UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.1 142
Results Rating -0.6 168
Consistency 0.16 201
Pace 66.9 225
Improvement +4.1 47

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 157 C+ C- C- D- C+
Defense C 143 C B C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 240 C+ 59% 131 -0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 263 D 34% 306 -2.1 284
Three Pointers 46% 66 B- 36% 96 +4.3 46
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 147 C+ +1.2 122
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 125
Second Chance D+ 27.3% 265 C 1.03 187 C- 0.28 249
Opponents' Steals B- 8.4% 85
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 334
Turnovers C- 17.1% 212
Freethrows F 0.23 361 B 76% 66 D- 0.17 344
Total Offense C +0.3 157

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 132 C 10.6% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 195 D 7.1% 307
Three Pointers B- 87% 114 D+ 1.2% 278
Total B- 61% 68 C 5.6% 198


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 D+ 61% 253 +0.6 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 C+ 37% 146 +0.1 204
Three Pointers 41% 184 C+ 33% 110 -0.9 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 140 C +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 166
Second Chance C- 31.8% 254 A 0.83 7 B 0.26 54
Turnovers from Steals C 9.4% 187
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 207
Turnovers C 16.5% 194
Freethrows D 0.35 306 B- 70% 75 D+ 0.24 280
Total Defense C +0.8 143

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 355 D+ 9.0% 251
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 336 D+ 2.9% 301
Three Pointers D- 90% 347 C 0.9% 155
Total F+ 65% 347 D+ 4.4% 279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 239 17.2 173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 284 0.18 200
Consistency 0.16 359 0.11 93
Improvement +3.9 27 +0.3 181

