UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 150
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 178
Pace 67.7 209
Improvement +3.5 62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 175 C+ C- C- D- C+
Defense C+ 146 C B C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 C 58% 160 -0.9 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 257 D 33% 322 -2.2 285
Three Pointers 46% 69 B- 36% 111 +3.9 55
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 146 C +0.5 153
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 144
Second Chance C- 28.5% 236 C 1.03 168 C- 0.29 217
Turnovers C- 17.4% 219
Freethrows F 0.23 362 B 76% 69 D- 0.17 348
Total Offense C -0.6 175

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 151 C 11.4% 208
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 167 D+ 6.9% 297
Three Pointers B 89% 61 C- 1.2% 269
Total B 62% 62 C- 5.9% 217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 D+ 61% 266 +0.0 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 141 C+ 36% 110 +0.0 186
Three Pointers 42% 144 C+ 33% 130 -0.1 173
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 125 C +0.1 180
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C- 31.6% 229 A 0.83 7 B 0.26 60
Turnovers C 17.1% 168
Freethrows D+ 0.33 273 B- 71% 102 C- 0.24 248
Total Defense C+ +0.9 146

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 351 D+ 8.9% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 329 D+ 3.2% 286
Three Pointers D 90% 326 C 1.0% 145
Total D- 65% 346 D+ 4.4% 282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 242 17.1 153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 280 0.18 210
Improvement +2.7 #70 +0.8 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 184 155 130
Conference Record 12 - 10 14 - 8 15 - 7
Conference Finish 4 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 92% 98% 80%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 26 - 8
Quad 411 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Baylor L 81 - 96 10% -6  38% 0 - 1 C -1 C+ +2 A- F+ B- C- -2 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 273 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 64% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +19 A +14 A+ C- D- B +5 B- B+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 65 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 15% -9  8% 1 - 2 D -8 F -11 C+ D- F B +4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 202 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 49% +2  68% 1 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ F D -6 D+ A F
 Mon, Nov 24 5 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  19% 1 - 4 B+ +12 B +7 B- B A+ B+ +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 23% -8  6% 1 - 5 0 - 1 C- -5 F+ -9 F F A B +4 B+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 7 154 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 62% +0  48% 2 - 5 B +10 F -12 D- A F A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 176 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 66% -0  40% 2 - 6 D- -12 F -14 D F D C -0 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 207 @Lamar W 83 - 72 50% +12  98% 3 - 6 1 - 1 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F C+ B- +3 D- A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 209 New Orleans L 69 - 85 72% -8  7% 3 - 7 1 - 2 F -22 F -11 B F F F -11 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 265 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 80% -2  18% 3 - 8 1 - 3 D -11 F -11 F+ C F C +0 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 70% -1  27% 3 - 9 1 - 4 D -9 F+ -9 F F+ B+ C -0 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 5 275 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 82% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 B- +4 D+ A- C+ C+ +0 A- B D-
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 70% -9  13% 4 - 10 2 - 5 D- -13 C- -1 B- D- C- F -13 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 280 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 65% +4  90% 4 - 11 2 - 6 C- -5 F -10 D- F F+ B+ +6 C+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 83 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 36% +10  89% 5 - 11 3 - 6 B- +7 A +12 A+ B- A D+ -5 B- A- D
 Mon, Jan 19 281 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 83% +4  89% 6 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -4 C F+ A C- -3 D- A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 294 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 68% +8  86% 7 - 11 5 - 6 B+ +12 C +0 A- F C A+ +15 D+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 48% +3  66% 8 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C- -2 D B C A+ +12 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 275 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 65% +7  77% 9 - 11 7 - 6 B +9 A+ +24 A+ B A+ F -15 F A A-
 Mon, Feb 2 294 Houston Christian W 74 - 57 84% +15  97% 10 - 11 8 - 6 B- +6 C+ +3 F+ A+ F B+ +6 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 209 @New Orleans W 95 - 76 50% +16  98% 11 - 11 9 - 6 A +19 A +12 B+ A+ F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 265 @Nicholls St. W 92 - 72 62% +14  98% 12 - 11 10 - 6 A- +17 A+ +16 A- A+ D C+ +2 C- B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 98 Stephen F. Austin L 57 - 66 43% -5  0% 12 - 12 10 - 7 D+ -7 F+ -9 D+ D F+ C+ +1 B+ B+ C
 Mon, Feb 16 207 Lamar W 70 - 65 72% +1  65% 13 - 12 11 - 7 C -1 B- +4 D D- A+ D+ -4 D B+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 281 @SE Louisiana W 69 - 65 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 83 @McNeese St. L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 East Texas A&M W 77 - 65 86%
 Mon, Mar 2 280 Northwestern St. W 75 - 65 82%
Totals 16 - 13 14 - 8 +0 C -1 A C C+ C+ +1 B- B D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D B- C 37% 30% 46% C+ C+ C- C C- C- F B D- C+ D+ C+ C+ C 36% 22% 42% C+ C C- A B C D+ B- C-
1.08 58% 33% 36% 0 0 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 17% .23 76% .17 1.07 61% 36% 33% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.8 .26 17% .33 71% .16
Nov
3		 Baylor C+ A+ C+ A- A 19% 37% 44% C- A- F A+ F+ B- F A+ D- C- F B- F F 20% 33% 47% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ C- F A F
1.04 82% 41% 38% +8 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15 1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31
Nov
8		 Southern Utah A C F A+ A+ 47% 12% 42% A- A+ A+ F C- D- F F F B D- A- B C+ 31% 27% 42% A- B- C+ A B+ F+ D- A C-
