SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.6 32
Expected Predictive Rating +14.2 38
Pace 72.1 81
Improvement +0.3 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 13 A B B C D+
Defense B- 74 B- B- B- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 182 B+ 66% 37 +2.9 85
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 100 A 48% 12 +4.7 17
Three Pointers 35% 296 A 41% 6 +0.8 150
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 276 A +9.1 3
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 11
Second Chance B+ 36.8% 30 C+ 1.06 126 B 0.39 46
Turnovers B 14.6% 50
Freethrows C- 0.29 230 B 76% 56 C 0.22 175
Total Offense A +11.0 13

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 21 B+ 7.4% 29
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 56 C 5.4% 216
Three Pointers C 84% 193 B- 0.5% 78
Total B 61% 64 B 4.4% 56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 C+ 56% 132 -4.8 43
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 77 B 35% 65 +0.4 217
Three Pointers 45% 62 C+ 33% 118 +1.3 247
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 48 B- -2.2 94
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 78
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 129 B- 0.95 71 B- 0.28 80
Turnovers B- 18.6% 77
Freethrows B 0.26 51 B- 71% 88 B 0.18 46
Total Defense B- +3.6 74

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 283 B 15.3% 51
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 354 B- 7.1% 64
Three Pointers D+ 87% 261 C 0.9% 162
Total D 63% 329 B- 6.8% 84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 26 18.6 340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 53 0.14 68
Improvement +1.9 #100 -1.5 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 10% 11% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90% 90% 82%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89% 90% 82%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 9.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 98% 83%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 6%
First Round88% 89% 79%
Second Round48% 48% 38%
Sweet Sixteen11% 12% 8%
Elite Eight4% 4% 3%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 Tarleton St. W 96 - 76 96% +7  94% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +17 A D- A+ D+ -4 B+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 6 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 58 96% +2  63% 2 - 0 B- +6 D -5 F F+ A+ A +11 A A- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 124 Murray St. W 102 - 91 91% +9  97% 3 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 B- B+ B+ C -0 C- C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 77 Butler W 87 - 85 83% -0  41% 4 - 0 B- +7 B +7 A+ B F C -0 F+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106 - 60 99% +24  99% 5 - 0 A+ +32 A- +9 A+ F+ C A+ +17 A- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 140 Arkansas St. W 100 - 69 93% +15  89% 6 - 0 A+ +29 A- +11 A+ F A A+ +14 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 233 Radford W 89 - 72 97% +11  100% 7 - 0 B +10 C -0 D+ A D A +8 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 69 @Mississippi St. W 87 - 81 OT 63% -1  33% 8 - 0 A- +17 B +7 C+ A+ C A +9 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 14 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 88 24% -9  4% 8 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 C- A+ C+ D+ -3 D A F
 Sun, Dec 7 35 Texas A&M W 93 - 80 OT 51% +5  73% 9 - 1 A+ +27 B +7 C A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 54 LSU L 77 - 89 67% -7  8% 9 - 2 C- -2 A +11 A B+ C F -14 F F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 180 Central Arkansas W 99 - 82 95% +11  98% 10 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +21 A A+ B D- -8 D- F A
