SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.1 #268
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #316
Pace 67.4 #239
Improvement +2.2 #73

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #317 F C+ D- C- D
Defense #193 D+ F C- B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #307 1.20 #127 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #93 0.69 #245 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 42% #171 0.78 #360 -4.7 #316
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #329 -5.9 #330
Freethrows 18.5 #122 72% #196 13.3 #139
Second Chance 27.0% #280 0.90 #323 0.24 #319
Turnovers 17.7% #244
Total Offense -5.4 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.23 #268 +1.2 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.77 #207 -1.6 #295
Three Pointers 42% #165 1.09 #283 -2.0 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #258 -2.4 #257
Freethrows 21.7 #341 76% #306 16.4 #350
Second Chance 30.2% #160 1.14 #293 0.34 #234
Turnovers 19.7% #42
Total Defense -0.6 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #293 -1.5% #58
Shot Type Make % Effect -9.9% #324 6.3% #288
Possession Length 18.3 #276 17.1 #165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #288 0.22 #310
Improvement +2.0 #57 +0.1 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 1.5% 2.6% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 16.4% 4.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 13.4% 31.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 70 @Mississippi L 58-88 6%     -12.4   0 - 1 -18.8 -5.4 -14.9
  Fri, Nov 7 315 @Louisiana L 52-58 49%     -9.4   0 - 2 -11.8 -9.7 -3.3
  Mon, Nov 10 109 @Georgia Tech L 60-70 11%     -0.2   0 - 3 -3.0 -11.9 +9.8
  Sat, Nov 15 64 @Mississippi St. L 68-75 6%     -4.9   0 - 4 +4.6 -3.0 +7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 124 @UNC Wilmington L 57-70 14%     1.4   0 - 5 -7.5 -6.0 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 28 360 Gardner-Webb W 76-68 81%     -1.7   1 - 5 -7.5 -6.4 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 29 208 Navy W 69-65 37%     7.2   2 - 5 +1.2 +1.7 -0.1
  Sun, Dec 7 295 Northwestern St. L 68-76 66%     3.1   2 - 6 0 - 1 -18.4 -7.3 -11.6
  Sat, Dec 13 281 @Houston Christian W 74-71 OT 41%     3.0   3 - 6 1 - 1 -0.7 -2.0 +1.3
  Mon, Dec 15 324 East Texas A&M L 69-70 75%     0.6   3 - 7 1 - 2 -14.0 -1.7 -12.4
  Fri, Dec 19 38 @LSU L 65-78 3%     -12.0   3 - 8 +3.1 +8.2 -6.9
  Tue, Dec 30 150 @Incarnate Word L 70-79 19%     -4.2   3 - 9 1 - 3 -5.6 -5.3 +0.0
  Sat, Jan 3 118 Stephen F. Austin L 63-73 27%     -7.6   3 - 10 1 - 4 -9.7 -4.9 -5.3
  Mon, Jan 5 225 Lamar W 66-65 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 80 @McNeese St. L 62-78 6%    
  Mon, Jan 12 235 New Orleans W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 202 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-70 27%    
  Mon, Jan 19 233 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 201 Nicholls St. L 70-71 48%    
  Mon, Jan 26 80 McNeese St. L 65-75 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 118 @Stephen F. Austin L 62-74 13%    
  Mon, Feb 2 225 @Lamar L 63-68 31%    
  Sat, Feb 7 281 Houston Christian W 70-66 63%    
  Mon, Feb 9 150 Incarnate Word L 69-72 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 295 @Northwestern St. L 68-70 45%    
  Mon, Feb 16 324 @East Texas A&M W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 233 UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-70 54%    
  Mon, Feb 23 202 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 201 @Nicholls St. L 67-73 28%    
  Mon, Mar 2 235 @New Orleans L 71-76 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 7 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.8 1.2 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 5.4 6.3 2.0 0.1 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 7.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 17.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.0 6.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 18.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.2 3.5 1.3 0.1 12.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.0 6.7 11.1 14.2 16.3 15.1 12.5 9.1 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0%
16-6 0.0%
15-7 4.8% 0.0    0.0
14-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-8 0.5% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-9 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-10 3.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.0
11-11 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.8
10-12 9.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.0
9-13 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
8-14 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.1
7-15 16.3% 16.3
6-16 14.2% 14.2
5-17 11.1% 11.1
4-18 6.7% 6.7
3-19 3.0% 3.0
2-20 1.1% 1.1
1-21 0.2% 0.2
0-22
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%