Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#301
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#246
Pace66.2#260
Improvement-0.9#237

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#241
First Shot-7.7#353
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#6
Layup/Dunks-1.3#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#274
Freethrows-5.8#361
Improvement-0.4#219

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#320
First Shot-5.3#334
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#134
Layups/Dunks-1.9#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#332
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement-0.5#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.1% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 21.0% 30.2% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 32.4% 21.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 20.4% 29.6%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round2.1% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 49 - 911 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 64-90 8%     0 - 1 -17.3 +4.0 -25.1
  Nov 14, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 60-57 35%     1 - 1 -0.3 -9.6 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 314   Incarnate Word W 75-74 65%     2 - 1 -10.4 -2.4 -8.0
  Nov 26, 2024 299   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 50%     2 - 2 -11.3 -7.2 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2024 351   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 59%     3 - 2 -6.6 +0.6 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2024 261   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 33%     3 - 3 -9.6 +0.7 -10.5
  Dec 07, 2024 224   South Dakota L 79-80 47%    
  Dec 14, 2024 258   @ Pepperdine L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 199   @ Southern Utah L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 02, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 210   Weber St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 190   @ Montana L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 11, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 16, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 256   Portland St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 265   @ Idaho L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 03, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 122   Montana St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 190   Montana L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 256   @ Portland St. L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 20, 2025 265   Idaho W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   Eastern Washington L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 03, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. L 65-70 32%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 5.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.2 3.2 0.3 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.5 6.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 6.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 3.4 5.3 4.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.6 6.9 10.0 12.2 13.4 13.6 11.7 9.5 7.0 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 87.9% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 69.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 42.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 11.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 35.1% 35.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 29.9% 29.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 23.7% 23.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.5% 14.9% 14.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2
12-6 2.9% 11.5% 11.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.6
11-7 4.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.5
10-8 7.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.7
9-9 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 9.1
8-10 11.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.4
7-11 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 10.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-15 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-16 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%