McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#339
Expected Predictive Rating-14.3#350
Pace66.4#233
Improvement+0.4#145

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#257
First Shot-3.3#287
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#127
Layup/Dunks-4.2#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#41
Freethrows-4.4#363
Improvement+0.8#61

Defense
Total Defense-8.4#359
First Shot-8.5#361
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#164
Layups/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#363
Freethrows-1.7#299
Improvement-0.4#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 9.3% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 12.2% 48.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 47 - 128 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 77   @ Tulane L 58-75 4%     0 - 1 -7.4 -14.4 +7.9
  Nov 18, 2022 260   Western Carolina L 69-88 39%     0 - 2 -27.1 -6.1 -21.8
  Nov 19, 2022 352   Lindenwood L 60-78 68%     0 - 3 -34.0 -18.5 -15.6
  Nov 20, 2022 357   Lamar W 66-57 75%     1 - 3 -9.2 -11.7 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 60-89 1%     1 - 4 -11.5 -5.9 -6.3
  Nov 28, 2022 296   @ Tennessee Martin L 83-86 26%     1 - 5 -7.5 +8.8 -16.3
  Nov 30, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 40-76 1%     1 - 6 -14.6 -16.0 -1.0
  Dec 09, 2022 160   @ Northern Iowa W 52-49 10%     2 - 6 +6.1 -13.3 +19.6
  Dec 11, 2022 22   @ Iowa St. L 40-77 1%     2 - 7 -20.5 -20.1 -2.6
  Dec 15, 2022 112   Louisiana L 70-78 14%     2 - 8 -7.3 -0.5 -7.1
  Dec 18, 2022 111   @ Southern Miss L 67-86 6%     2 - 9 -12.8 -6.9 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2022 1   @ Houston L 44-83 1%     2 - 10 -16.8 -11.1 -11.0
  Dec 31, 2022 357   @ Lamar W 81-62 57%     3 - 10 1 - 0 +6.2 +6.7 +0.8
  Jan 05, 2023 225   Northwestern St. W 92-77 31%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +9.3 +16.7 -7.2
  Jan 07, 2023 319   Texas A&M - Commerce L 80-82 OT 52%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -13.6 +1.9 -15.5
  Jan 12, 2023 225   @ Northwestern St. L 75-89 16%     4 - 12 2 - 2 -14.3 -4.5 -8.8
  Jan 14, 2023 350   Houston Christian L 81-90 66%     4 - 13 2 - 3 -24.3 -0.5 -23.8
  Jan 19, 2023 250   @ Nicholls St. L 64-73 20%     4 - 14 2 - 4 -11.0 -2.6 -9.3
  Jan 21, 2023 250   Nicholls St. L 68-71 36%     4 - 15 2 - 5 -10.5 -3.6 -7.1
  Jan 26, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word L 65-70 43%     4 - 16 2 - 6 -14.1 -8.0 -6.4
  Jan 28, 2023 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-83 19%     4 - 17 2 - 7 -12.6 -1.4 -11.5
  Feb 02, 2023 357   Lamar W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 04, 2023 319   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 09, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 75-78 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 348   @ New Orleans L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 16, 2023 344   Incarnate Word W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 23, 2023 350   @ Houston Christian L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 73-81 22%    
  Mar 01, 2023 348   New Orleans W 79-75 65%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.4 5.4 8.2 2.3 0.1 16.3 6th
7th 0.2 6.0 11.3 3.4 0.1 21.1 7th
8th 0.1 4.7 12.9 4.8 0.3 22.7 8th
9th 0.5 4.9 11.7 5.5 0.3 0.0 23.0 9th
10th 0.4 2.6 4.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 10th
Total 0.4 3.1 9.8 18.6 24.9 22.0 13.8 5.8 1.5 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.7
8-10 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-11 22.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.0
6-12 24.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 24.8
5-13 18.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.6
4-14 9.8% 9.8
3-15 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 5.6% 16.0 5.6
Lose Out 0.4%