High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#304
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#277
Pace79.1#10
Improvement-2.7#359

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#294
First Shot-3.4#293
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks+1.9#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#290
Freethrows+0.6#131
Improvement-1.8#356

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#294
First Shot-2.4#253
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#316
Layups/Dunks-5.7#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#5
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement-0.9#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.5% 13.9% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 3.3% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 9.6% 26.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 30 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 911 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 215   Wofford W 91-80 39%     1 - 0 +6.0 +10.7 -5.0
  Nov 18, 2022 76   @ UNLV L 68-78 6%     1 - 1 -0.3 -4.9 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2022 299   Central Michigan W 68-67 49%     2 - 1 -6.6 -9.7 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 77-72 55%     3 - 1 -4.1 -4.8 +0.5
  Nov 30, 2022 334   Elon W 84-70 70%     4 - 1 +0.9 +0.1 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2022 282   North Florida W 93-88 56%     5 - 1 -4.3 +2.1 -6.8
  Dec 06, 2022 87   @ Furman W 85-82 7%     6 - 1 +11.5 +11.0 +0.4
  Dec 09, 2022 221   Queens L 79-87 41%     6 - 2 -13.5 -8.4 -4.4
  Dec 18, 2022 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 82-85 15%     6 - 3 +0.4 +5.2 -4.5
  Dec 21, 2022 205   @ East Carolina L 49-60 20%     6 - 4 -10.0 -27.2 +18.1
  Dec 29, 2022 181   @ Longwood L 73-87 17%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -11.7 -0.1 -11.3
  Dec 31, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb L 73-80 35%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -10.9 -0.1 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2023 188   UNC Asheville L 72-76 35%     6 - 7 0 - 3 -7.9 -5.3 -2.4
  Jan 07, 2023 306   @ South Carolina Upstate L 57-76 40%     6 - 8 0 - 4 -24.3 -21.2 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2023 280   @ Charleston Southern L 69-106 34%     6 - 9 0 - 5 -40.6 -15.2 -22.9
  Jan 14, 2023 330   Presbyterian W 64-56 68%     7 - 9 1 - 5 -4.7 -8.9 +4.9
  Jan 18, 2023 244   Winthrop W 71-66 47%     8 - 9 2 - 5 -2.0 -12.7 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2023 178   @ Radford L 80-95 17%     8 - 10 2 - 6 -12.5 +5.5 -17.3
  Jan 25, 2023 255   Campbell L 64-72 49%     8 - 11 2 - 7 -15.6 -8.5 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2023 192   @ Gardner-Webb L 58-86 19%     8 - 12 2 - 8 -26.5 -7.2 -20.7
  Feb 02, 2023 188   @ UNC Asheville L 71-80 18%    
  Feb 04, 2023 280   Charleston Southern W 79-78 56%    
  Feb 08, 2023 255   @ Campbell L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 181   Longwood L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 15, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 306   South Carolina Upstate W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 178   Radford L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 244   @ Winthrop L 76-82 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 2.2 0.2 5.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.4 6.0 0.7 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.8 7.9 11.7 2.6 0.0 23.0 8th
9th 0.4 6.1 18.6 18.6 5.1 0.2 48.9 9th
10th 2.1 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.3 10th
Total 2.5 11.0 22.3 27.1 21.4 11.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6
7-11 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.0
6-12 21.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 21.2
5-13 27.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 26.9
4-14 22.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.2
3-15 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 2.5%