New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 223
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 209
Pace 73.1 65
Improvement -0.7 214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 165 C- B- D B+ C-
Defense D+ 277 C+ D D+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 D+ 55% 267 +22.3 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 52 C 39% 156 +9.9 78
Three Pointers 34% 321 C+ 35% 147 +17.6 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 252 C- -0.8 207
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 215
Second Chance B- 34.4% 73 C 1.04 152 B- 0.36 85
Turnovers D 19.1% 312
Freethrows B+ 0.36 30 B- 75% 89 B+ 0.27 26
Total Offense C -0.1 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 B- 54% 78 +21.3 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 253 F+ 45% 349 +8.1 159
Three Pointers 43% 122 C+ 33% 116 +20.9 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 237 C+ -1.2 127
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 146
Second Chance D- 35.0% 329 C 1.03 186 D 0.36 304
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 293
Freethrows D 0.35 319 D+ 74% 262 D 0.26 319
Total Defense D+ -3.4 277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 148 16.1 22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 246 0.19 233
Improvement -1.7 #288 +1.1 #128

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 2% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 65% 88% 44%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 32 - 44 - 13
Quad 49 - 614 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @TCU W 78 - 74 6% +12  89% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B A+ F A +12 A+ D D+
 Mon, Nov 10 56 @LSU L 58 - 93 7% -17  0% 1 - 1 F -22 F -15 F C A- D -6 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 176 @Tulane W 85 - 63 30% +11  99% 2 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +16 A+ A+ F+ A- +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 290 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 53% -6  12% 2 - 2 F+ -15 C- -2 C- C+ F F -13 D- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 131 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 22% -4  11% 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -2 D+ B- F+ C -2 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 75 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 10% +4  68% 2 - 4 B- +8 C +1 C- B F B+ +6 A F B
 Wed, Nov 26 13 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  6% 2 - 5 D -10 F -16 F C+ F B+ +6 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 92 @Memphis L 70 - 86 13% -16  0% 2 - 6 D+ -8 C+ +2 C+ D- B F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 297 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 75% -4  16% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 C- -1 D+ D A- F -20 D+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 267 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 70% +8  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +3 A+ D F F -11 F+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  0% 3 - 8 F+ -16 D+ -4 D A+ F F -14 F A D-
 Mon, Dec 29 153 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 26% +8  88% 4 - 8 2 - 1 A +19 A +13 C A+ B+ B+ +7 D+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 33% -6  17% 4 - 9 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 D C+ D- F -12 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 51% +5  81% 4 - 10 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F D+ C+ D -6 A F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 309 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 79% +8  99% 5 - 10 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 D+ F A D -6 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 260 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 69% -7  4% 5 - 11 3 - 4 F -22 B +6 C+ A D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 272 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 49% +1  51% 6 - 11 4 - 4 C -0 B +6 D- A+ F+ D -6 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 103 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 31% -1  33% 6 - 12 4 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A- A C- F -11 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 211 Lamar W 89 - 76 59% +4  68% 7 - 12 5 - 5 B- +7 B+ +9 A C- C- C- -2 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 83 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 11% -9  2% 7 - 13 5 - 6 D -9 D- -7 C+ D F C- -2 B+ D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 260 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 46% +9  86% 8 - 13 6 - 6 A- +15 C- -1 F+ A D- A+ +16 A C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 279 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 73% +4  73% 9 - 13 7 - 6 C +1 D+ -2 D- A D+ B- +4 C- A C-
