Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#273
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#308
Pace63.8#324
Improvement+4.0#15

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot+0.0#175
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#259
Layup/Dunks-7.3#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement+1.0#102

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#326
First Shot-4.5#327
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-2.6#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#282
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement+3.0#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 5.0% 7.3% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.1% 43.9% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 7.5% 22.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 43 @Texas A&M L 68-98 4%     0 - 1 -15.2 -3.5 -9.5
  Thu, Nov 6 146 @North Texas L 53-80 17%     0 - 2 -23.0 -3.7 -24.2
  Tue, Nov 11 244 @North Alabama L 83-87 OT 34%     0 - 3 -5.8 +4.7 -10.3
  Tue, Nov 18 95 @San Francisco L 64-84 9%     0 - 4 -11.2 +2.8 -16.5
  Fri, Nov 21 87 @Grand Canyon L 72-85 8%     0 - 5 -3.4 +6.9 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 29 222 Southern L 73-75 53%     0 - 6 -8.8 -1.3 -7.6
  Fri, Dec 5 70 @McNeese St. L 54-92 7%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -27.1 -10.5 -18.4
  Sun, Dec 7 266 @SE Louisiana W 76-68 37%     1 - 7 1 - 1 +5.3 +8.7 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 13 65 @California L 70-79 6%     1 - 8 +2.3 +5.9 -4.0
  Mon, Dec 29 253 Lamar W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Dec 31 132 Stephen F. Austin L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 241 New Orleans W 76-74 56%    
  Mon, Jan 5 234 @Nicholls St. L 70-75 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-69 52%    
  Mon, Jan 12 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 162 @Incarnate Word L 67-76 21%    
  Mon, Jan 19 279 @Houston Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 302 East Texas A&M W 76-71 68%    
  Mon, Jan 26 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-76 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 241 @New Orleans L 73-77 35%    
  Mon, Feb 2 234 Nicholls St. W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 302 @East Texas A&M L 73-74 47%    
  Mon, Feb 9 253 @Lamar L 66-70 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 266 SE Louisiana W 70-67 60%    
  Mon, Feb 16 70 McNeese St. L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Feb 21 279 Houston Christian W 72-69 61%    
  Mon, Feb 23 162 Incarnate Word L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-72 31%    
  Mon, Mar 2 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-77 26%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.5 1.2 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.0 1.5 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.8 0.3 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.2 7.9 10.3 12.4 13.0 12.5 11.0 8.4 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
18-4 53.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-5 24.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
16-6 10.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0
19-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-5 0.5% 14.7% 14.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-6 1.1% 12.4% 12.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-7 2.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
14-8 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 4.0
13-9 6.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.1
12-10 8.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
11-11 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.0
10-12 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.4
9-13 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
8-14 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
7-15 10.3% 10.3
6-16 7.9% 7.9
5-17 5.2% 5.2
4-18 2.9% 2.9
3-19 1.2% 1.2
2-20 0.3% 0.3
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%