Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.6 275
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 297
Pace 64.9 276
Improvement -6.4 355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 D+ C- B- D D+
Defense D 322 D D C- F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 D- 51% 327 -3.8 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 66 C- 37% 209 +1.2 110
Three Pointers 39% 216 B- 36% 107 +0.3 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 273 C- -1.6 234
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 250
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 156 D 0.93 315 C- 0.29 227
Turnovers B- 15.6% 106
Freethrows D 0.27 289 D+ 70% 262 D 0.19 304
Total Offense C- -1.1 195

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 349 C 11.0% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 355 C+ 4.1% 111
Three Pointers F+ 74% 347 D- 1.7% 337
Total F 42% 358 C 5.7% 198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 13 D+ 62% 287 +6.3 353
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 D- 43% 336 -0.5 153
Three Pointers 37% 295 D+ 36% 251 -1.2 128
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 344 D +3.4 309
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 323
Second Chance C- 32.1% 250 D 1.13 314 D 0.36 307
Turnovers C- 15.8% 239
Freethrows F+ 0.38 349 C- 73% 225 F+ 0.28 348
Total Defense D -5.5 322

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 265 D+ 8.2% 290
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 59 C- 4.1% 219
Three Pointers C- 86% 247 C- 0.6% 224
Total C 56% 202 D+ 4.7% 248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 313 16.7 70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 273 0.24 350
Improvement -2.2 #296 -4.2 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 299 276 251
Conference Record 5 - 17 6 - 16 8 - 14
Conference Finish 12 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 52% 29% 70%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 42 - 11
Quad 46 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 96 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 9% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -26 D -6 D- F A+ F -22 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 37 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B +9 D+ -3 C D+ B A +11 A+ C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 341 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 70% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B+ D+ B F -12 F B F+
 Sat, Nov 22 89 High Point L 80 - 91 12% -5  37% 1 - 3 C- -5 A- +11 D- A+ A+ F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 83 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 16% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +2 A- A C B+ +6 B- D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 265 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 35% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -10 D -5 F A A- D -5 D- B- F+
 Mon, Dec 8 209 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 26% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C -1 B+ +8 B+ A- C- F+ -9 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 50 @TCU L 65 - 69 4% +4  76% 2 - 6 B +10 B- +4 B+ D+ B- B+ +5 A F D-
 Sun, Dec 21 311 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 70% +10  93% 3 - 6 B+ +12 B+ +9 C+ B- A+ B +4 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 281 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 63% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -1 C -0 C- B- B+ C -1 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 294 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 65% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 D -5 D- F+ A+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 18% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -10 C- -1 F C- A F -10 C- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 207 @Lamar L 51 - 63 26% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -12 F -17 D+ F D- B- +3 C B+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 9% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -2 F -22 F F D+ A+ +20 A+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 17 280 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 62% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 C +1 D- A+ D F+ -8 F C+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 304 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 67% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -33 F -10 F C+ A+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 45% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 B D F F -11 F F A
 Tue, Jan 27 294 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 42% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -11 D -5 C- D F D -5 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 150 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 35% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 F+ -16 A+ +15 A+ D- D F -30 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 24% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +3 B- +4 A F B C -1 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 83 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 7% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D+ -7 C +1 B B+ F F -11 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 281 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 40% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -16 D+ -2 F D+ B- F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 265 Nicholls St. L 83 - 91 58% -9  0% 7 - 16 5 - 12 F+ -17 B+ +8 D- A- A+ F -26 F B- F
 Mon, Feb 16 209 New Orleans L 64 - 78 47% -8  4% 7 - 17 5 - 13 F -20 F -10 D+ F D+ F -11 B F F
 Sat, Feb 21 304 @East Texas A&M L 72 - 73 45%
 Mon, Feb 23 280 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 207 Lamar L 71 - 72 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 98 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 76 20%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 15 -7 C- -1 F C- D+ D -5 B- D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C- B- C- 36% 49% 39% D+ D+ C+ D C- B- D D+ D D D+ D- D+ D 46% 17% 37% D- D C- D D C- F+ C- F+
1.07 51% 37% 36% -2 -1 0.97 31% 0.9 .29 16% .27 70% .19 1.16 62% 43% 36% +3 +1 1.11 32% 1.1 .36 16% .38 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- A- F D- 26% 28% 46% D- D- F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B- F F+ F F D- F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana D+ F+ F A+ C+ 26% 41% 33% F C D C+ D+ B F B F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D- A+ F A- C- B- F A F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B- B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- B+ C+ F+ D+ B A+ F A F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C- B F+ D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +8 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ B+ D D 32% 22% 46% D D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ F D F B+ D+ 56% 8% 35% F D F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. C+ A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- B A- A C A D A- B+ B F A+ C+ 42% 29% 29% B+ B- A F D A+ B- F C-
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F+ F A- B A A- A+ D- A+ D A A+ F D 49% 10% 41% F D- A- F+ B- F+ F F+ F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -15 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B+ F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- C- C D+ C F+ F F F F 50% 24% 26% D- F D+ A+ B+ A+ F F+ F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- C- F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ D+ C- D+ B- F F F B+ F A A+ A 44% 24% 31% B- A A- F F D- F C F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona B+ D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% D+ C+ B C- B- A+ A+ F A+ B D A- F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C F F A+ C 31% 22% 47% C- C- D A+ B- B+ F C F C B- A+ A+ A- 50% 16% 34% F B F A C+ D+ C- F D-
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D B- A- F D- 36% 20% 45% D D- F D+ F+ A+ F B- F+ A+ B+ B+ A A 53% 19% 28% F+ B+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F C- A C+ C- C+ F D- F B+ C 35% 8% 58% D- C- F D F D D F F
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C+ D+ C F F D- F+ F F B- A F C- B- 47% 22% 31% F C D- A+ B+ A F B- F+
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D D- F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F D+ C- F+ D+ A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% C- A+ D+ D D B+ F A+ F+
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C F A+ B D- 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D C+ B F C- F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B F F 39% 24% 37% D- F B- C- C+ A+ D+ A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F+ D F+
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ C- A- A- B 39% 18% 43% C B B F D F F F F F B- F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D F A+ A+ C- 39% 18% 43% D+ C- A- F D F A+ F B+ D B- A- A B+ 61% 15% 24% F C+ F F F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D B A- A- F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B+ F F F F F+ F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- B F A+ A 52% 18% 30% B- A F+ F F B B- C- C+ C D B D D- 43% 28% 30% B D A A+ A C- F+ F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C F D+ A+ B- 39% 9% 52% B+ B A+ F+ B+ F A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F A- B A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B- F D+ B- D- A+ B- F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F C+ B+ B
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18
Feb
14		 Nicholls St. B+ F A+ D F 49% 7% 44% A- D- C+ A A- A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F 65% 6% 29% F F A- F+ B- F F+ D+ F+
1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17 1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25
Feb
16		 New Orleans F D D+ C- D 38% 17% 46% C D+ C F F D+ A+ D- A- F A F A B+ 35% 26% 39% B- B C- F F F F B F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32 1.21 44% 50% 28% -5 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 2.7 1.5 4.2 7th
8th 3.1 8.7 0.6 12.5 8th
9th 15.2 2.2 17.4 9th
10th 6.7 12.0 0.1 18.7 10th
11th 3.0 19.0 2.3 0.0 24.4 11th
12th 12.3 10.4 0.1 22.8 12th
Total 15.4 36.1 32.8 13.7 2.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
8-14 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
7-15 32.8% 32.8
6-16 36.1% 36.1
5-17 15.4% 15.4
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 30.0% 16.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 15.4%