Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#293
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#231
Pace70.8#135
Improvement+1.2#104

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#273
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#325
Layup/Dunks-2.0#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#241
Freethrows+1.4#100
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#280
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#303
Layups/Dunks-1.1#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-4.1#349
Improvement+0.9#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 15.3% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 53.7% 72.1% 49.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 76.3% 65.5%
Conference Champion 13.7% 19.7% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.9% 5.3%
First Four6.0% 5.8% 6.0%
First Round8.2% 12.6% 7.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 5
Quad 414 - 1015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ DePaul L 78-80 OT 8%     0 - 1 +6.6 +2.9 +3.8
  Nov 07, 2024 260   Bucknell L 69-75 OT 57%     0 - 2 -14.6 -8.2 -6.1
  Nov 11, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 63-77 21%     0 - 3 -12.5 -9.4 -3.0
  Nov 13, 2024 333   @ Bellarmine W 71-69 50%     1 - 3 -4.9 -5.0 +0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-93 16%     1 - 4 -15.4 +1.9 -17.7
  Nov 22, 2024 224   South Dakota W 92-83 49%     2 - 4 +2.5 +5.4 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 87-77 40%     3 - 4 +5.7 +1.4 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 68-77 19%    
  Dec 19, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 79-74 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 328   Tennessee Martin W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 31, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 16, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 76-67 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 23, 2025 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 28, 2025 266   @ Morehead St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   @ Western Illinois L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 316   Eastern Illinois W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 273   SIU Edwardsville W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.7 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 4.1 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 1.4 4.7 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.6 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.8 12.2 11.7 10.0 8.6 6.1 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.1% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 94.9% 2.0    1.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 83.3% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.1
15-5 60.6% 3.7    2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 30.6% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1
13-7 8.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 8.5 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 71.4% 71.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 50.7% 50.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 47.5% 47.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.1% 41.7% 41.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.2
16-4 3.8% 35.3% 35.3% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.5
15-5 6.1% 29.9% 29.9% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.2
14-6 8.6% 26.6% 26.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.3
13-7 10.0% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9 8.2
12-8 11.7% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.6
11-9 12.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.7 11.5
10-10 11.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.4
9-11 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 9.8
8-12 8.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.9
7-13 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 8.9 88.7 0.0%