Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#314
Expected Predictive Rating-10.4#320
Pace66.4#253
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#170
First Shot+1.0#149
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#224
Layup/Dunks-4.1#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#70
Freethrows-3.3#335
Improvement+0.9#107

Defense
Total Defense-8.6#362
First Shot-8.6#363
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks-2.7#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#325
Freethrows-4.3#351
Improvement-0.6#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 21.9% 25.7% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 36.2% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 5.6% 21.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 411 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 185   @ California Baptist L 78-83 17%     0 - 1 -3.2 +8.4 -11.8
  Nov 12, 2024 357   Prairie View W 84-81 80%     1 - 1 -14.2 -0.9 -13.4
  Nov 16, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-64 87%     2 - 1 +7.6 +10.5 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 301   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 35%     2 - 2 -5.3 +3.5 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2024 206   @ South Alabama L 63-84 19%     2 - 3 -20.1 -4.0 -17.7
  Nov 27, 2024 324   Western Illinois W 86-75 53%     3 - 3 +1.9 +13.7 -11.1
  Dec 05, 2024 297   Northwestern St. L 70-72 57%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -12.1 +1.9 -14.3
  Dec 07, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-69 77%    
  Dec 10, 2024 2   @ Duke L 57-89 0.2%   
  Jan 04, 2025 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 06, 2025 280   @ Lamar L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 13, 2025 223   Nicholls St. L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 20, 2025 166   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-83 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 27, 2025 344   @ New Orleans W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 65-82 7%    
  Feb 08, 2025 227   SE Louisiana L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 10, 2025 344   New Orleans W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 17, 2025 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 24, 2025 280   Lamar W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 03, 2025 297   Northwestern St. W 74-72 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.2 7.9 11.3 13.3 13.8 13.3 10.8 8.3 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 71.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 36.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 12.5% 12.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.8% 12.7% 12.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 1.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
13-7 3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
12-8 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.6
11-9 8.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
10-10 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.7
9-11 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
8-12 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
7-13 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 11.3% 11.3
5-15 7.9% 7.9
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%