 Sun, Dec 28 207 Cal St. Fullerton W 110 - 63 96% +25  99% 11 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +23 A+ A- A A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 30 North Carolina W 97 - 83 61% +5  83% 12 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +27 A+ C A C -1 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 38 @Clemson L 70 - 74 43% -7  0% 12 - 3 1 - 1 B+ +12 A- +10 C- A+ C- B- +3 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 2 @Duke L 75 - 82 12% -4  21% 12 - 4 1 - 2 A +20 A +14 A+ B+ F B+ +6 C A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 58 Virginia Tech W 77 - 76 79% -0  43% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B- +7 B +6 B C- B C+ +2 C+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 22 Virginia L 68 - 72 51% -1  41% 13 - 5 2 - 3 B +10 B+ +9 B- A+ A C+ +1 A F B
 Tue, Jan 20 61 @Wake Forest W 91 - 79 60% +8  89% 14 - 5 3 - 3 A+ +24 A +14 A+ B+ B A +9 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 85 Florida St. W 83 - 80 84% +4  72% 15 - 5 4 - 3 B- +7 A +11 B+ C A+ D+ -5 C+ C D
 Sat, Jan 31 12 @Louisville L 74 - 88 23% +1  56% 15 - 6 4 - 4 B +8 C+ +3 A B F+ B+ +6 C A C-
 Tue, Feb 3 24 North Carolina St. L 83 - 84 57% +1  55% 15 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +12 A +12 A+ D- A+ C -0 C+ B+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 101 @Pittsburgh W 86 - 67 73% +7  66% 16 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +27 A+ +20 A+ B- A- A +9 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Feb 10 84 Notre Dame W 89 - 81 84% +5  83% 17 - 7 6 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ A+ F D+ -4 F B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 70 @Syracuse L 78 - 79 63% +5  92% 17 - 8 6 - 6 B +10 A +13 F+ A+ A+ C- -3 C- A+ D-
 Tue, Feb 17 12 Louisville W 95 - 85 44% +2  67% 18 - 8 7 - 6 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ F A A- +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 134 Boston College W 83 - 67 93%
 Wed, Feb 25 71 @California W 82 - 78 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 75 @Stanford W 81 - 77 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 40 Miami (FL) W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 @Florida St. W 87 - 82 68%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15 A +11 C+ A D+ B- +4 A B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B+ A A A 38% 45% 35% D+ A B+ C+ B B C- B C B- C+ B C+ B- 31% 24% 45% B B- C+ B- B- B- B B- B
1.24 66% 48% 41% +9 -1 1.19 37% 1.1 .39 15% .29 76% .22 1.03 56% 35% 33% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.0 .28 19% .26 71% .21
Nov
3		 Tarleton St. A+ A+ A+ A A+ 30% 33% 37% F A D F+ D- A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ D- C+ 22% 43% 35% A+ B+ C B B- C+ F F F
1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53 1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50
Nov
6		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D D F D- F+ 40% 30% 30% D- F C+ F F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ C+ A- 29% 23% 48% A- A C- A+ A- D+ B C B-
1.00 53% 29% 29% -7 -1 0.85 31% 0.5 .17 13% .47 82% .38 0.84 47% 8% 32% -12 -1 0.77 31% 0.6 .19 16% .31 67% .21
Nov
11		 Murray St. B+ D B A+ B 40% 35% 25% D- B- A C- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C B+ F C+ D+ 39% 17% 44% C C- A F C- B D+ C D+
1.25 50% 43% 47% +3 -2 1.05 43% 1.0 .43 14% .43 83% .36 1.12 52% 78% 33% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.6 .39 18% .36 75% .27
Nov
15		 Butler B A- A+ C A 63% 15% 22% A+ A+ A+ F+ B F B- B B C D- A+ F F 35% 17% 48% B+ F+ F A+ B+ A+ D A+ C+
