UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #229
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #264
Pace 72.6 #94
Improvement -2.8 #328

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #255 C+ F C- D C
Defense #193 C D+ C+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.15 #197 -0.9 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.55 #355 -2.2 #279
Three Pointers 43% #149 1.19 #20 +4.8 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #134 +1.7 #134
Freethrows 11.7 #357 71% #212 8.4 #355
Second Chance 28.5% #239 1.02 #209 0.29 #236
Turnovers 18.7% #289
Total Offense -3.1 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.27 #298 +1.7 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #172 0.69 #118 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 47% #41 0.97 #138 -2.0 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #170 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 18.7 #253 75% #283 14.0 #277
Second Chance 28.6% #118 1.02 #167 0.29 #119
Turnovers 16.5% #189
Total Defense -0.8 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0% #188 -0.9% #100
Shot Type Make Effect 3.3% #129 0.3% #191
Possession Length 17.1 #170 17.0 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.18 #207
Improvement -3.3 #351 +0.5 #151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.1% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 16.9% 23.3% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 48.7% 23.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 4.4% 12.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 58.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 11
Quad 49 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 27 @Baylor L 81-96 3%     -5.6   0 - 1 +3.0 +5.1 -0.6
  Sat, Nov 8 328 @Southern Utah W 95-72 63%     11.0   1 - 1 +15.6 +16.0 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 11 51 @Boise St. L 65-85 6%     -8.7   1 - 2 -6.3 -3.4 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 22 225 @Missouri St. L 67-74 38%     2.4   1 - 3 -7.8 +3.4 -12.0
  Mon, Nov 24 8 @Illinois L 73-87 1%     -8.3   1 - 4 +9.4 +9.2 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 3 120 @Stephen F. Austin L 60-73 18%     -7.9   1 - 5 0 - 1 -7.1 -6.8 -0.5
  Sun, Dec 7 198 Austin Peay W 63-50 56%     0.0   2 - 5 +7.6 -9.0 +16.7
  Thu, Dec 11 182 Texas Arlington L 50-58 52%     -0.2   2 - 6 -12.4 -11.2 -2.9
  Tue, Dec 16 223 @Lamar W 83-72 37%     12.5   3 - 6 1 - 1 +10.4 +12.6 -2.2
  Mon, Dec 29 230 New Orleans L 69-85 62%     -7.5   3 - 7 1 - 2 -22.9 -8.8 -14.2
  Wed, Dec 31 215 Nicholls St. L 69-71 59%     -2.2   3 - 8 1 - 3 -8.4 -6.2 -2.2
  Sat, Jan 3 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-71 58%    
  Mon, Jan 5 161 Incarnate Word L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 319 @East Texas A&M W 75-72 60%    
  Mon, Jan 12 296 @Northwestern St. W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 81 McNeese St. L 70-78 23%    
  Mon, Jan 19 262 SE Louisiana W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 272 @Houston Christian L 72-73 48%    
  Mon, Jan 26 210 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-74 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 161 @Incarnate Word L 71-78 28%    
  Mon, Feb 2 272 Houston Christian W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 230 @New Orleans L 76-79 40%    
  Mon, Feb 9 215 @Nicholls St. L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 120 Stephen F. Austin L 69-73 37%    
  Mon, Feb 16 223 Lamar W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 262 @SE Louisiana L 70-71 46%    
  Mon, Feb 23 81 @McNeese St. L 67-81 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 319 East Texas A&M W 78-69 79%    
  Mon, Mar 2 296 Northwestern St. W 76-69 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.5 1.8 0.2 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.8 5.4 2.0 0.2 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.1 2.2 0.2 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.0 2.4 0.3 12.9 8th
9th 0.5 2.5 5.5 2.6 0.4 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 2.2 0.3 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 4.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.9 6.4 8.9 12.6 14.1 14.8 13.4 10.5 7.3 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
17-5 54.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 24.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0% 0.0
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.3% 32.3% 32.3% 13.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-6 0.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-7 2.0% 9.1% 9.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-8 4.0% 7.2% 7.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7
13-9 7.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1
12-10 10.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.1
11-11 13.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 13.2
10-12 14.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.6
9-13 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.0
8-14 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
7-15 8.9% 8.9
6-16 6.4% 6.4
5-17 2.9% 2.9
4-18 1.6% 1.6
3-19 0.5% 0.5
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 98.4 0.0%