McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.0 83
Expected Predictive Rating +8.5 70
Pace 66.1 245
Improvement -2.2 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 83 C C+ A- C C+
Defense B- 90 C+ D- A+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 C+ 59% 140 +2.9 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 174 B- 41% 76 +0.5 147
Three Pointers 37% 271 D+ 32% 274 -3.3 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 143 C -0.2 181
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 172
Second Chance B 34.9% 58 C- 0.98 247 C+ 0.34 102
Turnovers A- 13.4% 18
Freethrows C- 0.29 218 B- 75% 81 C 0.22 172
Total Offense B- +3.9 83

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 234 A- 6.9% 23
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 238 C+ 4.4% 140
Three Pointers D 77% 320 B+ 0.2% 26
Total D 49% 311 B+ 4.0% 25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 306 C 57% 156 -3.0 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 283 B 34% 61 -1.9 42
Three Pointers 49% 15 C+ 33% 119 +3.1 315
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 187 B- -1.9 105
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 116
Second Chance D- 35.4% 337 D+ 1.10 282 D- 0.39 337
Turnovers A+ 24.3% 1
Freethrows F+ 0.39 352 D 74% 300 F 0.29 357
Total Defense B- +3.1 90

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 313 A- 17.3% 26
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 215 B+ 8.1% 43
Three Pointers D+ 88% 289 A+ 3.2% 6
Total D- 64% 335 A- 8.8% 18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 95 18.9 352
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 23 0.15 95
Improvement -1.5 #263 -0.8 #237

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 98 82 65
Conference Record 17 - 5 18 - 4 19 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50% 50% 46%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 6% 7% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round50% 50% 46%
Second Round7% 7% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 4
Quad 37 - 19 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 22% -5  30% 0 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 F A+ C B- +3 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 303 Louisiana W 88 - 62 94% +18  98% 1 - 1 A- +15 A +13 A+ F B- B- +3 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 80 George Washington W 92 - 86 50% +6  76% 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +13 C+ A+ A+ C+ +0 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Murray St. W 73 - 60 66% +16  84% 3 - 1 A- +16 F+ -8 D F A+ A+ +23 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 171 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 77% -3  17% 4 - 1 B +9 A +13 F A+ A C -1 D+ B B+
 Mon, Dec 1 275 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 84% -5  1% 4 - 2 0 - 1 D+ -8 D- -8 F+ B- F+ C -0 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 280 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93% +24  98% 5 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +16 A+ C- B A+ +14 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 113 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 53% +2  70% 6 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 C- F A+ A+ +11 C- C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 304 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  99% 7 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 A+ A- D- A- +8 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 294 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 86% -1  43% 8 - 2 3 - 1 B- +5 A +13 B- A+ A D -6 B- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  0% 8 - 3 D -11 C- -0 D+ C- A+ D+ -4 C- F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 207 Lamar W 82 - 70 88% +4  71% 9 - 3 4 - 1 B- +6 A+ +17 A- A- A- F+ -9 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 98 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 68% -2  10% 10 - 3 5 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 B D- A+ C+ +1 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 281 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 93% +7  83% 11 - 3 6 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B D- A- C- -2 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 265 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 92% +15  90% 12 - 3 7 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 B- C+ A+ A- +8 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 64% -10  3% 12 - 4 7 - 2 C +0 A- +10 D+ C A+ F+ -10 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 73% +6  76% 13 - 4 8 - 2 A- +17 A- +10 D A+ B- A +10 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 209 New Orleans W 82 - 63 88% +9  95% 14 - 4 9 - 2 B+ +13 C+ +3 D C+ C+ A +11 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 281 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 85% +8  91% 15 - 4 10 - 2 B- +6 B +7 B C- B- C +0 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Lamar W 64 - 63 74% +3  85% 16 - 4 11 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 F C A C- -2 C C- B-