1.17 68% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.22 42% 0.8 .32 21% .26 73% .19 1.14 67% 22% 48% +10 0 1.23 43% 0.8 .32 23% .40 61% .24
Nov
18		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A- A+ A- A+ A+ 36% 19% 46% D+ A+ D D- F+ C C+ C+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ A 39% 23% 39% D+ A- C A+ A+ B B- A+ A
1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29 0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16
Nov
21		 Arkansas St. A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 41% 27% 32% C- A+ B- F F A F F F A+ D- F A+ A- 31% 20% 49% B+ A- F C F A+ C B+ C+
1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14 0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23
Nov
24		 Radford C C+ F C D+ 37% 16% 47% C- D+ B- A+ A D A+ A- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 15% 56% B- A+ A F D+ D- A F B
1.14 61% 25% 35% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.4 .49 21% .52 78% .40 0.92 41% 22% 24% -15 0 0.71 21% 1.5 .32 14% .27 83% .22
Nov
28		 Mississippi St. B C- A F B- 21% 40% 39% F C+ B A+ A+ C A- F B- A B C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% B+ A+ A+ F B+ F D- F F
1.09 54% 48% 25% -2 -4 0.90 31% 1.6 .49 14% .33 65% .22 1.01 56% 39% 26% -6 -2 0.87 20% 1.2 .24 9% .34 76% .26
Dec
3		 Vanderbilt B- A+ D+ F C+ 33% 41% 25% F C- A+ A+ A+ C+ A C A- D+ F F A D- 45% 17% 38% D+ D A+ D- A F A+ D- A+
1.02 71% 33% 15% -5 -3 0.86 40% 1.2 .48 19% .42 74% .31 1.30 81% 60% 27% +10 +1 1.24 21% 1.3 .29 7% .19 83% .16
Dec
7		 Texas A&M B B+ B+ F C+ 34% 31% 34% D- C D A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% A+ A+ C- A+ A- A- F A+ F
1.10 65% 44% 25% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.9 .44 13% .38 93% .35 0.94 67% 40% 27% -3 0 0.95 36% 0.7 .24 19% .49 65% .32
Dec
13		 LSU A B- A A+ A+ 41% 27% 33% C- A A+ D B+ C C+ F C- F C F F F 42% 28% 30% A- F F F F A- A+ F+ A
1.20 60% 46% 44% +8 -1 1.16 43% 0.8 .35 16% .31 59% .18 1.38 62% 57% 47% +13 -1 1.26 43% 1.9 .83 19% .23 83% .19
Dec
21		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 36% 12% 53% C+ A A+ A- A+ B F A F D- A- C F F 31% 27% 42% A D- F F+ F A D C- D
1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14 1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22
Dec
28		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ A+ F A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% F+ A+ A+ F A- A C- B- C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 25% 27% 47% A A+ F A+ C A+ D- B D
1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21 0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26
Jan
3		 North Carolina A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 16% 49% A- A+ D+ B C A B+ C- B C D+ C F F 29% 20% 51% B+ D- A- A+ A+ B- B- C+ B-
1.40 79% 56% 52% +23 0 1.49 22% 1.0 .22 10% .26 69% .18 1.20 67% 40% 46% +12 -1 1.25 28% 0.7 .19 14% .32 68% .22
Jan
7		 Clemson A- D F+ C- C- 34% 27% 39% C C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- D A+ A- A 38% 2% 60% F+ B+ C- B- C C- F B- D-
1.07 50% 27% 31% -7 -1 0.85 35% 1.3 .44 20% .55 90% .49 1.13 67% 0% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 14% .42 71% .30
Jan
10		 Duke A B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 40% 29% F+ A+ A+ C B+ F C- A+ B- B+ C- A+ F C- 32% 14% 55% A C A+ A A+ B+ F D- F
1.08 60% 58% 50% +15 -3 1.27 35% 0.8 .26 30% .19 89% .16 1.18 64% 17% 46% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 19% .48 78% .37
Jan
14		 Virginia Tech B B- A+ F B+ 41% 35% 24% D B C+ D C- B A+ D+ A+ C+ D D+ B C+ 36% 20% 44% C C+ B- B B C- C+ A+ B+
1.11 60% 53% 25% +3 -2 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 16% .39 70% .27 1.10 67% 40% 32% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 14% .30 61% .19
Jan
