Preseason Rankings
SMU
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.5% 7.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 16.0% 16.3% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.9% 48.6% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.5% 46.2% 18.9%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.8
.500 or above 85.4% 86.1% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.9% 66.6% 39.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.4% 7.0%
First Four6.5% 6.5% 5.1%
First Round44.5% 45.2% 16.8%
Second Round27.2% 27.7% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 10.4% 2.9%
Elite Eight3.9% 3.9% 0.9%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 274   Tarleton St. W 79-58 98%    
  Nov 06, 2025 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 11, 2025 127   Murray St. W 77-64 88%    
  Nov 15, 2025 66   Butler W 78-72 71%    
  Nov 18, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-60 100.0%   
  Nov 21, 2025 140   Arkansas St. W 83-69 89%    
  Nov 24, 2025 150   Radford W 77-62 90%    
  Nov 28, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 03, 2025 41   @ Vanderbilt L 76-79 38%    
  Dec 07, 2025 35   Texas A&M L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 13, 2025 52   LSU W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 21, 2025 358   Central Arkansas W 88-58 99%    
  Dec 28, 2025 337   Cal St. Fullerton W 85-59 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 25   North Carolina L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 07, 2026 42   @ Clemson L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 10, 2026 3   @ Duke L 66-79 14%    
  Jan 14, 2026 76   Virginia Tech W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 17, 2026 46   Virginia W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 20, 2026 67   @ Wake Forest W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 24, 2026 78   Florida St. W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 31, 2026 11   @ Louisville L 73-82 23%    
  Feb 03, 2026 31   North Carolina St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 07, 2026 77   @ Pittsburgh W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 10, 2026 63   Notre Dame W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 14, 2026 64   @ Syracuse L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 17, 2026 11   Louisville L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 21, 2026 100   Boston College W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 25, 2026 91   @ California W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 28, 2026 95   @ Stanford W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 04, 2026 56   Miami (FL) W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 07, 2026 78   @ Florida St. W 77-75 56%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.1 0.2 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.3 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.4 8.4 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 8.3 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 95.7% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-2 72.7% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 46.4% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 15.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 3.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.7% 99.9% 18.3% 81.6% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 6.0% 98.6% 13.6% 85.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
13-5 8.3% 95.1% 9.7% 85.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 94.6%
12-6 10.3% 86.1% 5.4% 80.7% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 1.4 85.3%
11-7 11.6% 70.4% 3.4% 67.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.4 69.4%
10-8 12.0% 51.1% 2.0% 49.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.1 0.0 5.9 50.1%
9-9 11.6% 30.4% 0.7% 29.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.1 29.9%
8-10 10.3% 10.2% 0.3% 9.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 9.9%
7-11 8.4% 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 2.1%
6-12 6.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.1%
5-13 4.2% 4.2
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.9% 4.3% 43.6% 7.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.8 5.4 6.8 7.3 8.5 3.6 0.1 0.0 52.1 45.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 25.2 74.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 49.4 50.6