Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #154
Pace 72.8 #81
Improvement +0.2 #172

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #194 C C- C+ C D-
Defense #90 C+ B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.17 #156 +2.9 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 1.00 #8 +8.1 #2
Three Pointers 26% #364 0.84 #336 -10.1 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #157 +0.8 #157
Freethrows 17.2 #201 67% #314 11.6 #240
Second Chance 30.5% #197 1.17 #60 0.36 #109
Turnovers 16.6% #176
Total Offense -1.0 #194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.11 #124 +2.7 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #140 0.84 #298 -1.3 #275
Three Pointers 43% #116 0.95 #112 +0.3 #174
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #128 +1.7 #126
Freethrows 15.3 #81 69% #57 10.5 #307
Second Chance 29.3% #129 1.02 #151 0.30 #132
Turnovers 17.3% #142
Total Defense +2.9 #90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #304 -0.7% #111
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #128 -2.5% #131
Possession Length 15.8 #57 17.5 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.14 #91
Improvement -4.1 #356 +4.2 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.6% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 48.1% 55.8% 29.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.3% 60.4% 32.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.7% 3.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round4.0% 4.6% 2.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 77 - 15
Quad 49 - 115 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 334 UMKC W 101-78 92%     10.5   1 - 0 +9.3 +16.6 -9.2
  Wed, Nov 12 87 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 23%     0.8   1 - 1 +4.7 +3.3 +1.9
  Mon, Nov 17 151 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 45%     -4.1   1 - 2 -3.9 +5.7 -8.9
  Sun, Nov 23 278 Delaware W 79-59 79%     10.5   2 - 2 +13.4 +7.0 +7.0
  Mon, Nov 24 112 UAB L 73-81 43%     -4.7   2 - 3 -4.2 +1.5 -5.6
  Wed, Nov 26 76 @Memphis L 58-74 20%     -11.3   2 - 4 -5.4 -6.9 +1.5
  Sat, Nov 29 302 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 88%     0.8   3 - 4 -2.0 +3.8 -4.9
  Wed, Dec 3 83 @High Point W 86-84 22%     -3.3   4 - 4 +12.0 +10.2 +1.7
  Wed, Dec 10 239 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 81%     15.2   5 - 4 +21.5 +8.5 +13.1
  Sat, Dec 13 114 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 32%     -1.6   5 - 5 -2.3 -4.1 +3.5
  Thu, Dec 18 82 Illinois St. L 68-75 42%     0.3   5 - 6 0 - 1 -3.0 -3.0 +0.0
  Sun, Dec 21 115 @Bradley L 69-73 32%     -3.9   5 - 7 0 - 2 +2.6 -1.4 +4.1
  Mon, Dec 29 91 @Murray St. L 81-84 24%     -7.4   5 - 8 0 - 3 +6.1 +5.3 +1.1
  Thu, Jan 1 189 Valparaiso W 75-70 74%     5.0   6 - 8 1 - 3 +0.0 -3.5 +3.2
  Sun, Jan 4 71 @Belmont W 68-67 19%     0.4   7 - 8 2 - 3 +12.0 -0.5 +12.5
  Wed, Jan 7 186 @Illinois-Chicago L 57-70 52%     -8.1   7 - 9 2 - 4 -11.7 -9.8 -3.0
  Wed, Jan 14 170 Drake W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 71 Belmont L 77-80 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 189 @Valparaiso W 71-70 53%    
  Sun, Jan 25 263 @Evansville W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 95 Northern Iowa L 63-64 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 186 Illinois-Chicago W 76-69 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 82 @Illinois St. L 69-77 23%    
  Fri, Feb 6 91 Murray St. L 80-81 46%    
  Mon, Feb 9 188 @Indiana St. W 75-74 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 263 Evansville W 76-65 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 115 Bradley W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 170 @Drake L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 95 @Northern Iowa L 60-67 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 188 Indiana St. W 78-71 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.6 1.9 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.3 7.7 3.2 0.3 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.9 9.5 4.2 0.4 24.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.8 7.2 2.4 0.2 18.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.3 1.4 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.8 8.8 13.9 17.6 18.0 15.5 10.1 5.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 46.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.5% 18.8% 18.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-6 2.2% 13.1% 13.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9
13-7 5.9% 10.3% 10.3% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.3
12-8 10.1% 6.5% 6.5% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-9 15.5% 5.9% 5.9% 12.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 14.6
10-10 18.0% 3.9% 3.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 17.3
9-11 17.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.2
8-12 13.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.1 0.1 13.7
7-13 8.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 96.0 0.0%