High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#101
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#148
Pace72.4#99
Improvement-2.0#305

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#54
First Shot+5.2#54
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#105
Layup/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+2.8#33
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#143
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
Freethrows-1.8#297
Improvement-1.4#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.3% 52.3% 44.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 69.5% 75.3% 53.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round50.3% 52.3% 44.6%
Second Round5.8% 6.5% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 4
Quad 420 - 324 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 148 Furman W 97-71 67%     1 - 0 +26.9 +20.1 +5.6
  Tue, Nov 11 317 Jacksonville W 85-64 94%     2 - 0 +8.9 +8.1 +1.1
  Fri, Nov 14 107 @UAB L 74-91 42%     2 - 1 -9.8 -3.6 -4.4
  Mon, Nov 17 347 Canisius W 93-50 96%     3 - 1 +27.8 +20.6 +9.6
  Thu, Nov 20 200 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 77%     4 - 1 +7.6 +11.9 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 22 162 Incarnate Word W 91-80 70%     5 - 1 +10.7 +21.2 -9.7
  Sat, Nov 29 299 Western Carolina W 93-73 92%     6 - 1 +9.5 +10.4 -2.0
  Wed, Dec 3 130 Southern Illinois L 84-86 73%     6 - 2 -3.0 +7.1 -10.0
  Fri, Dec 5 353 NJIT W 89-72 97%     7 - 2 +0.7 +7.1 -7.2
  Sun, Dec 14 228 Appalachian St. L 78-86 OT 81%     7 - 3 -12.1 -0.5 -11.0
  Fri, Dec 19 233 La Salle W 84-72 88%     8 - 3 +4.6 +14.4 -9.0
  Mon, Dec 22 311 Bryant W 93-47 93%     9 - 3 +34.2 +24.3 +14.1
  Wed, Dec 31 232 @UNC Asheville W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 298 Longwood W 89-73 93%    
  Wed, Jan 7 362 Gardner-Webb W 94-70 99%    
  Sat, Jan 10 239 @Charleston Southern W 85-78 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 125 @Winthrop L 84-85 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 264 South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 261 @Radford W 90-82 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 286 Presbyterian W 80-65 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 298 @Longwood W 86-76 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 239 Charleston Southern W 88-75 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 261 Radford W 93-79 90%    
  Thu, Feb 12 264 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 Gardner-Webb W 94-70 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 232 UNC Asheville W 84-71 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 125 Winthrop W 88-82 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 286 @Presbyterian W 77-68 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.1 15.9 20.6 17.3 6.7 69.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.9 8.0 5.4 1.6 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.6 9.2 15.5 21.3 22.2 17.3 6.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.7    6.7
15-1 100.0% 17.3    16.8 0.6
14-2 92.9% 20.6    17.7 2.9 0.0
13-3 74.7% 15.9    11.0 4.8 0.2
12-4 46.1% 7.1    3.5 3.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 18.5% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0
10-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 69.5% 69.5 56.0 12.2 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.7% 68.3% 68.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.9 2.3 0.3 2.1
15-1 17.3% 62.6% 62.6% 12.6 0.3 4.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 6.5
14-2 22.2% 55.3% 55.3% 13.1 0.0 2.1 7.1 2.9 0.1 9.9
13-3 21.3% 50.0% 50.0% 13.5 0.6 5.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 10.7
12-4 15.5% 42.4% 42.4% 13.8 0.2 2.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.9
11-5 9.2% 35.7% 35.7% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 5.9
10-6 4.6% 30.5% 30.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 3.2
9-7 2.0% 21.8% 21.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
8-8 0.8% 22.4% 22.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
7-9 0.2% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-10 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 50.3% 50.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 2.2 10.1 20.1 14.6 3.0 0.2 49.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 11.6 0.3 1.8 41.7 50.4 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%