High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 89
Expected Predictive Rating +5.0 96
Pace 72.7 73
Improvement -0.3 194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 60 C+ B- B+ B+ B+
Defense C 149 C- C- A C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 67 B- 63% 79 +4.5 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 309 D+ 36% 256 -3.3 332
Three Pointers 44% 123 C- 32% 241 +0.6 156
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.2 33 C +0.6 147
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 114
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 140 B 1.15 40 B- 0.36 71
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 23
Freethrows B 0.35 40 B 76% 71 B+ 0.27 31
Total Offense B +5.7 60

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 257 C 11.4% 207
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 339 C 5.4% 211
Three Pointers B- 88% 83 D- 1.6% 325
Total C 55% 195 C- 6.3% 259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 160 D+ 61% 255 +1.5 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 C 39% 207 -1.4 79
Three Pointers 44% 82 C 34% 181 +1.6 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 272 C- +1.1 222
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 233
Second Chance C- 31.8% 237 C- 1.05 228 C- 0.34 246
Turnovers A 22.0% 10
Freethrows C- 0.31 212 C+ 72% 140 C 0.22 213
Total Defense C +0.7 149

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 267 B- 13.4% 83
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 266 D 2.1% 324
Three Pointers D+ 88% 291 B 1.7% 53
Total D+ 61% 298 C+ 6.4% 121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 43 17.9 270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 14 0.17 186
Improvement -2.9 #319 +2.6 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60% 61% 54%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 85% 100% 33%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round60% 61% 54%
Second Round7% 7% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 35 - 4
Quad 421 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 179 Furman W 97 - 71 77% +17  89% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +18 A+ B- A+ B+ +6 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 308 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 94% +11  80% 2 - 0 B +9 B +6 F+ C- A+ B +4 B C B
 Fri, Nov 14 121 @UAB L 74 - 91 52% -3  21% 2 - 1 D -11 D -5 D D+ D D+ -4 F A- B
 Mon, Nov 17 345 Canisius W 93 - 50 97% +25  97% 3 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +18 A+ A- A+ A+ +12 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 106 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 59% +6  96% 4 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +15 A- C A C -1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 275 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 88% +5  61% 5 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +16 C+ A+ A- F -11 C+ F C
 Sat, Nov 29 253 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 91% +7  62% 6 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 A+ F+ F+ B +5 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 128 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 75% +3  60% 6 - 2 C- -3 B+ +9 B- B- A F -11 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 315 NJIT W 89 - 72 95% +12  97% 7 - 2 C+ +5 B- +5 D A A- C -1 F+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 14 174 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 76% -2  30% 7 - 3 D -9 C- -2 D+ F B+ D -6 F A- C
 Fri, Dec 19 212 La Salle W 84 - 72 87% +8  96% 8 - 3 B- +6 A +13 A- B+ A D -6 D+ C+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 354 Bryant W 93 - 47 98% +27  94% 9 - 3 A+ +29 A+ +18 A A+ F A+ +15 B- C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 226 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 75% +11  96% 10 - 3 1 - 0 A- +17 A+ +16 A+ A C- B- +2 B D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 269 Longwood W 80 - 67 92% +7  90% 11 - 3 2 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 C A- B+ C- -2 D- D B
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 99% +38  99% 12 - 3 3 - 0 A+ +34 B +6 D+ A- A- A+ +21 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 80% -2  27% 13 - 3 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -3 D+ D+ C+ B- +3 C B- F+
 Wed, Jan 14 136 @Winthrop L 75 - 92 57% -15  3% 13 - 4 4 - 1 D- -13 C +0 C- F B F -12 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 302 South Carolina Upstate W 89 - 69 94% +7  96% 14 - 4 5 - 1 B +9 A +14 C A+ A+ D+ -4 B- F A-