 Mon, Feb 2 309 @East Texas A&M W 94 - 85 59% +11  99% 10 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ F C+ D -7 D+ F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 153 UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 95 47% -16  1% 10 - 14 8 - 7 F -22 D -4 D+ A D+ F -16 D F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84 - 78 OT 56% -1  41% 11 - 14 9 - 7 C +1 D- -7 D+ D F B+ +7 B+ C A
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @Houston Christian L 60 - 61 54% -1  36% 11 - 15 9 - 8 D+ -6 F -11 F C+ B- B +5 B F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 16 267 @Incarnate Word L 78 - 79 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Lamar L 73 - 77 36%
 Mon, Feb 23 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 83 McNeese St. L 74 - 81 25%
 Mon, Mar 2 272 SE Louisiana W 75 - 69 70%
Totals 13 - 18 11 - 11 -4 F +0 B+ C- C- C+ -3 C+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C+ C- 41% 50% 34% C- C- B- C B- D B+ B- B+ D+ B- F+ C+ C+ 39% 18% 43% C- C+ D- C D D+ D D+ D
1.09 55% 39% 35% -1 0 0.99 34% 1.0 .36 19% .36 75% .27 1.14 54% 45% 33% -1 0 1.00 35% 1.0 .36 15% .35 74% .27
Nov
3		 TCU B B- D+ A+ A- 40% 30% 30% D+ B A+ C+ A+ F A A+ A+ A B- A- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% D A+ B F D D+ D- C- D-
1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27 0.98 56% 29% 12% -16 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29
Nov
10		 LSU F F F F F 35% 23% 42% C F D A- C A- D+ B C- D C A+ F B- 46% 11% 44% F+ C+ F A+ B- F F+ C+ D-
0.80 40% 8% 25% -19 -1 0.63 24% 1.1 .26 12% .27 71% .19 1.28 62% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.09 43% 0.9 .38 10% .43 75% .32
Nov
14		 Tulane A+ F A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 55% C- A+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A- F+ F A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- F F A- F
1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39 0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40
Nov
18		 Pepperdine C- F A A D 51% 4% 45% A C- B+ D C+ F A+ C- A+ F C- F D+ D- 40% 24% 36% C D- D+ A- B- F F F F
1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30 1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37
Nov
21		 Fresno St. C- B+ F F D 43% 16% 41% B D+ B- C+ B- F+ A+ F A+ C C- B A+ A- 44% 6% 50% F B B- F F B- F D+ F
0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34 1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35
Nov
24		 Mississippi St. C F C- B C+ 25% 39% 36% F+ C- A D- B F C+ A+ A B+ A+ F A A 30% 22% 48% C+ A D+ F F B F A+ D
1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26 1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24
Nov
26		 Texas Tech F C+ F F F 40% 33% 27% B- F F+ A+ C+ F D+ D- D B+ A A+ C- A+ 38% 25% 37% C A+ F F+ F B F A+ F+
0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15 1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26
Dec
3		 Memphis C+ B F C C 37% 21% 42% C+ C+ B+ F D- B B- C B- F+ C- F F F 38% 19% 43% D+ F F+ A+ A+ C- B+ C+ B
1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26 1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Houston Christian C- D+ F A D+ 44% 12% 44% B- D+ D D+ D A- A- F B- F C+ F+ D+ D+ 46% 19% 35% D D+ F F F F F F F
1.15 59% 17% 41% +3 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23 1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38
Dec
8		 Incarnate Word C+ B A A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% D+ A+ B F D F A+ A A+ F A+ F F+ F 22% 28% 50% A- F+ D F F C+ F C- F
1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41 1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Houston D+ F B+ D C- 20% 45% 35% F D B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 25% 40% 36% A- F B+ A A D- F C+ F
0.84 25% 39% 29% -9 -4 0.75 31% 1.6 .50 31% .49 83% .41 1.46 77% 52% 47% +18 -3 1.30 34% 0.8 .28 9% .50 77% .39
Dec
29		 UT Rio Grande Valley A F+ A+ B- C 44% 19% 37% B C B- A+ A+ B+ C A+ A- B+ D- A+ F D 31% 20% 49% B D+ D- A+ A+ A F A+ C-
1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30 0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19
