Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.8 265
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 240
Pace 70.6 122
Improvement -0.8 209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 235 C- D+ C+ D C+
Defense D+ 275 D- D- A- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 C- 56% 223 -1.7 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 239 D 33% 329 -2.1 280
Three Pointers 45% 86 C- 33% 220 +1.7 119
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 158 D+ -2.2 262
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance D 25.0% 325 C 1.05 151 D+ 0.26 291
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 129
Freethrows C- 0.29 237 F+ 65% 356 D 0.19 305
Total Offense C- -2.3 235

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 299 C 11.1% 184
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 346 C 5.2% 194
Three Pointers D+ 81% 263 C 0.9% 178
Total D+ 51% 278 C+ 5.4% 160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 F+ 66% 348 +5.4 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 266 C- 40% 243 -0.8 128
Three Pointers 40% 208 D 37% 297 +1.2 243
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 275 D- +5.0 347
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 345
Second Chance D- 35.6% 342 C- 1.08 259 D- 0.38 332
Turnovers A- 20.9% 15
Freethrows D 0.35 312 F 78% 361 D- 0.27 341
Total Defense D+ -3.4 275

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 316 D+ 8.6% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 200 D+ 3.2% 282
Three Pointers C- 85% 201 C+ 1.2% 113
Total D+ 60% 283 D+ 4.6% 257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 162 16.9 111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 87 0.20 270
Improvement +1.2 #124 -1.9 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 289 263 234
Conference Record 10 - 12 11 - 11 13 - 9
Conference Finish 6 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 80% 100% 78%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 25 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 2% -15  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -16 F F+ B- A +9 C- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 320 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 56% -5  18% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -18 F F B+ B- +2 B- F A
 Wed, Nov 12 161 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 21% -3  8% 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 C- A F C+ +0 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 124 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 14% -11  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 D- A F+ F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 62 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 6% -12  0% 0 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C- B D+ C+ +1 D- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 163 @Tulane L 72 - 82 21% -7  9% 0 - 6 D+ -7 C- -1 A F B D- -7 F B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 60 @Creighton L 76 - 96 6% -15  3% 0 - 7 D+ -8 B +6 A F A+ F -15 F F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 275 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 65% +3  76% 1 - 7 1 - 0 C- -3 D+ -3 C F A- C+ +1 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 294 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 68% +11  97% 2 - 7 2 - 0 C+ +4 C- -1 D+ D+ A+ B+ +6 D C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 127 @Pacific L 82 - 95 15% -7  0% 2 - 8 D+ -8 B+ +8 A+ F F F -15 F F A
 Mon, Dec 29 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 27% +3  63% 3 - 8 3 - 0 B- +6 A +12 B+ A+ B- D -6 F F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 20% +2  65% 4 - 8 4 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 C- B F A- +7 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 304 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 70% +12  99% 5 - 8 5 - 0 B +11 C- -2 C- C- D+ A+ +11 B- D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 280 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 65% +2  54% 6 - 8 6 - 0 D+ -8 D -5 C+ F B+ C- -2 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 209 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 28% +7  81% 7 - 8 7 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +24 A+ A- A F+ -9 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 83 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 8% -15  8% 7 - 9 7 - 1 F+ -16 D- -7 B- F D+ D- -7 F D B-
