Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#23
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#60
Pace70.6#154
Improvement-1.3#275

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#31
First Shot+9.6#8
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#274
Layup/Dunks+3.0#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#17
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement-1.0#265

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#25
First Shot+6.6#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#161
Layups/Dunks+7.9#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#47
Freethrows-2.4#319
Improvement-0.2#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 3.1% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 17.6% 7.9%
Top 6 Seed 31.4% 42.6% 24.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.0% 85.5% 70.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.4% 85.0% 69.3%
Average Seed 7.0 6.5 7.4
.500 or above 97.0% 99.1% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 77.3% 69.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.9% 4.5% 6.9%
First Round73.6% 83.5% 67.2%
Second Round50.0% 59.4% 43.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.5% 26.4% 16.7%
Elite Eight8.3% 10.7% 6.8%
Final Four3.2% 4.2% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 292 Alabama A&M W 98-51 98%     1 - 0 +36.8 +21.4 +15.2
  Sun, Nov 9 88 Marquette W 100-77 81%     2 - 0 +29.0 +23.5 +3.7
  Wed, Nov 12 223 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 97%     3 - 0 +24.4 +23.2 +0.9
  Sun, Nov 16 183 Incarnate Word W 69-61 96%     4 - 0 +3.3 -3.0 +7.0
  Thu, Nov 20 235 Lindenwood W 73-53 97%     5 - 0 +12.8 -2.8 +15.3
  Tue, Nov 25 79 Kansas St. W 86-69 84%     6 - 0 +21.4 +7.6 +12.4
  Sat, Nov 29 224 Bethune-Cookman W 100-56 97%     7 - 0 +37.3 +22.1 +14.5
  Wed, Dec 3 102 @Minnesota L 64-73 77%     7 - 1 0 - 1 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Louisville L 78-87 38%     7 - 2 +9.3 +7.5 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 9 111 Penn St. W 113-72 91%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +41.7 +32.6 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 13 24 @Kentucky L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Dec 20 349 Chicago St. W 92-61 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 22 156 Siena W 80-62 96%    
  Sun, Jan 4 51 Washington W 80-72 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 92 @Maryland W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 30 Nebraska W 77-73 65%    
  Tue, Jan 13 13 @Michigan St. L 68-74 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 Iowa W 73-70 61%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 71-86 9%    
  Fri, Jan 23 126 @Rutgers W 78-68 81%    
  Tue, Jan 27 6 Purdue L 73-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 31 @UCLA L 71-73 44%    
  Tue, Feb 3 36 @USC L 79-80 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 41 Wisconsin W 82-75 72%    
  Mon, Feb 9 83 Oregon W 81-70 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 11 @Illinois L 75-82 28%    
  Fri, Feb 20 6 @Purdue L 70-79 22%    
  Tue, Feb 24 61 Northwestern W 80-71 80%    
  Sun, Mar 1 13 Michigan St. L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 102 Minnesota W 77-63 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 29 @Ohio St. L 77-79 43%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.9 2.5 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.5 3.9 0.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.1 1.0 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 5.5 1.8 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.3 3.0 0.3 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.8 11.7 14.9 15.8 15.0 11.9 8.0 4.5 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 70.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 49.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 13.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.5% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.9% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 2.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.5% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 3.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.0% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 99.5% 4.0% 95.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 15.0% 98.1% 2.3% 95.7% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 98.0%
11-9 15.8% 92.8% 1.4% 91.4% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.1 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 92.7%
10-10 14.9% 80.6% 0.9% 79.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.0 2.9 80.5%
9-11 11.7% 50.6% 0.5% 50.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 50.4%
8-12 7.8% 20.8% 0.5% 20.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 6.2 20.4%
7-13 4.3% 4.0% 0.2% 3.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 3.8%
6-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.2 0.2%
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.0% 2.7% 73.4% 7.0 0.5 1.3 3.6 6.3 9.1 10.6 11.9 11.1 9.0 7.3 5.1 0.3 0.0 24.0 75.4%