 Mon, Feb 2 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 67 45% -6  3% 16 - 5 11 - 3 C +1 F -10 F A+ F A+ +11 B C- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 275 Incarnate Word W 81 - 64 93% +6  85% 17 - 5 12 - 3 B- +7 B+ +9 A+ F+ A+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 294 Houston Christian W 73 - 69 94% +5  95% 18 - 5 13 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 C D- B- C -1 C+ D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 304 @East Texas A&M W 97 - 54 87% +18  95% 19 - 5 14 - 3 A+ +38 A+ +25 A+ C+ A+ A+ +14 A C A-
 Mon, Feb 16 280 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 84% +11  98% 20 - 5 15 - 3 B- +7 B +6 F C+ A+ B- +3 C B B+
 Sat, Feb 21 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 64 88%
 Mon, Feb 23 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 67 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @New Orleans W 80 - 73 74%
 Mon, Mar 2 265 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 70 82%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 B- +4 A C C+ B- +3 D+ B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ B- D+ C 43% 38% 37% C+ C B C- C+ A- C- B- C B- C B C+ B- 34% 17% 49% C C+ D- D+ D- A+ F+ D F
1.14 59% 41% 32% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.0 .34 13% .29 75% .22 1.04 57% 34% 33% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .39 24% .39 74% .22
Nov
7		 Santa Clara C F A+ F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- A+ A+ C A C+ A B- B- A+ F+ B 26% 13% 61% B- B F A+ C+ A+ F A+ F
0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32 1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29
Nov
14		 Louisiana A B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% B A+ C F F B- A+ B A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% F+ A+ F D- F A+ F F F
1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54 0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40
Nov
23		 George Washington A B+ F B- C 49% 25% 25% C+ C+ A A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A- F B+ B+ 29% 7% 64% B+ A- F F F A+ F F+ F
1.25 67% 21% 36% +1 0 1.04 39% 1.2 .47 11% .43 82% .35 1.17 50% 100% 30% -2 +1 1.00 55% 1.4 .79 33% .60 80% .48
Nov
24		 Murray St. F+ B- B- F D- 42% 20% 38% C+ D D F F A+ C- F F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 26% 19% 55% B+ A+ D+ C D+ A+ F A+ D+
0.98 60% 42% 22% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15 0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Middle Tennessee A F F F F 43% 25% 33% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F F+ 19% 33% 49% A+ D+ F A+ B B+ D- A+ C-
1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45 1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17
Dec
1		 Incarnate Word D- D- A+ F D- 42% 29% 29% F+ F+ D A+ B- F+ F A+ D- C F A F F 26% 28% 46% A- F F F F A+ F C- F
1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23 1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34
Dec
5		 Northwestern St. A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 57% 13% 30% A- A+ A+ F C- B D- B- D A+ A+ B+ C B- 22% 13% 65% D C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A C+ A
1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21 0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17
Dec
9		 Rhode Island D+ D- B+ C+ D+ 51% 14% 35% B+ C- C F F A+ D+ F D- A+ D- F B+ C- 42% 11% 47% D C- A+ F C A+ F F F
0.96 48% 43% 35% -4 +2 0.98 31% 0.5 .15 16% .33 63% .21 0.94 67% 50% 29% +2 +1 1.08 17% 1.8 .30 31% .57 85% .48
Dec
12		 East Texas A&M A C D+ A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A A+ A C A- D- A- A+ A A- C F A+ B- 40% 12% 48% D- C+ D B- C- A+ D A+ C
1.29 58% 33% 58% +13 +3 1.34 41% 1.1 .45 20% .38 79% .30 0.84 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.92 27% 0.8 .22 28% .28 56% .16
Dec
15		 Houston Christian A A+ B+ F B 46% 19% 35% C B- D+ A+ A+ A F B+ F D A+ A+ F C+ 27% 27% 47% A B- F+ F F C- D- F F
1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28
Dec
29		 Michigan C- F D+ F D+ 27% 29% 44% C D+ B F C- A+ A+ C- A D+ F F A D+ 48% 10% 42% C+ C- F F F B+ F B F