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Lamar L 80 - 90 50% -5  15% 7 - 10 7 - 2 F+ -16 B- +4 C B D F -20 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 98 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 22% -16  0% 7 - 11 7 - 3 F+ -15 D- -7 F C+ B- F+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 43% -2  45% 7 - 12 7 - 4 D -10 F -13 F F C B- +3 D+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 209 New Orleans L 62 - 80 50% -9  8% 7 - 13 7 - 5 F -24 F -21 F F F+ C- -2 C F A
 Sat, Jan 31 304 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 68 48% +6  92% 8 - 13 8 - 5 C -1 C- -2 D+ C B- C+ +1 C- B+ B
 Mon, Feb 2 280 @Northwestern St. W 61 - 58 43% +9  89% 9 - 13 9 - 5 C -1 F+ -10 F C- D+ A +9 A+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 7 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76 - 83 48% -2  22% 9 - 14 9 - 6 D- -12 B- +4 C B A+ F -16 F F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 150 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 92 38% -14  1% 9 - 15 9 - 7 F -23 D+ -3 C- D+ A F -20 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 275 @Incarnate Word W 91 - 83 42% +9  97% 10 - 15 10 - 7 C+ +4 A+ +18 A+ F A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Mon, Feb 16 294 @Houston Christian L 68 - 72 45% -5  16% 10 - 16 10 - 8 D -9 D- -7 F C+ B+ C -1 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 80 9%
 Mon, Feb 23 207 @Lamar L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 281 SE Louisiana W 72 - 68 65%
 Mon, Mar 2 83 McNeese St. L 70 - 80 18%
Totals 11 - 19 11 - 11 -6 C- -2 F D+ C+ D+ -3 C- F+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D C- D+ 37% 33% 45% C+ C- D C D+ C+ C- F+ D D+ F+ C- D D- 42% 18% 40% D+ D- D- C- D- A- D F D-
1.05 56% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 25% 1.0 .26 16% .29 65% .19 1.14 66% 40% 37% +5 +1 1.14 36% 1.1 .38 21% .35 78% .22
Nov
4		 Kentucky F A+ F F F 20% 31% 49% D- F F C F+ B- A D B+ A F A+ A C 45% 12% 43% F+ C- C- A+ A+ A- D A+ B+
0.73 70% 20% 17% -16 -3 0.65 12% 0.8 .10 16% .37 68% .25 1.10 83% 17% 27% +4 +2 1.14 38% 0.5 .20 19% .39 55% .21
Nov
7		 Eastern Illinois F C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% F+ F C- F F B+ A+ F B B- B+ A- A B 40% 26% 35% D B- F+ F+ F A F C- F
0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29 0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41
Nov
12		 Valparaiso D+ D F B- C 25% 18% 57% D+ C- D- A+ A F D F F C+ B+ B- F D- 27% 40% 33% A D+ C- A+ B+ C- F+ D F
1.00 55% 25% 36% -2 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15 1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31
Nov
15		 Murray St. D+ F C- D F+ 47% 14% 39% A- D- B+ B+ A F+ F A+ D F C- D+ F F 36% 16% 48% C F F F F A+ F F F
1.04 44% 38% 32% -8 +1 0.89 40% 1.2 .47 20% .21 85% .18 1.31 63% 43% 57% +19 0 1.41 52% 1.3 .70 26% .54 83% .45
Nov
22		 Oklahoma St. C- A+ F F C 22% 24% 54% F C- C A- B D+ C- F+ D+ C+ F A+ F F+ 52% 16% 32% C+ D- A+ A A+ A- D- F F
0.99 92% 29% 25% -2 -2 0.95 29% 1.3 .36 20% .26 65% .17 1.17 76% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.21 19% 0.8 .15 18% .41 93% .38
Nov
28		 Tulane C- F+ A+ A+ A 40% 19% 42% C+ A F F F B A+ F D D- F D- F+ F 42% 15% 44% D F D+ A+ B- B F+ A C-
1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19 1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30
Dec
2		 Creighton B A+ F A+ A 45% 25% 30% B- A F F F A+ B C B F F F F F 27% 13% 60% C F B- F F+ B+ A+ F A
1.11 72% 0% 53% +5 0 1.13 17% 0.3 .06 9% .26 69% .18 1.40 80% 57% 48% +21 0 1.45 26% 1.5 .39 18% .12 100% .12
Dec
6		 Incarnate Word D+ F F A+ C- 49% 10% 41% B C F B- F A- A+ C- A+ C+ C+ A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% B- A+ F F F B- F D F
1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47 1.03 53% 29% 8% -15 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41
Dec
17		 Houston Christian C- B A- F+ D+ 39% 19% 42% D+ D+ F+ B+ D+ A+ F C F B+ D+ D- A+ C- 62% 17% 21% F D A+ F C- A+ F B+ F
1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13 0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31
Dec
21		 Pacific B+ A+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% A+ A+ C- F F F A F C- F F F F F 43% 35% 23% A F C- F F A F D F
1.14 77% 25% 45% +16 +2 1.38 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 52% .21 1.32 82% 64% 44% +23 -2 1.45 35% 1.6 .55 25% .67 81% .54
Dec
29		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A F+ A+ A+ B 50% 7% 43% A B+ C- A+ A+ B- F A+ C- D D D- F F 45% 16% 39% D F D+ F+ F+ A+ A F B-
1.20 50% 67% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 1.7 .48 19% .33 88% .29 1.12 60% 43% 47% +9 +1 1.23 32% 1.1 .36 24% .27 77% .21
