Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#41
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#32
Pace70.2#157
Improvement-0.7#249

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#10
First Shot+11.9#3
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#316
Layup/Dunks+1.2#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#24
Freethrows+3.6#18
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#134
First Shot+0.3#168
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#130
Layups/Dunks+2.2#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#307
Freethrows+2.8#35
Improvement-0.7#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 13.3% 13.5% 4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.3% 59.1% 31.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.9% 45.8% 19.2%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.4
.500 or above 99.3% 99.4% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 95.2% 87.5%
Conference Champion 33.6% 34.0% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four8.4% 8.5% 5.2%
First Round54.0% 54.8% 27.8%
Second Round27.1% 27.5% 14.2%
Sweet Sixteen9.5% 9.6% 4.5%
Elite Eight3.7% 3.7% 2.4%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 37 - 6
Quad 38 - 115 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 182   Oral Roberts W 109-80 90%     1 - 0 +25.0 +22.7 +0.1
  Nov 12, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-71 99%     2 - 0 -2.6 +3.7 -7.3
  Nov 19, 2021 211   Bradley W 66-60 87%     3 - 0 +3.8 -7.7 +11.4
  Nov 21, 2021 87   Creighton W 95-81 66%     4 - 0 +20.1 +23.6 -3.7
  Nov 22, 2021 149   Northeastern W 71-61 80%     5 - 0 +11.4 +6.8 +5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 179   Northern Colorado W 88-79 90%     6 - 0 +5.3 +17.7 -11.8
  Dec 01, 2021 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-66 97%    
  Dec 04, 2021 43   St. Mary's W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 11, 2021 37   Mississippi St. L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 17, 2021 135   Tulsa W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 20, 2021 18   Alabama L 80-84 35%    
  Dec 28, 2021 230   @ New Mexico W 87-76 84%    
  Jan 04, 2022 256   Air Force W 77-58 96%    
  Jan 07, 2022 67   @ Boise St. L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 12, 2022 47   Utah St. W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 289   @ San Jose St. W 84-70 90%    
  Jan 19, 2022 230   New Mexico W 90-73 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 25, 2022 88   Nevada W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 28, 2022 148   UNLV W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 31, 2022 91   @ Wyoming W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 04, 2022 50   San Diego St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 08, 2022 88   @ Nevada W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 11, 2022 121   Fresno St. W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 148   @ UNLV W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 23, 2022 91   Wyoming W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 01, 2022 50   @ San Diego St. L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 67   Boise St. W 73-67 70%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.5 10.5 7.9 3.8 1.1 33.6 1st
2nd 0.3 3.6 7.9 7.1 2.6 0.3 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 5.0 3.2 0.4 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 4.0 2.4 0.3 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.9 8.3 10.7 14.3 15.4 15.4 13.1 8.2 3.8 1.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.1
16-2 96.9% 7.9    6.9 1.0
15-3 80.0% 10.5    7.1 3.2 0.2
14-4 48.4% 7.5    3.2 3.2 0.9 0.1
13-5 16.9% 2.6    0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 22.5 8.6 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.8% 99.2% 47.2% 52.0% 4.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
16-2 8.2% 97.3% 42.5% 54.8% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.3%
15-3 13.1% 92.0% 36.2% 55.7% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.2 1.1 87.4%
14-4 15.4% 81.4% 30.4% 51.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 2.9 73.3%
13-5 15.4% 61.7% 22.3% 39.5% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 50.8%
12-6 14.3% 44.1% 18.3% 25.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 1.6 0.1 8.0 31.7%
11-7 10.7% 28.9% 14.2% 14.7% 11.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.6 17.1%
10-8 8.3% 16.7% 10.6% 6.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 6.8%
9-9 4.9% 8.8% 7.8% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 1.1%
8-10 2.7% 5.5% 5.5% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.3% 6.3% 6.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.3% 24.3% 34.0% 8.7 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.0 7.8 9.1 11.8 6.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 41.7 44.9%