SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#62
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#75
Pace72.1#92
Improvement+0.9#126

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#23
First Shot+4.3#70
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#30
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#172
Freethrows+3.0#51
Improvement+1.1#97

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#125
First Shot+2.1#115
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks+3.1#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#268
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.5% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 30.3% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.6% 28.0% 15.9%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.8
.500 or above 90.8% 94.2% 82.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.2% 77.7% 54.5%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.4% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.5% 2.6%
First Four8.2% 8.8% 6.8%
First Round22.4% 25.7% 13.8%
Second Round10.5% 12.2% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 6
Quad 26 - 58 - 11
Quad 36 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +22.0 +14.3 +5.8
  Nov 07, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +13.1 +13.2 -3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 87%     3 - 0 +10.1 +4.0 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 54   @ Butler L 70-81 37%     3 - 1 +1.7 +3.6 -2.0
  Nov 18, 2024 357   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +23.8 +12.0 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 15   Mississippi St. L 79-84 39%     4 - 2 +7.2 +10.8 -3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 185   California Baptist W 79-77 83%     5 - 2 +0.8 +11.4 -10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 74   Washington St. W 77-60 57%     6 - 2 +24.5 +17.5 +8.8
  Dec 03, 2024 285   Alabama St. W 101-72 95%     7 - 2 +19.5 +19.8 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 90   Virginia W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 47   LSU L 79-80 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 145   @ Boston College W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 202   Longwood W 84-70 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 71-79 22%    
  Jan 07, 2025 17   @ North Carolina L 81-90 21%    
  Jan 11, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 85-76 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 90   @ Virginia W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 87   @ Miami (FL) L 80-81 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 43   Louisville W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   California W 85-77 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 93   Stanford W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 05, 2025 129   @ Virginia Tech W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 36   Pittsburgh L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 80   @ Notre Dame L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 28   Clemson L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 109   @ California W 82-80 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 93   @ Stanford W 78-77 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 96   Syracuse W 86-79 72%    
  Mar 07, 2025 61   @ Florida St. L 78-81 39%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.3 1.2 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.1 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.2 12.2 12.8 13.0 11.8 9.1 6.2 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 80.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 50.1% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 21.9% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 4.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 98.0% 13.3% 84.7% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
16-4 3.7% 92.1% 10.6% 81.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 91.1%
15-5 6.2% 80.0% 8.0% 72.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.2 78.3%
14-6 9.1% 61.3% 5.9% 55.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.1 3.5 58.9%
13-7 11.8% 40.7% 3.3% 37.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 0.2 7.0 38.8%
12-8 13.0% 24.4% 2.4% 22.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.2 9.8 22.5%
11-9 12.8% 11.7% 1.2% 10.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.1 11.3 10.6%
10-10 12.2% 5.3% 0.6% 4.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 11.5 4.8%
9-11 10.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.9%
8-12 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
7-13 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.2
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 26.7% 2.8% 23.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.5 0.7 73.3 24.6%