Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.1 341
Expected Predictive Rating -17.1 357
Pace 68.9 169
Improvement +0.7 161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 355 F D C- D+ C-
Defense D+ 257 C- C- C- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 279 F 45% 364 -6.4 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 90 D- 32% 345 -0.6 209
Three Pointers 42% 160 F+ 28% 354 -3.1 287
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 255 F -9.5 365
1st FG Attempt F 0.82 364
Second Chance C- 28.6% 233 F 0.83 360 D 0.24 331
Turnovers C- 17.4% 215
Freethrows C 0.31 175 F 65% 358 D+ 0.20 260
Total Offense F+ -9.3 355

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 348 F 17.9% 363
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 127 C- 5.8% 235
Three Pointers F 63% 365 D+ 1.2% 274
Total F 43% 355 F 8.2% 358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 4 C- 59% 214 +6.1 350
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 174 B 35% 73 -0.7 136
Three Pointers 31% 361 D 37% 305 -3.5 47
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 290 C- +1.2 229
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 242
Second Chance D+ 33.4% 299 C+ 0.98 110 C- 0.33 229
Turnovers C- 15.8% 241
Freethrows C- 0.32 242 D+ 74% 268 D+ 0.24 259
Total Defense D+ -2.9 257

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 21 C- 9.2% 239
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 74 B+ 8.2% 41
Three Pointers B+ 77% 21 C- 0.6% 223
Total A- 45% 12 C+ 6.3% 124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 270 15.9 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.25 359
Improvement +2.1 #89 -1.4 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 349 340 327
Conference Record 3 - 17 4 - 16 5 - 15
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 4%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 44 - 175 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 78 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -19 F -18 F F B- C+ +0 C- B- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 358 VMI L 74 - 78 73% +3  77% 0 - 2 F -23 F -20 F F B+ C- -2 C C F+
 Wed, Nov 12 291 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 23% -9  12% 0 - 3 F -19 F -17 F D+ D C -0 C+ F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 275 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 30% -8  1% 0 - 4 D- -13 D+ -3 C- F B F+ -9 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 22 106 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 7% -11  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 C- -2 C+ F B- D+ -4 F+ A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 161 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 9% +6  92% 1 - 5 B +11 F+ -9 D- B- F+ A+ +20 A+ B D
 Wed, Dec 3 284 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 22% -13  1% 1 - 6 F -18 F+ -8 D- F+ A- F+ -9 F D+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 211 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 13% -11  7% 1 - 7 F -22 F -17 F F B- D- -7 D- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 45% -4  20% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -26 F -16 F D+ B F -10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 286 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 42% +5  84% 1 - 9 0 - 2 D- -14 F -17 F F F B- +2 A- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 17% -6  0% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -6 F -14 F C- F A- +8 A- D- A
 Sat, Jan 3 260 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 19% -5  10% 1 - 11 0 - 4 D+ -6 B- +4 B- D D F+ -9 C+ F D
 Thu, Jan 8 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 30% -5  20% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -15 C -0 D+ B+ F+ F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 217 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 28% -2  32% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F -23 F -13 F C C F -13 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 314 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 29% -0  30% 2 - 13 1 - 6 B +11 D -6 F F+ A+ A+ +17 A A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 247 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 16% -4  14% 2 - 14 1 - 7 D+ -8 F+ -8 F+ F+ C- C+ +0 D A F
