Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 107
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 133
Pace 66.8 233
Improvement +10.9 1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 158 C- B C- C+ C
Defense B- 69 B- C- A- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 D+ 55% 265 +0.4 162
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 87 C 38% 163 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 35% 299 C- 33% 231 -3.5 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 203 C- -1.9 243
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance B+ 36.4% 36 C 1.03 173 B 0.37 61
Turnovers C- 18.0% 260
Freethrows C+ 0.31 155 C 73% 173 C+ 0.23 149
Total Offense C +0.1 158

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 44 D 13.5% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 95 C 5.5% 222
Three Pointers C 85% 184 C 1.0% 209
Total B- 59% 95 D- 7.3% 330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 297 B- 55% 101 -3.4 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 282 B+ 33% 26 -2.1 37
Three Pointers 48% 19 B- 32% 88 +2.2 290
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 192 B -3.3 59
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 69
Second Chance D- 34.7% 326 B- 0.97 99 C- 0.34 249
Turnovers A- 20.7% 20
Freethrows C 0.30 179 D 75% 312 C 0.22 206
Total Defense B- +3.9 69

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 66% 365 B 15.0% 54
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 352 C 5.1% 154
Three Pointers F 93% 184 C 0.9% 209
Total F 73% 363 C+ 6.5% 105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 228 17.5 210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 117 0.19 229
Improvement +3.5 #35 +7.4 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 14% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 98% 100% 90%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round13% 14% 9%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 35 - 79 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 254 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 87% +6  60% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C +0 C A F A +9 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 158 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 54% -3  28% 1 - 1 C -0 C +0 B D- F C -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 352 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 91% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 D C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 93 High Point L 80 - 90 43% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -4 C +1 D+ A+ D- D -5 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 342 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 93% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B- D F+ D+ -4 F C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 178 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 59% -13  0% 3 - 3 D- -12 C +1 D- A D+ F -14 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 318 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 93% -5  8% 3 - 4 D- -14 F -22 F D F A- +8 C D B
 Sun, Dec 7 81 @Yale L 66 - 80 28% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -4 D -4 F C- B C -1 A+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 69 @Belmont L 84 - 87 25% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B +8 A+ +19 A- B+ A+ F -12 F D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 90 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 54% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 F+ -8 F B+ B+ B +4 D+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 177 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 59% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 D+ -3 C+ F+ F+ D- -7 B- B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 124 Murray St. L 77 - 81 67% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D- B F+ C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 160 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 55% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -4 D- -6 D B F C+ +1 B B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 128 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 68% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +12 B- +5 F+ A+ A A +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 99 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 35% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -6 F A+ F A+ +18 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 90 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A B A+ A- +8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 193 Drake W 74 - 67 80% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F A C+ B +3 B- B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 299 Evansville W 76 - 49 91% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A- +16 C +0 C B A- A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 120 @Bradley W 85 - 70 43% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C A- B +4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 212 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 83% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -4 C +0 B D- C- D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 128 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 45% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +7 B- +4 F+ A+ F B- +3 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 124 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 44% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 69 Belmont L 62 - 68 46% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -1 D- -7 C F C+ B+ +6 C A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 193 @Drake W 80 - 70 62% +4  76% 12 - 12 9 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C- C- A- B- +3 C C- A-
