Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#302
Pace69.3#189
Improvement-0.3#204

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#187
First Shot-3.8#288
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#32
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#289
Freethrows+2.0#74
Improvement+1.0#104

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#221
First Shot+0.3#158
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#316
Layups/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#285
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement-1.3#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 3.8% 7.8% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 12.7% 22.8% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.7% 10.2% 24.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 296 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 77%     1 - 0 +9.7 +2.1 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 7 155 @Oregon St. L 73-76 28%     1 - 1 +0.4 +2.9 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 336 @Chicago St. W 67-63 69%     2 - 1 -3.7 -2.9 -0.4
  Thu, Nov 20 107 High Point L 80-90 26%     2 - 2 -5.9 +2.3 -7.8
  Sat, Nov 22 341 Southern Indiana W 84-73 80%     3 - 2 -0.4 +3.9 -4.8
  Wed, Nov 26 184 @Robert Morris L 74-88 35%     3 - 3 -12.6 +4.1 -17.2
  Wed, Dec 3 352 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 89%     3 - 4 -16.8 -19.1 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 76 @Yale L 66-80 12%     3 - 5 -3.6 -1.7 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 13 69 @Belmont L 84-87 11%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +8.0 +23.7 -16.0
  Wed, Dec 17 96 Northern Iowa L 54-60 31%     3 - 7 0 - 2 -3.4 -5.2 +0.9
  Sun, Dec 21 185 @Charlotte L 76-88 OT 35%     3 - 8 -10.7 +0.9 -11.3
  Thu, Jan 1 99 Murray St. L 79-84 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 216 @Valparaiso L 71-73 43%    
  Wed, Jan 7 128 Southern Illinois L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 85 @Illinois St. L 67-79 13%    
  Tue, Jan 13 96 @Northern Iowa L 60-71 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 Drake L 71-72 47%    
  Tue, Jan 20 256 Evansville W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 24 108 @Bradley L 68-77 19%    
  Tue, Jan 27 200 Indiana St. W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 128 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 99 @Murray St. L 76-87 16%    
  Fri, Feb 6 69 Belmont L 74-82 24%    
  Thu, Feb 12 142 @Drake L 68-75 27%    
  Sun, Feb 15 85 Illinois St. L 70-76 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 256 @Evansville L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 216 Valparaiso W 74-70 65%    
  Tue, Feb 24 108 Bradley L 71-74 38%    
  Sun, Mar 1 200 @Indiana St. L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.4 4.4 1.3 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.5 7.7 4.9 1.1 0.1 19.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.7 7.5 4.3 0.9 0.1 20.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.9 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 17.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.7 4.0 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.1 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.1 6.5 10.6 13.6 15.1 15.2 12.5 9.5 6.2 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 32.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 14.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 16.1% 16.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-9 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
10-10 6.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
9-11 9.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-12 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.4
7-13 15.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.2
6-14 15.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.0
5-15 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-16 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-17 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%