Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#154
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#206
Pace60.8#343
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#179
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#229
Layup/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#219
Freethrows+1.5#90
Improvement+0.8#94

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#136
First Shot+3.2#76
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#304
Layups/Dunks-2.8#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#27
Freethrows+2.2#54
Improvement-0.2#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.7% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 45.3% 56.2% 29.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.9% 60.7% 31.7%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 2.1% 13.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round3.0% 3.6% 2.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 34 - 56 - 12
Quad 49 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-69 67%     0 - 1 -6.9 -8.7 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 73-55 81%     1 - 1 +9.6 +4.9 +7.0
  Nov 19, 2021 75   Colorado W 67-63 28%     2 - 1 +10.9 +6.8 +4.7
  Nov 21, 2021 148   Northeastern L 47-59 47%     2 - 2 -10.6 -17.6 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2021 66   Creighton L 64-66 26%     2 - 3 +5.4 +4.5 +0.6
  Nov 26, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 62-59 88%     3 - 3 -8.8 -2.6 -5.6
  Dec 01, 2021 245   @ Evansville W 61-59 59%    
  Dec 04, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 67-59 79%    
  Dec 11, 2021 142   @ Tulsa L 62-66 35%    
  Dec 15, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-63 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 59-70 14%    
  Jan 02, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 58-66 23%    
  Jan 05, 2022 58   Drake L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 08, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso L 63-64 48%    
  Jan 12, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 15, 2022 112   Northern Iowa W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 19, 2022 174   Indiana St. W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 213   @ Bradley L 62-63 50%    
  Jan 25, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-69 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 02, 2022 93   Missouri St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 245   Evansville W 64-56 76%    
  Feb 15, 2022 213   Bradley W 65-59 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 58   @ Drake L 59-69 19%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.7 1.2 0.2 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 5.9 4.2 1.1 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 6.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 17.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.7 6.9 2.6 0.4 15.6 6th
7th 0.9 4.2 5.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.5 1.5 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.8 4.1 7.3 9.4 13.0 14.4 13.1 12.0 9.8 6.9 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 64.4% 0.7    0.4 0.3
14-4 28.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
16-2 0.3% 24.1% 24.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.1% 14.1% 12.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.3%
14-4 2.1% 15.1% 15.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
13-5 3.6% 6.8% 6.8% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.4
12-6 6.9% 8.1% 8.1% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.3
11-7 9.8% 5.8% 5.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.2
10-8 12.0% 4.2% 4.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 11.5
9-9 13.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.7
8-10 14.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.2
7-11 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 12.9
6-12 9.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.3
5-13 7.3% 7.3
4-14 4.1% 4.1
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 96.9 0.0%