Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.5 294
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 292
Pace 61.6 346
Improvement +2.0 106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 256 D+ D C- D+ C
Defense D 299 D- D+ C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 128 C- 56% 215 +0.3 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 112 D 34% 309 -0.3 196
Three Pointers 38% 251 C- 33% 229 -2.3 263
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 198 D+ -2.2 263
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 251
Second Chance C- 28.7% 230 F+ 0.87 349 D 0.25 316
Turnovers C- 17.5% 224
Freethrows D+ 0.28 263 D+ 69% 287 D+ 0.19 287
Total Offense D+ -3.3 256

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 63 C- 12.1% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 81 C- 5.8% 237
Three Pointers C 85% 175 B+ 0.2% 34
Total B- 60% 87 C- 6.2% 247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 57 F+ 66% 347 +6.5 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 312 C 38% 164 -1.7 56
Three Pointers 40% 213 D 37% 306 +1.3 248
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 333 D- +4.9 342
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 347
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 286 D+ 1.08 261 D+ 0.36 292
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 124
Freethrows C+ 0.28 118 C- 73% 212 C+ 0.21 126
Total Defense D -4.2 299

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 335 C 10.7% 188
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 285 C- 3.7% 250
Three Pointers D 89% 309 B 1.7% 54
Total D 63% 327 C 5.9% 150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 341 17.5 221
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.20 263
Improvement -1.2 #245 +3.2 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 310 290 262
Conference Record 6 - 16 7 - 15 9 - 13
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 18% 3% 26%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 48 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 137 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 13% -13  17% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -10 C+ F F D+ -4 F+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 82% -3  32% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F+ F B- B+ +7 C- A A-
 Tue, Nov 25 287 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 49% +1  48% 1 - 2 D- -12 D- -6 F A- B D- -7 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 342 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 57% +6  96% 2 - 2 C- -2 B +6 B- B- D D- -7 D+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 262 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 32% -6  6% 2 - 3 F -21 F -13 D- F F F+ -8 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 138 @North Texas L 75 - 77 14% -1  35% 2 - 4 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ F A+ F -14 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 209 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 23% +4  77% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A +14 C+ B+ A+ D+ -4 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 281 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 59% -3  4% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D- -13 D -6 C- D D- D- -7 D D+ C
 Mon, Dec 15 83 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 14% +1  56% 3 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 D+ B A+ F -13 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 265 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 32% -11  0% 3 - 7 1 - 3 F -18 F -12 D F+ F D -6 D D F
 Mon, Dec 29 7 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  2% 3 - 8 C- -3 C+ +2 B F B- D- -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 35% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 4 F -21 F -21 F F F C -1 D+ B F+
 Mon, Jan 5 199 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 41% -8  10% 3 - 10 1 - 5 F -21 F+ -9 F+ B- F F -12 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 8% -15  0% 3 - 11 1 - 6 D -10 B- +5 A- D+ F F -17 F+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 12 207 @Lamar L 56 - 64 23% +1  59% 3 - 12 1 - 7 D+ -8 F -12 F D- D B- +3 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 304 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 64% -3  25% 4 - 12 2 - 7 C -0 B- +5 C+ B- D- D -5 F B- B
