Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 207
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 247
Pace 64.1 302
Improvement +1.1 148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 224 D C+ C+ F+ F
Defense C- 199 C- C C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 F+ 49% 356 -7.0 357
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 20 C+ 40% 101 +6.1 5
Three Pointers 34% 319 C+ 35% 130 -3.0 280
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.3 358 C- -1.6 233
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 300
Second Chance B- 33.7% 88 C- 0.98 258 C+ 0.33 133
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 143
Freethrows F+ 0.23 355 C 72% 205 F+ 0.17 352
Total Offense C- -1.9 224

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 194 D 13.8% 323
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 40% 23 B- 3.4% 68
Three Pointers D+ 80% 273 D- 1.6% 323
Total C- 54% 208 C- 6.1% 231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 C- 60% 230 +1.5 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 160 B 34% 42 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 39% 239 D 37% 302 +0.7 221
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 172 C- +1.4 237
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance C 30.5% 181 C- 1.05 220 C 0.32 204
Turnovers C 16.7% 191
Freethrows F+ 0.39 353 B+ 69% 41 D- 0.27 332
Total Defense C- -0.9 199

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 59% 348 C 11.4% 157
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 332 A- 9.5% 20
Three Pointers C 84% 172 A+ 3.3% 5
Total D- 64% 338 B+ 7.8% 42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 252 17.7 261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 176 0.20 282
Improvement +4.0 #26 -3.0 #318

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 238 206 172
Conference Record 8 - 14 9 - 13 11 - 11
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 4% 7% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 14% 23% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 412 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 50 @TCU L 65 - 78 7% -2  42% 0 - 1 C +1 B- +4 C C A+ D+ -4 D F A
 Mon, Nov 17 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 79% +9  96% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D -5 F F+ B+ B+ +6 C+ D B
 Sun, Nov 23 183 @Montana W 68 - 63 33% +0  47% 2 - 1 B- +7 D- -8 F A+ D A+ +14 A+ A B-
 Mon, Nov 24 170 Oakland L 68 - 83 42% -4  23% 2 - 2 F+ -16 F -12 F A- F D+ -3 C+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 303 Louisiana W 65 - 55 79% -2  36% 3 - 2 C -1 D -5 D- D A B+ +5 C- F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 60% -1  41% 3 - 3 0 - 1 D- -13 F -18 F D+ B B- +3 C D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 43 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6% -10  11% 3 - 4 C- -3 C +1 B C- D+ C- -3 D+ C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 150 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 50% -12  0% 3 - 5 0 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C+ F D+ F -10 F A D+
 Sat, Dec 20 240 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 67% -7  10% 3 - 6 D -10 D+ -2 F A+ C- D- -8 F D- B
 Mon, Dec 29 280 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 54% +12  87% 4 - 6 1 - 2 B +11 C+ +3 A D- D A +9 B- B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 304 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 60% -0  57% 5 - 6 2 - 2 C+ +2 C- -2 F A+ A- B +4 A- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 83 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 12% -4  27% 5 - 7 2 - 3 C- -2 A- +10 F A+ A+ F -14 F D- C
 Mon, Jan 5 281 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 54% -9  7% 5 - 8 2 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F B- C- C -1 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 275 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 74% +5  81% 6 - 8 3 - 4 C+ +2 F -11 F+ D- F A+ +15 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 294 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 77% -1  39% 7 - 8 4 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 D+ F+ F A- +8 A C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Nicholls St. W 90 - 80 50% +5  80% 8 - 8 5 - 4 B- +7 A+ +15 A+ A+ C- D- -7 D F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 209 @New Orleans L 76 - 89 39% -4  15% 8 - 9 5 - 5 D- -13 D+ -3 C D- C