0.85 39% 32% 24% -14 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23 1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45
Jan
2		 Lamar A+ C A+ B A- 45% 21% 34% C+ A- A+ D- A- A- A+ A- A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ F F F C F F F
1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57 1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50
Jan
5		 Stephen F. Austin C+ B+ A+ D- B 33% 16% 51% C B A F D- A+ D F F+ C+ A- F B+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F+ B F+ F F A+ A A+ A
1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15 1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09
Jan
10		 SE Louisiana B- B- F+ B C+ 54% 14% 32% A B A F D- A- F C- F C- A- A+ B- B+ 49% 3% 49% F C F F F A+ F B F
1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21 0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39
Jan
12		 Nicholls St. B+ B- D+ A+ B- 42% 20% 38% C- B- F A+ C+ A+ C A B- A- B- A+ D- D+ 36% 4% 60% F D D+ A+ A A+ B A B+
1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30 0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14
Jan
17		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- B A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% C- D+ A F C A+ A A+ A+ F+ D F+ F F 25% 16% 59% B F B+ F F B F D+ F
1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37 1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27
Jan
19		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- D+ F D- 51% 24% 24% C D A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D A A F+ C- A+ C- 30% 35% 35% A+ C+ A+ A- A+ B+ F C F
1.17 58% 33% 22% -6 0 0.92 50% 1.4 .68 19% .54 69% .38 0.90 64% 38% 23% -4 -2 0.89 17% 0.8 .13 20% .51 67% .34
Jan
24		 New Orleans C+ C F F F+ 63% 8% 29% A+ D A+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- C+ C+ 49% 13% 38% F C- A F C+ A+ F B- F
1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42 0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39
Jan
27		 SE Louisiana B A- A+ F B 48% 23% 30% B- B C- C C- B- A+ D+ A+ C D A+ F D- 22% 22% 57% B- D B- F F A+ F F F
1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39 0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58
Jan
31		 Lamar C+ C F A+ D- 28% 40% 33% F F B- D- C A C- A+ A C- B- B- D C 27% 38% 36% B C F A+ C- B- C- D D+
1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34 1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Stephen F. Austin F F D- F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F C+ B- C+ A+ A+ F C B 33% 24% 43% C- B D B- C- A- F F F
0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28
Feb
7		 Incarnate Word B+ A+ F A+ A 53% 9% 37% B+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A C+ B+ B F D+ 39% 9% 52% F D F C F A+ F B- F
1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36 1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41
Feb
9		 Houston Christian D C A+ F+ C 60% 19% 21% B C F B D- B- C+ D+ C+ C C F A+ C+ 40% 23% 36% C+ C+ C F D- A F F F
1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21 1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32
Feb
14		 East Texas A&M A+ B+ A- A+ A+ 38% 15% 47% C- A+ D+ A C+ A+ F+ C- D- A+ F A A+ A 28% 17% 55% B- A B+ F C A- D+ F F
1.42 65% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.3 .38 6% .25 69% .17 0.79 69% 25% 19% -11 0 0.79 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .23
Feb
16		 Northwestern St. B D D C- D- 27% 35% 38% F F B- C C+ A+ D- F F B- F A- A+ C 43% 33% 25% C C F A+ B B+ F F F
1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17 1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.4 6.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 14.3 37.8 39.4 94.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.3 14.3 38.3 44.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 12.1% 5.4    0.8 4.7
18-4 1.5% 0.6    0.0 0.5
17-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 6.0% 6.0 0.8 5.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 44.8% 53.1% 52.8% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 6.6 16.7 0.5 21.0 0.5%
18-4 38.3% 48.3% 48.2% 0.1% 12.0 1.9 14.7 1.9 0.0 19.8 0.1%
17-5 14.3% 45.2% 45.2% 12.2 0.3 4.7 1.5 0.0 7.8
16-6 2.3% 39.5% 39.5% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4
15-7 0.2% 30.2% 30.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 49.8% 49.6% 0.1% 11.9 50.2 0.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.7% 100.0% 11.7 0.1 27.5 70.5 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.4% 0.7% 11.2 0.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.7% 0.3% 11.1 0.2 0.0