TCU
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#16
Pace73.2#57
Improvement+2.1#7

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#32
First Shot+4.7#52
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#66
Layup/Dunks+9.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#348
Freethrows+2.1#45
Improvement+1.6#11

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#16
First Shot+7.1#17
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#79
Layups/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#54
Freethrows+2.2#42
Improvement+0.5#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.0% 6.4% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 17.6% 25.6% 9.9%
Top 4 Seed 67.7% 79.6% 56.2%
Top 6 Seed 92.0% 97.1% 87.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.9% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.8% 98.3%
Average Seed 3.9 3.4 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 97.8% 87.9%
Conference Champion 21.1% 30.3% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
First Round99.0% 99.8% 98.2%
Second Round81.7% 85.7% 77.9%
Sweet Sixteen47.3% 51.7% 43.2%
Elite Eight22.4% 25.4% 19.5%
Final Four10.4% 12.0% 8.8%
Championship Game4.8% 5.6% 4.0%
National Champion2.1% 2.4% 1.8%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 310 - 8
Quad 24 - 014 - 8
Quad 31 - 014 - 8
Quad 48 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-72 99%     1 - 0 -11.8 -7.3 -4.6
  Nov 11, 2022 357   Lamar W 77-66 99%     2 - 0 -7.2 -7.5 -0.1
  Nov 14, 2022 225   Northwestern St. L 63-64 96%     2 - 1 -6.7 -11.4 +4.6
  Nov 17, 2022 265   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     3 - 1 +26.8 +9.9 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2022 224   California W 59-48 94%     4 - 1 +8.0 -5.4 +15.1
  Nov 26, 2022 30   Iowa W 79-66 58%     5 - 1 +25.5 +6.2 +19.0
  Nov 30, 2022 25   Providence W 75-62 67%     6 - 1 +23.2 +7.5 +16.0
  Dec 06, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 78-51 99%     7 - 1 +14.8 -5.5 +18.3
  Dec 10, 2022 167   SMU W 83-75 91%     8 - 1 +8.1 +4.0 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-43 99.6%    9 - 1 +25.1 +11.9 +15.4
  Dec 21, 2022 51   Utah W 75-71 68%     10 - 1 +13.9 +7.4 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 103-57 99%     11 - 1 +32.3 +12.9 +14.9
  Dec 31, 2022 53   Texas Tech W 67-61 76%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +13.1 -5.0 +17.8
  Jan 04, 2023 14   @ Baylor W 88-87 39%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +18.5 +16.1 +2.3
  Jan 07, 2023 22   Iowa St. L 67-69 64%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +9.0 +4.9 +4.0
  Jan 11, 2023 10   @ Texas L 75-79 35%     13 - 3 2 - 2 +14.5 +8.1 +6.5
  Jan 14, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 82-68 67%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +24.1 +8.4 +14.6
  Jan 18, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 65-74 44%     14 - 4 3 - 3 +7.3 +0.8 +6.3
  Jan 21, 2023 7   @ Kansas W 83-60 32%     15 - 4 4 - 3 +42.4 +18.9 +23.2
  Jan 24, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 79-52 75%     16 - 4 5 - 3 +34.8 +10.8 +24.3
  Jan 28, 2023 55   @ Mississippi St. L 74-81 OT 59%     16 - 5 +5.3 +8.8 -3.3
  Jan 31, 2023 23   West Virginia W 76-72 65%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +14.8 +9.7 +5.2
  Feb 04, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 07, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 14   Baylor W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 15, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. W 71-66 70%    
  Feb 20, 2023 7   Kansas W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 10   Texas W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 04, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.4 9.0 4.2 0.8 21.1 1st
2nd 0.4 6.5 10.6 2.6 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 10.9 2.8 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 8.9 4.7 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 5.1 6.3 0.5 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 5.3 1.2 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.5 5.6 12.4 20.3 23.5 19.9 11.7 4.2 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-4 97.8% 4.2    3.5 0.7 0.0
13-5 77.0% 9.0    4.5 3.8 0.7 0.0
12-6 31.9% 6.4    0.9 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.1
11-7 3.5% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 9.7 7.2 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.8% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 1.7 1.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.7% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.3 1.5 5.7 4.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 19.9% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.9 0.5 4.4 11.3 3.5 0.2 100.0%
11-7 23.5% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.6 0.0 0.8 9.9 9.6 2.9 0.2 100.0%
10-8 20.3% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 7.1 8.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 12.4% 99.6% 9.5% 90.1% 5.6 0.1 1.0 4.6 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 5.6% 96.5% 7.8% 88.7% 7.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.2%
7-11 1.5% 70.2% 6.4% 63.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 68.2%
6-12 0.1% 7.1% 4.3% 2.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 12.1% 87.1% 3.9 4.0 13.6 28.6 21.5 16.1 8.3 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.4 61.5 36.8 1.8
Lose Out 0.1% 7.1% 11.4 1.4 1.4 4.3