SMU
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#201
Pace71.6#114
Improvement-1.1#260

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#81
First Shot+4.0#66
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#202
Layup/Dunks+1.0#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#46
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-0.7#256

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#131
First Shot+4.4#51
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#331
Layups/Dunks+1.0#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement-0.4#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.9% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 12.1
.500 or above 69.5% 76.2% 51.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.1% 55.7% 42.7%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.4% 6.7%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round3.3% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 36 - 59 - 14
Quad 49 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 86-62 94%     1 - 0 +10.8 -4.2 +11.6
  Nov 12, 2021 44   @ Oregon L 63-86 22%     1 - 1 -9.9 -4.4 -5.4
  Nov 15, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 95-48 96%     2 - 1 +30.6 +12.8 +17.9
  Nov 18, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 78-61 94%     3 - 1 +3.9 -5.3 +8.3
  Nov 21, 2021 132   Missouri L 75-80 OT 60%     3 - 2 -2.7 -3.3 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount L 70-76 59%     3 - 3 -3.7 +5.7 -10.2
  Nov 24, 2021 218   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 83%     4 - 3 +3.6 +1.0 +2.7
  Nov 28, 2021 263   Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 89%     5 - 3 -1.6 -3.1 +1.5
  Dec 01, 2021 147   UNLV W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 04, 2021 77   Vanderbilt W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 08, 2021 113   Dayton W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 19, 2021 201   @ New Mexico W 83-79 63%    
  Dec 21, 2021 245   Evansville W 73-61 87%    
  Dec 29, 2021 142   @ Tulsa W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 02, 2022 65   Central Florida W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 06, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 12, 2022 225   South Florida W 68-57 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 168   @ Tulane W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 20, 2022 23   @ Memphis L 70-82 14%    
  Jan 23, 2022 53   Wichita St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 225   @ South Florida W 65-60 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 150   Temple W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 09, 2022 7   Houston L 63-73 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 178   @ East Carolina W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 16, 2022 150   @ Temple W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 20, 2022 23   Memphis L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 23, 2022 142   Tulsa W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 27, 2022 7   @ Houston L 60-76 8%    
  Mar 03, 2022 55   Cincinnati L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 06, 2022 168   Tulane W 75-67 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.7 1.7 0.2 9.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 5.3 4.9 1.9 0.2 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.5 5.3 1.8 0.1 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.8 5.7 1.6 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.7 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.5 0.4 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.8 5.8 9.3 12.1 14.4 14.6 13.2 10.4 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1
15-3 55.8% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 29.2% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 75.3% 11.8% 63.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.0%
15-3 0.8% 56.0% 7.5% 48.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 52.4%
14-4 2.1% 34.9% 10.9% 24.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 27.0%
13-5 3.9% 16.2% 8.4% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 8.4%
12-6 6.9% 8.9% 7.0% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.2 2.1%
11-7 10.4% 4.1% 3.7% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9 0.4%
10-8 13.2% 2.4% 2.4% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.9
9-9 14.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6
8-10 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
7-11 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
6-12 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 9.3
5-13 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.6% 2.2% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.4 1.5%