New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#344
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#294
Pace76.1#32
Improvement+1.1#120

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#337
First Shot-6.0#329
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#205
Layup/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#335
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement+0.8#113

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#342
First Shot-4.1#308
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#296
Layups/Dunks-0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#266
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement+0.2#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.5% 2.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 20.6% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.8% 16.0% 34.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 13
Quad 47 - 118 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 59   @ Kansas St. L 65-89 2%     0 - 1 -11.6 +1.7 -14.4
  Nov 09, 2024 125   Troy L 61-78 15%     0 - 2 -17.9 -16.9 +0.4
  Nov 14, 2024 354   Lindenwood W 82-74 54%     1 - 2 -5.3 +0.9 -6.4
  Nov 15, 2024 336   Stonehill L 54-80 42%     1 - 3 -36.2 -23.5 -12.3
  Nov 17, 2024 275   @ Robert Morris L 62-73 20%     1 - 4 -14.2 -12.5 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2024 220   @ Tulane W 93-87 OT 13%     2 - 4 +5.8 +4.6 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 60-91 1%     2 - 5 -12.6 -1.8 -13.4
  Dec 07, 2024 223   @ Nicholls St. L 68-80 13%    
  Dec 15, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 70-95 1%    
  Dec 19, 2024 34   @ Texas L 60-88 0.4%   
  Dec 22, 2024 47   @ LSU L 65-91 1%    
  Dec 28, 2024 95   @ McNeese St. L 63-84 3%    
  Dec 30, 2024 67   @ Vanderbilt L 68-92 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 166   UT Rio Grande Valley L 77-86 21%    
  Jan 06, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 227   SE Louisiana L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 13, 2025 280   @ Lamar L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 20, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 77-74 63%    
  Jan 27, 2025 314   Incarnate Word L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 67-79 15%    
  Feb 03, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 10, 2025 314   @ Incarnate Word L 75-82 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 66-81 9%    
  Feb 17, 2025 223   Nicholls St. L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 297   Northwestern St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 24, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-89 10%    
  Mar 03, 2025 215   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-84 13%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.3 1.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.7 2.8 0.3 13.5 9th
10th 0.3 2.1 5.9 7.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.4 6.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 21.4 11th
12th 0.7 2.8 5.8 6.8 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 21.8 12th
Total 0.7 2.8 6.5 10.7 13.8 14.8 14.3 12.3 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 26.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
10-10 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
9-11 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
8-12 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 12.3% 12.3
6-14 14.3% 14.3
5-15 14.8% 14.8
4-16 13.8% 13.8
3-17 10.7% 10.7
2-18 6.5% 6.5
1-19 2.8% 2.8
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%