Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.9 267
Results Rating -7.3 286
Consistency 0.17 261
Pace 63.9 301
Improvement -3.5 302

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 178 D+ C- B- D D+
Defense D 319 D- D+ C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 D 52% 314 -3.6 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 71 C- 37% 214 +1.0 126
Three Pointers 40% 203 C+ 35% 124 +0.3 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 271 C- -1.7 237
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.98 248
Second Chance C 30.7% 169 C- 0.98 255 C- 0.30 198
Opponents' Steals B 7.9% 46
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 244
Turnovers B- 15.6% 111
Freethrows D 0.27 291 C- 71% 239 D 0.19 293
Total Offense C -0.5 178

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 36% 339 C- 12.0% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 354 B- 3.9% 103
Three Pointers F 71% 355 F+ 1.8% 348
Total F 42% 360 C- 6.0% 233


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 29 D 63% 311 +5.7 349
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 261 D- 43% 332 -0.1 180
Three Pointers 37% 287 D+ 36% 291 -0.6 156
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 318 D- +4.0 333
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 336
Second Chance D+ 32.5% 276 D+ 1.10 285 D+ 0.36 296
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 261
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 166
Turnovers C- 15.7% 240
Freethrows D- 0.37 338 C 73% 220 D- 0.27 338
Total Defense D -5.4 319

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 255 D 7.5% 319
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 40 C- 3.8% 245
Three Pointers D+ 87% 271 D+ 0.4% 277
Total C 56% 192 D+ 4.2% 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 336 16.7 72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 282 0.24 353
Consistency 0.14 308 0.17 364
Improvement -0.6 225 -2.8 309

