Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.7 37
Expected Predictive Rating +13.8 43
Pace 67.1 224
Improvement -3.8 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 31 A C B+ B B+
Defense B 53 A- C+ C- C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 159 B+ 66% 31 +3.6 61
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 356 A+ 54% 1 -2.8 311
Three Pointers 51% 18 B 37% 72 +7.3 16
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 25 A- +6.6 20
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 14
Second Chance C 29.6% 203 B- 1.09 91 C 0.32 146
Turnovers B+ 14.1% 32
Freethrows B- 0.33 89 B+ 78% 14 B 0.26 46
Total Offense A- +8.7 31

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 60% 33 C 11.2% 193
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 100 A 0.5% 2
Three Pointers B- 88% 114 C 0.9% 195
Total A- 67% 17 B- 4.9% 100

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 A 48% 13 -5.6 30
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 24 C+ 37% 119 +2.3 336
Three Pointers 37% 277 B- 32% 86 -3.0 61
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.2 26 B+ -5.0 29
1st FG Attempt A- 0.90 30
Second Chance B 26.6% 54 D+ 1.09 278 C+ 0.29 118
Turnovers C- 16.4% 207
Freethrows C 0.30 189 D+ 74% 282 C 0.23 214
Total Defense B +4.9 53

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 36% 8 C+ 12.4% 115
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 162 C- 4.1% 227
Three Pointers C+ 82% 124 D+ 0.5% 276
Total B+ 47% 26 C 5.6% 171

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 163 18.3 315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 207 0.12 31
Improvement -0.3 #202 -3.5 #331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 44 37 29
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 7
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 2% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61% 65% 45%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61% 65% 45%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 82% 91% 48%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 19% 18%
First Round53% 58% 38%
Second Round24% 27% 15%
Sweet Sixteen5% 6% 3%
Elite Eight2% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 17 - 13
Quad 37 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 307 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98% +31  96% 1 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ C C A+ +18 A A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 87 Marquette W 100 - 77 76% +12  90% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +21 A+ B+ A+ A- +7 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 97% +13  97% 3 - 0 A +22 A+ +19 A+ A- A+ B- +3 D B- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 275 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 97% +10  87% 4 - 0 C -2 D- -7 F+ C- C B+ +6 B B D+
 Thu, Nov 20 260 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97% +14  99% 5 - 0 B+ +11 D -5 F C A+ A+ +16 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Nov 25 92 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 84% +13  99% 6 - 0 A +20 B- +5 A+ D+ F+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 241 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 96% +26  98% 7 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +22 A+ D A A+ +14 A+ B D
 Wed, Dec 3 66 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 58% -1  39% 7 - 1 0 - 1 C+ +3 C- -1 C- C- A+ B- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 12 Louisville L 78 - 87 30% -12  0% 7 - 2 B +10 B +6 C+ A+ C B +5 C A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 115 Penn St. W 113 - 72 89% +28  98% 8 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +41 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ A +9 A C- A