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 143 129
Results Rating Rank 184 166 131
Conference Record 14 - 8 14 - 8 14 - 8
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 12% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 12% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Baylor L 81 - 96 11% -6  38% 0 - 1 C -0 C+ +2 A- F B- C -1 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 262 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 64% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +20 A +13 A+ C- D- B+ +6 B A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 60 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 15% -9  8% 1 - 2 D+ -8 F -10 B- D F B +4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 187 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 50% +2  68% 1 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ F D -5 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 5 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  19% 1 - 4 B+ +11 B +6 B- B- A+ B +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 99 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 26% -8  6% 1 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -10 F F A B +4 B+ B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 178 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 69% +0  48% 2 - 5 B +9 F -13 F+ A F A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 175 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 69% -0  40% 2 - 6 D- -12 F -13 D F D C -1 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 240 @Lamar W 83 - 72 61% +12  98% 3 - 6 1 - 1 B +9 B+ +9 A+ F B- C+ +0 F+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 199 New Orleans L 69 - 85 73% -8  7% 3 - 7 1 - 2 F -21 F+ -10 B+ F F F -11 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 246 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 80% -2  18% 3 - 8 1 - 3 D -10 F+ -10 F+ C F C -0 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 72% -1  27% 3 - 9 1 - 4 D -9 F+ -10 F F B C+ +0 B- F B-
 Mon, Jan 5 263 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 82% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +4 B- +4 D+ A C C+ +1 A- B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 74% -9  13% 4 - 10 2 - 5 D- -14 D+ -3 B- F+ D+ F -12 F F C+
 Mon, Jan 12 279 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 67% +4  90% 4 - 11 2 - 6 C- -4 F+ -9 D F F B +5 C+ B B+
 Sat, Jan 17 83 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 39% +10  89% 5 - 11 3 - 6 B- +7 A +13 A+ B A D -6 B- A- D
 Mon, Jan 19 286 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 85% +4  89% 6 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -7 D -5 C- F A- C- -2 D A D
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 70% +8  86% 7 - 11 5 - 6 B+ +13 C +1 A F C- A+ +14 D A- A+
 Mon, Jan 26 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 50% +3  66% 8 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C- -2 D- B- C- A+ +13 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 263 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 65% +7  77% 9 - 11 7 - 6 B +10 A+ +24 A+ B A+ F -14 F A A-
 Mon, Feb 2 285 Houston Christian W 74 - 57 85% +15  97% 10 - 11 8 - 6 B- +7 C+ +4 D- A+ F B+ +5 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 199 @New Orleans W 95 - 76 51% +16  98% 11 - 11 9 - 6 A +20 A +13 B+ A+ F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 246 @Nicholls St. W 92 - 72 62% +14  98% 12 - 11 10 - 6 A +18 A+ +17 A A+ D- C+ +1 C- B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Stephen F. Austin L 57 - 66 47% -5  0% 12 - 12 10 - 7 D+ -7 F -10 D D- F B- +2 B+ A- C
 Mon, Feb 16 240 Lamar W 70 - 65 80% +1  65% 13 - 12 11 - 7 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ D- -7 D- B F
 Sat, Feb 21 286 @SE Louisiana W 96 - 75 70% +16  99% 14 - 12 12 - 7 A- +17 A+ +31 A+ C+ A- F -12 F+ C- F
 Mon, Feb 23 83 @McNeese St. L 68 - 75 20% -4  13% 14 - 13 12 - 8 C+ +3 C- -1 A- F C B +4 B+ C B-
 Sat, Feb 28 304 East Texas A&M W 63 - 55 88% -5  17% 15 - 13 13 - 8 C- -4 D+ -3 F+ C C- C+ +1 B A F
 Mon, Mar 2 279 Northwestern St. W 74 - 62 84% +7  92% 16 - 13 14 - 8 C+ +3 C +1 B F B+ B- +2 C- B B+
Totals 16 - 13 14 - 8 +1 C +0 C- C+ C+ C +1 B- B D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D B- C+ 37% 30% 46% C+ C+ D+ C C- C- F B D- C D+ C+ C+ C 38% 21% 41% C C C- A B C D B- D+
1.09 59% 34% 36% +1 0 1.05 27% 1.0 .28 17% .23 76% .17 1.08 61% 37% 33% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.8 .26 16% .35 70% .16
Nov
3		 Baylor C+ A+ C+ A- A 19% 37% 44% C- A- F A+ F B- F A+ D C F B- F F 20% 33% 47% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ C- F A F
1.04 82% 41% 38% +8 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15 1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31
Nov
8		 Southern Utah A C F A+ A+ 47% 12% 42% A- A+ A+ F C- D- F F F B+ D A B+ B- 31% 27% 42% A- B C+ A+ A- F D A C-
1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05 0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19
Nov
11		 Boise St. F A D+ B- B 33% 39% 29% F+ B- F A- D F A+ F C- B A- A+ F C+ 42% 19% 40% C+ C+ F F F A+ F A+ F
0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17 1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34
Nov
22		 Missouri St. C- A+ F F F 37% 30% 33% B F A A+ A+ F B- A+ A- D F C+ A D+ 21% 19% 60% C D+ B A+ A+ F F F+ F
1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33
Nov
24		 Illinois B D+ F A+ B 28% 34% 38% C- B- C A B- A+ A F C+ B F A- A C- 34% 11% 55% C C A+ A+ A+ B+ D- F F
1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12 1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32
Dec
3		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F+ F F F 51% 20% 29% B- F D F F A C- C+ C- B B B+ C B 26% 36% 38% A B+ A- C+ B+ D- F D F
0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20 1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28
Dec
7		 Austin Peay F D A+ F D- 28% 26% 47% F+ F+ B- A+ A F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 14% 28% F A+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ B-