F+ -10 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 98 Stephen F. Austin L 81 - 88 32% -4  7% 8 - 10 5 - 6 C- -5 A +12 B- A+ C+ F -17 F A- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 304 East Texas A&M W 82 - 61 79% +7  93% 9 - 10 6 - 6 B +10 B +7 B+ B D B +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 83 McNeese St. L 63 - 64 26% -3  13% 9 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ D+ A+ C -0 A- B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 281 SE Louisiana W 73 - 54 75% +8  96% 10 - 11 7 - 7 B +9 B+ +8 C- B+ A+ B +4 B- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 74 - 84 15% -10  11% 10 - 12 7 - 8 C- -2 B +6 B C- B F+ -8 F A- D+
 Mon, Feb 9 280 Northwestern St. L 68 - 70 75% -3  13% 10 - 13 7 - 9 D- -12 D- -8 D- F C+ D+ -4 C C F
 Sat, Feb 14 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 76 37% -12  3% 10 - 14 7 - 10 D- -12 D- -6 F+ F D D- -6 D C- F
 Mon, Feb 16 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 70 28% -1  27% 10 - 15 7 - 11 C- -2 C+ +3 C C- A+ D -6 B B F
 Sat, Feb 21 209 New Orleans W 76 - 73 62%
 Mon, Feb 23 265 Nicholls St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 @Incarnate Word W 72 - 71 54%
 Mon, Mar 2 294 @Houston Christian W 69 - 67 56%
Totals 12 - 17 9 - 13 -3 C- -2 C- C- F C- -1 C+ C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- F+ C+ C+ C- 31% 58% 34% F D B- C- C+ C+ F+ C F+ C- C- B D C- 40% 21% 39% C C- C C- C C F+ B+ D-
1.06 49% 40% 35% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.0 .33 16% .23 72% .17 1.10 60% 34% 37% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.0 .32 17% .39 69% .16
Nov
10		 TCU B- D+ C+ A+ B+ 24% 49% 27% F C B D- C A+ D D+ D D+ C C F D 44% 18% 38% C- D F F F A F B+ F
1.01 50% 40% 43% +3 -5 0.98 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 67% .14 1.21 60% 38% 41% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.3 .55 20% .47 67% .31
Nov
17		 Louisiana Monroe D D+ A- F F+ 28% 33% 38% F F D+ F F+ B+ C C- C B+ C+ A+ D+ B- 43% 22% 35% C- C+ D- C D B F A+ D+
1.10 59% 50% 26% 0 -2 0.97 33% 0.9 .31 13% .25 69% .17 0.92 52% 18% 35% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .45 54% .24
Nov
23		 Montana D- F D+ A F 33% 50% 17% F F B+ A+ A+ D F F F A+ B A+ A- A+ 38% 18% 44% C A+ D- A+ A B- F A+ F
0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07 0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37
Nov
24		 Oakland F F D F F 27% 31% 42% F+ F B A- A- F B+ D B- D+ F A+ A+ C+ 50% 17% 33% D C+ C- F F C+ F A- F
0.96 50% 38% 27% -7 -2 0.85 39% 1.1 .44 23% .29 69% .20 1.17 71% 25% 19% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.6 .53 16% .53 69% .37
Dec
3		 Louisiana D F A+ B+ F+ 67% 22% 11% B- D- B- F D A A- F C B+ D+ A+ D+ C 27% 23% 50% F+ C- B- F F+ A+ B D- B-
1.06 43% 60% 40% -4 +2 0.98 35% 0.8 .26 13% .45 63% .28 0.90 58% 20% 36% -2 -1 0.95 24% 1.3 .31 28% .18 75% .14
Dec
6		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F F F C F+ 28% 39% 33% F F F+ B+ D+ B F F+ F B- B- D+ B- C- 35% 25% 40% B+ C A F D+ A- D- D+ D-
0.81 46% 28% 33% -8 -3 0.80 21% 1.1 .24 18% .18 67% .12 0.95 50% 40% 31% -4 -1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 22% .40 68% .28
Dec
10		 San Diego St. C F F A+ B+ 15% 25% 60% F+ B D+ C C- D+ B B- B+ C- F B F D 31% 37% 31% A- D+ D- A C+ C F B- F
0.93 38% 15% 44% 0 -2 0.98 24% 0.9 .22 24% .34 75% .26 1.17 75% 32% 44% +8 -3 1.12 36% 0.9 .33 17% .49 74% .36
Dec
16		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ B+ B- B+ B+ 18% 34% 48% F C+ D F F D+ B- C B- F B+ C F F 35% 21% 44% B- F A+ C+ A D+ C A- B-
1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26 1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15
Dec
20		 Nebraska Omaha D+ C- D- F F 44% 32% 25% D- F A+ A+ A+ C- B- C+ B- D- D F D+ F 34% 16% 50% D+ F C+ F D- B F F F
1.12 60% 33% 21% -5 -1 0.89 42% 1.3 .55 15% .32 75% .24 1.16 65% 63% 36% +8 0 1.18 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 80% .34
Dec
29		 Northwestern St. C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 38% 28% 34% D- A F C+ D- D F D+ F A A D B C+ 33% 37% 30% A- B- B+ B B+ B F A+ F
1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13 0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34
Dec
31		 East Texas A&M C- F B- F F 45% 29% 25% F+ F B A+ A+ A- C- C+ C- B B- A+ B+ A- 29% 16% 56% C+ A- D F F A+ F F F