17		 Virginia B+ F A A+ B 40% 40% 19% D B- A- A+ A+ A D+ A- C C+ A A+ D+ A 29% 22% 49% A+ A D F F B A- F B-
1.09 38% 48% 40% -2 -2 0.92 33% 1.2 .39 13% .26 79% .20 1.16 46% 30% 36% -3 -1 0.93 44% 1.4 .61 18% .23 83% .20
Jan
20		 Wake Forest A D+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F+ A+ B+ B B+ B C- C- C- A B- B C B 38% 17% 45% C- B A+ B A+ C B B+ B+
1.20 53% 57% 46% +12 -1 1.24 35% 1.1 .39 19% .29 72% .21 1.05 55% 40% 35% -1 0 1.02 22% 1.1 .24 15% .28 72% .20
Jan
24		 Florida St. A B- A+ C+ B+ 34% 17% 49% B- B+ B D C A+ A+ B- A+ D+ F A+ C C 30% 21% 48% A C+ F A+ C D B+ A- A-
1.22 61% 56% 35% +4 0 1.11 34% 0.8 .29 10% .38 74% .28 1.18 71% 25% 33% +1 -1 1.02 42% 0.9 .37 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Louisville C+ A+ A C A+ 22% 33% 44% D- A C+ A B F+ F D F B+ F A B C- 35% 11% 54% B C A+ A- A C- D A C
0.99 75% 44% 33% +5 -3 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 21% .15 67% .10 1.18 90% 33% 32% +9 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .24 15% .36 70% .25
Feb
3		 North Carolina St. A C- D+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% B- A+ B F D- A+ F F F C A B F C+ 29% 11% 60% C+ C+ A D B+ D C A+ A-
1.18 54% 33% 57% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.5 .16 14% .20 58% .12 1.20 50% 33% 42% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.4 .31 10% .32 60% .19
Feb
7		 Pittsburgh A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ B- B- B- A- C+ C C+ A C+ A A+ A+ 28% 20% 52% A- A+ C- B+ B- B- F+ F F
1.30 83% 46% 47% +19 -1 1.38 29% 1.0 .29 14% .30 76% .23 1.01 57% 30% 23% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .32 18% .35 79% .28
Feb
10		 Notre Dame A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% B A+ A+ A A+ F C+ C C+ D+ F B+ F F 37% 17% 46% D F A+ F+ B+ C+ A- A+ A
1.29 56% 50% 48% +11 0 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 20% .29 75% .22 1.17 74% 33% 46% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.1 .26 17% .25 57% .14
Feb
14		 Syracuse A F C+ F D- 37% 31% 31% F+ F+ A A+ A+ A+ C B C C- A F F D 31% 21% 48% B+ C- C+ A+ A+ D- B- F D+
1.19 40% 35% 24% -12 -1 0.74 40% 1.7 .68 9% .29 76% .22 1.21 50% 55% 44% +8 -1 1.17 31% 0.5 .17 12% .31 78% .24
Feb
17		 Louisville A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 30% D A+ D- F F A F A+ D- A- A+ B C+ A+ 35% 14% 51% A- A+ C- F F A+ A- D+ B+
1.24 65% 68% 50% +21 -2 1.38 17% 0.4 .07 13% .18 83% .15 1.11 45% 38% 34% -4 +1 0.95 36% 1.6 .56 22% .25 80% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 2.6 3rd
4th 0.5 8.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 4.9 6.3 11.2 5th
6th 1.4 16.0 1.5 19.0 6th
7th 0.9 13.4 13.5 0.1 27.9 7th
8th 0.1 6.2 13.9 1.3 21.6 8th
9th 0.7 4.8 1.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.2 2.6 12.7 29.7 36.2 18.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 18.6% 98.6% 6.2% 92.5% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 6.5 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.3 98.5%
11-7 36.2% 94.8% 3.5% 91.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.3 11.6 9.0 2.9 0.2 1.9 94.6%
10-8 29.7% 87.2% 2.1% 85.0% 9.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 6.1 9.5 7.0 1.4 3.8 86.9%
9-9 12.7% 76.9% 1.4% 75.4% 9.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.9 1.8 2.9 76.5%
8-10 2.6% 51.7% 1.2% 50.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 51.1%
7-11 0.2% 9.4% 9.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.7% 3.2% 86.5% 8.3 10.3 89.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 4.5 0.9 13.5 36.5 32.6 15.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 100.0% 6.0 3.8 24.2 43.5 23.9 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.1% 99.3% 6.6 1.2 11.9 30.0 39.4 15.0 1.7