Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#209
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Pace65.7#279
Improvement+3.6#18

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#266
First Shot-5.6#324
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#75
Layup/Dunks-8.5#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#249
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+1.3#76

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
First Shot+1.7#116
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#264
Layups/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement+2.2#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 18.9% 30.7% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.2% 22.4% 14.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.9% 14.9% 22.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 48 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 326 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 81%     1 - 0 -9.4 -10.7 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 7 17 @Kentucky L 59-107 3%     1 - 1 -27.9 -7.8 -16.9
  Wed, Nov 12 264 Nicholls St. W 68-63 71%     2 - 1 -3.7 -0.3 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 16 277 Bryant W 68-50 73%     3 - 1 +8.6 +0.0 +10.5
  Wed, Nov 19 299 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 56%     4 - 1 +10.4 +13.8 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 26 306 Southern Indiana L 56-64 77%     4 - 2 -18.7 -20.3 +1.6
  Sat, Nov 29 275 Western Michigan W 84-55 73%     5 - 2 +19.7 +13.0 +9.0
  Tue, Dec 2 79 @Marquette L 72-75 OT 11%     5 - 3 +7.2 -1.5 +9.0
  Sat, Dec 13 100 UNC Wilmington L 65-70 32%    
  Tue, Dec 16 57 @Northwestern L 62-77 8%    
  Sun, Dec 21 110 Murray St. L 73-77 36%    
  Mon, Dec 29 92 @Northern Iowa L 57-69 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 145 @Southern Illinois L 66-73 27%    
  Sun, Jan 4 174 Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 101 Illinois St. L 66-71 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 110 @Murray St. L 70-80 18%    
  Tue, Jan 13 77 @Belmont L 65-78 11%    
  Sat, Jan 17 92 Northern Iowa L 60-66 31%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 Southern Illinois L 69-70 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 77 Belmont L 68-75 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 193 @Indiana St. L 70-74 36%    
  Tue, Feb 3 122 @Bradley L 63-72 21%    
  Fri, Feb 6 291 Evansville W 70-63 74%    
  Mon, Feb 9 114 @Drake L 61-70 20%    
  Thu, Feb 12 101 @Illinois St. L 63-74 16%    
  Sun, Feb 15 193 Indiana St. W 73-71 58%    
  Wed, Feb 18 122 Bradley L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Feb 25 114 Drake L 64-67 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 @Evansville W 67-66 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 5.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.8 6.9 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 19.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.5 6.7 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 21.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.8 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 3.4 6.3 9.6 12.3 14.1 14.0 11.9 9.9 6.9 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 76.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 52.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 21.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 14.7% 14.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 8.2% 8.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 8.8% 8.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 2.8% 4.8% 4.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-9 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6
10-10 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
9-11 9.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 11.9
7-13 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.9
6-14 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 14.1
5-15 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-16 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-17 6.3% 6.3
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%