Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.3 #90
Expected Predictive Rating +7.4 #81
Pace 60.1 #364
Improvement -3.7 #344

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #43 A+ B- B C- C+
Defense #204 C A- C D- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.33 #36 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.78 #142 -2.0 #273
Three Pointers 51% #27 1.28 #3 +11.7 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #5 +10.6 #5
Freethrows 18.4 #132 76% #74 14.0 #98
Second Chance 32.5% #121 1.15 #72 0.37 #76
Turnovers 17.5% #230
Total Offense +7.2 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #309 1.25 #281 +1.7 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #174 0.78 #229 -0.4 #220
Three Pointers 46% #54 0.96 #135 -1.5 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 14.4 #51 64% #6 9.3 #24
Second Chance 26.5% #56 1.18 #316 0.31 #169
Turnovers 14.3% #309
Total Defense -1.0 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #122 -0.8% #104
Shot Type Make % Effect 19.5% #3 1.4% #205
Possession Length 19.1 #340 18.2 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #188 0.11 #21
Improvement -4.5 #357 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.8% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.2
.500 or above 95.0% 98.0% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 84.0% 61.2%
Conference Champion 2.8% 4.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round5.6% 7.1% 4.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 25 - 46 - 8
Quad 36 - 212 - 11
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 149 Incarnate Word W 98-64 80%     17.7   1 - 0 +31.4 +28.8 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 9 256 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 91%     8.4   2 - 0 +14.4 +25.3 -9.3
  Wed, Nov 12 248 Cal Poly W 93-79 90%     9.3   3 - 0 +5.8 +10.6 -5.7
  Sun, Nov 16 235 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 76%     11.9   4 - 0 +11.7 +18.3 -4.4
  Fri, Nov 21 267 Denver L 81-83 92%     -2.0   4 - 1 -11.0 +11.3 -22.7
  Wed, Nov 26 60 Virginia Tech L 64-66 40%     -2.7   4 - 2 +6.9 +3.9 +2.8
  Thu, Nov 27 94 Wichita St. W 76-70 52%     10.2   5 - 2 +11.8 +19.6 -6.6
  Fri, Nov 28 88 South Florida W 83-68 49%     7.8   6 - 2 +21.5 +14.4 +7.4
  Sat, Dec 6 78 Colorado W 91-86 58%     4.0   7 - 2 +9.3 +21.5 -12.0
  Tue, Dec 9 245 Dartmouth W 76-55 90%     9.2   8 - 2 +13.1 +8.2 +7.2
  Sat, Dec 20 36 @Utah St. L 58-100 17%     -24.5   8 - 3 0 - 1 -25.7 -1.5 -28.3
  Tue, Dec 30 83 Nevada L 62-75 59%     -3.9   8 - 4 0 - 2 -9.0 -3.4 -6.9
  Sat, Jan 3 99 @Grand Canyon W 70-60 42%     10.3   9 - 4 1 - 2 +18.3 +12.1 +7.4
  Tue, Jan 6 62 New Mexico W 73-72 51%    
  Fri, Jan 9 125 UNLV W 79-72 74%    
  Tue, Jan 13 171 @Fresno St. W 74-70 65%    
  Fri, Jan 16 52 @Boise St. L 66-73 26%    
  Tue, Jan 20 330 Air Force W 76-56 97%    
  Fri, Jan 23 36 Utah St. L 71-75 36%    
  Wed, Jan 28 51 @San Diego St. L 69-76 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 111 @Wyoming L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 193 San Jose St. W 78-67 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 330 @Air Force W 73-59 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 111 Wyoming W 75-70 69%    
  Wed, Feb 18 125 @UNLV W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 San Diego St. L 72-73 45%    
  Tue, Feb 24 171 Fresno St. W 77-67 82%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 @San Jose St. W 75-70 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 62 @New Mexico L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Mar 7 52 Boise St. L 69-70 45%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 6.0 6.3 1.3 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 6.1 6.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 16.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.9 6.3 2.1 0.1 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.5 7.8 11.8 15.7 16.5 15.5 11.8 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 78.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 60.9% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.1% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 68.9% 21.6% 47.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 60.3%
16-4 1.4% 39.1% 20.4% 18.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 23.4%
15-5 3.9% 23.2% 16.2% 7.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 3.0 8.3%
14-6 7.8% 14.5% 11.7% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 6.6 3.2%
13-7 11.8% 9.2% 8.2% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.9 0.2 10.7 1.1%
12-8 15.5% 6.0% 5.7% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 14.6 0.4%
11-9 16.5% 3.5% 3.5% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 15.9
10-10 15.7% 2.2% 2.2% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 15.4
9-11 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.7
8-12 7.8% 1.5% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 4.5% 0.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 5.0% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.9 1.2%