Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#204
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#244
Pace67.0#235
Improvement+1.6#66

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#241
First Shot+0.7#159
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#328
Layup/Dunks+2.3#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#112
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement+1.8#33

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot-2.1#248
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#50
Layups/Dunks-3.4#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 26.6% 52.3% 23.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 52.9% 23.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 17.3% 4.5% 18.9%
First Four0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 2.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 11.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 48 - 513 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 117   Toledo L 61-69 42%     0 - 1 -7.9 -12.0 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2021 252   Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 OT 72%     0 - 2 -11.9 -11.7 +0.1
  Nov 17, 2021 95   @ Stanford L 60-74 17%     0 - 3 -5.5 -10.7 +5.7
  Nov 22, 2021 149   Jacksonville St. W 78-70 38%     1 - 3 +9.3 +5.8 +3.5
  Nov 23, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina L 61-64 54%     1 - 4 -5.9 -10.4 +4.4
  Nov 24, 2021 168   Tulane W 68-64 43%     2 - 4 +3.9 -0.4 +4.5
  Dec 02, 2021 58   @ Drake L 60-73 11%    
  Dec 05, 2021 296   @ Western Michigan W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 11, 2021 223   Charlotte W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 20, 2021 260   Eastern Michigan W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 22, 2021 332   William & Mary W 74-61 88%    
  Dec 28, 2021 242   Prairie View W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 02, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 05, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 08, 2022 154   Southern Illinois W 64-63 52%    
  Jan 11, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-72 7%    
  Jan 15, 2022 93   Missouri St. L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 19, 2022 112   Northern Iowa L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 26, 2022 213   Bradley W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois L 60-66 30%    
  Feb 01, 2022 245   Evansville W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 174   Indiana St. W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 16, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 58-69 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 245   @ Evansville L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 58   Drake L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 213   @ Bradley L 63-66 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 5.3 3rd
4th 0.4 2.4 3.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.2 6.2 2.5 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.7 5.8 2.1 0.3 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 6.2 6.0 1.9 0.1 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 4.6 1.0 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 10.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.1 6.0 9.1 13.0 14.1 13.9 12.5 10.3 6.6 5.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 67.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 43.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2
13-5 7.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 21.2% 21.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.4% 9.0% 9.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
11-7 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
10-8 6.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
9-9 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-10 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.3
7-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-13 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-14 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 6.0% 6.0
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 99.0 0.0%