Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#130
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#89
Pace61.9#329
Improvement-0.2#217

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#233
First Shot-0.5#204
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#277
Layup/Dunks+2.8#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#117
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement+0.6#71

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot+2.6#97
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#50
Layups/Dunks+0.9#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#118
Freethrows+1.6#68
Improvement-0.9#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.6% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.9% 98.2%
Conference Champion 17.5% 33.3% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round9.2% 11.5% 8.3%
Second Round1.2% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 410 - 7
Quad 411 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 94-63 91%     1 - 0 +18.1 +11.5 +6.2
  Nov 10, 2022 36   @ Oklahoma St. W 61-60 14%     2 - 0 +15.2 +1.4 +13.8
  Nov 13, 2022 270   @ Southern Indiana L 53-71 70%     2 - 1 -21.0 -22.1 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 57-44 90%     3 - 1 +1.3 -23.3 +24.5
  Nov 21, 2022 82   UNLV L 49-56 34%     3 - 2 -0.5 -12.6 +11.2
  Nov 23, 2022 156   California Baptist W 64-61 OT 57%     4 - 2 +3.6 -3.5 +7.3
  Nov 30, 2022 341   @ Evansville W 80-53 85%     5 - 2 +18.4 +7.9 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2022 74   @ Saint Louis L 72-85 24%     5 - 3 -3.2 +4.6 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2022 124   Indiana St. L 71-74 60%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -3.2 -2.4 -0.8
  Dec 10, 2022 294   Alcorn St. W 74-68 87%     6 - 4 -3.9 -1.2 -2.5
  Dec 16, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 63-52 89%     7 - 4 -0.4 -6.8 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2022 250   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 66%     8 - 4 -0.1 -6.7 +6.6
  Dec 29, 2022 161   @ Murray St. W 63-57 47%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +9.1 +5.8 +4.7
  Jan 01, 2023 127   Belmont W 63-45 60%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +17.7 -6.6 +25.7
  Jan 04, 2023 84   Drake W 53-49 45%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +7.5 -9.3 +17.3
  Jan 07, 2023 165   @ Northern Iowa L 57-69 48%     11 - 5 3 - 2 -9.1 -7.9 -2.4
  Jan 11, 2023 124   @ Indiana St. W 69-61 39%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +13.2 -1.9 +15.0
  Jan 14, 2023 235   Illinois St. W 69-57 80%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.5 +3.9 +3.4
  Jan 17, 2023 341   Evansville W 77-70 93%     14 - 5 6 - 2 -7.0 -7.7 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2023 138   @ Missouri St. W 61-57 42%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +8.5 +9.3 +0.4
  Jan 24, 2023 161   Murray St. W 68-64 67%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +1.7 -2.7 +4.7
  Jan 29, 2023 235   @ Illinois St. L 66-72 63%     16 - 6 8 - 3 -7.2 +5.0 -13.3
  Feb 01, 2023 92   @ Bradley L 58-64 28%    
  Feb 05, 2023 138   Missouri St. W 61-58 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 69-59 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 84   @ Drake L 58-65 25%    
  Feb 14, 2023 268   @ Valparaiso W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 19, 2023 92   Bradley L 61-62 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 165   Northern Iowa W 66-61 68%    
  Feb 26, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-62 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.3 9.0 5.4 0.9 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 11.4 7.9 0.7 0.0 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.7 10.8 1.3 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 12.3 2.0 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.2 5.9 5.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 6.1 0.4 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 1.5 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.7 15.4 25.7 26.6 18.2 6.1 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 97.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-5 87.8% 5.4    3.4 1.8 0.2
14-6 49.3% 9.0    2.1 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 8.6% 2.3    0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 6.3 6.4 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 21.5% 17.4% 4.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 5.0%
15-5 6.1% 15.7% 15.5% 0.2% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 0.2%
14-6 18.2% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 16.0
13-7 26.6% 9.8% 9.8% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 24.0
12-8 25.7% 7.6% 7.6% 13.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 23.8
11-9 15.4% 5.9% 5.9% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.5
10-10 5.7% 4.8% 4.8% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
9-11 1.2% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 90.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 21.5% 11.6 0.5 10.3 9.1 1.6
Lose Out 0.1% 8.2% 15.6 3.3 4.9