov
15		 Nicholls St. A C B A+ A+ 36% 16% 48% C A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ C A C- B- A- 47% 14% 39% F+ B F D- F A- A- F C+
1.31 63% 43% 57% +19 0 1.41 52% 1.3 .70 26% .54 83% .45 1.04 44% 38% 32% -8 +1 0.89 40% 1.2 .47 20% .21 85% .18
Nov
18		 Arkansas Little Rock A F A+ A+ B- 38% 13% 50% C B- C A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ C- B+ A- C+ A- 48% 40% 13% C B+ F D+ F B F+ F F
1.34 44% 83% 46% +9 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30 1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23
Nov
23		 Middle Tennessee B- A C C B 36% 25% 38% D B- D A+ C+ A A+ F A- F+ B D D+ B- 54% 27% 19% D C+ F F F D C- A+ C+
1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30 1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15
Nov
24		 McNeese St. F F D+ F F 26% 19% 55% D+ F C C+ C+ D- A F C- A C- C- A+ A- 42% 20% 38% C B+ A- A+ A+ D C+ A+ A
0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28 0.98 60% 42% 22% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15
Nov
25		 George Washington A+ C A+ B+ A 37% 27% 36% D+ A A+ C+ A+ A- B- B- B- F C+ C+ D- C 56% 10% 35% D+ C A D- B F F D- F
1.33 59% 63% 38% +9 -1 1.19 44% 1.1 .47 14% .30 74% .22 1.31 59% 40% 39% +3 +3 1.13 29% 1.2 .35 10% .50 79% .40
Dec
2		 Morehead St. B- C+ D- D- D 46% 6% 48% B+ D+ A C A- D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A A+ 49% 30% 21% C- A A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36 0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09
Dec
6		 Bellarmine C- A+ A A A 40% 13% 48% B A B- F F F F A+ D B C F C C+ 60% 4% 36% F C- A+ B A+ C+ C B C+
1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19 1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22
Dec
13		 Akron A+ B A+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% C+ A+ A+ C A- F+ A+ D- A- C- B F F D+ 51% 25% 25% C+ C- D+ A+ A+ F F C+ F+
1.40 64% 60% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.0 .44 22% .39 68% .26 1.21 55% 56% 44% +6 0 1.15 36% 0.7 .26 10% .34 76% .26
Dec
18		 Drake B C F D+ F 35% 15% 50% B+ F+ C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- A+ B- 26% 45% 30% A+ B+ F C+ F+ B F D F
1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42 1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30
Dec
21		 Valparaiso A- B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% C- A+ C- F F B A+ A+ A+ C B F D+ D- 36% 40% 24% B D B- D C- C A+ B- A
1.19 64% 54% 43% +11 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38 1.10 52% 48% 36% +2 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16
Dec
29		 Southern Illinois B+ A+ F A A+ 31% 21% 48% C- A+ D F F+ C A- A- A D A- B+ C- A- 58% 31% 11% D B+ F+ F F C+ B- D+ C+
1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26 1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20
Jan
1		 Illinois-Chicago B F F C- F 35% 29% 37% D- F A- A+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ B B A F B 42% 38% 21% A B+ F B D+ B F F F
1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32 1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36
Jan
4		 Bradley A A+ D A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B A+ C C C B- F A+ C- A- A+ A+ F A+ 41% 32% 27% B A+ C D D+ F A- F+ B
1.25 80% 33% 43% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 17% .25 93% .23 0.96 33% 11% 44% -15 -1 0.69 27% 1.2 .31 6% .25 81% .20
Jan
7		 Evansville C C- A+ F D- 40% 17% 42% B D D A+ C+ A A+ F+ A+ B F F A+ D+ 41% 35% 24% C+ D+ A- A+ A+ B- D- C- D-
1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29 0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25
Jan
10		 Valparaiso A- B B- A+ A+ 42% 15% 44% B A+ C F D- B B+ A A- C C+ A F D 53% 24% 24% F D- C+ B- B- A+ D+ F F
1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28 1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31
Jan
17		 Indiana St. B- C F B- C 42% 7% 51% A C+ B- A- B+ C A+ C- A+ D B- B+ D B- 58% 22% 20% B B- F+ F F D+ C+ A B-
1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26 1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15
Jan
21		 Drake C A+ A+ F C 32% 20% 48% C+ C D- C D+ B- A+ C A+ F+ F C- B D 28% 54% 18% A+ C+ D F F D- F F F
1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30 1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Northern Iowa A A- F D C 33% 25% 41% D C- A A+ A+ A- A A+ A+ F+ F D F F 55% 22% 22% C F C- B C D F A+ D
1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30 1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21
Jan
28		 Illinois St. D- C- F F F 46% 19% 35% A F F+ A+ C+ A C- A+ B B A+ F F B- 50% 20% 30% D- C+ A+ F D+ C+ B A+ A-
0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25 1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14
Jan
31		 Belmont A A+ F F D+ 35% 20% 46% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C F F D+ 44% 24% 33% A C F F F F F C+ F+
1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38 1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
3		 Illinois-Chicago C+ F A+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% B- C D+ A+ A+ C- A- D+ B+ B A+ A C- A- 38% 25% 36% B- A- A+ F C D F A+ D-
1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27 0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27
Feb
6		 Southern Illinois A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% A A+ F+ F F D+ A+ A A+ D+ F+ B B+ C 34% 34% 32% B+ C+ B- C+ B- F D F F
1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34 1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27
Feb
9		 Northern Iowa D F A+ F D+ 41% 17% 43% B- D+ D+ C C- A- F D+ F F D- F F F 48% 22% 29% B- F F C F F A+ F A+
0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12 1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03
Feb
12		 Indiana St. B- B A- F C 40% 21% 40% C+ C A+ A- A+ F A+ C A+ C- A+ F F F 38% 10% 52% B- D- F A+ B B- F A F
1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29 1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31
Feb
15		 Belmont F+ C+ F C C 24% 18% 58% C- C C F+ D D A F C+ C- C A+ F B 52% 8% 40% D- B- A- F B- C- D+ F F
0.96 58% 22% 34% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.8 .27 20% .36 62% .22 1.19 63% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 21% 1.5 .32 18% .33 85% .28
Feb
18		 Illinois St. D+ B- F+ F F 37% 29% 35% C F+ B+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+ D F+ D F F 48% 14% 38% F F F A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+
0.94 61% 29% 18% -10 -1 0.80 32% 1.4 .44 18% .26 57% .15 1.20 71% 43% 42% +11 +2 1.28 50% 0.8 .40 26% .23 45% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.1 22.6 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 17.1 11.8 28.9 3rd
4th 0.7 31.2 31.9 4th
5th 3.8 9.6 13.4 5th
6th 2.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.7 59.0 34.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 34.4% 11.1% 11.1% 12.0 0.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 30.6
12-8 59.0% 6.1% 6.1% 12.4 0.0 2.1 1.4 0.1 55.4
11-9 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.4
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 12.2 92.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 12.0 6.8 81.5 11.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.9%
Lose Out 2.9%