 Sat, Dec 13 25 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 31% +0  57% 8 - 3 B- +7 D -4 D- C F A +11 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 351 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99% +18  100% 9 - 3 C+ +3 D -5 B F+ C A +8 B- A D-
 Mon, Dec 22 192 Siena W 81 - 60 95% +18  98% 10 - 3 A- +16 B- +4 B F D A+ +12 A+ C+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 44 Washington W 90 - 80 69% +7  86% 11 - 3 2 - 1 A +19 A+ +27 A+ A A+ D- -8 B D F
 Wed, Jan 7 107 @Maryland W 84 - 66 74% +6  74% 12 - 3 3 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 B- B+ C+ A+ +12 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 13 Nebraska L 77 - 83 41% +1  41% 12 - 4 3 - 2 B +10 A+ +15 A A+ C D -6 D+ C D+
 Tue, Jan 13 11 @Michigan St. L 60 - 81 20% -5  27% 12 - 5 3 - 3 C +1 C+ +2 A+ C+ F C- -2 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 26 Iowa L 57 - 74 54% -9  0% 12 - 6 3 - 4 C- -4 C- -1 B+ F A+ D- -7 D+ A C-
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 72 - 86 7% -14  0% 12 - 7 3 - 5 A- +16 A +12 A+ F+ A B +4 B- B- B+
 Fri, Jan 23 109 @Rutgers W 82 - 59 75% +13  98% 13 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +30 A+ +25 A+ C- A+ A +9 A B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 8 Purdue W 72 - 67 32% +5  77% 14 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +23 A +12 A B+ A A+ +12 A- A- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @UCLA W 98 - 97 2OT 40% -0  35% 15 - 7 6 - 5 A- +17 B+ +9 C+ B- A+ A- +8 A+ F D
 Tue, Feb 3 53 @USC L 75 - 81 51% -5  8% 15 - 8 6 - 6 B- +7 B- +5 B+ D- A- B- +3 C+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 29 Wisconsin W 78 - 77 OT 57% +6  83% 16 - 8 7 - 6 B+ +13 B+ +8 C+ A+ A B +5 A C+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 91 Oregon W 92 - 74 84% +7  72% 17 - 8 8 - 6 A +21 A+ +23 A+ D A- C -1 B- D+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 5 @Illinois L 51 - 71 13% -9  6% 17 - 9 8 - 7 B- +6 D+ -3 B- C- D- B +4 A+ B- F
 Fri, Feb 20 8 @Purdue L 64 - 93 16% -17  0% 17 - 10 8 - 8 C- -5 B- +4 A+ F C+ F -12 F F D+
 Tue, Feb 24 67 Northwestern W 78 - 70 79%
 Sun, Mar 1 11 Michigan St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 66 Minnesota W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 @Ohio St. L 75 - 79 36%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 10 +14 A- +9 A+ A- B+ B +5 B B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ A+ B A- 39% 16% 51% B+ A C B- C B+ B- B+ B B A C+ B- B+ 35% 28% 37% B+ A- B D+ C+ C- C D+ C
1.21 66% 54% 37% +7 +1 1.19 30% 1.1 .32 14% .33 78% .26 1.02 48% 37% 32% -5 -1 0.90 27% 1.1 .29 16% .30 74% .25
Nov
5		 Alabama A&M A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 57% 4% 40% A+ A+ D A C C F+ A+ B A+ A+ A- C A 34% 36% 30% A- A A+ F A+ D+ C+ A+ A
1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27 0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
9		 Marquette A+ C+ A- A+ A+ 42% 16% 42% B- A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ A A A+ A- A A+ A+ A+ 51% 21% 28% A A+ D- F F A F F F
1.32 58% 44% 46% +9 +1 1.21 29% 1.4 .40 11% .36 83% .30 1.02 46% 10% 23% -17 +1 0.70 37% 1.3 .47 20% .55 88% .48
Nov
12		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ A- F A+ A+ 42% 8% 50% B A+ A- C+ A- A+ A D A- B- C- F A+ F 27% 47% 25% A+ D D A+ B- A+ D- A+ A-
1.43 68% 25% 50% +15 +2 1.37 38% 1.2 .45 10% .42 70% .30 0.99 57% 58% 23% +5 -4 1.04 35% 0.8 .30 21% .32 39% .13
Nov
16		 Incarnate Word D- B+ F+ F F 48% 7% 45% B+ F+ B F C- C A+ D A- B+ A A F C+ 26% 41% 33% A+ B A+ F B D+ A+ F A-
1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33 0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13
