Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #128
Pace 74.4 #59
Improvement +2.8 #39

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #176 C C- C- C B-
Defense #8 A- B- B A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.24 #96 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #299 0.65 #290 -2.9 #312
Three Pointers 49% #46 0.98 #225 +3.2 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.7 #161
Freethrows 18.5 #118 64% #345 11.8 #223
Second Chance 30.5% #184 0.97 #266 0.30 #221
Turnovers 16.5% #166
Total Offense -0.5 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 0.90 #4 +6.8 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #84 0.86 #297 -2.5 #332
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.91 #67 +1.8 #116
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #34 +6.2 #35
Freethrows 16.1 #128 69% #82 11.1 #98
Second Chance 23.8% #15 1.12 #271 0.27 #68
Turnovers 20.3% #29
Total Defense +9.6 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #102 -1.4% #66
Shot Type Make Effect 0.1% #178 -10.8% #35
Possession Length 15.3 #37 18.1 #314
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.09 #11
Improvement +2.8 #22 +0.0 #187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 18.9% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.4% 18.7% 6.3%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 9.6
.500 or above 39.5% 59.3% 32.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.5% 41.3% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 3.0% 11.2%
First Four2.8% 4.8% 2.1%
First Round8.2% 16.5% 5.4%
Second Round3.3% 7.1% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 13
Quad 23 - 36 - 16
Quad 33 - 19 - 16
Quad 46 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 297 Western Carolina W 94-63 96%     19.7   1 - 0 +20.4 +5.0 +11.6
  Fri, Nov 7 327 Georgia St. W 74-64 97%     6.2   2 - 0 -3.0 -8.6 +4.9
  Tue, Nov 11 66 Dayton W 74-62 65%     9.0   3 - 0 +17.2 -5.2 +20.7
  Sun, Nov 16 291 Mount St. Mary's W 72-55 95%     0.4   4 - 0 +7.1 -6.4 +12.9
  Fri, Nov 21 12 Louisville L 64-74 18%     -0.5   4 - 1 +8.7 -3.1 +12.1
  Mon, Nov 24 354 NJIT W 104-80 98%     15.6   5 - 1 +7.6 +8.9 -5.3
  Wed, Nov 26 206 Eastern Michigan L 56-64 91%     -9.4   5 - 2 -14.0 -15.0 +0.4
  Mon, Dec 1 164 Tarleton St. W 76-58 88%     8.0   6 - 2 +14.6 +1.9 +12.5
  Fri, Dec 5 93 @Xavier L 74-79 51%     -3.6   6 - 3 +3.7 +2.5 +1.4
  Sat, Dec 13 23 Georgia L 65-84 26%     -0.7   6 - 4 -3.2 -6.6 +5.1
  Wed, Dec 17 294 Alabama St. W 88-51 95%     21.4   7 - 4 +26.9 +8.9 +18.2
  Sun, Dec 21 41 Clemson L 65-68 37%     -13.4   7 - 5 +9.4 +1.6 +7.6
  Mon, Dec 29 155 Lipscomb W 89-62 86%     16.0   8 - 5 +24.3 +13.2 +10.3
  Sat, Jan 3 11 Houston L 63-70 25%    
  Tue, Jan 6 64 @West Virginia L 65-67 41%    
  Sun, Jan 11 53 @Central Florida L 74-78 35%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 Colorado W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 4 Iowa St. L 68-78 17%    
  Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 66-83 5%    
  Sat, Jan 24 70 @Arizona St. L 73-75 43%    
  Wed, Jan 28 28 Baylor L 76-79 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 11 @Houston L 60-73 11%    
  Thu, Feb 5 64 West Virginia W 68-64 62%    
  Sun, Feb 8 53 Central Florida W 77-75 56%    
  Wed, Feb 11 69 @Kansas St. L 77-79 44%    
  Sun, Feb 15 111 Utah W 78-70 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 16 @Kansas L 64-75 15%    
  Tue, Feb 24 21 @Texas Tech L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Feb 28 55 Oklahoma St. W 81-78 60%    
  Tue, Mar 3 10 BYU L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Mar 7 48 @TCU L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.2 0.3 7.0 7th
8th 0.7 3.6 4.1 0.6 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 5.7 1.4 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 1.2 5.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 4.6 5.1 0.6 10.7 11th
12th 0.2 2.4 6.4 1.9 0.0 10.9 12th
13th 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.3 0.2 10.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 7.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 4.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.1 9.3 12.6 16.2 16.5 14.1 10.5 6.6 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.8% 93.9% 2.4% 91.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 93.8%
12-6 1.7% 86.3% 0.6% 85.7% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 86.2%
11-7 3.6% 68.2% 1.4% 66.8% 9.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.1 67.7%
10-8 6.6% 39.7% 0.3% 39.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 4.0 39.5%
9-9 10.5% 15.7% 0.4% 15.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.0 8.9 15.4%
8-10 14.1% 1.7% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.9 1.7%
7-11 16.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.1%
6-12 16.2% 16.2
5-13 12.6% 12.6
4-14 9.3% 9.3
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.5% 0.2% 9.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.5 0.1 90.5 9.4%