Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 125
Results Rating +1.1 145
Pace 72.0 88
Improvement +2.4 93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 264 C D+ C D+ D+
Defense B+ 36 B- C+ B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 79 C+ 60% 118 +3.0 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 33 B+ 45% 33 +5.3 10
Three Pointers 28% 362 F+ 29% 349 -8.8 361
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 296 C +0.4 160
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 185
Second Chance C 29.8% 202 D 0.94 306 D+ 0.28 253
Turnovers C 16.8% 174
Freethrows C- 0.30 206 D 68% 317 D+ 0.20 254
Total Offense D+ -3.7 264

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 70 C+ 10.0% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 201 B 3.2% 60
Three Pointers C+ 86% 141 C+ 0.7% 124
Total D+ 51% 273 C+ 5.3% 154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 221 C+ 56% 113 -1.6 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 140 C- 40% 245 +0.7 248
Three Pointers 41% 170 B+ 30% 34 -2.3 88
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 129 B -2.9 68
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 77
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 105 C+ 1.01 148 C+ 0.29 107
Turnovers B 19.2% 51
Freethrows B- 0.28 111 B 70% 48 B- 0.20 83
Total Defense B+ +6.3 36

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 157 C+ 12.9% 95
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 220 C+ 5.7% 112
Three Pointers C- 85% 203 C+ 1.2% 102
Total C+ 54% 150 C+ 6.5% 103

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 63 17.6 239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 127 0.15 97
Improvement -4.5 #349 +6.9 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Outcome Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		50th Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 139 124 109
Results Rating Rank 162 142 121
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 10 - 10
Conference Finish 8 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 45% 55% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 60% 76% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 23 - 74 - 8
Quad 34 - 78 - 15
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 360 UMKC W 101 - 78 97% +11  66% 1 - 0 C+ +3 A +11 A+ B+ B- F -10 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 78 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 22% +1  56% 1 - 1 B- +6 C +1 C- F+ A+ B+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 129 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 41% -4  11% 1 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 B+ C D+ D+ -4 D- D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 265 Delaware W 79 - 59 79% +10  99% 2 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ B+ C- A+ +12 B- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 121 UAB L 73 - 81 49% -5  9% 2 - 3 D+ -5 C -0 C- D A+ D -5 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 101 @Memphis L 58 - 74 30% -11  0% 2 - 4 D -8 F -10 F C- B B- +2 C+ D- B
 Sat, Nov 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 89% +1  59% 3 - 4 C- -2 C +0 A D F C- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 90 @High Point W 86 - 84 26% -3  27% 4 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 C- A+ A+ B- +3 B- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 217 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 80% +9  83% 5 - 4 A +23 B+ +8 A+ B C A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 130 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 41% -2  30% 5 - 5 C- -4 D- -7 D- B- F B +5 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 103 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 53% +0  58% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 B- B+ F C -0 C+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 112 @Bradley L 69 - 73 36% -4  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 D -5 D- C C+ A- +7 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 123 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 38% -7  1% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 D A+ D+ B- +2 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 151 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 69% +5  78% 6 - 8 1 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 D- C A A- +8 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 67 @Belmont W 68 - 67 20% +0  58% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -4 B- C- F A+ +16 C+ A A
