Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#247
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#289
Pace69.1#174
Improvement+2.9#25

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#195
First Shot-5.2#315
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#14
Layup/Dunks-3.1#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#246
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement+1.2#95

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#297
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#269
Layups/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows+0.4#164
Improvement+1.8#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 9.3% 14.1% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 15.4% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.0% 27.8% 36.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 83 - 16
Quad 47 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 70   Liberty L 63-83 12%     0 - 1 -12.0 -1.9 -10.9
  Nov 12, 2024 259   Cleveland St. L 67-75 65%     0 - 2 -16.4 -5.8 -10.8
  Nov 21, 2024 354   Lindenwood W 77-64 86%     1 - 2 -3.3 -5.6 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 76%     2 - 2 +16.3 +15.2 +4.8
  Nov 27, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 87-82 81%     3 - 2 -8.7 +3.6 -12.5
  Nov 29, 2024 97   @ DePaul L 70-89 11%     3 - 3 -10.4 +2.1 -13.1
  Dec 05, 2024 73   Drake L 60-66 19%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -1.3 -0.2 -2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 196   Central Michigan L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 64-85 3%    
  Dec 20, 2024 271   @ Western Michigan L 73-75 45%    
  Dec 29, 2024 71   @ Bradley L 66-82 8%    
  Jan 01, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 04, 2025 113   Northern Iowa L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 08, 2025 191   Indiana St. L 81-82 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 75-84 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 22, 2025 73   @ Drake L 60-75 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   Evansville W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 28, 2025 169   Southern Illinois L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 78-84 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 117   Murray St. L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 132   Belmont L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 16, 2025 243   @ Evansville L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 165   Missouri St. L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 71   Bradley L 69-79 20%    
  Mar 02, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-79 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 15.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.3 6.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 18.7 11th
12th 0.5 2.1 4.8 6.5 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 22.2 12th
Total 0.5 2.1 5.1 8.5 11.5 13.9 14.4 13.3 10.4 8.2 5.4 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 11.7% 11.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 5.2% 5.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 0.9% 5.0% 5.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-8 1.9% 3.5% 3.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 3.4% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
10-10 5.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
9-11 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.1
8-12 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-14 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-15 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
4-16 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-17 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-18 5.1% 5.1
1-19 2.1% 2.1
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%