Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.5#351
Expected Predictive Rating-18.6#350
Pace66.6#248
Improvement-1.1#261

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#313
First Shot-0.7#203
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#354
Layup/Dunks-6.7#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement-0.6#238

Defense
Total Defense-10.2#354
First Shot-8.9#355
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#260
Layups/Dunks-5.3#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#351
Freethrows+2.8#30
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.3% 20.7% 13.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 40.8% 34.7% 44.5%
First Four1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 45 - 135 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 141   Texas St. L 57-75 10%     0 - 1 -19.2 -8.5 -13.2
  Nov 12, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 60-87 0.3%    0 - 2 -5.2 -3.9 -1.1
  Nov 20, 2021 19   Texas Tech L 62-84 1%     0 - 3 -8.0 -0.2 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. L 76-79 33%     0 - 4 -14.0 -4.2 -9.8
  Nov 27, 2021 192   Montana St. L 64-83 14%     0 - 5 -23.1 -9.5 -14.5
  Nov 28, 2021 269   Portland L 68-77 26%     0 - 6 -17.8 -11.2 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2021 128   @ Abilene Christian L 65-98 4%     0 - 7 -27.6 -7.2 -18.5
  Dec 11, 2021 320   Grambling St. L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 16, 2021 186   @ Rice L 67-85 5%    
  Dec 20, 2021 1   @ Purdue L 54-93 0.0%   
  Dec 28, 2021 12   @ Texas L 50-84 0.1%   
  Jan 15, 2022 299   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 20, 2022 354   Houston Baptist W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 22, 2022 328   McNeese St. L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 27, 2022 340   @ Northwestern St. L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 315   @ SE Louisiana L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 230   Nicholls St. L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 05, 2022 282   New Orleans L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 10, 2022 230   @ Nicholls St. L 66-81 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 282   @ New Orleans L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 17, 2022 340   Northwestern St. W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 315   SE Louisiana L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 24, 2022 354   @ Houston Baptist L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 328   @ McNeese St. L 71-79 24%    
  Mar 05, 2022 299   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 5 - 20 4 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.0 0.2 7.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 5.9 3.1 0.3 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.6 4.4 0.4 0.0 19.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 8.4 10.0 4.5 0.4 0.0 26.3 7th
8th 1.7 6.3 9.6 7.5 2.8 0.3 28.2 8th
Total 1.7 6.5 12.4 16.8 18.0 16.2 12.2 7.8 4.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-2 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 64.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 30.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-5 6.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.3% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-4 1.1% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 0.9
9-5 2.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.2 2.1
8-6 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 4.5
7-7 7.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 7.7
6-8 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 12.1
5-9 16.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-10 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.9
3-11 16.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
2-12 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
1-13 6.5% 6.5
0-14 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%