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 268 267 267
Results Rating Rank 286 286 285
Conference Record 7 - 15 7 - 15 7 - 15
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 10
Quad 47 - 99 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 89 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 9% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -25 D -5 D- F A+ F -22 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 44 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B- +8 D+ -3 C- D+ B A +10 A+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 20 337 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 74% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B+ D+ B- F -11 F B+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 92 High Point L 80 - 91 14% -5  37% 1 - 3 D+ -5 A- +11 D A+ A+ F -17 D- F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 80 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 17% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B +8 B- +4 A- A C B +5 C+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 241 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 35% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 F A A- D -5 F+ B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 201 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 26% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C -0 B+ +9 B+ A- C- F+ -9 F B A+
 Mon, Dec 15 43 @TCU L 65 - 69 3% +4  76% 2 - 6 B+ +12 B- +5 B+ D+ B B+ +7 A F+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 317 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 74% +10  93% 3 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C+ C+ A+ B- +3 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 286 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 67% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- B- B C -0 B C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 290 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 67% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 D F A+ A +11 B A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 134 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 16% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -8 C -0 F C- A F+ -9 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Lamar L 51 - 63 34% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -14 F -16 D+ F D C+ +1 C- B A-
 Mon, Jan 12 106 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 11% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -3 F -23 F F C- A+ +20 A+ D A-
 Sat, Jan 17 279 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 65% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 C+ +2 D- A+ D- F+ -10 F C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 302 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 71% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -34 F -12 F C A+ F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 177 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 43% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -12 D+ -2 B D F F+ -10 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 290 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 45% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -11 D+ -4 C D F D -6 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 134 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 33% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 D- -14 A+ +15 A+ D- D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 177 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 23% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +4 B- +4 A- F B- C+ +0 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 80 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 7% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D+ -7 C+ +3 B- A- F F -12 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 286 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 44% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -16 D+ -4 F D C+ F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 241 Nicholls St. L 83 - 91 57% -9  0% 7 - 16 5 - 12 F+ -16 A- +10 D A- A+ F -26 F C+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 201 New Orleans L 64 - 78 47% -8  4% 7 - 17 5 - 13 F -19 F+ -10 D+ F D F -11 B F F
 Sat, Feb 21 302 @East Texas A&M W 82 - 73 49% +5  94% 8 - 17 6 - 13 C+ +3 A+ +24 C+ A+ B+ F -19 F F F
 Mon, Feb 23 279 @Northwestern St. L 49 - 54 42% -0  44% 8 - 18 6 - 14 D -9 F -19 F F+ D+ A +9 B- A- D
 Sat, Feb 28 238 Lamar W 72 - 60 57% +10  92% 9 - 18 7 - 14 C+ +4 C+ +2 A F F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Mon, Mar 2 106 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 76 25% -2  23% 9 - 19 7 - 15 D+ -7 B- +5 C- A- A+ F -13 F D C+
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 15 -6 C +0 C+ C- D+ D -5 C+ C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C- C+ C- 36% 47% 40% D+ D+ C C- C- B- D C- D D D D- D+ D- 45% 18% 37% D D- D+ D+ D+ C- D- C D-
1.08 52% 37% 35% -2 -1 0.98 31% 1.0 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.16 63% 43% 36% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.1 .36 16% .37 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- B+ F D- 26% 28% 46% D- D- F F F A+ B+ F C F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B F F F F D- F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana D+ F+ F A+ C+ 26% 41% 33% F C- D B- D+ B F B F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D- A+ F A C B- F A F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B- B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- B+ C+ F+ D+ B- A+ F A F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C B+ D- D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +7 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ A- D D+ 32% 22% 46% D- D B+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ F D- F B+ D 56% 8% 35% F D- F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. B- A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- B+ A A C A+ D A- B B F A+ C 42% 29% 29% A- C+ A- F D A+ B- F C-
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D+ F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F F A B A A- A+ D- A+ D A A+ F D- 49% 10% 41% F F+ A F B- F F D- F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -16 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B+ F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- C- C+ C- C F+ F+ F F F 50% 24% 26% D- F D+ A+ B A+ F F+ F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- D+ F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ D+ D+ D+ B F F F B+ F A A+ A 44% 24% 31% B- A A F F+ D F C F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona B+ D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% C- C+ B D+ C+ A+ A+ D- A+ B- D A- F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C-
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C- F F A+ C- 31% 22% 47% C- C- D A+ B- B F C F C B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B F A+ C+ C- C- F F+
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D+ B- A- F D 36% 20% 45% D D F D- F A+ F B- F+ A B+ B+ A A- 53% 19% 28% F+ B D A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F C- A C C C F+ D- F A- C+ 35% 8% 58% D- C F D- F D+ D F F
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C D+ C- F F D F+ F F C+ A F D+ C+ 47% 22% 31% F C- D- A+ B A- F C+ F
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D- F+ F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F C- C F D+ A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% C- A+ D D+ D A- F A+ F
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C+ F A+ B D 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F+ F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D- C+ B+ F D+ F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B F F 39% 24% 37% D- F C+ D+ C A+ D+ A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F+ D- F
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ C- B+ A- B 39% 18% 43% C B B F D F F F F F+ B F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A- F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D+ F A+ A+ C 39% 18% 43% C- C A- F D F A+ F B D B- A- A B 61% 15% 24% F C+ F F F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D- B- A- B+ F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B F F F F F+ F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- B F A+ A- 52% 18% 30% B- A- F+ F F B- B C- B- C+ D B+ D+ D 43% 28% 30% B D+ A A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C+ F D+ A+ B- 39% 9% 52% B+ B- A+ D- A- F A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F B+ B+ A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B- F D C+ D- A+ B- F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F C+ B+ B
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18
Feb
14		 Nicholls St. A- F A+ D+ F+ 49% 7% 44% A- D B- A A- A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F 65% 6% 29% F F A F C+ F F D+ F
1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17 1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25
Feb
16		 New Orleans F+ D D+ D+ D 38% 17% 46% C D+ C F F D A+ D- A- F A F A B 35% 26% 39% C+ B C- F F F F B F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32 1.21 44% 50% 28% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42
Feb
21		 East Texas A&M A+ F A+ A- B- 31% 21% 48% F+ C+ A A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A F F+ D+ F F 31% 20% 49% B F F F F F A B A-
1.43 46% 56% 40% +4 -1 1.10 43% 2.1 .91 14% .33 94% .30 1.28 67% 40% 42% +9 -1 1.18 40% 1.1 .43 10% .16 63% .10
Feb
23		 Northwestern St. F F F F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F F+ D- F+ D+ D+ D- D A D A+ B C+ 34% 36% 30% A- B- B A+ A- D F+ C D-
0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20 0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27
Feb
28		 Lamar C+ B+ F A+ A 45% 13% 43% B+ A F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ B- F F A+ F 38% 33% 29% D+ F D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A-
1.13 67% 20% 47% +10 +2 1.25 23% 0.8 .18 24% .51 80% .41 0.94 71% 53% 23% +5 -2 1.09 38% 0.5 .18 24% .19 56% .10
Mar
2		 Stephen F. Austin B- A- A F D+ 44% 15% 41% B C- F A+ A- A+ F F F F D+ D F F 21% 34% 45% A F D+ D D C+ F+ C+ D
1.13 67% 50% 18% -4 +1 0.96 20% 2.1 .43 7% .16 33% .05 1.26 60% 44% 48% +11 -3 1.19 34% 1.1 .38 13% .29 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15 100.0% 100.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%