Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#281
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#306
Pace62.3#347
Improvement+0.2#159

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#194
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#256
Layup/Dunks+3.5#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
Freethrows-1.9#292
Improvement+1.9#56

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#336
First Shot-5.9#346
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-5.8#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#314
Freethrows+3.3#22
Improvement-1.7#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 n/a 15.3
.500 or above 6.2% 25.6% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 32.6% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 2.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.3% 11.6% 21.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 84 @UC San Diego L 60-78 7%     0 - 1 -8.2 -7.8 -0.5
  Thu, Nov 13 359 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 86%     1 - 1 -6.9 -10.2 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 277 Bellarmine L 69-74 49%     1 - 2 -11.2 +0.4 -12.3
  Wed, Nov 26 354 @The Citadel W 72-65 66%     2 - 2 -3.7 +6.0 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 29 212 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 28%     2 - 3 -18.4 -10.1 -9.1
  Tue, Dec 2 148 @North Texas L 75-77 17%     2 - 4 +2.0 +18.0 -16.3
  Sat, Dec 6 242 @New Orleans W 85-76 32%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +7.3 +15.3 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 13 268 SE Louisiana L 71-74 OT 59%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -11.7 -4.1 -7.6
  Mon, Dec 15 70 McNeese St. L 68-78 15%     3 - 6 1 - 2 -5.1 +9.1 -15.8
  Wed, Dec 17 232 @Nicholls St. L 64-79 32%     3 - 7 1 - 3 -16.4 -7.6 -9.0
  Mon, Dec 29 3 @Iowa St. L 57-89 0.1%   
  Sat, Jan 3 164 @Incarnate Word L 67-76 20%    
  Mon, Jan 5 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 136 @Stephen F. Austin L 64-75 15%    
  Mon, Jan 12 255 @Lamar L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 305 East Texas A&M W 75-70 66%    
  Mon, Jan 19 275 Northwestern St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 192 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-73 45%    
  Mon, Jan 26 164 Incarnate Word L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 215 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-71 30%    
  Mon, Feb 2 192 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Feb 7 268 @SE Louisiana L 66-70 37%    
  Mon, Feb 9 70 @McNeese St. L 62-79 6%    
  Sat, Feb 14 242 New Orleans W 75-74 55%    
  Mon, Feb 16 232 Nicholls St. W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 275 @Northwestern St. L 69-72 38%    
  Mon, Feb 23 305 @East Texas A&M L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 136 Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 33%    
  Mon, Mar 2 255 Lamar W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.2 0.7 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.5 2.8 0.2 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.2 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.6 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 13.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.7 8.3 11.5 14.1 14.9 13.5 11.3 8.2 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0%
17-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-6 16.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0
17-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 0.6% 11.4% 11.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-8 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
13-9 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-10 5.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-11 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.1
10-12 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
9-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
8-14 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
7-15 14.1% 14.1
6-16 11.5% 11.5
5-17 8.3% 8.3
4-18 4.7% 4.7
3-19 2.3% 2.3
2-20 0.7% 0.7
1-21 0.2% 0.2
0-22
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%