Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#39
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#46
Pace73.4#66
Improvement-0.9#240

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#37
First Shot+4.6#61
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#74
Layup/Dunks+6.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement-0.4#217

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#46
First Shot+3.0#90
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#44
Layups/Dunks-0.6#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement-0.5#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 10.0% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 22.3% 24.1% 11.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.8% 62.8% 42.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.2% 61.2% 41.3%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.0
.500 or above 85.9% 88.5% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.4% 59.3% 32.6%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.3% 7.3%
First Four5.8% 5.7% 6.7%
First Round56.8% 59.9% 38.8%
Second Round34.2% 36.4% 21.1%
Sweet Sixteen13.3% 14.3% 7.4%
Elite Eight5.3% 5.7% 2.9%
Final Four2.0% 2.1% 1.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 11
Quad 24 - 210 - 13
Quad 34 - 014 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 96%     1 - 0 +9.9 +1.9 +7.4
  Nov 10, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +23.3 +10.8 +11.5
  Nov 16, 2024 69   South Carolina W 87-71 73%     3 - 0 +21.4 +15.6 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 91%     4 - 0 +8.1 -2.2 +10.6
  Nov 27, 2024 43   Louisville L 61-89 53%     4 - 1 -17.0 -7.8 -8.3
  Nov 28, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 73-89 19%     4 - 2 +5.2 +3.5 +2.6
  Nov 29, 2024 79   Providence W 89-73 68%     5 - 2 +23.1 +25.1 -1.1
  Dec 03, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 89%     6 - 2 +24.3 +13.0 +8.9
  Dec 06, 2024 198   Miami (OH) W 76-57 93%     7 - 2 +14.3 +5.2 +9.9
  Dec 09, 2024 112   Minnesota W 73-62 86%    
  Dec 13, 2024 44   @ Nebraska L 75-77 42%    
  Dec 21, 2024 200   Chattanooga W 85-68 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 179   Winthrop W 86-70 93%    
  Jan 02, 2025 58   Rutgers W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 106   USC W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 81-82 45%    
  Jan 14, 2025 14   Illinois L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 17, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 22, 2025 66   @ Northwestern L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2025 19   Maryland W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 31, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 16   Michigan L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 11, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 14, 2025 18   UCLA W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 21   Purdue W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 26, 2025 31   Penn St. W 80-78 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ Washington W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 72-77 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 77-75 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.9 1.0 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 1.6 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.3 3.4 3.3 0.3 7.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.2 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.3 0.2 7.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.0 8.5 11.2 12.2 13.1 12.1 10.5 8.0 5.5 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 84.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 68.2% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-4 1.8% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.3% 99.9% 14.9% 85.1% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.5% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.0% 99.5% 8.6% 90.9% 5.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 10.5% 98.3% 5.6% 92.7% 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.2%
11-9 12.1% 92.7% 2.8% 89.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 92.5%
10-10 13.1% 81.1% 1.6% 79.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.1 2.5 80.8%
9-11 12.2% 48.8% 1.0% 47.8% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 0.3 6.3 48.3%
8-12 11.2% 16.5% 0.5% 16.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.4 9.4 16.1%
7-13 8.5% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 1.4%
6-14 6.0% 6.0
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 59.8% 3.8% 56.0% 7.3 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.3 6.2 7.0 8.4 8.9 7.6 6.3 5.6 0.8 40.2 58.2%