1.04 39% 40% 23% -12 -1 0.76 36% 1.4 .51 14% .30 71% .21 0.93 54% 14% 28% -10 0 0.82 27% 1.7 .45 24% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 McNeese St. A- D- F F F 23% 23% 53% D- F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F C F F+ F 45% 21% 34% C F F B- D- C F C F
1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50 1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57
Jan
5		 SE Louisiana F F F F F 27% 34% 39% F F A F+ B- C- A- A+ A+ C C+ A F F 49% 11% 41% F F B- A+ A+ F F A+ F
0.88 42% 20% 24% -17 -3 0.64 42% 0.9 .39 20% .44 86% .38 1.01 56% 25% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 0.5 .13 13% .60 52% .31
Jan
10		 Incarnate Word F F A C+ F+ 47% 22% 31% D+ F+ B+ F D- F D- D D- A+ F A+ C+ C 44% 22% 33% D C- C+ A+ A+ A- D- A+ A
1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23 0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12
Jan
12		 Houston Christian F+ C- D B+ D+ 36% 21% 43% D D+ D F F+ F A+ C+ A+ A- B+ A+ A A+ 43% 21% 36% C- A F A C+ B- F C F
1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37 0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32
Jan
17		 Nicholls St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 36% 32% F A+ B A+ A+ C- D- D+ D- D- D+ B D- D- 37% 20% 43% C+ D D F F B+ F F F
1.31 67% 53% 67% +24 -2 1.45 40% 1.5 .60 22% .30 75% .22 1.17 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 28% 1.3 .38 19% .43 79% .34
Jan
19		 New Orleans D+ F A- B C+ 30% 30% 41% F C B+ F D- C F C+ F F+ F F A+ F 61% 27% 12% F+ F F A+ B C- F C+ F
1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20 1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51
Jan
24		 Stephen F. Austin A A B- D+ B 29% 27% 44% D- B- B+ A+ A+ C+ C- A+ B- F F F+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F A+ F A- F+ F D- F
1.21 67% 43% 30% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23 1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -3 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25
Jan
27		 East Texas A&M B C+ B A+ A 34% 24% 42% F+ B+ A+ D- B D D- D- F+ B A A- A+ A+ 50% 13% 37% F+ A+ D- F F F D A+ B-
1.21 59% 42% 48% +10 -1 1.20 44% 0.9 .42 19% .26 64% .16 0.90 46% 29% 16% -17 +2 0.71 28% 1.3 .37 13% .29 47% .14
Jan
31		 McNeese St. C+ D- C- B+ C 27% 38% 36% F D+ A+ F D+ A+ F C F C C A+ F B 28% 40% 33% A+ A- C B- B- C- F F F
1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19 1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 SE Louisiana B+ C C C+ C 29% 31% 39% F+ C- A- C+ B+ A+ F F F B A+ D B- B 41% 22% 37% D B- A- F D- D- C A+ A+
1.20 60% 38% 35% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.1 .45 10% .18 50% .09 0.89 42% 40% 29% -9 0 0.85 21% 1.6 .32 15% .31 25% .08
Feb
7		 Stephen F. Austin B F A+ B A 28% 46% 26% F B C C- C- B F A+ D F+ D- F+ F F 29% 40% 31% A+ F A+ F A- D+ F F F
1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17 1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30
Feb
9		 Northwestern St. D- F B- A+ C- 30% 39% 30% F D- D+ F F C+ B+ C B+ D+ F+ A B- C- 34% 34% 32% B C B- F+ C F D+ A+ C+
1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29 1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22
Feb
14		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D- D+ B- F D 39% 37% 24% F F+ D+ F F D A+ A+ A+ D- B- A- F D+ 58% 16% 27% F D C C- C- F F D+ F
0.94 56% 40% 20% -5 -2 0.88 26% 0.5 .13 22% .52 85% .44 1.13 50% 29% 42% -3 +2 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 10% .58 69% .40
Feb
16		 UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F A A+ B- 38% 42% 20% F C B D- C- A+ D+ F F D B A+ C A- 46% 8% 46% F B D A+ B F F C+ F
1.09 42% 48% 50% +3 -3 1.02 36% 0.7 .25 12% .30 44% .13 1.17 52% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.7 .23 3% .40 74% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 1.7 4th
5th 1.3 8.0 9.3 5th
6th 10.6 4.0 14.6 6th
7th 7.8 31.1 22.5 0.7 62.2 7th
8th 0.5 6.6 1.8 8.9 8th
9th 1.6 1.0 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.7 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 2.9 15.4 32.9 34.4 14.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 14.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.2
10-12 34.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.2 0.2 34.0
9-13 32.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 32.6
8-14 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
7-15 2.9% 2.9
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.3 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.3 10.5 48.7 39.5 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 2.9%