TCU
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#91
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#95
Pace66.3#254
Improvement-0.4#216

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#105
First Shot-0.8#207
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#37
Layup/Dunks+4.5#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#262
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#76
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#94
Layups/Dunks+1.8#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#309
Freethrows+1.8#86
Improvement-0.2#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.4% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 17.1% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.4% 16.4% 7.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.2
.500 or above 37.0% 50.1% 27.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 12.5% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 42.5% 36.6% 47.0%
First Four2.3% 3.1% 1.7%
First Round10.6% 15.4% 6.9%
Second Round4.5% 6.8% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.8% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Neutral) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 46 - 16
Quad 32 - 18 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 77-61 95%     1 - 0 +2.3 -9.9 +10.4
  Nov 15, 2021 281   Southern Miss W 83-51 91%     2 - 0 +22.5 +5.0 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 63-50 87%     3 - 0 +6.6 -9.1 +16.4
  Nov 22, 2021 83   Santa Clara L 66-85 48%     3 - 1 -12.7 -5.1 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2021 229   Pepperdine W 73-64 80%     4 - 1 +5.7 +4.0 +2.3
  Nov 29, 2021 257   Austin Peay W 68-51 90%     5 - 1 +9.0 +0.9 +10.6
  Dec 02, 2021 166   Oral Roberts W 71-63 79%     6 - 1 +5.3 -1.8 +7.6
  Dec 07, 2021 66   Utah L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 11, 2021 76   Texas A&M L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 18, 2021 147   @ Georgetown W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 21, 2021 320   Grambling St. W 77-59 95%    
  Dec 29, 2021 176   Texas Southern W 72-63 81%    
  Jan 01, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 65-80 8%    
  Jan 03, 2022 43   West Virginia L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 3   Baylor L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 12, 2022 64   @ Kansas St. L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 15, 2022 29   Oklahoma L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 19, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma St. L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 58   @ Iowa St. L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 25, 2022 12   Texas L 60-67 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 11   LSU L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 31, 2022 29   @ Oklahoma L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 64   Kansas St. W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 08, 2022 40   Oklahoma St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 12, 2022 19   @ Texas Tech L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 58   Iowa St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 62-78 8%    
  Feb 23, 2022 12   @ Texas L 57-70 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 19   Texas Tech L 64-69 32%    
  Mar 01, 2022 6   Kansas L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 64-71 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.9 6.4 2.1 0.2 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.9 7.9 7.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 22.1 9th
10th 1.2 4.4 8.3 9.1 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 30.6 10th
Total 1.2 4.4 9.0 13.1 15.2 15.7 13.4 10.4 7.5 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 51.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.6% 99.0% 5.6% 93.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-7 1.4% 96.4% 5.0% 91.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
10-8 2.8% 89.1% 3.1% 86.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 88.8%
9-9 4.7% 68.6% 2.4% 66.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 67.8%
8-10 7.5% 33.8% 1.5% 32.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 5.0 32.8%
7-11 10.4% 10.0% 0.7% 9.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.4 9.4%
6-12 13.4% 1.6% 0.4% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2 1.3%
5-13 15.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.1%
4-14 15.2% 15.2
3-15 13.1% 13.1
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 11.9% 0.6% 11.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.1 11.4%