Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#91
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#82
Pace60.5#360
Improvement-4.0#352

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#34
First Shot+7.7#20
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks-1.3#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.9#4
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement-2.7#344

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#228
First Shot-3.5#299
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#56
Layups/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#329
Freethrows+3.2#24
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.6% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 92.9% 96.4% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 79.6% 57.8%
Conference Champion 4.3% 6.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
First Round6.3% 7.6% 4.3%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 25 - 55 - 8
Quad 36 - 211 - 11
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 162 Incarnate Word W 98-64 81%     1 - 0 +30.7 +27.1 +5.9
  Sun, Nov 9 221 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 88%     2 - 0 +16.2 +25.7 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 12 257 Cal Poly W 93-79 91%     3 - 0 +5.6 +9.5 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 16 270 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 81%     4 - 0 +10.1 +16.4 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 21 290 Denver L 81-83 92%     4 - 1 -11.7 +11.5 -23.6
  Wed, Nov 26 74 Virginia Tech L 64-66 44%     4 - 2 +5.7 +2.2 +3.2
  Thu, Nov 27 98 Wichita St. W 76-70 52%     5 - 2 +11.5 +20.7 -8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 79 South Florida W 83-68 47%     6 - 2 +21.9 +14.5 +7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 73 Colorado W 91-86 55%     7 - 2 +9.7 +21.9 -12.0
  Tue, Dec 9 247 Dartmouth W 76-55 90%     8 - 2 +13.1 +8.3 +7.0
  Sat, Dec 20 33 @Utah St. L 58-100 17%     8 - 3 0 - 1 -25.5 -1.9 -27.8
  Tue, Dec 30 89 Nevada W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 3 87 @Grand Canyon L 70-73 37%    
  Tue, Jan 6 66 New Mexico W 76-75 53%    
  Fri, Jan 9 133 UNLV W 81-74 75%    
  Tue, Jan 13 184 @Fresno St. W 77-72 68%    
  Fri, Jan 16 51 @Boise St. L 67-74 26%    
  Tue, Jan 20 322 Air Force W 77-58 96%    
  Fri, Jan 23 33 Utah St. L 72-76 34%    
  Wed, Jan 28 52 @San Diego St. L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 103 @Wyoming L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 197 San Jose St. W 77-66 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 322 @Air Force W 74-61 88%    
  Sat, Feb 14 103 Wyoming W 76-72 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 133 @UNLV W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 52 San Diego St. L 72-73 47%    
  Tue, Feb 24 184 Fresno St. W 80-69 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 197 @San Jose St. W 74-69 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 66 @New Mexico L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 Boise St. L 70-71 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.8 3.6 0.7 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.8 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.5 5.9 1.4 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.6 5.6 1.6 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.4 1.5 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.9 11.5 14.2 15.2 13.9 11.4 8.2 4.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 85.3% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 61.1% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.9% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 80.7% 28.1% 52.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.2%
17-3 0.8% 52.6% 18.7% 33.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 41.7%
16-4 2.4% 34.1% 16.1% 17.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 21.4%
15-5 4.6% 24.6% 14.7% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 3.5 11.6%
14-6 8.2% 14.7% 10.9% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 7.0 4.3%
13-7 11.4% 10.0% 8.5% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.9 0.2 10.3 1.7%
12-8 13.9% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.1 0.2%
11-9 15.2% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 14.6 0.1%
10-10 14.2% 2.3% 2.3% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.9
9-11 11.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-12 7.9% 1.2% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8
7-13 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 5.2% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 93.0 1.9%