Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#288
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#260
Pace66.6#261
Improvement-3.4#347

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#293
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#327
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows-3.8#352
Improvement-3.0#350

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#242
First Shot-3.0#279
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#122
Layups/Dunks-2.0#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#296
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement-0.4#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 5.6% 12.0% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 21.9% 38.8% 15.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 33.1% 17.4% 38.9%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 142 Drake L 71-77 23%     0 - 1 -4.8 -1.0 -3.8
  Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -8.8 -11.0 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 259 Cal Poly W 93-87 56%     1 - 2 -2.3 +4.8 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 49%     2 - 2 +0.6 +3.8 -3.1
  Wed, Dec 3 172 South Dakota St. L 62-75 39%     2 - 3 -16.8 -11.6 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 6 149 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 16%     2 - 4 +3.0 -3.6 +6.6
  Tue, Dec 9 72 @Arizona St. L 48-73 6%     2 - 5 -14.3 -17.7 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 13 247 @San Diego L 69-78 32%     2 - 6 -10.9 -2.1 -9.3
  Thu, Dec 18 319 Southern Utah W 65-57 71%     3 - 6 -4.3 -7.3 +3.6
  Sun, Dec 21 164 @Incarnate Word L 66-90 19%     3 - 7 -21.3 -6.1 -16.1
  Thu, Jan 1 207 @Montana L 71-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 167 @Montana St. L 64-73 20%    
  Thu, Jan 8 226 Weber St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 178 Idaho St. L 67-70 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 272 @Sacramento St. L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 174 @Portland St. L 64-73 21%    
  Mon, Jan 19 207 Montana L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 Northern Colorado L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 261 Eastern Washington W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 171 Idaho L 70-73 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 178 @Idaho St. L 64-73 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 226 @Weber St. L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 174 Portland St. L 67-70 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 272 Sacramento St. W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 170 @Northern Colorado L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 171 @Idaho L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 261 @Eastern Washington L 73-77 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 167 Montana St. L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 2.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.4 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.3 7.1 4.9 1.0 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 4.0 6.2 6.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 22.8 10th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.1 7.5 10.9 13.8 14.4 13.9 11.5 8.8 6.0 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 79.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 60.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 25.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 23.7% 23.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 13.8% 13.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-6 1.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.4
10-8 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.7
9-9 8.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.5
8-10 11.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.3
7-11 13.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 14.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.3
5-13 13.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.7
4-14 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.9
3-15 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-16 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%