Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#118
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#119
Pace62.1#339
Improvement-3.4#312

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#121
First Shot+2.4#115
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-0.6#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#67
Freethrows+2.4#45
Improvement-2.9#324

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#133
First Shot+4.4#46
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#350
Layups/Dunks-4.7#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#1
Freethrows-1.8#293
Improvement-0.4#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.1% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.7% 7.1% 5.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 411 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 267   Queens W 91-68 85%     1 - 0 +15.0 +11.0 +3.8
  Nov 16, 2023 296   Chicago St. W 71-55 89%     2 - 0 +5.8 +2.3 +5.2
  Nov 21, 2023 65   James Madison L 76-82 30%     2 - 1 +2.6 +5.9 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2023 268   New Mexico St. W 81-54 79%     3 - 1 +21.7 +15.3 +9.2
  Nov 28, 2023 55   @ Indiana St. L 48-77 20%     3 - 2 -16.8 -18.8 +0.9
  Dec 02, 2023 192   Saint Louis W 101-62 78%     4 - 2 +34.4 +23.4 +11.5
  Dec 05, 2023 91   Oklahoma St. W 70-68 49%     5 - 2 +5.5 +6.6 -0.9
  Dec 12, 2023 217   Austin Peay L 68-70 81%     5 - 3 -7.8 -0.4 -7.7
  Dec 16, 2023 148   @ Wichita St. L 68-69 48%     5 - 4 +2.8 +7.9 -5.3
  Dec 19, 2023 237   North Dakota St. W 76-63 82%     6 - 4 +6.5 +2.8 +4.2
  Dec 22, 2023 326   Southern Indiana W 81-50 93%     7 - 4 +18.1 +9.5 +11.2
  Dec 30, 2023 203   Illinois-Chicago W 62-50 79%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +6.7 -4.5 +12.5
  Jan 02, 2024 131   Belmont W 73-63 65%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +9.4 -3.8 +12.8
  Jan 06, 2024 173   @ Illinois St. W 71-64 54%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +9.2 +16.6 -5.9
  Jan 10, 2024 304   @ Valparaiso W 77-68 79%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +4.0 +8.9 -4.0
  Jan 13, 2024 59   Drake L 58-76 38%     11 - 5 4 - 1 -11.5 -9.1 -3.7
  Jan 17, 2024 78   Bradley L 69-70 46%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +3.3 +8.7 -5.5
  Jan 20, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 57-61 40%     11 - 7 4 - 3 +1.8 -7.3 +8.7
  Jan 24, 2024 304   Valparaiso W 75-69 90%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -4.5 +0.9 -5.0
  Jan 27, 2024 139   @ Murray St. W 60-58 45%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +6.6 -4.1 +10.9
  Jan 31, 2024 163   Missouri St. L 75-76 OT 72%     13 - 8 6 - 4 -3.8 +1.3 -5.0
  Feb 03, 2024 203   @ Illinois-Chicago W 74-71 62%     14 - 8 7 - 4 +3.1 +2.3 +0.8
  Feb 07, 2024 59   @ Drake L 88-92 OT 21%     14 - 9 7 - 5 +8.0 +11.8 -3.5
  Feb 10, 2024 173   Illinois St. W 69-66 74%     15 - 9 8 - 5 -0.3 +10.1 -9.8
  Feb 14, 2024 131   @ Belmont L 68-82 44%     15 - 10 8 - 6 -9.1 -2.8 -6.4
  Feb 17, 2024 55   Indiana St. W 74-69 37%     16 - 10 9 - 6 +11.7 +1.1 +10.5
  Feb 21, 2024 139   Murray St. W 72-68 66%     17 - 10 10 - 6 +3.1 +4.1 -0.7
  Feb 25, 2024 218   @ Evansville W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 78   @ Bradley L 64-70 27%    
  Mar 03, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 70-67 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.7 0.7 2nd
3rd 8.5 10.3 18.8 3rd
4th 18.5 31.7 50.2 4th
5th 7.7 19.0 26.7 5th
6th 3.5 3.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.1 37.6 40.3 11.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 11.0% 9.1% 9.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.0
12-8 40.3% 7.2% 7.2% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 37.4
11-9 37.6% 5.9% 5.9% 13.4 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 35.3
10-10 11.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.6
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.0% 9.1% 12.8 0.1 3.1 5.0 0.9 0.0
Lose Out 11.1% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.5 0.0