 Mon, Jan 19 280 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 59% -4  4% 5 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -8 A+ +23 A+ A+ C- F -31 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 150 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 32% -8  10% 5 - 13 3 - 8 F -20 F -17 C D- F D -5 F A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 275 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 58% -6  21% 6 - 13 4 - 8 C- -4 D+ -4 F A- F+ C -0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 199 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 73 22% -0  45% 6 - 14 4 - 9 C -1 A- +10 A+ F C+ F -11 F A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 57 - 74 16% -15  0% 6 - 15 4 - 10 D- -14 F+ -8 F+ F A+ D- -7 C+ F A
 Sat, Feb 7 281 @SE Louisiana L 47 - 55 36% -6  1% 6 - 16 4 - 11 D- -12 F -15 F F D+ C+ +1 F D+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 83 @McNeese St. L 69 - 73 6% -5  4% 6 - 17 4 - 12 B- +6 C +1 D+ D B B+ +5 F+ A- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 209 New Orleans W 61 - 60 44% +1  45% 7 - 17 5 - 12 C- -5 F -11 D C- F+ B+ +6 A- C D-
 Mon, Feb 16 265 Nicholls St. W 72 - 68 55% +5  77% 8 - 17 6 - 12 C- -5 D -6 F C- A+ C+ +1 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 21 280 @Northwestern St. L 66 - 70 37%
 Mon, Feb 23 304 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 98 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 18%
 Mon, Mar 2 207 Lamar L 67 - 69 44%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 15 -8 D+ -3 F D+ C D -4 C- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D C- D+ 40% 44% 38% C D+ C- F+ D C- D+ D+ D+ D F+ C D D- 44% 16% 40% D D- D+ D+ D+ C+ C+ C- C+
1.04 56% 34% 33% -2 0 0.97 29% 0.9 .25 17% .28 69% .19 1.15 66% 38% 37% +5 +1 1.14 33% 1.1 .36 18% .28 73% .20
Nov
8		 UC San Diego F A- F C- C+ 34% 22% 44% C- C+ F F+ F F C F F D+ D- C F F 36% 16% 48% B F+ C C C C+ B F C+
0.86 65% 27% 32% -2 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09 1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17
Nov
13		 Louisiana Monroe F D F D F 45% 11% 45% B- F+ F F F B- F A+ D- B+ C+ C C+ C 43% 15% 42% F+ C- A+ C A A- A+ F A+
1.03 56% 33% 32% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 14% .17 80% .13 0.87 52% 38% 32% -4 +1 0.96 12% 1.0 .12 21% .13 86% .11
Nov
25		 Bellarmine D- B+ F C+ F 32% 25% 43% D F D A+ A- B A+ F F+ D- F A+ F+ F 45% 19% 36% B- F A+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17 1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36
Nov
26		 The Citadel B A+ A+ D B- 38% 13% 49% C B- C+ B B- D C- F D D- C- A+ F+ D+ 30% 15% 55% C- D+ F+ F F D- B F D+
1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16 1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20
Nov
29		 Georgia Southern F D+ F F F 52% 9% 39% B+ D- D- F F F F+ F F F+ D A+ F F 46% 9% 44% D F D- C D D- B- A+ A
0.93 54% 25% 28% -7 +3 0.93 30% 0.8 .24 22% .29 67% .19 1.20 60% 20% 42% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.1 .35 12% .31 56% .17
Dec
2		 North Texas A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 39% 18% 43% B- A+ F F F A+ A+ F A F D- A+ F F 61% 5% 34% F F C- F F+ A+ D- A+ A-
1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33 1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19
Dec
6		 New Orleans A C- B- B- C+ 46% 19% 35% C+ C+ C+ A B+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ D+ A+ F D 44% 12% 44% F D- A- C+ B+ F C+ A+ B+
1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38 1.15 59% 17% 41% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23
Dec
13		 SE Louisiana D C- F C+ D+ 48% 12% 40% A C- B- F D D- D F F+ D- C- B- C- D 39% 24% 37% C- D D+ D+ D+ C F D F
1.01 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 23% .33 67% .22 1.05 58% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 19% .44 72% .31
Dec
15		 McNeese St. B- F F A+ C- 27% 27% 47% F+ D+ C- A B A+ D A C- F F D A+ F 46% 19% 35% D+ F B+ F F C A+ D+ A+
1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28 1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13
Dec
17		 Nicholls St. F C B F F+ 62% 17% 21% A- D F A+ F+ F A+ F B+ D F F B+ D- 39% 19% 42% C D C- F+ D F A+ F A-
0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31 1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
29		 Iowa St. C+ A+ B- D A 19% 45% 36% F B F A+ F B- A A+ A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% B A+ F F F C- F D F
