Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.9 311
Expected Predictive Rating -7.8 290
Pace 62.3 337
Improvement -1.2 229

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 222 C D- C D C-
Defense D- 349 D- D C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 C- 57% 202 -0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 123 C- 37% 215 +1.0 122
Three Pointers 38% 241 B- 36% 86 -0.1 182
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 248 C +0.6 145
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 171
Second Chance D- 23.6% 342 C- 0.98 246 D- 0.23 335
Turnovers C 16.5% 159
Freethrows D 0.27 293 D- 67% 335 D 0.18 324
Total Offense C- -1.8 222

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 208 C- 11.5% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 254 D 7.3% 311
Three Pointers B- 88% 93 B+ 0.2% 24
Total C 54% 206 C- 6.2% 245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 80 D+ 61% 275 +3.8 308
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 329 D+ 41% 275 -1.6 62
Three Pointers 42% 138 D- 38% 337 +3.1 317
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 339 D- +4.1 327
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 337
Second Chance D+ 33.3% 293 D+ 1.09 275 D 0.36 308
Turnovers C- 16.5% 199
Freethrows C+ 0.30 168 D+ 74% 270 C 0.22 183
Total Defense D- -7.1 349

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 62 D 7.5% 317
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 259 C- 4.5% 196
Three Pointers D 88% 301 D+ 0.6% 240
Total C 56% 182 D+ 4.1% 299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 343 17.2 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 333 0.16 121
Improvement +3.2 #44 -4.4 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 325 310 288
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 10 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 80% 49% 85%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 194 Drake L 71 - 77 25% -0  37% 0 - 1 D+ -8 D -6 D+ F A+ C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 3 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -8 F -13 D+ D- F B+ +5 C B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 231 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 42% +0  54% 1 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B C- C+ D+ -4 F+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 227 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 41% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +4 C- A+ B C- -3 B- C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 206 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 38% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -19 F -15 F+ D- F+ D+ -4 B D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +4 D- -7 D+ D- C+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 63 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -19 F F C+ B +4 C B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 220 @San Diego L 69 - 78 21% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -9 D+ -4 C C- F D -6 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 273 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 52% +0  43% 3 - 6 C -2 F+ -10 F+ D+ C+ A +9 B- A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 275 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 30% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -28 F -11 B- F F F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 183 @Montana L 64 - 78 16% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D -5 D+ C+ F F+ -9 F B- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 13% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- D B+ F+ -9 F+ D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 224 Weber St. L 65 - 78 41% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -20 F+ -8 F C A- F -13 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 49% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -11 B- +4 D- A+ D F -15 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 271 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 29% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -17 D- -6 C F F+ F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 142 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D+ -7 F -10 C+ F D B- +2 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 183 Montana L 72 - 98 33% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -30 B +6 A F A- F -39 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 156 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 28% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +1 A +13 A+ B+ C- F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 201 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 36% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C +1 A+ +18 B+ A+ A+ F -17 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 186 Idaho L 62 - 79 34% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -22 F -12 C- D D F -11 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 261 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 27% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +3 A +14 A+ F A+ F+ -9 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 224 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 21% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -20 F -15 F+ F C+ F+ -9 D- F C-
 Thu, Feb 12 142 Portland St. L 68 - 77 25% -1  38% 6 - 17 3 - 10 D -11 C+ +3 C+ B- A+ F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 271 Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 52% +10  98% 7 - 17 4 - 10 C- -4 D+ -4 B+ F C- C -0 D+ C- B
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Northern Colorado L 69 - 81 13%
 Thu, Feb 26 186 @Idaho L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 81 18%
 Mon, Mar 2 147 Montana St. L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 C- -2 C- C C- D- -7 B- D- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- B- C 38% 42% 38% C- C D- C- D- C D D- D D- D+ D+ D- D- 43% 15% 42% D- D- D+ D+ D C- C+ D+ C
1.06 57% 37% 36% +1 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .23 17% .27 67% .18 1.19 61% 41% 38% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .36 16% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D- 49% 20% 31% A- D+ C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C F+ D+ F+
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F D- F F B F B+ C A+ F C+ 34% 18% 48% D+ C B- C+ B- A C F D+
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C+ C A A B+ 39% 21% 39% D+ B C- C C- C+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ B- B+ C- A D+ A-
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +5 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ C C C- C 49% 26% 26% C- C- D+ A+ A+ B B D+ B- C- C A+ A+ A- 59% 7% 34% F B- C- D+ C- F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F C- C+ F F+ 33% 24% 43% D F+ F C+ D- F+ B F D+ D+ B B B B+ 37% 12% 51% D B D D- D- C F D+ F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A F A- C 34% 38% 28% F D+ D- D D- C+ F C F A A- D+ B- B 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D- A+ C
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A- F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F C+ F A+ D- B F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A B+ A D- A C-
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D+ A+ D+ B B 26% 34% 40% F C D+ C+ C- F F+ A+ C- D D- B F F 33% 20% 47% C- F+ D+ F F B+ F C F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F+ F+ D- A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% C- F+ F+ B+ D+ C+ B D- B- A A B F B 54% 21% 25% D- B- B+ A A A- C+ B+ B-
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F B- F A+ B 41% 22% 37% D B- F F F F C+ F F F C C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F+ F+ F F F B- F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C+ C+ D+ 34% 28% 38% D D+ C B C+ F C- B C F+ F A F F 39% 14% 47% D+ F B- B- B- C- B- F C
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D C- D B+ F+ F F F+ A- F F F+ 29% 13% 58% F+ F+ D- D+ D- D- C F D-
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B- F D A+ C A- C- F D F B+ A F D+ 44% 7% 48% D- D D+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +1 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- D+ F F F 60% 14% 26% A D- A- A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C- F A- F F+ F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D- D A+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C C- F F F+ F+ B+ D- F A+ C F D 37% 21% 42% D D C F F F C F D
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D D- F F B- B+ A+ C+ B+ 47% 9% 45% F+ B- F+ C+ D+ C F+ A- D+
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B A+ F B A 40% 4% 56% A+ A F F F A- C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F F F F F C+ D- C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F+ A+ B+ C- C+ D+ C+ F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A F F B+ F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F A- A+ B 55% 8% 37% A- B+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B A+ F C- 51% 10% 39% F D F B F C F D F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D D+ 40% 27% 33% C C- D- C+ D D C- F D- F F D- D F 43% 13% 44% D F A+ C- A- D A+ D- A+
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D D D- F+ F B+ C+ D- 52% 7% 41% F F+ A+ F F F C C- C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F D+ F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F C+ C+ F D F+ C+ F D D 56% 7% 37% F D- F D- F C- F B- F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36
Feb
12		 Portland St. C+ C A+ F C+ 32% 16% 52% C C+ D- A+ B- A+ F A- D- F F F C+ F 61% 16% 24% F F A+ F F C+ F F F
1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23 1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44
Feb
14		 Sacramento St. D+ A+ A+ D- B+ 39% 9% 52% C+ B+ F+ F F C- A+ F A+ C F D- A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ D C+ C- B F C F
1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36 1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 1.7 7.1 1.4 10.2 8th
9th 8.2 25.3 6.9 0.1 40.6 9th
10th 36.0 11.6 0.2 47.8 10th
Total 44.3 38.6 14.4 2.6 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 14.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.3
5-13 38.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 38.5
4-14 44.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 44.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 28.2%