 Wed, Jan 7 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 35% -8  10% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 B F D- C+ +1 A F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 193 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 77% +4  65% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D+ -8 F -15 F D A A- +7 A+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 67 Belmont L 68 - 73 39% -2  35% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C +0 D- -7 D- D C+ A- +7 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 151 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 47% -11  10% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -3 D+ -4 D- C- C C+ +0 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 28 94 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 49% +6  74% 8 - 12 3 - 7 A +18 C- -1 A F B+ A+ +19 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 109 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 57% +6  73% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -1 D+ -3 B- F A+ C+ +2 A F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 103 @Illinois St. W 54 - 50 31% +1  51% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B+ +12 F -14 C- F F A+ +26 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Feb 6 123 Murray St. L 81 - 91 61% -6  29% 9 - 14 4 - 9 D -10 C- -1 C- D- A+ F+ -9 F A+ A
 Mon, Feb 9 213 @Indiana St. W 80 - 65 60% +7  80% 10 - 14 5 - 9 A- +15 C -0 B F+ D+ A+ +14 A+ F+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 295 Evansville W 86 - 60 89% +15  91% 11 - 14 6 - 9 A- +15 B+ +9 B A C+ A- +7 C A- B+
 Sun, Feb 15 112 Bradley L 60 - 70 59% -5  4% 11 - 15 6 - 10 D -10 F -15 F F A B +5 B- B F+
 Wed, Feb 18 193 @Drake W 66 - 61 56% -1  43% 12 - 15 7 - 10 B- +6 F -11 F F+ D A+ +17 A B A
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @Northern Iowa W 59 - 57 27% +5  89% 13 - 15 8 - 10 B +11 C +0 A B+ F A +11 A- F A+
 Wed, Feb 25 213 Indiana St. W 77 - 68 79%
 Sun, Mar 1 295 @Evansville W 72 - 65 75%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +3 D+ -4 F C D+ B+ +6 F+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ B+ F+ C 42% 55% 28% D+ C C D D+ C C- D D+ B+ C+ C- B+ B 37% 22% 41% C+ B- C+ C+ C+ B B- B B-
1.03 60% 45% 29% 0 -1 1.01 30% 0.9 .28 17% .30 68% .20 1.00 56% 40% 30% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .29 19% .28 70% .21
Nov
7		 UMKC A A+ A+ A- A+ 57% 25% 19% C A+ D+ A+ B+ B- A+ F A- F A+ F F+ C+ 38% 27% 35% C C+ F F F D- F A- D-
1.33 77% 54% 40% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.4 .48 16% .41 62% .25 1.02 29% 47% 37% -7 -1 0.85 34% 1.2 .40 16% .36 61% .22
Nov
12		 Nevada C D A F C+ 40% 34% 26% F+ C- D F F+ A+ A F+ B B+ A+ F A+ A+ 25% 30% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ F D- B D
1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27 1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32
Nov
17		 North Dakota St. C+ A- A+ F A- 45% 29% 25% C- B+ B+ D- C D+ D- B- D D+ A+ F+ F F+ 25% 25% 50% B D- B+ F D C- D+ F F+
1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16 1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24
Nov
23		 Delaware C+ A+ A F B- 20% 51% 29% F D+ A C- B+ C- A+ C A+ A+ F F A- C- 11% 32% 57% A+ B- F A+ C- A+ A+ B+ A+
1.16 90% 48% 14% +3 -5 0.98 41% 1.0 .41 15% .43 80% .34 0.87 80% 53% 30% +3 -3 1.02 30% 0.7 .20 28% .14 71% .10
Nov
24		 UAB C A A+ F C- 34% 29% 36% D C- C- F D A+ D A+ C D B C- C- C- 35% 33% 33% A C F+ F F C+ C- C+ C-
1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18 1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
26		 Memphis F C- F F F 37% 44% 19% F F B F C- B A+ F A+ B- B B+ D+ C+ 39% 20% 41% C- C+ B- F D- B F+ F F
0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35 1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29
Nov
29		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ A+ A A+ 49% 17% 34% C+ A C- F+ D F A+ F B+ C- F F A+ F 34% 23% 43% F+ F C- A B A+ C A+ B+
1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25 1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10
Dec
3		 High Point B+ C- F A- C- 45% 24% 31% D+ C- C+ A+ A+ A+ F C F+ B- A A+ F B- 42% 15% 42% C+ B- C+ B- B- C+ D+ C+ C-
1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16 1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29
Dec
10		 Tennessee Martin B+ A C A- A+ 52% 22% 26% B+ A+ C- A+ B C B D+ C+ A+ A+ B A A+ 28% 12% 60% D+ A A A+ A+ A+ A C- B+
1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25 0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16
Dec
13		 Richmond D- F+ C- D+ D+ 27% 51% 22% F D- B C- B- F A A+ A+ B F F B D- 30% 30% 41% C+ D A+ F A+ C D+ B- C-
0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31 1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27
Dec
18		 Illinois St. D D- A+ F B 33% 44% 23% F B- B- A B+ F A+ F C+ C F F A+ B- 35% 19% 46% C C+ F+ F F B- D A+ A
0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22 1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12
Dec
21		 Bradley D C A+ F D- 33% 35% 31% D+ D- C- C+ C C+ C- F+ D A- B- A+ F B 43% 27% 29% C B- D- C- D A+ D+ F F
