SMU
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#167
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#194
Pace71.5#95
Improvement+0.3#152

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#229
First Shot-1.8#247
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks+1.2#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#264
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement+0.4#106

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#121
First Shot+3.1#80
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#305
Layups/Dunks+1.4#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-0.1#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 2.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 1.4% 11.3%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 21 - 63 - 13
Quad 32 - 54 - 19
Quad 46 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-60 86%     1 - 0 +5.4 -1.5 +6.8
  Nov 11, 2022 68   @ Dayton L 62-74 16%     1 - 1 -1.1 -1.5 -0.1
  Nov 15, 2022 54   New Mexico L 63-84 26%     1 - 2 -14.2 -13.2 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2022 341   Evansville W 55-47 90%     2 - 2 -6.3 -21.9 +15.7
  Nov 22, 2022 112   Louisiana L 72-76 OT 48%     2 - 3 -3.3 -9.2 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2022 357   Lamar W 75-50 95%     3 - 3 +6.8 -3.7 +11.7
  Nov 30, 2022 42   @ Texas A&M L 64-83 11%     3 - 4 -5.6 -3.4 -2.1
  Dec 03, 2022 327   Jackson St. L 68-69 87%     3 - 5 -13.2 -8.2 -5.0
  Dec 07, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 57-75 30%     3 - 6 -12.4 -5.2 -9.0
  Dec 10, 2022 15   TCU L 75-83 9%     3 - 7 +6.7 +3.3 +4.2
  Dec 22, 2022 85   Iona W 85-81 29%     4 - 7 +9.9 +9.6 +0.0
  Dec 23, 2022 47   Utah St. W 77-74 18%     5 - 7 +13.0 +7.0 +6.1
  Dec 25, 2022 134   @ Hawaii L 57-58 33%     5 - 8 +3.6 -8.1 +11.6
  Jan 01, 2023 235   Tulsa W 92-67 74%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +18.5 +18.5 +0.9
  Jan 05, 2023 1   @ Houston L 53-87 3%     6 - 9 1 - 1 -11.8 -5.1 -8.7
  Jan 08, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 53-85 15%     6 - 10 1 - 2 -20.9 -8.5 -15.4
  Jan 11, 2023 77   Tulane L 88-97 35%     6 - 11 1 - 3 -4.8 +4.7 -8.4
  Jan 14, 2023 56   Cincinnati L 52-54 27%     6 - 12 1 - 4 +4.5 -14.9 +19.4
  Jan 18, 2023 235   @ Tulsa W 79-76 OT 54%     7 - 12 2 - 4 +2.0 -3.7 +5.3
  Jan 22, 2023 109   Wichita St. L 69-71 47%     7 - 13 2 - 5 -1.1 -4.9 +3.9
  Jan 26, 2023 38   @ Memphis L 84-99 10%     7 - 14 2 - 6 -0.8 +5.3 -3.8
  Jan 29, 2023 129   South Florida W 82-80 52%     8 - 14 3 - 6 +1.5 +3.6 -2.2
  Feb 01, 2023 77   @ Tulane L 52-74 18%     8 - 15 3 - 7 -12.4 -19.8 +8.4
  Feb 04, 2023 205   @ East Carolina L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 08, 2023 98   Temple L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 12, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. L 63-69 27%    
  Feb 16, 2023 1   Houston L 57-74 6%    
  Feb 19, 2023 205   East Carolina W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 129   @ South Florida L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 02, 2023 38   Memphis L 70-79 22%    
  Mar 05, 2023 56   @ Cincinnati L 65-77 13%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 6.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 5.6 15.2 7.6 0.8 0.0 29.4 8th
9th 6.9 19.7 9.3 0.9 36.9 9th
10th 3.1 9.4 3.2 0.2 15.8 10th
11th 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 4.2 17.0 28.7 27.2 15.7 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 5.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-11 15.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.6
6-12 27.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.1
5-13 28.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 28.6
4-14 17.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.0
3-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.2% 0.1% 16.0 0.1