High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.5 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +3.6 #111
Pace 72.1 #94
Improvement -3.3 #320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B- B- B+ B+ B
Defense #184 C- C- B+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.27 #67 +4.4 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #308 0.71 #249 -2.9 #318
Three Pointers 44% #131 1.02 #182 +1.5 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #87 +3.0 #91
Freethrows 0.36 #33 74% #134 0.26 #34
Second Chance 30.6% #180 1.20 #31 0.37 #78
Turnovers 13.3% #23
Total Offense +6.1 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.20 #246 -1.6 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.81 #263 +1.1 #107
Three Pointers 44% #93 1.02 #181 -1.4 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #243 -1.9 #245
Freethrows 0.30 #178 72% #149 0.22 #171
Second Chance 31.2% #202 1.10 #268 0.34 #244
Turnovers 19.6% #37
Total Defense -0.5 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #53 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #107 2.4% #227
Possession Length 15.9 #51 18.1 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #23 0.16 #132
Improvement -2.7 #323 -0.6 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.3% 52.9% 45.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 77.9% 79.9% 55.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.3% 52.9% 45.5%
Second Round5.8% 6.0% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 91.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 25 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 Furman W 97 - 71 70% +17  1 - 0 +26 +21 A+ C A+ +4 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 284 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 92% +11  2 - 0 +11 +10 F C A+ +2 B C B+
 Fri, Nov 14 118 @UAB L 74 - 91 49% -3  2 - 1 -11 -4 D D+ D -6 F A B
 Mon, Nov 17 342 Canisius W 93 - 50 96% +25  3 - 1 +28 +21 A+ A- A +10 A+ F+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 135 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 65% +6  4 - 1 +12 +15 A- C B -4 C- F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 230 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 82% +5  5 - 1 +7 +22 B- A+ A -14 C F B-
 Sat, Nov 29 273 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 91% +7  6 - 1 +11 +8 A F+ F+ +1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 144 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 77% +3  6 - 2 -4 +8 C+ C+ B -12 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 340 NJIT W 89 - 72 96% +12  7 - 2 +3 +7 D- A B+ -5 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 14 202 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 78% -2  7 - 3 -11 -0 D+ F B+ -10 F A- C-
 Fri, Dec 19 199 La Salle W 84 - 72 85% +8  8 - 3 +6 +14 A- B A -7 C B- C
 Mon, Dec 22 346 Bryant W 93 - 47 96% +27  9 - 3 +31 +23 A+ A+ F +12 B- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 204 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 70% +11  10 - 3 1 - 0 +18 +19 A+ A C- +0 B D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 262 Longwood W 80 - 67 90% +7  11 - 3 2 - 0 +5 +8 C- B+ B -2 D- D+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 98% +38  12 - 3 3 - 0 +34 +8 D+ B+ B+ +19 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 232 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 74% -2  13 - 3 4 - 0 +1 +0 D+ D+ C +1 B- C+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 125 @Winthrop L 75 - 92 52% -15  13 - 4 4 - 1 -12 +3 C- F B -15 F+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 306 South Carolina Upstate W 89 - 69 93% +7  14 - 4 5 - 1 +8 +15 C- A+ A+ -6 B- F A
 Fri, Jan 23 253 @Radford W 93 - 83 77% +1  15 - 4 6 - 1 +8 +12 A- F+ A+ -5 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 269 Presbyterian W 82 - 67 92%
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Longwood W 84 - 76 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 232 Charleston Southern W 89 - 76 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 253 Radford W 92 - 78 90%
 Thu, Feb 12 306 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Gardner-Webb W 96 - 69 99%
 Thu, Feb 19 204 UNC Asheville W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 125 Winthrop W 85 - 79 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 269 @Presbyterian W 79 - 70 79%
Totals 23 - 5 14 - 2 +6 +6 B- B- B+ -1 C- C- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.0 15.2 33.6 25.9 77.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.2 8.8 2.2 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 10.2 24.0 35.8 25.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 25.9    25.9
14-2 93.9% 33.6    25.0 8.6
13-3 63.2% 15.2    7.7 7.4 0.0
12-4 29.0% 3.0    0.8 1.9 0.2 0.0
11-5 8.6% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 77.9% 77.9 59.4 18.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 25.9% 60.3% 60.3% 12.1 1.9 10.5 3.2 0.1 10.3
14-2 35.8% 55.1% 55.1% 12.8 0.1 5.8 11.2 2.5 0.0 16.1
13-3 24.0% 46.8% 46.8% 13.2 1.5 6.3 3.3 0.2 12.8
12-4 10.2% 42.0% 42.0% 13.5 0.2 2.0 1.8 0.2 5.9
11-5 3.4% 35.7% 35.7% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 2.2
10-6 0.6% 29.4% 29.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 52.3% 52.3% 0.0% 12.8 47.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.6% 100.0% 12.1 12.1 67.1 20.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3%