Indiana
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#31
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#50
Pace70.1#148
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#70
First Shot+6.6#23
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#302
Layup/Dunks+5.9#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#174
Freethrows+3.6#19
Improvement+0.9#103

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#18
First Shot+5.9#32
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#93
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#60
Freethrows-0.9#246
Improvement-0.7#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 4.8% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 11.2% 18.8% 7.0%
Top 6 Seed 25.8% 39.0% 18.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.0% 80.3% 58.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.4% 78.9% 56.6%
Average Seed 7.2 6.6 7.7
.500 or above 95.7% 98.7% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.0% 83.3% 61.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 8.7% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four5.2% 4.0% 5.9%
First Round63.6% 78.5% 55.3%
Second Round38.6% 50.4% 32.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.8% 21.9% 12.4%
Elite Eight6.6% 9.2% 5.1%
Final Four2.6% 3.7% 1.9%
Championship Game1.0% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 29 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 266   Eastern Michigan W 68-62 96%     1 - 0 -2.7 -14.5 +11.3
  Nov 12, 2021 319   Northern Illinois W 85-49 98%     2 - 0 +23.7 +5.5 +16.5
  Nov 17, 2021 79   St. John's W 76-74 79%     3 - 0 +5.5 +1.6 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2021 189   Louisiana W 76-44 92%     4 - 0 +28.0 -2.3 +28.0
  Nov 23, 2021 244   Jackson St. W 70-35 95%     5 - 0 +27.6 +4.0 +26.8
  Nov 27, 2021 126   Marshall W 90-79 87%     6 - 0 +10.8 +6.7 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2021 59   @ Syracuse L 110-112 2OT 54%     6 - 1 +8.9 +10.2 -0.7
  Dec 04, 2021 109   Nebraska W 68-55 84%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +14.1 -5.2 +18.9
  Dec 08, 2021 28   @ Wisconsin L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 12, 2021 240   Merrimack W 70-51 96%    
  Dec 18, 2021 84   Notre Dame W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 22, 2021 232   Northern Kentucky W 75-57 96%    
  Dec 29, 2021 255   UNC Asheville W 79-59 97%    
  Jan 02, 2022 92   @ Penn St. W 65-62 62%    
  Jan 06, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 09, 2022 71   Minnesota W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 20   @ Iowa L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 17, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 1   Purdue L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 23, 2022 21   Michigan W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 92   Penn St. W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 60   @ Maryland W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 17   Illinois W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 08, 2022 39   @ Northwestern L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 18   @ Michigan St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 15, 2022 28   Wisconsin W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 24, 2022 60   Maryland W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 27, 2022 71   @ Minnesota W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 02, 2022 102   Rutgers W 71-61 82%    
  Mar 05, 2022 1   @ Purdue L 66-78 15%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.8 8.4 10.8 13.0 13.7 13.0 11.1 8.0 5.4 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 92.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 79.0% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 50.6% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 22.9% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.9% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.3 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.0% 99.7% 10.2% 89.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 11.1% 99.0% 7.4% 91.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 13.0% 95.1% 4.4% 90.7% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 94.8%
11-9 13.7% 85.6% 2.3% 83.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.0 85.2%
10-10 13.0% 65.3% 1.6% 63.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.5 64.8%
9-11 10.8% 31.4% 0.9% 30.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.4 30.8%
8-12 8.4% 8.8% 0.7% 8.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.7 8.2%
7-13 5.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.9%
6-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.4
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 66.0% 4.6% 61.4% 7.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.2 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.0 7.8 6.3 5.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 34.0 64.4%