Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.8 280
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 311
Pace 63.9 306
Improvement +4.2 39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 266 D+ D+ C C+ D
Defense D+ 271 D D- C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 251 D- 51% 329 -3.9 315
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 57 C+ 40% 98 +3.5 37
Three Pointers 36% 289 C- 33% 234 -3.3 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 314 D+ -2.6 271
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 291
Second Chance D- 24.5% 332 B- 1.10 76 D+ 0.27 267
Turnovers C 17.0% 192
Freethrows C 0.31 166 B- 74% 121 C+ 0.23 137
Total Offense D+ -3.6 266

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 259 D+ 12.3% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 165 B 3.3% 61
Three Pointers C- 81% 256 D 1.5% 314
Total D 49% 309 C- 5.9% 215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 D+ 61% 268 +2.7 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 246 D- 44% 345 +0.3 212
Three Pointers 41% 180 D+ 36% 286 +1.4 254
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 251 D +3.7 319
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 318
Second Chance D 33.9% 313 D 1.14 318 D- 0.39 334
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 149
Freethrows D+ 0.34 290 C 72% 180 D+ 0.25 281
Total Defense D+ -3.2 271

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 295 D+ 8.4% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 145 D- 1.6% 342
Three Pointers C- 86% 235 D+ 0.4% 285
Total C- 59% 245 D 3.9% 315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 320 17.0 133
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 276 0.18 198
Improvement -2.1 #292 +6.3 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 301 279 251
Conference Record 6 - 16 8 - 14 9 - 13
Conference Finish 11 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 13% 4% 29%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 42 - 12
Quad 46 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 35 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D C- D+ D -5 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 138 @North Texas L 53 - 80 15% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D -6 C F F F -22 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 340 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 59% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 C F C- F -10 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 119 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 12% -15  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 C- -2 D C D- F -15 F C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 58 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 5% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -1 B +7 A F A- D- -8 F+ D- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 267 Southern L 73 - 75 58% -8  6% 0 - 6 D -11 D -5 D- B- D+ D -6 F D B+
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 F -14 D+ F F F -15 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 281 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 39% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 C+ +4 B +7 C A+ D- C- -2 C D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 71 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +2 A- C F C -1 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 207 Lamar L 61 - 76 46% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -21 F -13 F F+ D- F+ -9 F B- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 98 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 20% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -8 D -5 D F+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 209 New Orleans W 74 - 68 46% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C +0 C- -1 F A C C+ +2 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 265 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 35% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 C- -5 D -5 F+ C A- C -0 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 44% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 B +7 A A- F+ F -11 F C- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 35% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C- -2 F+ -8 D- D+ D B+ +7 C+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 17 275 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 38% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 D+ -6 C- -1 B F+ F+ D -5 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 294 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 41% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +23 B A+ B+ F -30 F F C+
 Tue, Jan 27 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 9% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 D -4 F B- B+ A +11 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 209 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 25% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D -11 F -10 C- F C- C -1 C F C
 Mon, Feb 2 265 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 57% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D- -12 F -16 F B C B +4 A F+ B+
 Wed, Feb 4 304 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 67% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -17 D+ -2 B F A F -16 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 304 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 44% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -9 F -24 F B+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 207 @Lamar W 70 - 68 25% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C+ +2 C- -1 D- D+ A B- +3 D+ A- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 281 SE Louisiana W 69 - 66 62% -2  15% 6 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -7 C +1 C- D- A D- -7 D- F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 83 McNeese St. L 64 - 75 16% -11  0% 6 - 19 6 - 12 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- F A- D -5 B+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 294 Houston Christian W 70 - 66 63%
 Mon, Feb 23 275 Incarnate Word W 73 - 70 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 72 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 75 18%
Totals 8 - 21 8 - 14 -7 D+ -4 A D+ D D+ -3 C- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C+ C- D+ 36% 49% 36% D D+ D- B- D+ C C B- C+ D+ D+ D- D+ D 41% 18% 41% D+ D D D D- C+ D+ C D+
1.03 51% 40% 33% -3 -1 0.95 25% 1.1 .27 17% .31 74% .23 1.13 61% 44% 36% +4 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .39 17% .34 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- C+ D 39% 27% 35% C- D C- C C- D+ A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C+ B 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D F C+ D B- D+
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D F A+ D- B 16% 41% 44% F C C F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C F F F F C+ F A- D-
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ B- C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C- A+ A A+ F B- B+ D- D+ 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C- F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D 35% 30% 35% D D B- D+ C D- A+ D A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F C- B C+ D F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D F A- A F+ B+ D- F D- C F+ 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F A- D- C+ F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D- C- A- B- D+ F F F D C+ A+ F F 56% 14% 30% F F D- C D B+ A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D+ 22% 13% 65% C- D+ F F F F F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- B- C+ C C+
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B D+ A- C+ 36% 38% 26% F C A A+ A+ D- A+ B A+ C- F B- A+ C 35% 28% 37% C+ C C+ F D- D+ F D+ F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California C+ C+ F+ A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C F C- A+ A- C B- A+ F B+ 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F B+ D D+ D-
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- D- 33% 37% 30% F F F C- F+ D- A+ D- A F+ F F C- F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A+ F B- B+ B C+ B
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D C F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A D+ F+ D A C- 46% 18% 36% F D+ C- A B C+ F D F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C- F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C A+ A C A+ A A+ C+ F F+ A+ C 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B+ C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D C A+ F F 43% 14% 43% B- F+ D- A+ C A- C+ F+ C- C F D A D- 51% 10% 39% F F+ C A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ A- A+ A 55% 21% 24% B- A C- A+ A- F+ B+ A- A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B F B F+ C- F+ F B- F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C F+ F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F A- D+ D A+ A A+ B+ C A B+ B 45% 8% 47% F C+ A+ F B A- A F B
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C- A- A C- B 47% 19% 35% C- B F B- F+ F+ A B- A+ D A+ F D C- 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C+ A+ B B 46% 15% 39% C+ B A+ A A+ B+ A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F F F F C+ F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F D- C+ F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F+ D F A B A- C+ A- 30% 36% 34% A- A- A+ F C- C+ F+ B+ D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F F+ A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F C- F B F C A- D- D+ C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% C- F D- A+ B C B B- B+ B A+ F B A 45% 25% 30% C+ A F C- F+ B+ D F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D+ A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A F F C- B+ F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F B- A- B+ F D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ F+ A+ A+ D- F C F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C- B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F D- F+ A D+ A D D D- B- A D F D 30% 39% 30% B- D+ B- A+ A- C+ F C- F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29
Feb
14		 SE Louisiana C B- C- B C+ 33% 35% 33% F+ C- F+ B- D- A C A+ B D- D- F A+ F 35% 38% 28% A D- F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.10 63% 35% 38% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 14% .37 85% .32 1.06 64% 53% 18% +1 -2 1.00 46% 1.2 .57 26% .39 67% .26
Feb
16		 McNeese St. D+ A D F C 43% 33% 25% D- C- C- F F A- A+ A A+ D B B- C B- 27% 35% 38% A+ B+ C- D- D- F C A+ B+
1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44 1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 5.0 7.5 1.3 13.8 7th
8th 3.7 26.9 7.5 0.2 38.2 8th
9th 18.0 6.4 0.1 24.6 9th
10th 2.1 10.9 0.2 13.2 10th
11th 5.2 1.7 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 2.7 0.1 2.8 12th
Total 10.0 34.3 38.5 15.2 2.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
9-13 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
8-14 38.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 38.4
7-15 34.3% 34.3
6-16 10.0% 10.0
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 10.0%