 Fri, Jan 23 233 @Radford W 93 - 83 76% +1  55% 15 - 4 6 - 1 B +9 A +11 A D- A+ C- -3 F B- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 271 Presbyterian W 84 - 81 92% +2  66% 16 - 4 7 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 F+ B+ A+ F -13 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 269 @Longwood W 71 - 59 82% +6  77% 17 - 4 8 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 D D A+ A- +7 B- C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 257 Charleston Southern W 80 - 55 91% +11  89% 18 - 4 9 - 1 A- +17 C +1 C+ B C+ A+ +16 C- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 233 Radford W 86 - 77 89% +3  85% 19 - 4 10 - 1 C+ +2 D -4 F+ D C+ B+ +5 B F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 95 - 70 86% +15  96% 20 - 4 11 - 1 A +20 A +13 D A+ A B+ +5 F C+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 363 @Gardner-Webb W 112 - 87 97% +15  98% 21 - 4 12 - 1 B +10 A+ +18 A B+ F F -10 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 226 UNC Asheville W 74 - 48 88% +13  94% 22 - 4 13 - 1 A +19 C+ +3 D+ B- A- A+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 136 Winthrop W 86 - 78 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 271 @Presbyterian W 79 - 69 82%
Totals 24 - 4 15 - 1 +6 B +6 A+ C B+ C +1 C- B B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B- D+ C- C 43% 26% 44% B+ C+ C+ B B- B+ B B B+ C D+ C C C- 39% 17% 44% D+ C- C- C- C- A C- C+ C
1.17 63% 36% 32% +1 +1 1.06 32% 1.1 .36 14% .35 76% .27 1.08 61% 39% 34% +1 +1 1.05 32% 1.1 .34 22% .31 72% .25
Nov
3		 Furman A+ A+ C+ A- A+ 43% 28% 30% C- A+ D A+ B- A+ D+ F F+ B+ D- D- B+ C- 40% 17% 44% C+ C- F A+ C+ A+ F F+ F
1.33 81% 41% 39% +13 -1 1.26 26% 1.3 .34 8% .22 53% .12 0.97 68% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.08 44% 0.6 .26 30% .37 74% .27
Nov
11		 Jacksonville B D F C F 48% 13% 38% B F+ D B+ C- A+ A A A+ B B A+ B- B+ 32% 8% 60% F+ B D B+ C B C- C+ C
1.23 56% 14% 35% -4 +2 0.98 25% 1.1 .28 4% .46 77% .35 0.93 50% 0% 30% -9 +1 0.86 32% 0.9 .29 20% .29 69% .20
Nov
14		 UAB D A D- F D- 42% 18% 40% B- D C+ F+ D+ D A+ D+ A+ D+ D F C+ F 48% 27% 25% C F A- B+ A- B F F+ F
0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35 1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40
Nov
17		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 37% 11% 53% B A+ D- A+ A- A+ F A F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 38% C A+ F C- F A+ F B+ F
1.40 81% 67% 37% +14 +1 1.32 26% 1.7 .44 9% .17 80% .13 0.75 33% 30% 20% -19 -1 0.63 39% 0.9 .37 32% .55 64% .35
Nov
20		 Illinois-Chicago A+ C+ F A+ A- 39% 11% 50% B A- C C+ C A A+ A- A+ C F C+ A+ D+ 33% 23% 44% B- D+ F D F A+ F B- F
1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49 1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31
Nov
22		 Incarnate Word A+ B+ A F+ C 56% 8% 35% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F B- F+ B+ C+ 32% 22% 46% C C+ F+ F F C F F F
1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45 1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31
Nov
29		 Western Carolina B A A+ A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C- A+ C F F+ F+ B- D C+ B F F C- F 31% 24% 45% B+ F B A+ A+ A+ D A C
1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25 0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20
Dec
3		 Southern Illinois B+ D- F A+ C+ 42% 15% 42% B B- C+ B- B- A A B+ A+ F C+ A+ F C 45% 24% 31% D C D F F C A D B+
1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29 1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16
Dec
5		 NJIT B- C- F D- D- 49% 9% 42% A D C A+ A A- C B- C+ C C+ F D F+ 22% 8% 69% F+ F+ B F C- A+ C+ D- C
1.21 57% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.4 .49 11% .35 74% .26 0.98 55% 50% 35% +2 0 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 26% .29 75% .22
Dec
14		 Appalachian St. C- C- F D- 37% 0% 63% A D+ B- F F B+ A+ F B- D A+ F F F 36% 13% 51% D+ F A+ C+ A- C F F F
1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22 1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30
Dec
19		 La Salle A D+ F A+ A- 36% 11% 53% B A- D+ A+ B+ A A+ A A+ D C B- D D+ 48% 26% 26% C- D+ B D+ C+ C F F F
1.28 53% 20% 48% +7 +1 1.19 26% 1.6 .42 12% .48 75% .36 1.10 55% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 18% .60 81% .48
Dec
22		 Bryant A+ B A+ A- A 54% 5% 41% A A A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ A- F A+ A- 54% 5% 41% F B- C C- C A+ D- A+ C+
1.45 64% 100% 41% +11 +3 1.29 58% 1.5 .88 20% .63 69% .43 0.73 45% 100% 20% -12 +3 0.84 28% 1.0 .28 34% .31 62% .19
