Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#270
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#248
Pace73.0#62
Improvement-0.7#268

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#223
First Shot-2.6#267
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#92
Layup/Dunks-5.8#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#39
Freethrows-1.3#280
Improvement+0.4#111

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#302
First Shot-4.4#312
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#152
Layups/Dunks-0.4#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#264
Freethrows-2.4#332
Improvement-1.1#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 81.4% 88.5% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.5% 84.5%
Conference Champion 17.5% 21.4% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 34 - 54 - 6
Quad 411 - 715 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 91-97 5%     0 - 1 +6.8 +6.2 +1.4
  Nov 13, 2022 130   Southern Illinois W 71-53 31%     1 - 1 +17.5 +1.8 +15.8
  Nov 16, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 70-82 16%     1 - 2 -7.0 -4.3 -2.7
  Nov 22, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-80 19%     1 - 3 -10.1 -7.4 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2022 243   @ Bowling Green W 69-57 35%     2 - 3 +10.5 -7.5 +17.8
  Nov 30, 2022 256   @ Western Illinois L 78-86 37%     2 - 4 -10.1 -3.1 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2022 317   @ Chicago St. L 61-78 50%     2 - 5 -22.7 -13.0 -10.7
  Dec 11, 2022 117   Indiana St. W 88-85 OT 29%     3 - 5 +3.0 +1.4 +1.1
  Dec 19, 2022 359   IUPUI W 87-74 83%     4 - 5 -2.8 +4.6 -7.5
  Dec 20, 2022 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 59-83 26%     4 - 6 -23.0 -9.6 -14.8
  Dec 29, 2022 251   Southeast Missouri St. W 86-81 57%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -2.5 +0.2 -3.2
  Dec 31, 2022 343   @ Eastern Illinois L 80-91 63%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -20.0 -0.7 -18.7
  Jan 05, 2023 278   @ Morehead St. L 80-84 41%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -7.4 +2.8 -10.1
  Jan 07, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 54%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -13.7 -10.2 -3.6
  Jan 12, 2023 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-67 76%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -5.9 -6.1 +0.3
  Jan 14, 2023 296   Tennessee Martin W 80-66 66%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +4.1 -4.1 +7.0
  Jan 19, 2023 352   @ Lindenwood W 81-65 68%     8 - 9 4 - 3 +5.5 +14.4 -7.0
  Jan 21, 2023 238   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-72 33%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +8.8 +3.4 +4.4
  Jan 26, 2023 343   Eastern Illinois W 78-74 80%     10 - 9 6 - 3 -10.5 +2.5 -12.9
  Jan 28, 2023 296   @ Tennessee Martin L 83-86 OT 46%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -7.5 -1.6 -5.5
  Feb 02, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 81-75 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 278   Morehead St. W 73-70 63%    
  Feb 09, 2023 303   @ Tennessee Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 352   Lindenwood W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 16, 2023 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 23, 2023 303   Tennessee Tech W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 25, 2023 321   @ Tennessee St. W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.8 7.8 2.0 17.5 1st
2nd 0.3 6.4 10.1 1.8 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 12.1 3.4 0.1 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 9.6 6.5 0.3 17.6 4th
5th 0.4 5.2 7.7 0.7 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.9 1.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.7 12.6 22.4 26.6 20.7 9.6 2.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 99.6% 2.0    1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 80.7% 7.8    3.9 3.2 0.7 0.0
12-6 33.0% 6.8    0.9 2.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 6.6 6.1 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 2.0
13-5 9.6% 9.6
12-6 20.7% 20.7
11-7 26.6% 26.6
10-8 22.4% 22.4
9-9 12.6% 12.6
8-10 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0%
Lose Out 0.1%