Baylor
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#18
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#20
Pace72.0#97
Improvement-0.1#211

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#6
First Shot+5.9#39
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#10
Layup/Dunks-2.6#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#67
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-0.3#331

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#60
First Shot+1.3#140
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#19
Layups/Dunks+6.5#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#230
Freethrows-2.4#308
Improvement+0.2#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.4% 0.6%
#1 Seed 9.7% 11.6% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 24.2% 28.1% 13.1%
Top 4 Seed 55.6% 60.7% 40.8%
Top 6 Seed 76.3% 80.5% 64.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.2% 95.1% 87.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.2% 94.3% 86.2%
Average Seed 4.4 4.1 5.2
.500 or above 96.3% 97.9% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 79.9% 70.6%
Conference Champion 18.3% 20.0% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.5% 4.8%
First Four2.9% 2.3% 4.8%
First Round92.0% 94.3% 85.7%
Second Round72.9% 76.2% 63.4%
Sweet Sixteen41.6% 44.6% 33.0%
Elite Eight20.3% 22.3% 14.7%
Final Four9.3% 10.4% 6.3%
Championship Game4.2% 4.8% 2.5%
National Champion1.8% 2.0% 1.1%

Next Game: Washington St. (Neutral) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 24 - 113 - 10
Quad 32 - 015 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 117-53 99.7%    1 - 0 +42.1 +21.1 +13.6
  Nov 11, 2022 218   Norfolk St. W 87-70 96%     2 - 0 +11.3 +12.2 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2022 217   Northern Colorado W 95-62 96%     3 - 0 +27.4 +1.9 +21.4
  Nov 18, 2022 19   Virginia L 79-86 52%     3 - 1 +7.6 +17.9 -10.7
  Nov 20, 2022 6   UCLA W 80-75 40%     4 - 1 +22.8 +16.6 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2022 356   McNeese St. W 89-60 99%     5 - 1 +11.0 +7.5 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2022 26   @ Marquette L 70-96 46%     5 - 2 -9.9 +4.4 -14.5
  Dec 02, 2022 9   Gonzaga W 64-63 44%     6 - 2 +17.6 -6.0 +23.6
  Dec 06, 2022 144   Tarleton St. W 80-57 93%     7 - 2 +21.6 +7.4 +14.1
  Dec 18, 2022 64   Washington St. W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 20, 2022 227   Northwestern St. W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 28, 2022 243   Nicholls St. W 91-69 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 31   @ Iowa St. W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2023 47   TCU W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 53   Kansas St. W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 11, 2023 15   @ West Virginia L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 14, 2023 37   Oklahoma St. W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 17, 2023 34   @ Texas Tech W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 21, 2023 44   @ Oklahoma W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 23, 2023 13   Kansas W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 16   Arkansas W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 30, 2023 7   @ Texas L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 34   Texas Tech W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 08, 2023 44   Oklahoma W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 47   @ TCU W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 13, 2023 15   West Virginia W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 13   @ Kansas L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 21, 2023 53   @ Kansas St. W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 25, 2023 7   Texas W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 27, 2023 37   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 04, 2023 31   Iowa St. W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 5.2 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.4 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 6.3 9.2 12.0 13.7 14.5 12.9 10.4 7.3 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 99.1% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 90.0% 3.8    3.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 71.0% 5.2    3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 42.5% 4.4    1.9 1.9 0.6 0.0
12-6 15.5% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 11.3 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.2% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.2 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.8 2.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 10.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.3 1.8 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.9% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.0 0.7 3.1 5.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.5% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.8 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.7% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 4.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 12.0% 99.8% 9.7% 90.2% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 3.7 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 9.2% 97.4% 9.0% 88.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.2%
7-11 6.3% 80.1% 6.9% 73.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 78.7%
6-12 3.7% 41.2% 6.8% 34.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 36.9%
5-13 2.0% 11.3% 5.4% 5.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 6.2%
4-14 0.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 93.2% 13.7% 79.6% 4.4 9.7 14.5 16.8 14.6 12.2 8.5 5.2 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 92.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1