Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#310
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#247
Pace66.8#244
Improvement-2.1#309

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#262
First Shot-2.8#261
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks-5.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#194
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement-1.0#262

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#329
First Shot-6.6#340
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#130
Layups/Dunks-7.1#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#52
Freethrows-3.5#320
Improvement-1.1#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5.5% 12.3% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 25.5% 17.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 6.7% 10.4%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 52-81 1%     0 - 1 -7.4 -10.1 +2.7
  Nov 11, 2021 148   @ Washington L 62-73 11%     0 - 2 -6.6 -12.3 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2021 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 36%     1 - 2 +5.0 +2.4 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2021 292   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 89-87 34%     2 - 2 -2.5 +3.4 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2021 292   UT Rio Grande Valley L 80-82 57%     2 - 3 -12.5 +2.8 -15.3
  Nov 24, 2021 205   Cal St. Fullerton L 56-73 35%     2 - 4 -21.7 -14.1 -9.7
  Dec 02, 2021 96   @ Weber St. L 44-67 7%     2 - 5 0 - 1 -14.7 -26.9 +13.4
  Dec 04, 2021 322   @ Idaho St. W 73-70 42%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -3.6 +5.1 -8.4
  Dec 11, 2021 245   @ South Dakota L 68-75 24%    
  Dec 18, 2021 178   San Diego L 62-70 22%    
  Dec 20, 2021 2   @ Gonzaga L 63-95 0.1%   
  Dec 30, 2021 345   Idaho W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 08, 2022 133   @ Southern Utah L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 10, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 184   @ Northern Colorado L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 20, 2022 192   Montana St. L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 209   Montana L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 260   Portland St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 03, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 184   Northern Colorado L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 10, 2022 209   @ Montana L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 192   @ Montana St. L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 17, 2022 260   @ Portland St. L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 21, 2022 133   Southern Utah L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 24, 2022 322   Idaho St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 96   Weber St. L 67-78 17%    
  Mar 03, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 72-81 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 345   @ Idaho W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.1 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 16.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.9 8.0 5.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 21.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.9 7.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 20.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.0 8.1 11.8 14.4 15.2 13.8 11.7 8.2 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 51.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 13.5% 13.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5
12-8 3.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
11-9 5.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
10-10 8.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.1
9-11 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
8-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-13 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
6-14 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-15 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%