Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#162
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#117
Pace71.4#115
Improvement-1.1#266

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#179
First Shot+0.4#171
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#199
Layup/Dunks+5.6#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#325
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement-0.6#244

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#163
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#95
Layups/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-3.9#331
Improvement-0.5#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 13.4% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 80.3% 89.9% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 87.1% 78.9%
Conference Champion 12.6% 16.3% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.5% 13.4% 8.2%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 68   South Dakota St. L 71-83 36%     0 - 1 -7.8 -10.2 +3.3
  Nov 19, 2021 190   Middle Tennessee W 87-74 67%     1 - 1 +9.0 +5.3 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2021 69   Buffalo W 79-78 26%     2 - 1 +8.1 +1.1 +7.0
  Nov 24, 2021 65   Saint Louis L 68-79 25%     2 - 2 -3.5 -4.9 +1.8
  Nov 28, 2021 340   @ Northwestern St. W 72-68 84%     3 - 2 -6.2 -7.1 +1.0
  Dec 11, 2021 134   Liberty L 64-66 44%    
  Dec 14, 2021 259   Louisiana Monroe W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 18, 2021 6   @ Kansas L 66-86 3%    
  Dec 21, 2021 244   Jackson St. W 70-62 77%    
  Dec 30, 2021 292   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 313   Lamar W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 06, 2022 128   @ Abilene Christian L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 191   @ Tarleton St. L 62-63 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 224   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 123   Grand Canyon W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 104   New Mexico St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 199   @ Seattle L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 219   @ California Baptist L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 03, 2022 132   Utah Valley W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 305   Dixie St. W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 16, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 81-61 96%    
  Feb 19, 2022 313   @ Lamar W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 24, 2022 224   Sam Houston St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 128   Abilene Christian W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 02, 2022 104   @ New Mexico St. L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 05, 2022 292   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-75 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 12.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.5 1.4 0.2 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.2 4.6 1.0 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.7 1.6 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 2.2 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.7 2.6 0.3 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.6 10.9 13.1 14.3 13.8 11.6 8.9 5.5 2.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.0
16-2 94.1% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.6% 4.0    2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.3% 3.3    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.0 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 51.8% 50.9% 0.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8%
17-1 1.2% 45.5% 42.4% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.3%
16-2 2.9% 37.4% 37.2% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.3%
15-3 5.5% 30.7% 30.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.2%
14-4 8.9% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.0%
13-5 11.6% 17.1% 17.1% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.7
12-6 13.8% 10.3% 10.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 12.4
11-7 14.3% 5.3% 5.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 13.5
10-8 13.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.6
9-9 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7
8-10 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.6
7-11 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 2.8% 2.8
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.5 2.1 0.4 89.5 0.1%