Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#183
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#222
Pace62.8#339
Improvement+0.7#125

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#116
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#67
Layup/Dunks-2.3#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#222
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement+0.6#133

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#305
First Shot-3.7#295
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#201
Layups/Dunks-4.1#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#39
Freethrows-2.9#333
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 9.4% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 50.3% 76.1% 48.4%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 81.8% 68.4%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.5% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.1% 2.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.6% 9.4% 5.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 69 @Colorado St. L 64-98 12%     0 - 1 -22.9 -3.6 -21.6
  Sun, Nov 16 23 @Indiana L 61-69 4%     0 - 2 +10.2 +2.1 +7.4
  Thu, Nov 20 324 Southern Indiana W 87-81 77%     1 - 2 -3.3 +7.9 -11.5
  Sat, Nov 22 97 High Point L 80-91 25%     1 - 3 -5.7 +11.9 -18.4
  Mon, Dec 1 73 McNeese St. W 71-67 27%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +8.8 +6.5 +2.6
  Sat, Dec 6 254 @Nicholls St. L 67-74 52%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -9.3 -0.5 -9.3
  Mon, Dec 8 241 @New Orleans L 83-84 49%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -2.5 +9.6 -12.1
  Mon, Dec 15 47 @TCU L 63-79 7%    
  Sat, Dec 20 258 Northern Arizona W 74-67 74%    
  Tue, Dec 30 273 SE Louisiana W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 263 Houston Christian W 74-67 74%    
  Mon, Jan 5 206 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 @Lamar L 66-67 46%    
  Mon, Jan 12 140 @Stephen F. Austin L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 283 Northwestern St. W 75-67 76%    
  Mon, Jan 19 302 East Texas A&M W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 208 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-68 65%    
  Mon, Jan 26 263 @Houston Christian W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 206 UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-71 64%    
  Mon, Feb 2 208 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 73 @McNeese St. L 64-77 13%    
  Mon, Feb 9 273 @SE Louisiana W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 254 Nicholls St. W 75-68 72%    
  Mon, Feb 16 241 New Orleans W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 302 @East Texas A&M W 74-71 61%    
  Mon, Feb 23 283 @Northwestern St. W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 220 Lamar W 69-64 67%    
  Mon, Mar 2 140 Stephen F. Austin L 71-72 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.8 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.2 10.4 12.4 13.4 12.9 11.2 8.8 5.7 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
19-3 84.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
18-4 53.3% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
17-5 29.3% 0.9    0.4 0.5 0.1
16-6 12.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.4% 30.8% 30.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-4 1.3% 27.3% 27.3% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
17-5 3.2% 22.6% 22.6% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.5
16-6 5.7% 17.3% 17.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.7
15-7 8.8% 12.1% 12.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.8
14-8 11.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.3
13-9 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.2
12-10 13.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.1
11-11 12.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.2
10-12 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.3
9-13 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.2
8-14 5.4% 5.4
7-15 3.5% 3.5
6-16 1.8% 1.8
5-17 0.9% 0.9
4-18 0.3% 0.3
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.7 0.4 94.4 0.0%