Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#267
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#259
Pace68.7#169
Improvement+1.5#27

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#299
First Shot-0.9#215
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#351
Layup/Dunks+0.6#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#305
Freethrows-1.0#258
Improvement+0.9#47

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#229
First Shot-1.3#222
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#195
Layups/Dunks-0.8#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#81
Freethrows-1.5#291
Improvement+0.6#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.6% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 31 - 83 - 15
Quad 49 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 104   @ Toledo L 70-85 13%     0 - 1 -8.1 -9.7 +2.5
  Nov 13, 2022 285   Western Michigan W 81-65 64%     1 - 1 +6.7 -3.5 +9.4
  Nov 16, 2022 317   @ Chicago St. L 74-87 50%     1 - 2 -18.7 -1.2 -17.9
  Nov 19, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 68-64 80%     2 - 2 -10.6 -6.5 -3.8
  Nov 23, 2022 145   @ Samford L 49-79 18%     2 - 3 -25.9 -24.3 -2.1
  Nov 25, 2022 200   South Dakota St. L 50-61 35%     2 - 4 -12.5 -18.3 +4.9
  Nov 27, 2022 96   James Madison W 81-79 OT 16%     3 - 4 +6.9 +3.7 +3.0
  Dec 01, 2022 128   @ Belmont L 64-76 16%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -7.0 -5.2 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2022 159   Murray St. L 70-77 OT 38%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -9.4 -7.2 -2.0
  Dec 10, 2022 95   @ Mississippi L 61-98 11%     3 - 7 -29.3 -11.8 -14.5
  Dec 18, 2022 334   Elon W 71-66 76%     4 - 7 -8.1 -9.8 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2022 340   Stonehill W 77-67 78%     5 - 7 -3.8 -7.9 +3.3
  Dec 29, 2022 84   @ Drake L 63-68 10%     5 - 8 0 - 3 +3.8 -1.4 +5.0
  Jan 01, 2023 117   Indiana St. L 50-68 30%     5 - 9 0 - 4 -18.0 -20.6 +1.8
  Jan 04, 2023 160   Northern Iowa L 67-69 38%     5 - 10 0 - 5 -4.4 -5.4 +0.9
  Jan 07, 2023 89   @ Bradley L 66-88 10%     5 - 11 0 - 6 -13.7 +4.8 -20.4
  Jan 10, 2023 128   Belmont L 59-74 31%     5 - 12 0 - 7 -15.4 -15.3 -0.2
  Jan 14, 2023 341   @ Evansville W 76-69 62%     6 - 12 1 - 7 -1.8 +0.9 -2.7
  Jan 17, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 76-66 60%     7 - 12 2 - 7 +1.8 +2.1 -0.1
  Jan 21, 2023 234   @ Illinois St. W 71-51 33%     8 - 12 3 - 7 +19.0 +5.3 +15.6
  Jan 25, 2023 160   @ Northern Iowa L 66-77 21%     8 - 13 3 - 8 -7.9 -4.2 -3.9
  Jan 28, 2023 341   Evansville W 81-69 80%     9 - 13 4 - 8 -2.3 +0.3 -3.0
  Feb 01, 2023 136   @ Missouri St. L 67-76 OT 17%     9 - 14 4 - 9 -4.5 -3.2 -1.2
  Feb 04, 2023 84   Drake L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 08, 2023 117   @ Indiana St. L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 234   Illinois St. W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 14, 2023 130   Southern Illinois L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 19, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 89   Bradley L 62-70 22%    
  Feb 26, 2023 159   @ Murray St. L 65-74 20%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.7 8th
9th 0.4 6.3 12.3 7.6 1.3 0.0 27.9 9th
10th 5.2 22.2 24.8 8.7 1.0 0.0 61.9 10th
11th 4.3 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 9.5 26.0 31.5 21.1 9.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.4% 0.4
9-11 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 9.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-13 21.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.0
6-14 31.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 31.4
5-15 26.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 26.0
4-16 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.5% 0.3% 16.0 0.3