Nov
20		 Lindenwood D F C- D F 36% 18% 46% D+ F D A C A+ A- C+ A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% A- A+ F+ B+ C- C+ D F F
1.03 39% 33% 30% -10 0 0.82 28% 1.3 .35 11% .40 72% .29 0.75 19% 25% 13% -29 -1 0.42 37% 0.9 .35 20% .35 80% .28
Nov
25		 Kansas St. B- A+ C- A 42% 0% 58% A+ A+ B- F+ D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ B- F C+ 34% 30% 36% A+ B A A+ A+ A+ C F D
1.13 75% 32% +5 +3 1.19 35% 1.0 .35 22% .49 76% .37 0.91 53% 33% 44% +3 -2 1.04 25% 0.5 .13 25% .26 87% .23
Nov
29		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ A A A+ 45% 7% 48% B A+ C+ F D A D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 30% 42% 28% A+ A+ A- C- B D D+ F F
1.41 76% 50% 41% +14 +2 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 10% .30 84% .25 0.79 40% 24% 21% -17 -3 0.62 21% 1.0 .21 15% .35 81% .28
Dec
3		 Minnesota C- D D D D 39% 12% 49% A C- F A+ C- A+ A F B- B- C+ A- C B+ 38% 18% 45% B- B D+ F F A+ F C- F
0.97 53% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 11% .34 60% .20 1.10 60% 29% 33% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.4 .47 24% .54 70% .38
Dec
6		 Louisville B C- F D C- 35% 9% 56% A+ C+ B- A+ A+ C B- A B+ B B- A+ F C- 35% 6% 58% C+ C A+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.05 53% 20% 30% -7 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 18% .31 79% .25 1.17 59% 0% 46% +9 +2 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 18% .46 86% .39
Dec
9		 Penn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 4% 53% A A+ D A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ B- A B C- A A- 37% 33% 31% A+ A B+ F C- A D A- C-
1.54 84% 100% 53% +29 +3 1.65 24% 2.3 .53 14% .24 80% .19 0.98 56% 44% 27% -2 -2 0.94 25% 1.5 .38 19% .37 68% .25
Dec
13		 Kentucky D A B+ F F+ 23% 18% 59% C+ D- B- D+ C F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% C+ A+ B D C+ F F A- F
0.90 67% 43% 17% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .21 27% .59 90% .53 1.08 48% 25% 21% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.3 .42 6% .60 66% .40
Dec
20		 Chicago St. D A+ F B+ B+ 15% 4% 81% D+ B C+ F F+ C C- F F+ A B- D+ A+ B- 34% 37% 29% C+ B- B- A+ A D- A+ F A+
1.14 100% 0% 39% +11 0 1.26 37% 0.8 .29 19% .32 61% .20 0.84 50% 41% 24% -6 -2 0.85 26% 0.5 .14 13% .10 100% .10
Dec
22		 Siena B- B- D B+ B 36% 13% 51% B B C F F D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% C A+ A- D- C+ F+ F A- F
1.18 63% 33% 39% +5 +1 1.13 32% 0.6 .18 19% .54 87% .47 0.87 39% 36% 18% -16 -1 0.67 24% 1.1 .26 13% .47 68% .32
Jan
4		 Washington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% A A+ A A A A+ A- A+ A+ D- F B- A B 31% 33% 37% B+ B A+ F D F F F F
1.41 42% 71% 50% +10 +1 1.24 34% 1.2 .41 6% .34 80% .27 1.26 73% 38% 28% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.8 .47 6% .42 88% .37
Jan
7		 Maryland A C+ A+ D- C- 52% 2% 46% A+ B- A+ D B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D D- A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ B+ F C D+ A- A A
1.22 58% 100% 30% -1 +3 1.06 40% 0.9 .37 16% .45 85% .38 0.96 63% 45% 10% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.3 .38 16% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 Nebraska A+ B- A B A 23% 19% 58% B+ A B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ D A F F D 29% 10% 61% C+ D+ D+ B+ C D+ B- D+ C+
1.15 64% 44% 36% +4 -1 1.08 31% 1.3 .41 21% .32 82% .26 1.24 53% 80% 42% +10 +1 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
13		 Michigan St. C+ A+ C- C A+ 24% 13% 62% B A+ C- A+ C+ F D+ C+ D+ C- F F D F 38% 16% 47% F+ F F A+ B- A+ F D F
0.93 82% 33% 32% +3 0 1.09 17% 1.0 .17 22% .22 73% .16 1.25 76% 57% 38% +13 +1 1.29 48% 0.8 .41 23% .48 79% .38
Jan
