Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#253
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#248
Pace73.6#72
Improvement-0.2#227

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#297
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#311
Layup/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#241
Freethrows+1.7#78
Improvement-0.2#270

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#197
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#311
Layups/Dunks-6.0#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#10
Freethrows-2.0#300
Improvement+0.0#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.7 15.6
.500 or above 24.6% 52.7% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 35.9% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.4% 4.3% 17.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 32 - 73 - 13
Quad 410 - 512 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 171   Loyola Chicago L 63-70 45%     0 - 1 -10.1 -11.2 +1.3
  Nov 14, 2022 221   Jacksonville St. W 67-60 56%     1 - 1 +0.8 -15.4 +15.6
  Nov 19, 2022 177   @ Fordham L 65-79 24%     1 - 2 -11.3 +0.1 -12.2
  Nov 21, 2022 345   Stonehill W 77-71 79%     2 - 2 -6.9 -7.8 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2022 353   Holy Cross W 89-66 82%     3 - 2 +8.6 +4.1 +3.2
  Nov 26, 2022 362   @ Green Bay W 78-64 82%     4 - 2 -0.1 +0.3 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2022 112   Missouri St. L 51-66 30%     4 - 3 -14.1 -18.6 +3.9
  Dec 03, 2022 71   @ Drake L 62-77 7%    
  Dec 10, 2022 312   @ Western Michigan W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 13, 2022 259   Prairie View W 72-69 63%    
  Dec 18, 2022 257   Northeastern W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 20, 2022 90   @ Northwestern L 58-71 11%    
  Dec 28, 2022 280   Illinois St. W 70-66 66%    
  Dec 31, 2022 115   @ Bradley L 62-73 15%    
  Jan 04, 2023 140   Belmont L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 07, 2023 133   @ Indiana St. L 71-81 17%    
  Jan 10, 2023 71   Drake L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 14, 2023 98   @ Murray St. L 65-78 13%    
  Jan 17, 2023 276   @ Valparaiso L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 21, 2023 174   Northern Iowa L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 24, 2023 112   @ Missouri St. L 61-72 15%    
  Jan 29, 2023 115   Bradley L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 01, 2023 280   @ Illinois St. L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 04, 2023 315   Evansville W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 08, 2023 120   @ Southern Illinois L 57-68 16%    
  Feb 11, 2023 140   @ Belmont L 69-79 20%    
  Feb 15, 2023 133   Indiana St. L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 19, 2023 276   Valparaiso W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 23, 2023 315   @ Evansville W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 26, 2023 120   Southern Illinois L 60-65 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.8 2.5 0.2 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.8 7.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 18.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.7 6.5 6.7 2.7 0.3 19.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 16.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.7 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.5 6.7 10.8 13.5 15.1 14.4 12.4 9.2 6.0 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 92.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 48.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 23.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 6.0% 6.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 2.0% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
10-10 6.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
9-11 9.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.0
8-12 12.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.3
7-13 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
6-14 15.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.1
5-15 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-16 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-17 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-18 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%