Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 98
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 63
Pace 66.1 246
Improvement +0.4 172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 135 C C A- F D
Defense B- 71 B- C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 312 D+ 54% 284 -4.2 326
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 117 C+ 40% 106 +2.8 50
Three Pointers 39% 212 B- 36% 88 +0.7 154
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 317 C +0.4 157
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 194
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 115 D+ 0.97 261 C 0.32 157
Turnovers A- 13.1% 13
Freethrows F+ 0.23 359 D- 67% 339 F 0.15 361
Total Offense C+ +1.3 135

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 29% 360 D- 14.1% 333
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 171 C 5.4% 213
Three Pointers C 83% 209 B- 0.5% 83
Total D- 46% 338 D+ 6.4% 269

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 B 53% 67 -0.5 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 142 D 43% 323 +1.3 293
Three Pointers 37% 279 B+ 30% 44 -3.7 40
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 176 B- -2.9 67
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 86
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 133 C- 1.05 215 C 0.31 162
Turnovers C 16.8% 184
Freethrows C+ 0.29 132 C- 73% 234 C+ 0.21 148
Total Defense B- +3.9 71

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 200 C 10.9% 180
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 142 C- 3.7% 249
Three Pointers A- 76% 18 B- 1.5% 67
Total B- 51% 84 C 5.8% 156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 235 17.6 236
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 360 0.14 80
Improvement -0.4 #210 +0.8 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 115 100 85
Conference Record 19 - 3 21 - 1 21 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38% 38% 35%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 95%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round38% 38% 35%
Second Round4% 4% 3%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 28 - 4
Quad 419 - 127 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 140 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 75% +16  99% 1 - 0 A+ +23 B+ +9 C A+ F+ A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 233 @Rice W 81 - 69 72% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +11 B +6 B- C C+ B+ +5 B A F
 Fri, Nov 14 243 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 88% +1  58% 3 - 0 C+ +3 B- +4 C- D+ A+ C -1 B B F+
 Tue, Nov 18 133 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 52% +1  53% 3 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +9 C+ A+ B- D- -7 F D B-
 Fri, Nov 21 276 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 80% -3  27% 4 - 1 C -1 F -11 F A B- A +11 B C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 176 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 62% +3  70% 4 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 D+ C C+ C -1 C- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 77% +8  93% 5 - 2 1 - 0 B +10 C- -1 D- C A+ A+ +12 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 353 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +8 A- D A D -6 A F F
 Wed, Dec 17 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 84% +1  45% 7 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 C C+ B+ B +4 B- D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 304 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 84% +6  78% 8 - 2 3 - 0 A +22 B +6 D+ B- B+ A+ +18 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 280 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 80% +7  89% 9 - 2 4 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 D+ F A- B +5 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 281 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 80% +8  91% 10 - 2 5 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 D C+ B- B- +3 C+ F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 83 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 32% +2  75% 10 - 3 5 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 D+ B+ C- B +5 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 92% +15  98% 11 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 A +14 C B A+ D+ -5 F+ C A