 Thu, Jan 22 320 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 54% +3  73% 2 - 15 1 - 8 F -21 F -28 F D+ F A- +7 A- B+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 362 Western Illinois W 96 - 64 79% +22  99% 3 - 15 2 - 8 B +11 B +7 B- D+ D B- +3 B B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 260 Lindenwood L 60 - 73 37% -8  6% 3 - 16 2 - 9 F -22 F -23 F C- F B- +3 B B C
 Sat, Jan 31 248 SIU Edwardsville L 46 - 58 34% -0  55% 3 - 17 2 - 10 F -20 F -22 F F F C -0 C D B+
 Thu, Feb 5 217 @Tennessee Martin L 54 - 76 13% -13  0% 3 - 18 2 - 11 F -22 F -13 F F C F -11 D+ F B
 Sat, Feb 7 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 90 14% -5  40% 3 - 19 2 - 12 F -26 D -6 F D+ B- F -21 D+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 247 Tennessee St. L 71 - 73 33% +3  74% 3 - 20 2 - 13 D -10 D -6 D+ D C+ D+ -4 A- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 314 Tennessee Tech L 74 - 82 51% -0  48% 3 - 21 2 - 14 F -20 C- -1 D- D B F -20 F F F
 Thu, Feb 19 362 @Western Illinois W 77 - 70 60% -2  8% 4 - 21 3 - 14 D+ -8 C +0 F A+ C+ D- -8 F F B
 Sat, Feb 21 320 @Eastern Illinois L 63 - 68 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 286 @Morehead St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 73 25%
Totals 5 - 23 4 - 16 -12 F+ -9 D- F C- D+ -3 F+ F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F D- F+ F 35% 46% 42% C- F C- F D C- C F D+ D+ C- B D C- 48% 21% 31% D+ C- D+ C+ C- C- C- D+ D+
0.95 45% 32% 28% -9 -1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 17% .31 65% .20 1.13 59% 35% 37% +1 +1 1.06 33% 1.0 .33 16% .32 74% .23
Nov
5		 Butler F F F D F 33% 22% 45% C- F F+ F F B- B C+ B C+ A- B+ F C 64% 11% 25% F C- D- A B- B+ F B- F
0.77 37% 15% 31% -14 -1 0.72 20% 0.6 .12 16% .27 71% .19 1.17 50% 33% 54% +2 +3 1.11 40% 0.9 .36 17% .47 69% .32
Nov
7		 VMI F C- C F F 33% 20% 48% C- F F F F B+ D- B D C- B+ C- B C+ 41% 14% 46% D C D+ B- C F+ D+ B C-
0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19 1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22
Nov
12		 South Dakota F F F F F 44% 19% 37% D F F A+ D+ D A+ A- A+ C D A+ B+ B- 61% 24% 14% D C+ F+ D F+ A- F D- F
0.88 43% 20% 21% -17 +1 0.69 22% 1.6 .34 18% .48 82% .39 1.06 63% 8% 29% -5 +1 0.94 34% 1.1 .37 21% .70 80% .56
Nov
20		 Incarnate Word D+ B+ A+ F C- 42% 21% 37% D+ C- F F F B D B D+ F+ F+ D F F 55% 27% 18% D F D B C D+ F B F
1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25 1.19 64% 43% 44% +8 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30
Nov
22		 Illinois-Chicago C- B+ A+ F C 38% 9% 53% B+ C+ C F F B- B F F D+ D+ F C D 60% 13% 27% F F+ C+ A+ A C+ F F F
0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13 1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47
Nov
26		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F C+ D 27% 22% 51% D D- B- C+ B- F+ A+ F B+ A+ A A- A+ A+ 27% 36% 37% B+ A+ D- A+ B D A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 20% 35% -6 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27 0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10
Dec
3		 Western Michigan F+ F C- A+ D 33% 23% 44% D- D- F B- F+ A- A+ F A- F+ D- F D- F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F D+ D- A B+ A
1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28 1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13
Dec
7		 Indiana St. F F F C F 33% 25% 41% D+ F F F F B- D+ A- C D- D- A+ F+ D- 52% 9% 39% D+ D- C+ A+ A+ F A F C+
0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18 1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16
Dec
18		 Arkansas Little Rock F D F C- F 38% 15% 48% C- F F A+ D+ B B- F F+ F F F F F 41% 17% 41% F F F A+ A+ A+ F B- F
0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14 1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24
Dec
20		 Morehead St. F F F C+ F 17% 25% 58% F F B- F F F A+ B+ A+ B- A- A C A 54% 28% 18% D- A- A- B B+ F F A- D-
0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33 1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