0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21 1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32
Dec
29		 Murray St. C D D+ C- D- 58% 31% 11% C+ D B- A+ A+ D+ C- D+ C- B- F A+ F F 31% 21% 48% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ C- C C-
1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20 1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26
Jan
1		 Valparaiso D F D C F+ 44% 20% 36% B- D- F+ A+ C A A+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D A+ B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.00 45% 30% 33% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38 0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37
Jan
4		 Belmont D+ D A+ C+ B 28% 32% 40% F+ B- B+ F C- F C- F F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- 61% 14% 25% D- C+ B- A+ A A F+ A+ B-
0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16 0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19
Jan
7		 Illinois-Chicago F+ D+ A+ D- B+ 41% 25% 33% D+ B F F F D- F F F C+ A A A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% F A D- F F F+ F A D+
0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04 1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25
Jan
14		 Drake F B D+ F F 32% 31% 37% D F C F D A B D+ C+ A- D F A+ A+ 27% 19% 54% C+ A+ B F D- B+ F C- F+
0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22 0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28
Jan
17		 Belmont D- D F D+ D- 36% 20% 44% C+ D- D C D C+ A A+ A+ A- F+ A A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% B+ A+ D- A- C F F+ C F+
0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30 1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27
Jan
21		 Valparaiso D+ B+ F F F+ 51% 22% 27% B- D- C D+ C- C A+ F A+ C+ F+ A F F 31% 31% 38% C F A+ F A C+ F B- F
0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34 1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37
Jan
28		 Northern Iowa C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 39% 31% F A C- F F B+ A F D+ A+ B+ A- A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A C+
0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16 0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Illinois-Chicago D+ D- C- A+ B 47% 26% 28% C B- F F F A+ A D+ A- C+ C+ A A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F+ A F C+ F A+ F F F
1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29 1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43
Feb
3		 Illinois St. F B+ A- F C- 38% 40% 22% D- C- D- F F F C- B C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 37% 35% A+ A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21 0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
6		 Murray St. C- A C- F C+ 34% 34% 32% F+ C- D D- D- A+ B+ B+ A- F+ F+ F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A F C- F
1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27 1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34
Feb
9		 Indiana St. C B B C B 46% 29% 25% C- B C+ F F+ D+ D D+ D A+ B+ C A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% C A+ B F F+ A- C C+ C
1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14 0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17
Feb
12		 Evansville B+ A+ F C+ B- 42% 13% 45% A- B A C+ A C+ F A D- A- D+ F+ B- C- 21% 25% 55% C+ C C- A+ A- B+ A+ D+ A+
1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16 0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06
Feb
15		 Bradley F C A+ F F 35% 41% 24% D- F D- F F A C A+ B B D B+ B+ B- 37% 24% 39% C B- A- D+ B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 58% 50% 0% -7 -3 0.81 24% 0.4 .11 14% .32 84% .27 1.01 64% 29% 30% -2 0 0.97 21% 1.1 .24 10% .14 56% .08
Feb
18		 Drake F D- F B+ F 35% 24% 42% C F C+ F F+ D C- F D A+ C A- A+ A 32% 23% 45% C+ A C A B A A A+ A+
0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17 0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11
Feb
21		 Northern Iowa C B+ B A- A+ 38% 27% 36% D A A C B+ F F F F A B- C- A B+ 36% 31% 33% A+ A- F C F A+ B+ F B-
0.96 65% 42% 38% +5 -1 1.11 35% 0.9 .31 29% .07 33% .02 0.93 56% 43% 27% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.1 .34 23% .19 78% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 2.9 2.9 6th
7th 28.7 28.7 7th
8th 5.7 34.1 28.5 68.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 5.7 34.1 60.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 60.2% 4.6% 4.6% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 57.4
9-11 34.1% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 33.0
8-12 5.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 12.9 96.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 12.6 0.2 38.0 60.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.5%
Lose Out 2.1%