Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #207
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #309
Pace 68.9 #196
Improvement +0.7 #140

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #209 D B B- D C
Defense #209 C F D- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.04 #313 -1.0 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.75 #178 +0.5 #158
Three Pointers 37% #266 0.94 #261 -3.4 #292
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #280 -3.9 #280
Freethrows 18.8 #103 76% #85 14.3 #87
Second Chance 37.2% #32 0.99 #244 0.37 #80
Turnovers 18.7% #292
Total Offense -1.7 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.16 #169 +1.5 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.55 #7 +2.5 #30
Three Pointers 46% #65 1.06 #240 -3.3 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #154 +0.6 #156
Freethrows 20.2 #312 77% #339 15.6 #333
Second Chance 39.0% #358 0.99 #121 0.39 #315
Turnovers 19.2% #52
Total Defense -1.0 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 0.1% #170
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #298 -1.5% #153
Possession Length 17.7 #223 17.2 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #136 0.24 #344
Improvement +0.0 #181 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 1.0% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 4.8% 8.9% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.1% 16.0% 33.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 41.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 32 - 103 - 18
Quad 46 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 284 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 76%     5.6   1 - 0 +10.0 +2.0 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 7 197 @Oregon St. L 73-76 37%     -3.3   1 - 1 -2.4 +0.9 -3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 349 @Chicago St. W 67-63 74%     -1.6   2 - 1 -5.4 -3.9 -1.1
  Thu, Nov 20 93 High Point L 80-90 20%     -6.1   2 - 2 -4.0 +3.3 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 22 329 Southern Indiana W 84-73 77%     11.3   3 - 2 +0.6 +4.5 -4.4
  Wed, Nov 26 202 @Robert Morris L 74-88 38%     -12.8   3 - 3 -13.6 +2.9 -17.0
  Wed, Dec 3 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 84%     -4.6   3 - 4 -14.5 -20.4 +6.0
  Sun, Dec 7 77 @Yale L 66-80 12%     -3.9   3 - 5 -3.7 -1.1 -3.6
  Sat, Dec 13 82 @Belmont L 84-87 12%     2.6   3 - 6 0 - 1 +7.1 +23.4 -16.7
  Wed, Dec 17 91 Northern Iowa L 54-60 28%     -1.5   3 - 7 0 - 2 -2.8 -4.2 +0.6
  Sun, Dec 21 177 @Charlotte L 76-88 OT 33%     8.9   3 - 8 -10.3 +0.3 -10.3
  Thu, Jan 1 92 Murray St. L 77-81 29%     0.7   3 - 9 0 - 3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2
  Sun, Jan 4 205 @Valparaiso L 59-66 38%     1.2   3 - 10 0 - 4 -6.7 -4.0 -3.6
  Wed, Jan 7 123 Southern Illinois L 73-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 72 @Illinois St. L 65-79 10%    
  Tue, Jan 13 91 @Northern Iowa L 58-70 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 149 Drake L 70-71 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 258 Evansville W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Jan 24 121 @Bradley L 68-76 21%    
  Tue, Jan 27 186 Indiana St. W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 123 @Southern Illinois L 70-78 22%    
  Tue, Feb 3 92 @Murray St. L 74-86 14%    
  Fri, Feb 6 82 Belmont L 74-81 27%    
  Thu, Feb 12 149 @Drake L 68-74 29%    
  Sun, Feb 15 72 Illinois St. L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 258 @Evansville L 70-71 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 205 Valparaiso W 72-69 61%    
  Tue, Feb 24 121 Bradley L 71-73 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 186 @Indiana St. L 72-76 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.3 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 6.9 9.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 23.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.0 9.0 8.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 4.1 5.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 16.1 11th
Total 0.3 1.6 4.9 9.6 14.4 17.5 17.2 13.8 9.8 6.0 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 28.6% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 11.6% 11.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
9-11 6.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.0
8-12 9.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.7
7-13 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
6-14 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.1
5-15 17.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.5
4-16 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
3-17 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
2-18 4.9% 4.9
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%