Dec
31		 UNC Asheville A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C- A+ F A+ A C- A+ B+ A+ B- F A+ A+ B+ 32% 38% 30% C B B+ F D- F F A- D
1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34 1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25
Jan
3		 Longwood B A+ F F C- 51% 8% 41% A- C D- A+ A- B+ B A A- C- D- A- C- D 44% 16% 40% F+ D- C- F+ D B A A- A
1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30 1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16
Jan
7		 Gardner-Webb B D+ A+ F D- 48% 12% 40% B+ D+ B A- A- A- A- B A A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 36% 13% 52% C A+ B+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28 0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04
Jan
10		 Charleston Southern D+ B- F C- D 49% 25% 25% B- D+ C+ F D+ C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ F F+ C+ 46% 10% 44% D C A+ F B- F+ B A- B
1.04 59% 13% 33% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.8 .25 11% .56 60% .33 1.01 41% 67% 39% -1 +2 1.03 19% 1.1 .21 15% .22 60% .13
Jan
14		 Winthrop C A F+ F D+ 35% 12% 53% B- C- C+ F F B A+ D+ A+ F F+ B- D+ F 44% 6% 50% F+ F C F F D F A F
1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33 1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36
Jan
17		 South Carolina Upstate A C A+ F+ C- 47% 15% 38% B- C B- A+ A+ A+ B- C B- D+ A A+ C- B 38% 16% 46% D B- F D+ F A- C D- D+
1.31 58% 50% 29% -2 +1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 7% .33 71% .24 1.02 42% 25% 35% -8 +1 0.88 40% 1.0 .40 22% .30 75% .23
Jan
23		 Radford A A- F A+ A 37% 8% 55% B- A F A D- A+ A+ B A+ C- D- C- F F 43% 9% 47% F+ F D A B- A+ B- C+ B-
1.26 68% 25% 43% +10 +2 1.25 21% 1.3 .28 10% .50 76% .38 1.13 65% 40% 40% +8 +2 1.21 32% 0.8 .26 24% .32 72% .23
Jan
29		 Presbyterian B D+ A F F 53% 11% 36% B+ F+ B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F D- C F F 39% 36% 25% A- F D- F F B- F F F
1.22 55% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 36% 1.1 .40 6% .43 79% .34 1.18 65% 38% 55% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.2 .44 22% .45 79% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Longwood C+ B- F D- D- 50% 7% 43% A- D F A+ D A+ B- A+ A A- D+ A+ B- B 34% 23% 43% C+ B- D B C A+ A+ D- A
1.12 65% 0% 30% -1 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31 0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16
Feb
4		 Charleston Southern C B- F F C- 58% 15% 27% A+ C+ B B- B C+ D+ B+ C- A+ F B- B D+ 29% 7% 63% C C- F+ A+ B+ A+ A F B-
1.14 59% 25% 27% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.1 .36 11% .32 75% .24 0.78 75% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.07 35% 0.6 .19 41% .17 86% .14
Feb
7		 Radford D C F F F 59% 4% 37% A+ F+ B- F D C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D F A+ A- 37% 8% 55% D- B D F+ F+ A+ F A D
1.08 59% 0% 22% -8 +4 0.94 35% 0.8 .30 18% .57 84% .47 0.97 63% 50% 21% -7 +2 0.90 33% 1.2 .38 24% .46 64% .30
Feb
12		 South Carolina Upstate A D D+ F+ F+ 47% 5% 48% A- D B- A+ A+ A A- B+ A B+ F+ A+ D+ F+ 45% 11% 45% F F F A+ C+ A+ F C F
1.27 52% 33% 29% -7 +3 0.93 34% 1.8 .61 11% .37 76% .28 0.93 65% 25% 35% +2 +2 1.11 36% 0.7 .25 36% .62 70% .44
Feb
14		 Gardner-Webb A+ A+ A+ B+ A 33% 10% 57% C+ A A+ D- B+ F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 56% 11% 33% F F A+ A+ A+ F F A- F+
1.43 79% 67% 39% +14 +1 1.33 52% 0.9 .48 20% .47 90% .42 1.11 60% 67% 50% +12 +2 1.31 0% 0.0 .00 13% .38 62% .24
Feb
19		 UNC Asheville C+ C- A+ F F+ 53% 2% 45% A+ D+ A D- B- A- C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F A+ F+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A
1.15 56% 100% 26% -5 +3 0.98 42% 0.8 .33 12% .32 78% .25 0.75 43% 25% 25% -14 -1 0.72 36% 0.7 .24 25% .27 54% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 21.1 63.3 84.6 1st
2nd 4.4 10.9 15.4 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 4.6 32.1 63.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 63.3    63.3
14-2 65.9% 21.1    7.4 13.8
13-3 4.4% 0.2    0.2
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 84.6% 84.6 70.7 14.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 63.3% 62.1% 62.1% 12.4 1.6 22.6 14.6 0.5 24.0
14-2 32.1% 56.0% 56.0% 12.7 0.2 6.1 10.3 1.3 0.0 14.1
13-3 4.6% 52.1% 52.1% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.2
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 59.7% 59.7% 0.0% 12.5 40.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 39.3% 100.0% 12.4 4.1 57.4 37.2 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.7%
Lose Out 0.6%