1		 SIU Edwardsville F F F F F 44% 19% 37% B+ F C+ D C- F A+ F B- A- A+ B- F A 40% 33% 27% C A- F B D- A F A+ F
0.83 42% 25% 25% -14 +1 0.74 34% 0.9 .29 26% .51 52% .26 0.89 28% 33% 42% -11 -2 0.78 38% 0.9 .36 23% .51 58% .29
Jan
3		 Lindenwood B- A- B+ F B- 46% 21% 32% C- B- C+ F D D F A+ D+ F+ B- A+ C- B- 70% 19% 11% F C+ F F F D A+ F A-
1.12 69% 42% 28% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .27 20% .24 86% .21 1.16 54% 10% 33% -8 +2 0.91 46% 1.5 .69 17% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Southeast Missouri St. C D- A+ F D 41% 14% 45% C+ D+ A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 50% 24% 26% C F B- A+ A+ F F A+ D
1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42 1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Martin F F D- D- F 30% 23% 48% C- F C- C+ C C A+ F A+ F B A+ F D- 53% 14% 33% F F+ F D F C+ F F F
0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36 1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33
Jan
15		 Tennessee Tech D F F D F 55% 8% 37% A+ F C- F F+ A+ C F F A+ A F A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F A C+ A+ A+ C C A+ B+
1.04 45% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.85 30% 0.9 .28 4% .29 47% .14 0.79 46% 50% 16% -14 +1 0.76 29% 0.6 .17 19% .27 60% .16
Jan
17		 Tennessee St. F+ F C+ C+ F+ 35% 17% 48% D F+ C F F+ C- F F F C+ D+ A C+ D+ 52% 20% 29% F D A+ C+ A F B+ B B+
0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11 1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16
Jan
22		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 33% 18% 49% D F D B- D+ F A+ F+ A+ A- D+ B+ A+ B 28% 50% 22% A+ A- A C+ B+ C F D+ F
0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34 0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29
Jan
23		 Western Illinois B C- A+ A B 42% 18% 40% C- B- C+ F D+ D D- A D+ B- C+ A+ A+ B+ 42% 33% 25% C B A- D+ B- F F+ D- F
1.31 60% 55% 42% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21 0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Lindenwood F F B D- F 49% 19% 32% C F A- F C- F B+ F C B- F A+ A+ B- 44% 35% 21% A B D+ A+ B C F F F
0.77 23% 40% 29% -19 +1 0.66 41% 0.8 .31 27% .39 59% .23 0.94 70% 17% 18% -7 -1 0.85 33% 0.9 .29 19% .43 78% .34
Jan
31		 SIU Edwardsville F B+ F F F 17% 38% 46% F F D F F F D- B- D C C F A+ C+ 49% 27% 24% F C B- F D B+ F F F
0.76 63% 17% 23% -15 -4 0.65 28% 0.6 .18 20% .27 77% .21 0.96 55% 45% 20% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 22% .38 78% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Martin F F F D F 23% 34% 43% F F C- F F C A C- A- F B- F C D 28% 26% 46% B+ D+ F D F B D+ A+ B-
0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29 1.18 54% 50% 33% +1 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18
Feb
7		 Southeast Missouri St. D F B- F F 44% 18% 38% C F C+ F D+ B- C+ D C- F F C A+ D+ 53% 23% 23% C- D+ F F F F F F F
0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28 1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45
Feb
12		 Tennessee St. D C- A- D+ D+ 49% 23% 28% D D+ A F D C+ A+ F C D+ A+ A- F A- 37% 42% 21% A- A- F D F A F F F
1.07 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 18% .63 44% .28 1.10 38% 28% 44% -9 -3 0.79 46% 1.1 .51 21% .54 86% .46
Feb
14		 Tennessee Tech C- D+ F A+ D 34% 36% 30% F D- C F D B A+ C- A+ F F C+ C- F 45% 23% 32% D+ F F F F F F+ D F+
1.15 56% 18% 50% -1 -2 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 12% .48 74% .35 1.27 71% 36% 33% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 14% .34 79% .27
Feb
19		 Western Illinois C D A+ F F 57% 13% 30% B+ F A+ C A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ D- C+ D F F 46% 21% 33% F F C+ F F B A- A A
1.17 56% 50% 14% -9 +2 0.89 52% 1.1 .58 14% .53 67% .35 1.06 50% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.6 .37 20% .23 58% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 40.0 41.5 16.2 2.2 99.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 11th
Total 40.2 41.5 16.2 2.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 2.2% 2.2
5-15 16.2% 16.2
4-16 41.5% 41.5
3-17 40.2% 40.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2%
Lose Out 40.2%