1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05 0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19
Nov
11		 Boise St. F A D+ B- B 33% 39% 29% F+ C+ F A- D- F A F D+ B A- A+ F C+ 42% 19% 40% B- C+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17 1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34
Nov
22		 Missouri St. C- A+ F F F 37% 30% 33% B- F A- A+ A+ F B- A+ A- D F C+ A- D+ 21% 19% 60% C- D+ B A+ A F F F F
1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33
Nov
24		 Illinois B D+ F A+ B 28% 34% 38% C- B- C A B A+ A F C+ B+ F A- A C 34% 11% 55% C C A+ A A+ B+ D- F+ F
1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12 1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32
Dec
3		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F+ F F F 51% 20% 29% B F D- F F A D+ B- C- B B A- C B+ 26% 36% 38% A B+ A- C- B D- F D F
0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20 1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28
Dec
7		 Austin Peay F D A+ F D- 28% 26% 47% F+ D- B- A+ A F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 14% 28% F A+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+
0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18 0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21
Dec
11		 Texas Arlington F C- F C D- 36% 20% 43% B- D F D- F D F C F C D- D A C 30% 16% 53% B- C D- B+ C B A+ C A
0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17 1.00 62% 43% 26% -4 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18
Dec
16		 Lamar B+ F+ C A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ F C- F C+ F C F B- F C- D F 18% 34% 48% B D- A- A+ A+ B F C F
1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15 1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26
Dec
29		 New Orleans F A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% D B C- F F F D F F F B F C- C 44% 19% 37% F+ C- C- F F F B- F D
0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19 1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30
Dec
31		 Nicholls St. F F C- B F 41% 16% 43% C F+ C+ D+ C F F+ C F+ C C C- B- C 35% 17% 48% C C D D+ D A+ F D- F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22 1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32
Jan
3		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ F+ A+ F F 40% 22% 38% D+ F D+ F F+ B+ C+ B+ B- C A A F B- 58% 24% 18% D+ C+ F D- F B- F B F+
0.94 50% 60% 12% -11 0 0.80 26% 0.7 .17 17% .42 77% .33 1.00 42% 27% 50% -7 +1 0.89 36% 1.1 .39 19% .47 63% .29
Jan
5		 Incarnate Word B- B+ A D- D+ 35% 8% 58% C+ D+ A C A- C+ F A+ D- C+ A+ B+ C- A 40% 26% 34% C A- F A+ B D- F C F+
1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24 1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25
Jan
10		 East Texas A&M C- C F A C+ 47% 4% 49% A- B- D+ F D- C- F+ C F+ F F B- F+ F 33% 13% 54% C- F F F F C C B+ C+
1.05 57% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 18% .24 69% .17 1.17 69% 33% 38% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.4 .50 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
12		 Northwestern St. F C F D- F+ 45% 8% 47% A- D- F A+ F F+ F A+ F B+ D A A- B- 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ B- B B B F D F
0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13 0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34
Jan
17		 McNeese St. A B B+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% C- A+ F A+ B- A D B C- D+ D F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% B+ B- F+ A+ A- D F F F
1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27 1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37
Jan
19		 SE Louisiana D+ F+ A+ D+ C- 32% 18% 50% C C D F F+ A A- F+ B- C- F+ A+ D D- 37% 22% 41% D+ D- B- A+ A D- C- C+ C
1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31 0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22
Jan
24		 Houston Christian C B F A+ B+ 58% 4% 38% A+ A- F F F C F A+ F A+ B- D D- D 37% 24% 39% B- D+ D A+ B+ A+ A A- A
1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08 0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12
Jan
26		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- A+ C F D 29% 20% 51% D D B C B C A C A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 38% 21% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ F B- F
1.01 83% 38% 19% -4 -1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .49 72% .36 0.86 38% 27% 25% -16 -2 0.67 36% 0.4 .14 20% .81 63% .51
Jan
31		 Incarnate Word A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 14% 44% C A+ F A+ B A+ D A C F F F F F 33% 27% 40% B- F F A+ A A- F F F
1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27 1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Houston Christian C+ F F C+ F 41% 9% 50% B- F+ A+ A- A+ F A A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- B+ 42% 20% 38% C- B C A+ A+ F B F C+
1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36 0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 New Orleans A C+ F+ A B+ 35% 13% 52% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F B A+ C+ 40% 31% 29% B B- A+ F D+ C F C- F
1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40 1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ D B- A- 50% 7% 43% A A- A+ A+ A+ D B- A B+ C+ F D- A+ D+ 31% 23% 46% B+ C- B- C+ B- D- F A+ C-
1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32 1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20
Feb
14		 Stephen F. Austin F+ C- A+ F D+ 33% 20% 48% C- D+ C F D F+ F+ C D- C+ C D- A+ A- 38% 23% 38% D B+ F A+ B+ C F C+ F
0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16 1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
16		 Lamar B- D- F C F+ 46% 8% 46% A D C+ F D- A+ C+ B+ B- D+ A F+ F D- 38% 42% 20% B- D D+ A+ B+ F F+ A+ B
1.17 52% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.7 .23 3% .40 74% .29 1.09 42% 48% 50% +3 -3 1.02 36% 0.7 .25 12% .30 44% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.0 32.7 45.2 9.2 92.1 3rd
4th 0.3 4.0 2.2 6.5 4th
5th 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 9.8 34.9 45.2 9.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 9.3% 8.9% 8.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.4
14-8 45.2% 6.7% 6.7% 13.5 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 42.2
13-9 34.9% 5.6% 5.6% 14.3 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 32.9
12-10 9.8% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-11 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.7 93.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.6 0.8 40.5 51.8 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5%
Lose Out 0.4%