 Mon, Jan 12 275 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 91% +7  86% 12 - 3 7 - 1 C +0 F -24 F C C- A+ +25 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 209 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 69% +1  60% 13 - 3 8 - 1 B- +5 A- +9 A- F A+ D+ -4 F+ D- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 265 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 78% +16  97% 14 - 3 9 - 1 B+ +14 B +7 A- F B- A +9 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @Lamar W 88 - 81 68% +4  89% 15 - 3 10 - 1 B- +7 A+ +17 A+ D- A+ F+ -10 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 280 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 91% +8  98% 16 - 3 11 - 1 D+ -8 F -12 F D+ B+ B +5 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 281 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 91% +21  98% 17 - 3 12 - 1 A- +17 A+ +22 A+ A+ A C -0 C+ F B+
 Mon, Feb 2 83 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 55% +6  92% 18 - 3 13 - 1 B +11 D- -7 D+ D+ A+ A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Lamar W 84 - 74 85% +10  89% 19 - 3 14 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +9 A D- A D+ -4 D- B- D+
 Mon, Feb 9 304 East Texas A&M W 74 - 70 93% +2  54% 20 - 3 15 - 1 D+ -7 C -0 D D+ B D- -7 F A B
 Sat, Feb 14 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 66 - 57 57% +5  96% 21 - 3 16 - 1 B+ +12 C +1 D- C- A A+ +12 A- B+ B+
 Mon, Feb 16 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78 - 68 67% +13  99% 22 - 3 17 - 1 B +11 A- +10 B D- A+ C+ +2 C+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 21 265 Nicholls St. W 80 - 66 91%
 Mon, Feb 23 209 New Orleans W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Houston Christian W 73 - 63 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 275 @Incarnate Word W 76 - 67 80%
Totals 25 - 4 20 - 2 +5 C+ +1 C- C D B- +4 B- D- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ C+ B- C 34% 43% 39% D C C+ D+ C A- F+ D- F B- B D B+ B- 41% 22% 37% C B- C+ C- C C C+ C- C+
1.11 54% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.01 33% 1.0 .32 13% .23 67% .15 1.03 53% 43% 30% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .31 17% .29 73% .17
Nov
7		 Arkansas St. B+ F A+ D- B- 27% 29% 44% D- C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% D+ A+ A+ D A C- F D- F
1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17 0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43
Nov
11		 Rice B B C+ A+ B+ 24% 33% 43% D B- F A+ C C+ A- C B+ B+ A+ B+ F B- 28% 43% 28% A B B- A+ A F F C+ F
1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30 1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39
Nov
14		 Abilene Christian B- F A+ A+ C- 43% 17% 40% C C- F A+ D+ A+ C F F C C+ B- A+ B 47% 35% 18% B B B- B B F+ C- F F+
1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25 0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28
Nov
18		 Fresno St. B+ B- D- D+ C+ 41% 23% 36% C C+ A+ C+ A+ B- F F F D- F+ F F F 55% 21% 23% D F D+ D D B- D A+ B-
1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05 1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20
Nov
21		 Pepperdine F C- A F F 33% 11% 56% C- F C A+ A B- F A+ F A A+ C+ D+ B 38% 24% 38% C B A F C+ A- B- F D+
0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02 0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25
Nov
29		 Texas Arlington D+ F B F+ D+ 41% 37% 22% D D+ B+ F C C+ F B- F C A+ F F C 59% 15% 26% F C- F+ A+ B- C+ F F F
0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12 1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41
Dec
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F+ D- C+ D 26% 36% 38% F D- D A- C A+ B+ C B+ A+ A A- A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F D C D+
1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28 0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
7		 Louisiana Monroe B+ A+ F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- A- D D+ D A D- F D- D B- A- A+ A+ 46% 18% 37% D- A F+ F F F F+ F F
1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12 1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30
Dec
17		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F A+ C+ 45% 29% 26% D C C- B C+ B+ A+ F A+ B B+ A- B+ B+ 50% 17% 33% D- B- F C+ D- B- F A+ D
1.08 59% 18% 50% +1 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 17% .72 55% .40 0.94 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.86 38% 0.9 .35 19% .48 56% .27
Dec
29		 East Texas A&M B F A+ B- C 25% 27% 47% F D+ B+ D B- B+ C- C+ C- A+ A+ B- F+ C+ 30% 26% 45% A B- B+ A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ A+
1.16 38% 50% 38% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 14% .30 71% .21 0.74 36% 33% 38% -5 -1 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 22% .28 29% .08
Dec
