Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#128
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Pace73.2#81
Improvement+1.0#115

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#167
First Shot-0.7#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#134
Layup/Dunks+3.3#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.4#365
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-2.2#326

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#109
First Shot+1.2#126
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#139
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement+3.2#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 45.1% 64.3% 37.9%
.500 or above in Conference 48.1% 68.1% 40.5%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.3% 4.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.5% 6.4% 3.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 72 - 9
Quad 34 - 66 - 15
Quad 49 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 344 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +8.3 +16.1 -9.7
  Wed, Nov 12 91 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 25%     1 - 1 +4.1 +2.4 +2.2
  Mon, Nov 17 149 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 42%     1 - 2 -3.0 +5.7 -8.0
  Sun, Nov 23 286 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +13.4 +5.7 +8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 106 UAB L 73-81 42%     2 - 3 -3.9 +1.3 -5.1
  Wed, Nov 26 74 @Memphis L 58-74 21%     2 - 4 -5.4 -7.2 +1.8
  Sat, Nov 29 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 89%     3 - 4 -2.5 +3.4 -5.1
  Wed, Dec 3 107 @High Point W 86-84 31%     4 - 4 +9.1 +8.4 +0.6
  Wed, Dec 10 213 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 79%     5 - 4 +22.5 +8.1 +14.5
  Sat, Dec 13 103 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 30%     5 - 5 -1.5 -1.4 +1.7
  Thu, Dec 18 85 Illinois St. L 68-75 43%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -3.2 -3.9 +0.7
  Sun, Dec 21 108 @Bradley L 69-73 31%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +2.9 -0.6 +3.6
  Mon, Dec 29 99 @Murray St. L 79-85 27%    
  Thu, Jan 1 216 Valparaiso W 77-68 79%    
  Sun, Jan 4 69 @Belmont L 75-84 19%    
  Wed, Jan 7 201 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 142 Drake W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 69 Belmont L 78-81 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 216 @Valparaiso W 74-71 59%    
  Sun, Jan 25 256 @Evansville W 74-70 65%    
  Wed, Jan 28 96 Northern Iowa L 65-66 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 201 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 85 @Illinois St. L 70-78 24%    
  Fri, Feb 6 99 Murray St. L 82-83 48%    
  Mon, Feb 9 200 @Indiana St. W 77-76 55%    
  Thu, Feb 12 256 Evansville W 77-67 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 108 Bradley W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 142 @Drake L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 96 @Northern Iowa L 62-69 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 200 Indiana St. W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.0 3.1 0.4 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.8 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 18.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 6.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 19.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.8 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.8 14.3 12.8 9.5 6.0 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 94.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 66.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.4% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.5% 27.0% 27.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.4% 20.4% 20.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1
14-6 3.4% 14.2% 14.2% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.9
13-7 6.0% 10.5% 10.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.4
12-8 9.5% 8.5% 8.5% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.7
11-9 12.8% 5.3% 5.3% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.1
10-10 14.3% 4.3% 4.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.7
9-11 14.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.4
8-12 12.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.2 0.1 12.7
7-13 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.2
6-14 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-15 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-16 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 95.5 0.0%