Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #132
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #177
Pace 71.9 #89
Improvement +1.3 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #254 C C- C C- D+
Defense #60 B- C+ B- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #78 1.19 #137 +2.9 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #27 0.92 #22 +6.2 #4
Three Pointers 27% #363 0.84 #359 -9.5 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.4 #187
Freethrows 0.32 #149 67% #332 0.21 #208
Second Chance 29.1% #222 0.99 #228 0.29 #230
Turnovers 16.5% #153
Total Offense -3.0 #254

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.12 #124 +1.5 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.80 #255 -0.6 #234
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.92 #52 +1.7 #114
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #94 +2.6 #96
Freethrows 0.30 #175 71% #94 0.21 #148
Second Chance 28.1% #86 1.00 #147 0.28 #95
Turnovers 18.9% #71
Total Defense +4.6 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #302 -0.2% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #150 -4.8% #85
Possession Length 16.0 #59 17.5 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #113 0.15 #103
Improvement -3.9 #342 +5.2 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.4% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.3 14.5
.500 or above 14.0% 22.6% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.9% 25.5% 3.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round2.9% 3.4% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 21 - 74 - 8
Quad 33 - 87 - 16
Quad 47 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 360 UMKC W 101 - 78 95% +11  1 - 0 +5 +14 A+ A- B- -11 C+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 12 76 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 20% +1  1 - 1 +6 +4 C F+ A+ +2 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 136 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 39% -4  1 - 2 -3 +6 B C C- -7 D- D- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 288 Delaware W 79 - 59 80% +10  2 - 2 +13 +6 D+ A- C +8 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 120 UAB L 73 - 81 46% -5  2 - 3 -6 +1 D+ D A+ -6 C F C
 Wed, Nov 26 93 @Memphis L 58 - 74 24% -11  2 - 4 -7 -7 F C- B -0 C+ D- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 87% +1  3 - 4 -1 +3 A D F+ -3 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 94 @High Point W 86 - 84 25% -3  4 - 4 +10 +11 C- A+ A+ -0 C+ C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 198 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 75% +9  5 - 4 +24 +10 A+ B+ C +13 A A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 137 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 39% -2  5 - 5 -5 -4 D- B- F +1 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 92 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 44% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -2 B- A- F -2 C+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 124 @Bradley L 69 - 73 36% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +1 -3 D- C B- +4 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 102 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 28% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +5 +4 D+ A+ D+ +1 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 158 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 68% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +2 -2 D C A+ +4 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 72 @Belmont W 68 - 67 19% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +12 -1 B- C- F +13 C+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 39% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -8 -7 B- F D -2 A- F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 160 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 68% +4  7 - 10 2 - 5 -6 -11 F D A +5 A+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 72 Belmont L 68 - 73 37% -2  7 - 11 2 - 6 +0 -4 D D C+ +4 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 158 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 45% -11  7 - 12 2 - 7 -3 -0 D C C -4 F A- C
 Wed, Jan 28 108 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 53% +6  8 - 12 3 - 7 +16 +2 A F B +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 135 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 62% +6  8 - 13 3 - 8 -3 -2 C+ F A+ -2 A- F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 92 @Illinois St. W 54 - 50 24% +1  9 - 13 4 - 8 +13 -11 C- F F +24 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Feb 6 102 Murray St. L 81 - 91 49% -6  9 - 14 4 - 9 -8 +2 C D- A+ -10 F A+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 192 @Indiana St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 284 Evansville W 75 - 63 86%
 Sun, Feb 15 124 Bradley W 73 - 71 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 160 @Drake L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 @Northern Iowa L 59 - 64 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 192 Indiana St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sun, Mar 1 284 @Evansville W 72 - 66 69%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +2 -3 C C- C +5 B- C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 1.2 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 5.7 0.4 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 11.9 3.8 0.0 18.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 16.3 10.5 0.4 30.7 8th
9th 0.4 5.2 15.1 10.3 0.7 31.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.5 0.1 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 8.6 20.1 28.9 25.4 12.4 2.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 2.6% 8.9% 8.9% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3
10-10 12.4% 5.0% 5.0% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.8
9-11 25.4% 3.4% 3.4% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 24.6
8-12 28.9% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.1 0.7 0.0 28.2
7-13 20.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.2 0.2 19.7
6-14 8.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.5
5-15 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 13.8 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 23.2 69.6 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.2%