Cincinnati
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#56
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#83
Pace69.7#128
Improvement+1.3#39

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#64
First Shot+1.7#115
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#21
Layup/Dunks-0.7#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#61
Freethrows-2.7#345
Improvement+0.0#194

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#88
Layups/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#20
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement+1.3#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.6% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 3.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.7 11.4 12.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 99.2% 93.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 2.1% 0.5%
First Round8.6% 9.7% 6.8%
Second Round2.9% 3.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 22 - 33 - 9
Quad 36 - 29 - 11
Quad 410 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 180   Cleveland St. W 69-58 87%     1 - 0 +7.9 +3.0 +6.3
  Nov 13, 2022 193   Eastern Kentucky W 87-69 89%     2 - 0 +14.1 +4.5 +8.1
  Nov 16, 2022 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 51-64 79%     2 - 1 -12.3 -13.5 -0.2
  Nov 21, 2022 9   Arizona L 93-101 26%     2 - 2 +7.8 +18.2 -9.7
  Nov 22, 2022 29   Ohio St. L 53-81 37%     2 - 3 -15.4 -8.2 -11.7
  Nov 23, 2022 248   Louisville W 81-62 89%     3 - 3 +14.5 +8.2 +6.6
  Nov 30, 2022 320   NJIT W 86-60 96%     4 - 3 +14.3 +12.8 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2022 195   Bryant W 97-71 89%     5 - 3 +21.9 -1.1 +17.6
  Dec 10, 2022 19   Xavier L 77-80 43%     5 - 4 +8.1 +0.2 +8.2
  Dec 14, 2022 297   Miami (OH) W 103-76 95%     6 - 4 +17.0 +24.9 -7.2
  Dec 17, 2022 230   La Salle W 78-60 92%     7 - 4 +11.7 -5.7 +15.4
  Dec 21, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy W 72-54 91%     8 - 4 +12.4 -5.4 +18.6
  Dec 29, 2022 77   Tulane W 88-77 69%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +15.2 +5.8 +8.1
  Jan 01, 2023 98   @ Temple L 61-70 57%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -1.4 -2.1 +0.0
  Jan 05, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. W 70-61 61%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +15.4 +5.7 +10.1
  Jan 08, 2023 1   Houston L 59-72 24%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +3.7 -1.1 +4.0
  Jan 11, 2023 205   East Carolina W 83-55 89%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +23.5 +10.6 +13.8
  Jan 14, 2023 167   @ SMU W 54-52 73%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +4.8 -13.1 +18.0
  Jan 18, 2023 129   @ South Florida W 85-69 66%     13 - 6 5 - 2 +21.0 +16.4 +4.9
  Jan 22, 2023 38   Memphis L 68-75 52%     13 - 7 5 - 3 +1.7 -0.9 +2.7
  Jan 28, 2023 1   @ Houston L 69-75 12%     13 - 8 5 - 4 +16.2 +15.5 +0.0
  Feb 01, 2023 235   Tulsa W 81-55 92%     14 - 8 6 - 4 +19.5 +7.1 +13.3
  Feb 04, 2023 65   Central Florida W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 07, 2023 77   @ Tulane L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 129   South Florida W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 15, 2023 205   @ East Carolina W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 19, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 22, 2023 98   Temple W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 26, 2023 38   @ Memphis L 73-78 31%    
  Mar 05, 2023 167   SMU W 77-65 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 6.8 8.9 2.3 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.0 14.1 3.0 0.0 25.4 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 14.8 3.7 0.1 23.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 11.2 5.1 0.1 18.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.0 4.3 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.0 20.4 28.5 24.7 12.1 2.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.4% 51.5% 9.7% 41.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 46.3%
13-5 12.1% 15.0% 9.3% 5.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 6.3%
12-6 24.7% 9.5% 8.2% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 22.3 1.5%
11-7 28.5% 7.5% 7.3% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 26.4 0.2%
10-8 20.4% 6.0% 6.0% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 19.2
9-9 9.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.5
8-10 2.6% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-11 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 7.2% 2.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 90.7 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 51.5% 10.0 0.2 0.1 1.2 3.4 9.1 17.9 18.3 1.2