Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #136
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #149
Pace 67.0 #228
Improvement +7.3 #5

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 D+ B C- C+ C
Defense #113 B- D+ B+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.06 #292 -0.2 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.74 #199 +0.4 #153
Three Pointers 36% #278 0.97 #243 -3.3 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #267 -3.1 #265
Freethrows 0.33 #109 73% #171 0.24 #114
Second Chance 36.4% #37 1.06 #127 0.39 #46
Turnovers 18.3% #267
Total Offense -0.5 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #271 1.10 #107 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.69 #70 +1.7 #58
Three Pointers 47% #33 0.97 #110 -2.0 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.5 #100
Freethrows 0.31 #207 75% #327 0.23 #241
Second Chance 36.5% #347 0.97 #94 0.35 #285
Turnovers 20.5% #27
Total Defense +2.0 #113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #186 0.4% #198
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #290 -5.2% #78
Possession Length 17.7 #226 17.5 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #128 0.20 #259
Improvement +2.4 #63 +4.9 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.5% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 61.2% 80.5% 49.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 99.6% 90.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 6.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.3% 6.5% 4.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 34 - 88 - 14
Quad 47 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 262 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 83% +6  1 - 0 +11 +2 C- A+ F +7 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 176 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 49% -3  1 - 1 -1 +3 B D F -4 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 356 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 88% -2  2 - 1 -7 -4 F A+ D- -2 D C- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 96 High Point L 80 - 90 35% -6  2 - 2 -4 +4 C- A+ D- -8 C- C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 332 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 87% +11  3 - 2 +0 +6 B- C- D -7 F C C+
 Wed, Nov 26 216 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 56% -13  3 - 3 -14 +3 D- A- C -17 D F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 322 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 91% -5  3 - 4 -14 -19 F D F +5 C D+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 79 @Yale L 66 - 80 21% -4  3 - 5 -4 -1 F C- B -4 A+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @Belmont L 84 - 87 19% +3  3 - 6 0 - 1 +8 +22 A- B A+ -14 F D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 110 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 54% -2  3 - 7 0 - 2 -5 -6 F B+ B+ -0 D+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 156 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 45% +2  3 - 8 -9 +1 C+ D- D -9 B- B- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 105 Murray St. L 77 - 81 51% +1  3 - 9 0 - 3 -3 -2 D B D- -1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 159 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 45% +1  3 - 10 0 - 4 -4 -3 D B F -2 B C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 130 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 60% +8  4 - 10 1 - 4 +12 +7 D- A+ A +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 89 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 24% +1  5 - 10 2 - 4 +13 -3 F A+ F+ +16 A+ C C+
 Tue, Jan 13 110 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  6 - 10 3 - 4 +15 +12 A- B- A+ +3 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 166 Drake W 74 - 67 68% +7  7 - 10 4 - 4 +4 +3 F+ A B- +1 B B+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 286 Evansville W 76 - 49 86% +13  8 - 10 5 - 4 +17 +3 C B A- +15 A B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 120 @Bradley W 85 - 70 34% +8  9 - 10 6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ C A +1 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 189 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 73% +9  10 - 10 7 - 4 -3 +4 B+ D C- -7 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 37% -6  11 - 10 8 - 4 +7 +6 D- A+ F +1 C A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 105 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 29% -8  11 - 11 8 - 5 +0 -3 D- C+ C+ +4 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 74 Belmont L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 166 @Drake L 71 - 72 46%
 Sun, Feb 15 89 Illinois St. L 68 - 69 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 286 @Evansville W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 159 Valparaiso W 71 - 66 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 120 Bradley W 74 - 72 55%
 Sun, Mar 1 189 @Indiana St. W 74 - 73 51%
Totals 15 - 14 12 - 8 +2 +0 D+ B C- +2 B- D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.9 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 9.1 5.7 0.8 17.8 2nd
3rd 1.3 10.8 9.3 0.8 22.2 3rd
4th 0.7 8.6 11.7 1.6 22.5 4th
5th 0.1 4.1 11.5 2.6 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 1.5 6.9 2.2 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 1.6 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.3 1.3 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 5.0 13.3 23.7 27.3 20.3 8.0 1.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 53.6% 0.9    0.2 0.6 0.1
14-6 18.4% 1.5    0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.7% 6.5% 6.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.6
14-6 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.3
13-7 20.3% 7.4% 7.4% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 18.8
12-8 27.3% 6.4% 6.4% 13.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 25.5
11-9 23.7% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 22.8
10-10 13.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.3 13.0
9-11 5.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-12 0.8% 0.8
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 13.1 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.5%