LSU
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#14
Pace74.0#74
Improvement-2.2#326

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#15
First Shot+9.2#9
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#218
Layup/Dunks+11.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#230
Freethrows+1.9#70
Improvement-2.0#333

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot+9.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#294
Layups/Dunks+8.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows+1.0#131
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.3% 1.3%
#1 Seed 16.6% 17.8% 8.3%
Top 2 Seed 35.0% 37.0% 20.0%
Top 4 Seed 62.0% 64.3% 45.1%
Top 6 Seed 79.6% 81.4% 66.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 97.7% 91.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.3% 97.2% 90.4%
Average Seed 4.0 3.9 4.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.7% 86.5%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.6% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round96.5% 97.2% 91.1%
Second Round78.7% 79.9% 70.2%
Sweet Sixteen49.6% 51.1% 38.6%
Elite Eight27.3% 28.3% 19.6%
Final Four14.2% 14.7% 10.6%
Championship Game7.0% 7.3% 4.7%
National Champion3.3% 3.4% 2.2%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 6
Quad 27 - 114 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 263   Louisiana Monroe W 101-39 98%     1 - 0 +53.4 +18.1 +31.5
  Nov 12, 2021 138   Texas St. W 84-59 94%     2 - 0 +24.0 +15.4 +10.0
  Nov 15, 2021 171   Liberty W 74-58 96%     3 - 0 +12.7 -0.1 +12.6
  Nov 18, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 85-46 99%     4 - 0 +25.8 -0.8 +23.0
  Nov 22, 2021 68   Belmont W 83-53 87%     5 - 0 +34.3 +7.1 +25.8
  Nov 26, 2021 67   Penn St. W 68-63 OT 81%     6 - 0 +12.3 +1.1 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2021 81   Wake Forest W 75-61 82%     7 - 0 +20.8 +1.5 +18.5
  Dec 01, 2021 76   Ohio W 83-70 88%    
  Dec 11, 2021 88   Georgia Tech W 77-67 84%    
  Dec 14, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 94-61 99.9%   
  Dec 18, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 222   Lipscomb W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 21   @ Auburn L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 04, 2022 12   Kentucky W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 18   Tennessee W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 12, 2022 14   @ Florida L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 24   Arkansas W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 19, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 18   @ Tennessee L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 26, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 90   @ TCU W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2022 69   Mississippi W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 77   @ Vanderbilt W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 08, 2022 80   @ Texas A&M W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 38   Mississippi St. W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 16, 2022 159   Georgia W 84-65 95%    
  Feb 19, 2022 98   @ South Carolina W 81-73 78%    
  Feb 23, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 132   Missouri W 80-63 93%    
  Mar 02, 2022 24   @ Arkansas L 78-79 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 13   Alabama W 82-78 64%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.3 7.0 5.1 1.9 0.6 21.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.4 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.8 5.7 1.2 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.6 4.0 5.6 1.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 5.6 1.3 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.1 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.8 3.1 2.2 0.3 6.4 7th
8th 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 4.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.1 10.7 13.5 14.8 15.2 12.5 9.3 5.4 1.9 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.9% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 94.9% 5.1    4.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 74.7% 7.0    4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 42.4% 5.3    2.0 2.3 0.9 0.1
13-5 11.6% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 13.5 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.4% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.2 100.0%
15-3 9.3% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.7 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.5% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 2.1 3.8 5.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.8 2.0 4.4 4.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.8% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.7 0.4 2.2 3.7 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.5% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 4.9 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
10-8 10.7% 99.6% 6.4% 93.2% 6.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 7.1% 98.4% 5.6% 92.8% 7.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.3%
8-10 4.6% 87.0% 2.4% 84.7% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.6 86.7%
7-11 2.6% 63.0% 2.4% 60.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 62.1%
6-12 1.1% 33.7% 0.2% 33.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 33.6%
5-13 0.4% 11.9% 11.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.9%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.0% 18.6% 78.4% 4.0 16.6 18.3 14.2 12.9 9.9 7.6 6.1 3.9 3.4 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 96.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 75.6 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3