Cincinnati
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#55
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#92
Pace69.8#165
Improvement+0.2#152

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#123
First Shot-1.1#205
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#47
Layup/Dunks+2.6#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#275
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement-0.4#228

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#30
First Shot+4.7#44
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#65
Layups/Dunks-0.3#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#70
Freethrows+0.4#165
Improvement+0.6#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 30.5% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.9% 25.5% 13.2%
Average Seed 9.6 9.3 10.2
.500 or above 95.1% 97.6% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 83.2% 76.1%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.9% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four6.3% 7.0% 5.2%
First Round22.6% 27.1% 14.9%
Second Round10.8% 13.2% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 6
Quad 23 - 25 - 8
Quad 36 - 211 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 245   Evansville W 65-43 92%     1 - 0 +14.6 -8.9 +24.2
  Nov 13, 2021 159   Georgia W 73-68 84%     2 - 0 +2.5 -0.5 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 89-66 98%     3 - 0 +7.0 +7.4 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2021 293   Presbyterian W 79-45 95%     4 - 0 +23.7 +4.9 +19.5
  Nov 22, 2021 30   Illinois W 71-51 35%     5 - 0 +32.3 +7.0 +26.4
  Nov 23, 2021 24   Arkansas L 67-73 31%     5 - 1 +7.5 -2.7 +10.5
  Nov 27, 2021 135   Monmouth L 59-61 80%     5 - 2 -2.8 -8.2 +5.2
  Dec 01, 2021 136   @ Miami (OH) W 70-67 63%    
  Dec 05, 2021 236   Bryant W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 11, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 14, 2021 305   Florida A&M W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 18, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 21, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 28, 2021 7   @ Houston L 58-70 13%    
  Jan 01, 2022 168   Tulane W 72-61 84%    
  Jan 06, 2022 99   SMU W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 09, 2022 23   @ Memphis L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 12, 2022 178   East Carolina W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 16, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 20, 2022 142   Tulsa W 72-62 80%    
  Jan 25, 2022 150   @ Temple W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 30, 2022 178   @ East Carolina W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 03, 2022 23   Memphis L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 06, 2022 7   Houston L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 09, 2022 225   @ South Florida W 62-54 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 142   @ Tulsa W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 17, 2022 53   Wichita St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 20, 2022 150   Temple W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 225   South Florida W 65-51 89%    
  Mar 03, 2022 99   @ SMU W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.0 4.6 2.0 0.2 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 5.6 8.1 5.2 1.4 0.0 21.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.3 7.4 3.5 0.4 19.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.6 2.3 0.1 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.6 2.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.2 5.6 8.6 11.9 14.4 16.0 13.9 11.0 7.3 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 89.3% 1.5    1.1 0.3
15-3 50.8% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.1
14-4 18.5% 1.4    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 4.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 93.7% 25.5% 68.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.5%
15-3 4.1% 88.0% 19.4% 68.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 85.2%
14-4 7.3% 76.8% 15.8% 61.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.3 1.7 72.4%
13-5 11.0% 53.2% 10.2% 43.0% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 5.1 47.9%
12-6 13.9% 33.4% 7.5% 25.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.8 0.0 9.3 28.0%
11-7 16.0% 16.7% 4.3% 12.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 13.3 12.9%
10-8 14.4% 6.8% 2.5% 4.4% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 13.4 4.5%
9-9 11.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.6 0.4%
8-10 8.6% 1.9% 1.9% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5
7-11 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 25.8% 6.2% 19.6% 9.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 3.0 3.8 4.9 6.8 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 74.2 20.9%