Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.7 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +10.4 #56
Pace 69.9 #152
Improvement -2.7 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 B A- B C+ D-
Defense #70 B- B- C B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.33 #27 -1.6 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #32 0.88 #39 +5.3 #10
Three Pointers 39% #216 1.09 #74 +0.7 #150
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.4 #60
Freethrows 0.32 #134 72% #179 0.23 #139
Second Chance 40.0% #9 1.08 #105 0.43 #22
Turnovers 14.2% #41
Total Offense +7.8 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #363 1.15 #170 +8.5 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #1 0.80 #260 -7.4 #365
Three Pointers 38% #265 0.98 #124 +2.2 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #74 +3.3 #74
Freethrows 0.25 #38 74% #276 0.18 #51
Second Chance 28.8% #104 0.98 #107 0.28 #96
Turnovers 16.2% #210
Total Defense +3.9 #70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #345 -6.5% #1
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #25 0.1% #186
Possession Length 16.3 #86 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #35 0.17 #169
Improvement -4.8 #356 +2.0 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 23.3% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.9% 23.2% 8.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 62.6% 70.2% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 5.1% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.5% 12.7%
First Four9.6% 10.8% 5.6%
First Round15.6% 18.4% 6.2%
Second Round6.6% 7.8% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 12
Quad 24 - 38 - 15
Quad 32 - 010 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 93% +6  1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ C- B+ -3 D+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 41 Washington W 78 - 69 60% +4  2 - 0 +18 +8 A- D+ A- +10 A A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 228 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 95% +10  3 - 0 +6 +15 B A+ B -9 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 57 Creighton W 81 - 74 59% +5  4 - 0 +16 +13 D- A+ C+ +4 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 20 St. John's L 81 - 96 29% -12  4 - 1 +2 +14 C- A- A+ -11 F+ F+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 43 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 49% +4  5 - 1 +22 +26 A+ B A+ -4 C A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 276 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 96% +7  6 - 1 +13 +23 A+ A+ C -12 B F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 91 @Memphis L 71 - 78 60% -2  6 - 2 +2 +6 D B B+ -4 A D F
 Wed, Dec 10 306 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 97% +16  7 - 2 +18 +12 B B B- +4 A- B+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 349 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 98% +29  8 - 2 +42 +21 A+ C C +15 A+ B- D
 Sun, Dec 21 267 Southern W 111 - 67 96% +15  9 - 2 +35 +35 A+ A A+ -0 A F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 47 @TCU L 63 - 69 39% -7  9 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +5 D- B A +3 A B C+
 Wed, Jan 7 5 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 27% -3  9 - 4 0 - 2 +8 -3 F A+ B+ +11 A+ B+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 4 Houston L 55 - 77 25% -11  9 - 5 0 - 3 -3 -2 C B- C- -4 A- C D-
 Tue, Jan 13 56 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 46% +13  10 - 5 1 - 3 +28 +29 A+ A+ C+ -1 C+ D+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 15 @Kansas L 62 - 80 18% -11  10 - 6 1 - 4 +3 +4 C+ B- D+ -1 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 18 Texas Tech L 73 - 92 39% -16  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +8 B A C+ -13 F A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 47 TCU L 90 - 97 62% -4  10 - 8 1 - 6 +2 +13 A+ A C- -10 C- A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 53 @Cincinnati L 57 - 67 45% -9  10 - 9 1 - 7 +3 -3 D C A+ +6 B+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 58 @West Virginia W 63 - 53 48% +5  11 - 9 2 - 7 +22 +9 B+ A F+ +15 A+ B+ A
 Wed, Feb 4 83 Colorado W 84 - 76 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 5 @Iowa St. L 71 - 83 12%
 Tue, Feb 10 14 BYU L 79 - 83 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 17 Louisville L 78 - 84 28%
 Tue, Feb 17 85 @Kansas St. W 82 - 80 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 76 Arizona St. W 84 - 77 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 76 - 86 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 @Central Florida L 79 - 82 39%
 Wed, Mar 4 4 @Houston L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 104 Utah W 85 - 75 83%
Totals 15 - 15 6 - 12 +12 +8 B A- B +4 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.3 4.1 5.3 0.7 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 3.9 10.2 3.3 0.1 17.6 10th
11th 1.4 12.0 6.9 0.4 20.8 11th
12th 0.1 7.2 9.9 1.2 0.0 18.5 12th
13th 0.0 2.1 9.3 2.2 0.0 13.6 13th
14th 0.3 4.7 3.0 0.1 8.2 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.2 3.8 15th
16th 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.2 16th
Total 0.3 2.2 9.6 21.3 28.4 22.7 11.5 3.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.5% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
9-9 3.4% 93.0% 0.7% 92.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.2 92.9%
8-10 11.5% 66.4% 0.4% 66.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.6 2.7 0.0 3.9 66.3%
7-11 22.7% 28.9% 0.2% 28.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.7 0.1 16.1 28.8%
6-12 28.4% 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.1 26.5 6.7%
5-13 21.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.2 0.6%
4-14 9.6% 9.6
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 0.2% 19.8% 9.9 80.0 19.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%