17		 Iowa C- B+ C- D B- 44% 7% 49% A B+ A F F A+ C C+ C D- F C+ F F+ 33% 29% 38% A+ D+ B+ A A C- F F F
0.99 67% 33% 30% +1 +2 1.07 35% 0.3 .12 16% .31 73% .23 1.29 79% 42% 44% +13 -1 1.26 29% 0.8 .24 14% .46 91% .42
Jan
20		 Michigan A A D- B A+ 25% 13% 62% A A+ F D- F+ A A A+ A+ B B A+ F B 48% 2% 50% D B- B- C+ B- B+ F A- F
1.03 62% 29% 34% 0 0 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 14% .30 83% .25 1.23 57% 0% 41% +4 +3 1.16 38% 1.3 .50 19% .58 67% .39
Jan
23		 Rutgers A+ C A+ A+ A+ 24% 10% 65% B- A+ B+ F C- A+ F A+ F+ A A+ C+ A A 33% 37% 29% B A A+ F B+ F A F B
1.39 58% 80% 47% +17 0 1.37 38% 0.7 .28 8% .13 100% .13 1.00 41% 37% 27% -9 -3 0.78 24% 1.3 .32 8% .26 86% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Purdue A A- A+ B- A 27% 7% 66% A+ A C- A+ B+ A A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D A 38% 23% 38% C- A- A C- A- A- C A+ A
1.17 67% 67% 34% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .33 13% .35 74% .26 1.09 50% 55% 39% +4 0 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .29 53% .16
Jan
31		 UCLA B+ B- F+ C- C+ 33% 16% 51% B- C+ F A+ B- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ C+ B- A+ 33% 38% 29% A- A+ A- F F D F F F
1.11 62% 30% 31% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.6 .31 12% .49 82% .40 1.09 38% 38% 33% -7 -3 0.83 27% 1.8 .50 11% .43 88% .38
Feb
3		 USC B- C- A+ C- B 37% 7% 56% A- B+ D- D- D- A- D+ A- C B- B+ D- F+ C- 29% 38% 33% A+ C+ D F F A- F F F
1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21 1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43
Feb
7		 Wisconsin B+ B A+ F C- 50% 17% 33% A C+ A- A+ A+ A C- A+ B B A+ F D+ A 35% 16% 49% B A D A- C+ D A+ F A
1.14 59% 67% 17% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.13 37% 56% 37% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 10% .20 92% .18
Feb
9		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 23% 51% C A+ D- D+ D A- A+ B- A+ C C- B C- C 31% 35% 35% A+ B- A+ F D+ F F A- D-
1.39 83% 82% 42% +23 -1 1.45 23% 0.8 .18 14% .47 78% .37 1.12 60% 35% 35% 0 -2 0.98 25% 1.8 .44 9% .41 68% .28
Feb
15		 Illinois D+ A- A F B- 24% 29% 47% C+ B- F A+ C- D- D+ A+ C B D+ B- A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% B- A+ C B B- F A+ F+ A+
0.90 64% 46% 24% -3 -2 0.91 15% 1.3 .19 16% .13 83% .11 1.25 67% 38% 26% -3 0 0.96 42% 1.1 .47 4% .13 86% .11
Feb
20		 Purdue B- A+ C- B+ A+ 33% 24% 42% B- A+ F F F C+ A F+ B F F F F F 31% 33% 35% A F A F F D+ F A- F
1.01 87% 36% 37% +11 -1 1.22 4% 0.0 .00 17% .29 60% .17 1.46 80% 56% 53% +23 -2 1.44 30% 2.2 .65 11% .44 68% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 6.2 5.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 14.8 1.5 18.5 8th
9th 0.3 13.9 10.3 0.1 24.7 9th
10th 0.2 9.1 21.3 1.8 32.5 10th
11th 1.2 6.0 1.5 8.7 11th
12th 0.8 0.3 1.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.4 15.7 38.9 33.3 9.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 9.6% 93.3% 0.8% 92.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.6 93.2%
11-9 33.3% 78.8% 0.4% 78.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.0 6.8 8.7 5.1 0.0 7.1 78.7%
10-10 38.9% 55.7% 0.3% 55.5% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 6.5 10.8 0.2 17.2 55.6%
9-11 15.7% 25.7% 0.1% 25.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.0 0.2 11.7 25.6%
8-12 2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 6.4%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.1% 0.3% 60.8% 9.6 38.9 61.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 8.3 37.5 33.3 20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 99.1% 6.2 25.5 38.2 30.0 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 98.5% 6.9 8.1 26.2 35.4 22.1 6.3 0.4
Lose Out 1.0% 0.4% 11.0 0.4