0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18 0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21
Dec
11		 Texas Arlington F C- F C D- 36% 20% 43% B- D F D F D F C+ F C D- D A C- 30% 16% 53% B- C D- B+ C B A+ C A
0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17 1.00 62% 43% 26% -5 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18
Dec
16		 Lamar B+ F+ C A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ F C- F B- F C- F C+ F C- D- F 18% 34% 48% B F+ A- A+ A+ B- F C- F
1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15 1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26
Dec
29		 New Orleans F+ A F A+ A- 31% 20% 49% D B+ C- F F F D F F F B+ F C- C 44% 19% 37% F+ C- C F F F B- F D
0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19 1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30
Dec
31		 Nicholls St. F+ F C- B+ F+ 41% 16% 43% C F+ B- D C F F+ C F+ C C C- B- C 35% 17% 48% C+ C D D D- A+ F F+ F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22 1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32
Jan
3		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ F+ A+ F F 40% 22% 38% D+ F D+ F F B C+ B+ B C+ A A F B 58% 24% 18% D+ B- F D- F B- F B F
0.94 50% 60% 12% -11 0 0.80 26% 0.7 .17 17% .42 77% .33 1.00 42% 27% 50% -8 +1 0.89 36% 1.1 .39 19% .47 63% .29
Jan
5		 Incarnate Word B- B A D- D 35% 8% 58% B- D+ A C+ A C F A+ D C+ A+ B+ C- A 40% 26% 34% C A- F A+ B+ D- F C+ F+
1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24 1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25
Jan
10		 East Texas A&M D+ C- F A C+ 47% 4% 49% A- B- D F F+ D+ F+ D+ F+ F F B- F+ F 33% 13% 54% D+ F F F F C+ C B C+
1.05 57% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 18% .24 69% .17 1.17 69% 33% 38% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.4 .50 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
12		 Northwestern St. F+ C F D- F+ 45% 8% 47% A- D F A+ F F F A+ F B D A- A C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ B- B+ B B+ F D F
0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13 0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34
Jan
17		 McNeese St. A B B+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% D+ A+ F A+ B A D+ B C- D D F A+ C+ 35% 25% 40% B+ B- F A+ A- D F F F
1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27 1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37
Jan
19		 SE Louisiana D F+ A+ D D+ 32% 18% 50% C C- D- F F A- A F+ B C- F+ A+ D D 37% 22% 41% D+ D B- A+ A D C- C+ C
1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31 0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22
Jan
24		 Houston Christian C B F A+ A- 58% 4% 38% A+ A F F F C- F A+ F A+ B- D+ D- D- 37% 24% 39% B- D D A+ A- A+ A A- A
1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08 0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12
Jan
26		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- A+ C F D 29% 20% 51% D D- B C- B- C- A C A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 38% 21% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ F B F
1.01 83% 38% 19% -4 -1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .49 72% .36 0.86 38% 27% 25% -16 -2 0.67 36% 0.4 .14 20% .81 63% .51
Jan
31		 Incarnate Word A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 14% 44% C+ A+ F A+ B A+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F 33% 27% 40% B- F F A+ A A- F F+ F
1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27 1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Houston Christian C+ F F B- F+ 41% 9% 50% B- D- A+ B+ A+ F A A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C+ B+ 42% 20% 38% D+ B C A+ A+ F B F C+
1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36 0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 New Orleans A C+ F+ A A- 35% 13% 52% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F B A+ C+ 40% 31% 29% B B- A+ F D+ C F C- F
1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40 1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ D- B- A- 50% 7% 43% A- A A+ A+ A+ D- B A- A- C+ F D- A+ D+ 31% 23% 46% A- C- B C B- D- F A+ D+
1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32 1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20
Feb
14		 Stephen F. Austin F D+ A+ F D 33% 20% 48% C- D C F D- F D- C- D- B- C D- A+ A- 38% 23% 38% D B+ F A+ A- C F B- F
0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16 1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
16		 Lamar B- D- F C F+ 46% 8% 46% A D C+ F D- A+ C+ B B- D- A F+ F F+ 38% 42% 20% B- D- D+ A+ B F F A+ B-
1.17 52% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.7 .23 3% .40 74% .29 1.09 42% 48% 50% +3 -3 1.02 36% 0.7 .25 12% .30 44% .13
Feb
21		 SE Louisiana A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% C A+ F A+ C+ A- C- A+ A- F D- F A F+ 46% 21% 33% F+ F+ F A+ C- F F C+ F
1.50 83% 38% 56% +25 0 1.51 21% 1.8 .37 16% .35 95% .33 1.18 64% 50% 25% +1 +1 1.04 39% 0.7 .27 9% .61 66% .40
Feb
23		 McNeese St. C- A+ A+ F+ A- 31% 13% 56% C+ A- F B F C D- F F B C A+ A+ B+ 45% 22% 33% C+ B+ C+ D+ C B- F B- F
0.99 86% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 21% 1.2 .25 25% .33 59% .19 1.09 59% 27% 25% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.1 .35 15% .49 72% .36
Feb
28		 East Texas A&M D+ F+ C+ D- F 44% 12% 44% B- F+ D A C C- C A B- C+ B- F A+ B+ 31% 17% 52% C+ B D- A+ A F F D+ F
1.09 47% 40% 32% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.3 .38 17% .32 80% .25 0.96 53% 50% 24% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.4 .12 7% .35 68% .24
Mar
2		 Northwestern St. C B+ F A+ B 45% 15% 40% B- B F F F B+ F D+ F B- C+ D- A+ C+ 61% 20% 18% F C- C- A+ B B+ F A+ D+
1.15 67% 25% 43% +7 +1 1.19 21% 0.7 .15 14% .18 70% .13 0.96 52% 44% 25% -5 +2 0.95 25% 0.9 .22 20% .43 59% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 100.0% 8.1% 8.1% 13.3 0.7 4.6 2.6 0.3 91.9
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 13.3 91.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 13.3 8.5 56.2 32.0 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 48.4%
Lose Out 31.9%