0.92 89% 38% 29% +3 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27 1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47
Jan
3		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 53% 19% 28% C+ F C F F F F F F C F+ F+ A C- 36% 20% 45% D+ D+ A D+ B F+ A- D- B
0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11 1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15
Jan
5		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ B F+ F F+ 35% 20% 45% D+ F+ B- C B- F D- C+ D F D- F B- F 46% 23% 31% C F F C- F D+ A F+ B+
0.94 65% 30% 23% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.0 .32 25% .36 74% .27 1.17 63% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 45% 1.0 .45 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Stephen F. Austin B- A B- C- A- 45% 17% 38% B A- C F+ D+ F A- A+ A F F F C+ D 40% 8% 52% F F+ F B F D- C+ F D+
1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29 1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18
Jan
12		 Lamar F F+ F F F 43% 21% 36% C F B F D- D A- C B+ B- D B+ D- D- 36% 21% 43% F F+ B+ B B+ A+ F D+ F
0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32 1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37
Jan
17		 East Texas A&M B- D- D+ A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ B- C B- D- A+ D+ A+ D F+ A- F F 38% 15% 48% C- F F+ A+ B- B D- A+ C+
1.18 50% 33% 45% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 20% .55 67% .37 1.02 67% 29% 39% +6 +1 1.15 30% 0.6 .18 20% .29 50% .15
Jan
19		 Northwestern St. A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ C A+ F F+ F D- F 46% 15% 39% F F F F+ F D F D- F
1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35 1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40
Jan
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley F D B- B+ C+ 37% 24% 39% C- C C F D- F F F F D F+ A+ F F 58% 4% 38% F F A A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12 1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08
Jan
27		 Incarnate Word D+ D F F F 61% 15% 24% B+ F A+ D+ A- F+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F F F+ 39% 18% 43% D- F+ F A C A+ F A+ F+
1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50 1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25
Jan
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C B- A+ A+ 29% 24% 46% F+ A+ B+ F F C+ C A+ B+ F F A+ F+ F 60% 13% 28% F F F A+ A- C+ F+ C D-
1.17 58% 40% 53% +14 -1 1.27 34% 0.2 .07 20% .41 85% .35 1.20 71% 17% 38% +7 +3 1.21 37% 0.5 .19 18% .42 67% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ F B- D+ F 42% 20% 38% B- F+ C- F F A+ F A- F+ D- B+ A D+ B 41% 9% 50% F+ C+ F F F A F F F
0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18 1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36
Feb
7		 SE Louisiana F F+ F F F 46% 23% 31% B- F B+ F F D+ C- C C- C+ D- F C+ F 34% 27% 39% C+ F F B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 50% 11% 25% -14 0 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 21% .36 75% .27 0.97 64% 45% 31% +3 -1 1.05 37% 0.8 .30 28% .17 57% .10
Feb
9		 McNeese St. C C A F D+ 40% 23% 36% C- D+ D- C D B D+ A+ B B+ D+ F B D- 60% 19% 21% F+ F+ A+ F A- B+ C B+ C+
1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32 1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21
Feb
14		 New Orleans F B- A- F D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D F+ A C- F+ F D+ F B+ C+ B- A+ A 54% 29% 17% D+ A- D+ C+ C D- B+ A+ A+
0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20 0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17
Feb
16		 Nicholls St. D D+ D+ F F 39% 35% 27% F F F A+ C- A+ A D- B+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A B F F C- F D- F
1.07 58% 35% 23% -5 -2 0.88 25% 1.4 .36 10% .43 73% .31 1.01 43% 50% 19% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.8 .38 15% .42 71% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 5.2 8.2 1.3 14.6 7th
8th 3.3 20.1 3.3 26.7 8th
9th 17.7 5.2 0.0 23.0 9th
10th 5.4 14.4 0.3 20.1 10th
11th 9.1 2.3 11.4 11th
12th 3.7 0.1 3.8 12th
Total 18.2 37.8 30.8 11.5 1.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-13 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
8-14 30.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 30.7
7-15 37.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 37.8
6-16 18.2% 18.2
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 18.2%