IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.1	#141
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#139
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.3	#155

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#136

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.7%	8.3%	3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.3	12.2	13.0

.500 or above	52.7%	56.4%	27.3%
.500 or above in Conference	55.5%	58.2%	37.5%
Conference Champion	8.3%	8.9%	4.0%
Last Place in Conference	7.1%	6.2%	12.9%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	7.6%	8.2%	3.6%
Second Round	1.1%	1.2%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 5	2 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 7	8 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 2	16 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	301	UMKC	W	72-60	87%
Nov 12, 2025	98	@ Nevada	L	63-70	26%
Nov 17, 2025	208	@ North Dakota St.	W	71-70	53%
Nov 24, 2025	242	Delaware	W	79-73	69%
Nov 24, 2025	102	UAB	L	73-77	37%
Nov 26, 2025	53	@ Memphis	L	69-81	14%
Nov 29, 2025	177	Arkansas Little Rock	W	72-67	68%
Dec 03, 2025	108	@ High Point	L	69-75	30%
Dec 10, 2025	323	Tennessee Martin	W	77-63	88%
Dec 13, 2025	137	@ Richmond	L	65-69	38%
Dec 18, 2025	109	Illinois St.	W	72-71	50%
Dec 21, 2025	107	@ Bradley	L	66-72	30%
Dec 29, 2025	127	@ Murray St.	L	66-70	37%
Jan 01, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	77-68	79%
Jan 04, 2026	112	@ Belmont	L	74-79	32%
Jan 07, 2026	154	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	72-74	44%
Jan 14, 2026	114	Drake	W	62-61	52%
Jan 17, 2026	112	Belmont	W	77-76	52%
Jan 21, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	W	74-71	61%
Jan 25, 2026	241	@ Evansville	W	70-67	59%
Jan 28, 2026	110	Northern Iowa	W	69-68	51%
Jan 31, 2026	154	Illinois-Chicago	W	75-71	63%
Feb 03, 2026	109	@ Illinois St.	L	68-74	31%
Feb 06, 2026	127	Murray St.	W	69-67	57%
Feb 09, 2026	170	@ Indiana St.	L	78-79	47%
Feb 12, 2026	241	Evansville	W	73-64	76%
Feb 15, 2026	107	Bradley	L	69-70	50%
Feb 18, 2026	114	@ Drake	L	59-64	33%
Feb 21, 2026	110	@ Northern Iowa	L	65-71	32%
Feb 25, 2026	170	Indiana St.	W	81-76	67%
Projected Record						15 - 15	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.0	1.8	2.3	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.1		8.3	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	2.0	3.0	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.0				9.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.9	3.8	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0					10.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.3	4.1	1.8	0.4	0.0							10.4	4th
5th									0.1	0.8	3.3	4.4	1.6	0.2	0.0								10.5	5th
6th								0.1	0.9	3.5	4.4	1.6	0.2										10.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.1	3.7	4.1	1.7	0.1											10.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.1	3.2	3.5	1.5	0.1												9.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	1.7	3.1	2.8	1.1	0.1													9.2	9th
10th			0.1	0.6	1.6	2.3	1.6	0.5	0.1														6.8	10th
11th	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0															4.4	11th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	3.2	4.9	6.0	7.8	9.4	10.1	10.4	10.1	9.3	8.0	6.5	4.8	3.4	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
18-2	97.0%	0.9		0.8	0.1	0.0
17-3	88.2%	1.5		1.2	0.3	0.0
16-4	68.8%	2.3		1.6	0.7	0.1
15-5	37.6%	1.8		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-6	14.9%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.3%	8.3		5.2	2.2	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		68.0%	52.0%	16.0%	6.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		33.3%
19-1	0.3%		60.4%	50.8%	9.6%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					0.1		19.4%
18-2	0.9%		50.6%	42.3%	8.3%	10.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.0				0.5		14.3%
17-3	1.7%		35.0%	33.3%	1.7%	11.2										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0				1.1		2.5%
16-4	3.4%		27.9%	27.5%	0.4%	11.5											0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0			2.5		0.5%
15-5	4.8%		21.1%	21.0%	0.1%	11.8											0.0	0.3	0.6	0.1				3.8		0.1%
14-6	6.5%		16.7%	16.7%		12.2												0.2	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0		5.4
13-7	8.0%		12.6%	12.6%		12.6												0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.0
12-8	9.3%		7.9%	7.9%		12.8												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0		8.6
11-9	10.1%		6.2%	6.2%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.4
10-10	10.4%		4.0%	4.0%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.9
9-11	10.1%		2.5%	2.5%		15.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	9.8
8-12	9.4%		1.1%	1.1%		16.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	9.2
7-13	7.8%		0.8%	0.8%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7
6-14	6.0%		0.6%	0.6%		15.9																0.0	0.0	6.0
5-15	4.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
4-16	3.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-17	1.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.7%	7.5%	0.2%	12.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.8	2.7	1.5	0.6	0.4	0.3	92.3		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.7			32.5		34.1	33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.0				100.0