31		 Northwestern St. C+ B B- F D+ 46% 18% 36% C+ D+ C F F A- C+ D+ C B B- C A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% F B- A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25 0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27
Jan
3		 SE Louisiana C+ F B+ C+ D+ 28% 32% 40% F+ D A F C+ B- D+ B+ C- B- D+ B+ B+ C 30% 34% 36% A- C+ B+ F F+ C A+ F B
1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27 0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18
Jan
5		 McNeese St. C+ F A+ D D+ 35% 17% 48% C+ D+ B- B B+ C- F F F B D+ F A- C- 33% 16% 51% C+ C- D- A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09 1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Houston Christian A B- A+ C- C- 40% 8% 52% B C A+ F B A+ F+ A+ D D+ F D- B- F+ 45% 17% 38% D- F+ C- C C A F+ F F
1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18 1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29
Jan
12		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 39% 27% 33% F+ F B- D+ C C- C+ F F+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 53% 24% 22% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B C B- C+
0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22 0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18
Jan
17		 New Orleans A- C+ A- A+ A 38% 28% 34% D- A- B- F F A+ A+ D A D+ C F C+ F 30% 37% 33% A+ F+ C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33 1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11
Jan
19		 Nicholls St. B A B+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% D+ A- A- F F B- B- B- B A A+ F A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% B- A+ F A- D- C- C- F D-
1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30 0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
24		 Lamar A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 36% 47% F A+ F B D- A+ D B- D+ F+ F D+ B+ D 29% 27% 44% D D D+ F F C D F F
1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -3 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25 1.21 67% 43% 30% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23
Jan
27		 Northwestern St. F F+ F C- F 30% 36% 34% F F F A+ D+ B+ D F F B A+ B+ C A+ 43% 31% 26% C A+ C- F D- D- A+ B+ A+
0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18 0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15
Jan
31		 SE Louisiana A+ A F A+ A+ 24% 22% 53% D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A F F F C A B D C 33% 33% 35% B+ C+ D+ F F B+ D F F+
1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14 0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 McNeese St. D- F A+ C+ C- 33% 24% 43% D D+ C+ F+ D+ A+ D B+ C- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C- F F A+ C C C
0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28 0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22
Feb
7		 Lamar B+ B A+ A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A F B+ D- A D+ A+ B D+ A F C- F 28% 46% 26% A D- B+ C- B- D+ B- F C
1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30 1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17
Feb
9		 East Texas A&M C C+ F B- D 47% 22% 31% D+ D B F D+ B B D- C+ D- F D- D F 32% 15% 53% C F A+ D- A B C D+ C-
1.11 58% 18% 38% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 15% .35 65% .23 1.05 87% 43% 36% +11 0 1.26 8% 1.0 .08 21% .25 69% .17
Feb
14		 UT Rio Grande Valley C D+ A- F F+ 38% 23% 38% C D- A+ F C- A A D- B A+ B F A+ A 33% 20% 48% B- A- C A+ B+ B+ C B- C+
1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27 0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16
Feb
16		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- D B- A+ B 48% 20% 32% C+ B C- F D- A+ C+ D C C+ B- F A+ B- 44% 16% 40% D C+ C- C+ C C- A+ F A
1.16 54% 40% 44% +3 +1 1.10 27% 0.7 .19 9% .43 69% .29 1.01 50% 56% 23% -7 +1 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 16% .21 75% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 10.8 36.3 51.2 99.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.5 10.8 36.3 51.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 51.2    51.2
20-2 100.0% 36.3    36.3
19-3 100.0% 10.8    6.2 4.7
18-4 53.1% 0.8    0.3 0.5
17-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 99.2% 99.2 94.0 5.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 51.2% 40.3% 40.3% 12.0 0.0 3.0 15.2 2.4 0.0 30.6
20-2 36.3% 36.6% 36.6% 12.3 0.4 8.2 4.5 0.2 23.0
19-3 10.8% 33.7% 33.7% 12.6 0.0 1.6 1.9 0.2 7.2
18-4 1.5% 27.7% 27.7% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
17-5 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 38.1% 38.1% 0.0% 12.2 62.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.6% 100.0% 12.0 0.0 14.6 73.5 11.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.4%