Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.3#343
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#329
Pace74.9#60
Improvement-0.1#176

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#317
First Shot-5.0#311
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#209
Layup/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#330
Freethrows-4.7#351
Improvement-0.3#223

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#348
First Shot-4.2#303
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#338
Layups/Dunks-3.0#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#299
Freethrows+1.0#132
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 0.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 50.0% 38.3%
Conference Champion 3.6% 0.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 0.0% 21.2%
First Four3.1% 0.0% 3.1%
First Round1.2% 0.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 47 - 117 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma L 59-77 1%     0 - 1 -3.3 -6.4 +3.3
  Nov 10, 2021 142   @ Tulsa L 75-82 6%     0 - 2 -2.2 +1.3 -3.4
  Nov 15, 2021 100   @ SMU L 48-95 4%     0 - 3 -39.1 -22.0 -17.1
  Nov 19, 2021 108   Louisiana Tech L 64-83 9%     0 - 4 -17.9 -11.0 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2021 260   Louisiana Monroe L 66-96 23%     0 - 5 -35.4 -18.2 -13.1
  Nov 28, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin L 68-72 16%     0 - 6 -6.5 -5.8 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2021 7   @ Houston L 53-87 0.1%   
  Dec 04, 2021 260   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-82 15%    
  Dec 14, 2021 10   @ LSU L 61-93 0.1%   
  Dec 21, 2021 82   @ Texas A&M L 58-81 2%    
  Dec 28, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 58-93 0.0%   
  Jan 06, 2022 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 326   @ SE Louisiana L 72-78 28%    
  Jan 20, 2022 235   @ Nicholls St. L 70-83 13%    
  Jan 22, 2022 274   @ New Orleans L 77-87 18%    
  Jan 27, 2022 350   Incarnate Word W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 353   @ Houston Baptist L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 327   @ McNeese St. L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 10, 2022 353   Houston Baptist W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 327   McNeese St. L 79-80 50%    
  Feb 17, 2022 350   @ Incarnate Word L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 318   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 24, 2022 235   Nicholls St. L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 274   New Orleans L 80-84 36%    
  Mar 05, 2022 326   SE Louisiana L 75-76 49%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 6 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.3 4.5 0.6 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 7.5 5.2 0.7 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 8.8 5.2 0.7 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.9 7.3 3.7 0.6 18.0 7th
8th 0.5 2.2 4.5 3.8 1.8 0.2 13.0 8th
Total 0.5 2.3 6.0 9.1 13.1 15.6 15.2 13.6 10.4 6.7 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 96.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
12-2 84.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2
11-3 58.9% 1.3    0.7 0.6 0.1
10-4 22.1% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-5 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-1 0.3% 29.6% 29.6% 16.0 0.1 0.2
12-2 0.9% 33.7% 33.7% 16.0 0.3 0.6
11-3 2.2% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.4 1.9
10-4 4.2% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.6 3.6
9-5 6.7% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.6 6.1
8-6 10.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.5 9.9
7-7 13.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.2
6-8 15.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.0
5-9 15.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.5
4-10 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
3-11 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
2-12 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
1-13 2.3% 2.3
0-14 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 3.1 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%