Dec
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- D+ C D+ D+ 35% 17% 48% C+ C- D+ A+ B F A+ C A+ A- A C- D B 41% 16% 43% C- B- F C+ D- A+ D- D+ D-
1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32 0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22
Jan
3		 East Texas A&M C- C- F B- D+ 38% 8% 55% B- C- A- F C- D+ B+ F+ C+ A+ F B- A+ B+ 47% 6% 47% F B- F B D+ A+ C+ B- B-
1.08 55% 0% 38% -1 +2 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 19% .37 64% .23 0.79 73% 33% 14% -8 +2 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 33% .22 64% .14
Jan
5		 Northwestern St. D A C- F C- 51% 10% 39% A- C+ F F F B+ A+ F C+ C- D- F A+ C 43% 14% 43% F D+ D- F F C D- B- D
1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25 1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26
Jan
10		 New Orleans A+ B C- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B- A+ B B+ A- A F C+ F F+ D C+ F F 40% 20% 40% D F F A+ F A F F F
1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16 1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44
Jan
12		 McNeese St. D- D F B+ C+ 36% 4% 60% A- B- F+ F F D+ F F F D- D- B- F F 42% 20% 38% C F A F D B- D- F F
0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14 1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30
Jan
17		 Lamar B- C+ D- B C+ 37% 20% 43% C C C- A+ B D B A+ A F F F F F 32% 36% 32% C+ F F+ F F A+ F+ D F+
1.17 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 28% 1.3 .38 19% .43 79% .34 1.31 67% 53% 67% +24 -2 1.45 40% 1.5 .60 22% .30 75% .22
Jan
19		 Stephen F. Austin D- F B F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A- F+ C+ B- C+ B B- F+ F D F F 35% 20% 46% D- F F A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23 1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30
Jan
24		 SE Louisiana F F B+ F F 33% 14% 53% B- F D- F F C B C B B- D+ D- B+ D 33% 27% 40% C+ D+ F A+ B+ A+ F F F
0.86 38% 43% 23% -15 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .20 20% .42 75% .32 0.95 60% 42% 28% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.5 .19 26% .55 76% .42
Jan
27		 New Orleans F F F+ C F 32% 11% 57% C+ F F B F F+ F F F C- C+ A D- C+ 50% 23% 27% D- C F F+ F A F F+ F
0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14 1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 East Texas A&M C- B+ C+ F C- 36% 28% 36% F D+ F A+ C B- A+ C- A C+ B- B- D+ C- 33% 17% 50% C+ C- F A+ B+ B F F F
1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.7 .33 16% .43 68% .29 0.98 53% 33% 35% -2 0 0.98 35% 0.4 .14 20% .36 75% .27
Feb
2		 Northwestern St. F+ F B D- F 45% 25% 30% C- F C D+ C- D+ C- B C+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% F+ A+ D- F F B+ F F+ F
0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25 0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- A C F C 39% 16% 45% C+ C F+ A+ B A+ F+ F F F F F+ F F 53% 19% 28% D- F B F F+ B- F+ F F
1.12 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.7 .35 15% .35 65% .23 1.23 68% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 25% 1.5 .38 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
9		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ A+ B F C 31% 23% 46% D+ C- F A- D+ A B- F D F F C+ D+ F 50% 7% 43% F F F F F A+ F F F
1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20 1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32
Feb
14		 Incarnate Word A+ A- F A+ A+ 65% 6% 29% A+ A+ F B- F A+ C- D- D F B- F B- C+ 49% 7% 44% F D+ F+ F F F A+ F B-
1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25 1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17
Feb
16		 Houston Christian D- F A+ F F 43% 24% 33% D F F A+ C+ B+ A+ D+ A+ C C C A+ B 39% 35% 27% A B+ B F F F F D F
1.01 43% 50% 19% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.8 .38 15% .42 71% .30 1.07 58% 35% 23% -5 -2 0.88 25% 1.4 .36 10% .43 73% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 2.5 0.4 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 4.3 13.7 3.5 0.0 21.6 4th
5th 1.9 23.6 10.7 0.3 36.4 5th
6th 14.3 18.4 1.6 0.0 34.3 6th
7th 3.3 3.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 19.5 46.3 27.5 6.2 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4
13-9 6.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
12-10 27.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 27.3
11-11 46.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 46.2
10-12 19.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.5
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 11.9%