 Sun, Feb 15 99 Illinois St. W 83 - 56 57% +13  79% 13 - 12 10 - 6 A+ +29 B +7 A A+ C A+ +21 A+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 18 299 @Evansville W 84 - 46 80% +16  97% 14 - 12 11 - 6 A+ +33 A+ +15 A+ B- F A+ +22 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 160 Valparaiso W 72 - 65 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 120 Bradley W 73 - 69 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 212 @Indiana St. W 74 - 70 64%
Totals 16 - 13 13 - 7 +4 C +0 A+ C- C B- +4 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 42% 46% 35% C C- B+ C B C- C+ C C+ B- B- B+ B- B 34% 17% 48% C B- D- B- C- A- C D C
1.09 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.0 .37 18% .31 73% .23 1.03 55% 33% 32% -3 0 0.95 35% 1.0 .34 21% .30 75% .23
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C F D A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A C C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A F+ A+ B+ B+ D C+ D
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C B- A+ C- B+ 31% 10% 58% C B C- F D- F B+ A+ A+ C D- F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F A- F A+ F D+ F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C- F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D 33% 30% 37% D+ D F+ B C- B- D C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C A+ D+ F C- 33% 23% 44% D D+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+ C- A D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D+ A- C+ B F F+ F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C+ C A+ C- C+ 60% 13% 27% A- B- C+ F D F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F A+ F+ 38% 9% 53% F F F A C+ B- D+ A+ A-
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C F A+ B+ F 60% 10% 31% A D- A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A- F D A+ D- C- 43% 10% 47% F D+ F F F B D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -8 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- F D F C+ D+ C+ A- D+ A+ C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C D+ F+ D B A A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D F F+ A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F B+ F C- B B- A+ A C A A+ D+ A+ 35% 27% 38% A- A+ D- F F C- F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C B+ A+ D A+ B- F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D+ F F A+ D+ A- F D F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa F+ D F F F 48% 16% 36% B F B+ B B+ B+ D- F F+ B B- D F D- 21% 26% 52% A+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ F D+
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte D+ F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% C+ C+ A- F F+ F+ B D C+ D- B B- D B 45% 12% 43% D B- F A+ B C- F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% +1 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D 42% 38% 21% F+ D- A D+ B F+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D- B+ B+ F D+ 36% 36% 29% F D B- B B F B+ F+ B- C+ A A+ F B 39% 34% 26% C B C+ B- B- B F F F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B- F F F F 51% 15% 34% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F+ A- A B F B- C- 41% 25% 33% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F A- A+ A+ F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C A+ D B C- C+ F F F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A- F A 45% 27% 29% C- A F+ A+ B A+ B+ F C- A- C+ A- A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F D+ F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A A C+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B- C A+ B+ C+ C- A+ B
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C A A- F C 43% 29% 27% C- C C+ B+ B A- A- F C+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -11 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B- D C A- D A C B F F A C 34% 19% 47% D+ C B+ F C+ C- F+ B- D-
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C A+ B 45% 24% 31% C+ B B- F D- C- A B A+ D+ F F C+ F+ 43% 7% 50% C F+ F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois B- C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F D- F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C F+ 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ B- C+ A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A D B- D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- B- A+ F C+ 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C+ A F+ B+ B+ D+ A+ F D+ 21% 9% 70% A- C D+ A+ A A+ D A+ B-
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19
Feb
12		 Drake B+ C+ D A+ C+ 30% 37% 33% F C- B- F+ C- A- C+ A+ A+ B- B A+ F+ C+ 33% 17% 50% D+ C C+ D- C- A- C+ F D+
1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29 1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24
Feb
15		 Illinois St. B A- A+ F A 48% 33% 19% C+ A A+ B- A+ C F F F A+ A D- A+ A+ 22% 17% 61% B- A+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A+
1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07 0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09
Feb
18		 Evansville A+ B D+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% C- A+ A D B- F F A F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% C- A+ A- F C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08 0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 1.0 37.0 32.7 70.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 10.4 5.9 16.3 3rd
4th 0.3 8.4 8.7 4th
5th 1.5 0.8 2.3 5th
6th 1.5 1.5 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.8 20.6 42.9 32.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 0.1    0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 32.7% 16.3% 16.3% 12.1 0.3 4.0 1.0 0.0 27.4
13-7 42.9% 12.8% 12.8% 12.5 0.0 2.8 2.5 0.2 37.4
12-8 20.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 18.9
11-9 3.8% 7.6% 7.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 12.5 87.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 12.1 5.1 75.6 19.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.9%
Lose Out 0.9%