Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#217
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#189
Pace72.0#94
Improvement-5.2#362

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#168
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#129
Layup/Dunks+0.6#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-2.1#326

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#285
First Shot-5.9#348
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#35
Layups/Dunks-3.0#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#255
Freethrows-0.8#245
Improvement-3.0#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 14.1% 16.5% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.3% 20.0% 11.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 23.4% 21.4% 31.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 96 - 15
Quad 45 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 107   Yale W 91-79 34%     1 - 0 +13.0 +7.6 +4.3
  Nov 12, 2024 66   @ Northwestern L 74-83 9%     1 - 1 +3.0 +6.6 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 114   James Madison L 81-99 27%     1 - 2 -14.7 +2.7 -16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 143   La Salle W 96-83 34%     2 - 2 +14.0 +17.0 -4.0
  Nov 23, 2024 159   East Carolina L 55-72 37%     2 - 3 -16.8 -12.0 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 113   Northern Iowa L 56-83 37%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -26.6 -9.2 -21.1
  Dec 08, 2024 319   Dartmouth W 80-71 80%    
  Dec 15, 2024 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 20, 2024 123   @ Seattle L 70-78 21%    
  Dec 29, 2024 170   @ Illinois St. L 72-77 31%    
  Jan 01, 2025 73   Drake L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 77-85 25%    
  Jan 07, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 71   Bradley L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 15, 2025 117   Murray St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 22, 2025 243   @ Evansville L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 69-83 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 84-83 54%    
  Feb 05, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 11, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 16, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 73   @ Drake L 62-76 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   Evansville W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 69-79 21%    
  Mar 02, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 79-75 65%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.1 1.1 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.3 1.5 0.2 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.3 2.3 0.2 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 5.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 15.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 3.0 4.6 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 15.3 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.3 9.0 12.2 13.4 13.7 12.1 10.2 7.3 5.1 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0
16-4 59.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 11.6% 11.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.8% 10.4% 10.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.6% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-8 3.0% 7.3% 7.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-9 5.1% 3.7% 3.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
10-10 7.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.2
9-11 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-12 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-13 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-14 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-16 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-17 6.3% 6.3
2-18 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
1-19 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%