Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#19
Pace71.8#128
Improvement+0.2#156

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#11
First Shot+7.2#26
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#35
Layup/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows+4.0#27
Improvement+2.0#37

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#77
First Shot+1.9#107
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#96
Layups/Dunks+9.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
Freethrows+1.7#90
Improvement-1.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 5.2% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.7% 22.4% 10.2%
Top 6 Seed 38.7% 45.8% 27.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.6% 82.6% 66.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.6% 81.8% 66.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.2 7.1
.500 or above 92.1% 96.3% 85.5%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 67.2% 55.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.4% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.4% 2.7%
First Four6.5% 5.7% 7.8%
First Round73.3% 79.8% 62.9%
Second Round48.3% 54.5% 38.5%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 23.6% 14.4%
Elite Eight7.6% 9.2% 5.0%
Final Four2.9% 3.7% 1.7%
Championship Game1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 10
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 95%     1 - 0 +9.4 +10.0 -2.1
  Sun, Nov 9 56 Washington W 78-69 76%     2 - 0 +15.5 +6.5 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 14 199 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.5 +14.8 -7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 49 Creighton W 81-74 60%     4 - 0 +18.1 +15.2 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 15 St. John's L 81-96 35%     4 - 1 +2.7 +12.9 -9.8
  Wed, Nov 26 55 San Diego St. W 91-81 66%     5 - 1 +19.6 +21.3 -1.8
  Tue, Dec 2 272 Sacramento St. W 110-88 97%     6 - 1 +12.8 +24.8 -13.7
  Sat, Dec 6 74 @Memphis W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Dec 10 231 Norfolk St. W 84-63 98%    
  Fri, Dec 19 333 Alcorn St. W 92-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 198 Southern W 91-72 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 45 @TCU L 76-77 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 5 Iowa St. L 78-81 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 7 Houston L 70-73 39%    
  Tue, Jan 13 50 @Oklahoma St. L 87-88 49%    
  Fri, Jan 16 19 @Kansas L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Jan 20 29 Texas Tech W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 45 TCU W 79-74 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 64 @Cincinnati W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 68 @West Virginia W 73-71 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 63 Colorado W 85-77 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 5 @Iowa St. L 75-84 21%    
  Tue, Feb 10 12 BYU L 80-82 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 10 Louisville L 80-85 32%    
  Tue, Feb 17 71 @Kansas St. W 87-84 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 81 Arizona St. W 86-76 81%    
  Tue, Feb 24 8 Arizona L 81-84 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 65 @Central Florida W 85-83 57%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 @Houston L 67-76 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 121 Utah W 87-73 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.3 3.1 0.3 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 5.0 1.3 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 4.7 2.2 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.2 3.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.5 6.9 10.1 12.3 14.1 13.7 11.9 9.6 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 88.3% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 62.0% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.2% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.9% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.4% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3.9 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.6% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.9% 99.8% 4.4% 95.4% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.7% 98.8% 2.2% 96.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.8%
9-9 14.1% 93.6% 1.6% 92.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 93.5%
8-10 12.3% 77.2% 1.0% 76.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.0 0.1 2.8 77.0%
7-11 10.1% 43.6% 0.6% 43.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 0.2 5.7 43.3%
6-12 6.9% 15.5% 0.2% 15.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 5.8 15.3%
5-13 4.5% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 11.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 1.8%
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.6% 3.9% 72.7% 6.5 1.1 2.7 6.0 7.9 10.0 11.0 10.5 8.8 6.9 5.7 5.5 0.5 23.4 75.6%