SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.2 #34
Expected Predictive Rating +16.3 #27
Pace 71.9 #114
Improvement +0.7 #140

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #26 A- C B B D
Defense #64 B B- B- B+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.39 #12 +4.0 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.89 #36 +4.6 #21
Three Pointers 35% #303 1.06 #117 -2.3 #260
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #42 +6.3 #40
Freethrows 16.1 #254 76% #76 12.3 #192
Second Chance 38.6% #22 1.01 #226 0.39 #60
Turnovers 15.1% #86
Total Offense +8.7 #26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.18 #190 +4.4 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #48 0.73 #162 -1.7 #293
Three Pointers 44% #108 0.90 #64 +1.0 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #74 +3.7 #75
Freethrows 15.5 #94 70% #105 10.9 #84
Second Chance 31.1% #195 0.92 #56 0.28 #106
Turnovers 19.8% #45
Total Defense +4.5 #64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #290 -2.5% #29
Shot Type Make Effect 14.4% #21 -4.9% #100
Possession Length 15.4 #42 18.4 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #27 0.12 #42
Improvement +1.6 #63 -0.9 #248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 8.7% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 21.8% 30.1% 12.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.5% 87.2% 71.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.7% 86.5% 70.3%
Average Seed 7.8 7.3 8.3
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 87.8% 70.2%
Conference Champion 4.2% 6.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four7.5% 5.3% 9.8%
First Round75.8% 84.5% 66.4%
Second Round42.2% 49.7% 34.1%
Sweet Sixteen12.4% 15.7% 8.8%
Elite Eight4.4% 5.5% 3.1%
Final Four1.5% 2.1% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 164 Tarleton St. W 96-76 93%     7.3   1 - 0 +16.6 +2.4 -3.1
  Thu, Nov 6 231 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 96%     2.0   2 - 0 +4.0 -1.8 -3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 101 Murray St. W 102-91 85%     8.7   3 - 0 +13.2 +0.2 +3.3
  Sat, Nov 15 50 Butler W 87-85 70%     0.0   4 - 0 +9.7 +3.7 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 18 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     24.7   5 - 0 +30.3 -3.7 -6.4
  Fri, Nov 21 130 Arkansas St. W 100-69 90%     15.0   6 - 0 +30.0 +0.1 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 257 Radford W 89-72 97%     10.9   7 - 0 +8.5 -4.9 -1.4
  Fri, Nov 28 72 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 60%     -1.2   8 - 0 +16.7 +5.6 +5.9
  Wed, Dec 3 8 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 17%     -8.8   8 - 1 +4.2 +10.0 +10.5
  Sun, Dec 7 44 Texas A&M W 93-80 OT 55%     4.8   9 - 1 +24.9 +5.2 +8.1
  Sat, Dec 13 39 LSU L 77-89 51%     -7.3   9 - 2 +1.0 +6.3 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 21 280 Central Arkansas W 99-82 97%     11.3   10 - 2 +7.5 +0.6 -7.6
  Sun, Dec 28 261 Cal St. Fullerton W 110-63 97%     25.1   11 - 2 +38.4 -0.5 -2.0
  Sat, Jan 3 22 North Carolina W 545-544 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 41 @Clemson L 515-517 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 5 @Duke L 541-553 14%    
  Wed, Jan 14 73 Virginia Tech W 560-551 79%    
  Sat, Jan 17 25 Virginia W 551-550 53%    
  Tue, Jan 20 63 @Wake Forest W 560-559 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 110 Florida St. W 594-581 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 12 @Louisville L 579-588 23%    
  Tue, Feb 3 27 North Carolina St. W 574-573 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 82 @Pittsburgh W 527-524 62%    
  Tue, Feb 10 60 Notre Dame W 514-507 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 74 @Syracuse W 549-546 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 12 Louisville L 582-585 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 160 Boston College W 520-504 93%    
  Wed, Feb 25 77 @California W 546-543 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 91 @Stanford W 549-545 65%    
  Wed, Mar 4 37 Miami (FL) W 561-558 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 110 @Florida St. W 591-584 73%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 5.1 0.6 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 1.5 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.3 0.2 10.5 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 4.3 0.7 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.4 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.5 3.5 2.3 0.2 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.3 5.7 9.5 12.8 14.8 16.0 14.3 10.1 6.5 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 86.0% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 50.6% 1.7    0.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
14-4 14.7% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.4% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.5% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.1% 99.8% 9.2% 90.6% 6.2 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 14.3% 98.9% 5.5% 93.4% 7.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.2 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 98.8%
11-7 16.0% 95.9% 2.4% 93.6% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.8 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.7 95.8%
10-8 14.8% 88.0% 1.3% 86.7% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 4.2 3.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 87.8%
9-9 12.8% 74.9% 0.9% 74.0% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.9 2.0 0.0 3.2 74.7%
8-10 9.5% 48.5% 0.1% 48.4% 10.4 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.4 0.0 4.9 48.4%
7-11 5.7% 22.2% 0.7% 21.5% 10.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 4.4 21.7%
6-12 3.3% 3.0% 0.3% 2.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 2.8%
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 79.5% 4.0% 75.5% 7.8 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.5 6.4 9.8 11.9 13.5 13.8 11.9 6.4 0.2 20.5 78.7%