Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#268
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.1% 7.2% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 16.1% 16.3% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.7% 46.2% 21.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.6% 45.2% 21.1%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 79.7% 80.4% 47.5%
.500 or above in Conference 50.0% 50.5% 26.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.7% 10.9%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 5.3%
First Round42.8% 43.3% 19.0%
Second Round26.8% 27.2% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 10.3% 3.1%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.2% 0.7%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 273   Western Carolina W 80-59 98%    
  Nov 07, 2025 284   Georgia St. W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 11, 2025 65   Dayton W 69-63 71%    
  Nov 16, 2025 269   Mount St. Mary's W 77-56 97%    
  Nov 21, 2025 11   Louisville L 68-74 30%    
  Nov 24, 2025 357   NJIT W 79-50 99%    
  Nov 26, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 80-58 97%    
  Dec 01, 2025 274   Tarleton St. W 73-52 97%    
  Dec 05, 2025 50   @ Xavier L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 13, 2025 51   Georgia W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 17, 2025 292   Alabama St. W 78-56 97%    
  Dec 21, 2025 42   Clemson L 63-64 49%    
  Dec 29, 2025 188   Lipscomb W 75-58 92%    
  Jan 03, 2026 1   Houston L 56-66 21%    
  Jan 06, 2026 61   @ West Virginia L 63-64 48%    
  Jan 11, 2026 74   @ Central Florida W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 14, 2026 82   Colorado W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 17, 2026 20   Iowa St. L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 21, 2026 10   @ Arizona L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 24, 2026 68   @ Arizona St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 28, 2026 23   Baylor L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 31, 2026 1   @ Houston L 53-69 10%    
  Feb 05, 2026 61   West Virginia W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 08, 2026 74   Central Florida W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 11, 2026 57   @ Kansas St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 15, 2026 88   Utah W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 21, 2026 13   @ Kansas L 63-72 24%    
  Feb 24, 2026 12   @ Texas Tech L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 28, 2026 73   Oklahoma St. W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 03, 2026 9   BYU L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 07, 2026 55   @ TCU L 65-66 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.3 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.0 2.3 0.2 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.5 0.0 7.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.0 4.9 7.3 9.3 11.3 12.5 12.5 11.3 9.0 7.3 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 82.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 47.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 57.3% 42.7% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.7% 99.5% 10.5% 89.0% 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-5 5.0% 99.3% 7.3% 92.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-6 7.3% 97.2% 4.3% 93.0% 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.1%
11-7 9.0% 90.8% 2.2% 88.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.8 90.6%
10-8 11.3% 75.7% 1.2% 74.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 2.7 75.4%
9-9 12.5% 55.9% 0.5% 55.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.0 5.5 55.7%
8-10 12.5% 31.1% 0.4% 30.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.0 8.6 30.8%
7-11 11.3% 9.1% 0.1% 9.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 10.3 9.0%
6-12 9.3% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.4%
5-13 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.1%
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 45.7% 1.8% 43.8% 7.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.8 6.8 7.0 3.5 0.1 54.3 44.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.4 33.6