Dec
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- F+ B- D+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D B D+ C+ D- A+ F+ A- F A+ B- C A- 60% 23% 17% D- B+ F F+ F F+ D- F F
1.00 50% 40% 31% -4 -2 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 23% .55 66% .36 1.21 41% 33% 33% -12 +1 0.81 50% 1.1 .56 13% .42 76% .32
Jan
3		 Northwestern St. D A+ B F D- 23% 33% 44% F F B- F D+ C+ F A+ D- D A+ B+ B- A+ 44% 20% 36% F A F F F D+ F F+ F
1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20 1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
5		 East Texas A&M B- D A+ D- D+ 40% 15% 44% C D+ A+ F F A A+ B A+ D A+ D F C+ 41% 9% 50% F+ C D+ A+ B+ F+ D- F F
1.17 52% 63% 30% -1 +1 1.02 44% 0.4 .20 13% .48 73% .36 1.03 27% 40% 44% -4 +2 0.96 26% 0.5 .14 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
10		 Nicholls St. B C C- A+ B- 40% 20% 40% C- C+ A+ F A D- A+ A+ A+ F D+ D F F 35% 10% 56% D F F D- F F A- F B-
1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44 1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16
Jan
12		 SE Louisiana B B F D D- 38% 27% 35% C- D- A- A+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ D B+ B A+ A- 27% 36% 38% A A- F D+ F F F C+ F
1.14 64% 20% 31% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.5 .60 23% .73 79% .58 1.09 50% 31% 24% -10 -3 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 13% .64 67% .43
Jan
17		 Stephen F. Austin B+ C A+ C+ A+ 30% 37% 33% F A- B A A C- F F F F C- F F F 38% 28% 34% C- F+ F+ A+ A- F F D F
1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11 1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33
Jan
19		 Lamar B+ A A+ F A 61% 27% 12% B A A+ F C- C- A+ B A+ C- A- F D+ D+ 30% 30% 41% D+ D+ F A+ B+ C- D+ D+ D+
1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51 1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20
Jan
24		 McNeese St. D- D+ B- C C- 49% 13% 38% A- C+ F+ B+ D F A+ D+ A+ C- C+ A+ A+ A+ 63% 8% 29% F B+ F A D+ C+ F F F
0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39 1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Nicholls St. C- D- F B F 50% 23% 27% C F+ B+ A- A D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C A+ 32% 11% 57% C- A B+ D C+ B+ B- A+ B+
1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38 0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14
Jan
31		 Northwestern St. D+ F B- C+ D- 43% 25% 32% D+ D- B A A D+ A+ C+ A+ B- B F A- C 40% 26% 34% D+ C- C+ A+ A C- A+ D A+
1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37 0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12
Feb
2		 East Texas A&M B+ B- C- A+ A+ 51% 27% 22% D A+ D+ F F C+ A+ A A+ D B+ F B- D+ 39% 16% 45% C- D+ A- F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 62% 36% 73% +14 0 1.29 29% 0.1 .03 17% .55 78% .43 1.09 50% 63% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.7 .29 14% .55 76% .42
Feb
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley D A- D+ F D+ 40% 31% 29% D D+ F+ A+ A D+ A+ B A+ F C B- F+ D 35% 13% 52% D+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36 1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40
Feb
9		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D- D+ C- F D 56% 24% 20% C+ D+ D- C D F A+ B- A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A- 47% 19% 34% D+ B+ C- C+ C A F D F
0.96 56% 36% 22% -5 +1 0.93 23% 1.0 .23 25% .86 75% .65 0.90 64% 10% 17% -11 +1 0.81 30% 0.9 .28 22% .54 70% .38
Feb
14		 Houston Christian F D- C- F F 54% 29% 17% D F B- D+ C+ B- B- F D+ B C- F A+ B- 33% 26% 41% B+ B C+ F F+ B- C D+ C-
0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17 0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.6 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 8.2 2.7 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 2.1 16.0 9.8 0.7 28.7 5th
6th 1.8 18.4 17.4 2.0 0.0 39.7 6th
7th 4.9 7.2 0.6 12.7 7th
8th 0.6 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.4 27.8 36.4 21.6 6.2 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-9 6.2% 3.5% 3.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.0
12-10 21.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 21.2
11-11 36.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 36.0
10-12 27.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.6
9-13 7.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.4
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.4 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 4.6%