Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#32
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#37
Pace72.6#97
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#12
First Shot+6.9#27
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#26
Layup/Dunks-1.7#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows+2.8#36
Improvement+0.5#127

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#76
First Shot+2.7#85
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#138
Layups/Dunks+7.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#80
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-1.3#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 9.7% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 28.4% 28.5% 14.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.9% 70.0% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.2% 69.4% 43.3%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 7.8
.500 or above 88.4% 88.6% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 56.5% 39.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 2.0% 3.2%
First Four7.1% 7.1% 8.9%
First Round66.7% 66.9% 40.8%
Second Round41.9% 42.0% 24.8%
Sweet Sixteen15.8% 15.8% 9.6%
Elite Eight5.7% 5.7% 3.2%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 1.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 10
Quad 26 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 190 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 95%     1 - 0 +10.0 +12.2 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 48 Washington W 78-69 70%     2 - 0 +17.0 +6.2 +10.6
  Fri, Nov 14 194 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.9 +15.1 -7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 38 Creighton W 81-74 54%     4 - 0 +19.4 +16.2 +3.5
  Tue, Nov 25 18 St. John's L 81-96 36%     4 - 1 +2.2 +14.5 -12.0
  Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91-81 62%     5 - 1 +20.4 +21.9 -1.6
  Tue, Dec 2 281 Sacramento St. W 110-88 97%     6 - 1 +12.5 +24.9 -14.0
  Sat, Dec 6 76 @Memphis L 71-78 61%     6 - 2 +3.6 +4.5 -0.9
  Wed, Dec 10 226 Norfolk St. W 97-67 96%     7 - 2 +23.0 +16.3 +4.3
  Fri, Dec 19 333 Alcorn St. W 94-67 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 203 Southern W 92-73 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 54 @TCU W 77-76 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 4 Iowa St. L 78-83 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 8 Houston L 71-74 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 51 @Oklahoma St. W 87-86 51%    
  Fri, Jan 16 17 @Kansas L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Jan 20 27 Texas Tech W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 54 TCU W 80-73 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 69 @Cincinnati W 78-76 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 68 @West Virginia W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 65 Colorado W 87-79 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 @Iowa St. L 75-86 15%    
  Tue, Feb 10 9 BYU L 78-81 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 14 Louisville L 82-86 35%    
  Tue, Feb 17 67 @Kansas St. W 87-85 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 63 Arizona St. W 85-77 75%    
  Tue, Feb 24 3 Arizona L 80-86 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 55 @Central Florida W 84-83 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 8 @Houston L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 119 Utah W 89-75 89%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.3 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.9 2.0 0.2 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.7 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.4 4.5 0.6 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.3 4.0 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 5.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.8 0.2 7.9 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.7 0.1 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.7 5.3 8.4 11.9 13.9 14.6 13.9 11.2 7.6 4.8 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 94.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 90.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 59.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
14-4 19.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.9% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 3.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.8% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.6% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 5.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.2% 99.8% 2.2% 97.6% 6.1 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.9% 98.5% 1.8% 96.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 4.1 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.5%
9-9 14.6% 93.9% 1.6% 92.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.8 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.9 93.8%
8-10 13.9% 70.1% 0.8% 69.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 3.0 2.9 0.1 4.2 69.8%
7-11 11.9% 33.8% 0.2% 33.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.3 0.2 7.9 33.7%
6-12 8.4% 9.0% 0.3% 8.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 7.7 8.7%
5-13 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.6%
4-14 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.7 0.1%
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.9% 2.0% 67.8% 7.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.3 8.2 10.4 11.3 9.6 7.3 6.6 6.3 0.3 30.2 69.2%