Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2017 - 2018 - 2019
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State Rank #6
New Haven Semi-State Rank #2
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 7th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.4%
Top 5 at State Finals 25.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 70.2%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Manchester Invitational West Noble Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conf. Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/18 9/1 9/15 9/22 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 259 283 266 252 269 294 296 254 272 239
Team Adjusted Rating 283 266 252 269 294 296 254 272 239
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Manchester Invitational West Noble Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conf. Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Reece Gibson 11 15:35 15:29 15:23 15:27 15:36 15:46 15:40 15:40 15:35 15:42
31  Wilson Whicker 11 16:08 16:39 16:28 16:04 16:16 16:33 16:04 16:07 15:57 16:04
105  Drake Kropf 11 16:38 16:59 16:46 16:33 16:34 16:49 17:08 16:59 16:53 16:31
193  Luke Bentz 10 16:58 17:13 17:01 16:51 17:04 16:58 16:59 16:43 17:20 16:51
275  Kalen Schlegel 11 17:09 16:41 17:03 17:18 17:08 17:06 17:23 17:01 17:08 17:20
301  Karsten Schlegel 9 17:13 17:03 16:51 17:19 17:30 17:29 17:14 17:03 17:10 17:12
308  Daniel Adair 9 17:14 17:06 17:10 17:27 17:08 17:47 17:28 17:33 17:07 17:07
666  Nathan Pennekamp 10 17:54 17:53 17:44 17:52 17:57 18:00
871  Logan Bauer 12 18:10 17:33 17:56 18:20 18:18
1,203  Eliot Loechner 10 18:35 18:15 18:45 18:32 18:40
Zac Shaw 9 19:13 19:04 19:19 19:41 19:10 19:06




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 8.6 272 0.4 2.0 5.4 7.9 9.5 10.0 10.3 8.9 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.7 136 4.6 26.0 21.6 18.7 14.0 8.6 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.6 80 30.6 24.7 19.3 13.4 8.5 3.6
Sectionals 100% 2.1 58 33.7 30.6 24.9 10.9



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Reece Gibson 100% 5.0 1.4 12.9 12.6 12.8 10.8 10.5 8.6 5.9 5.3 3.9 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Wilson Whicker 100% 32.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.5 93.0%
Drake Kropf 100% 91.1 0.1 14.9%
Luke Bentz 100% 129.0 0.3%
Kalen Schlegel 100% 148.9 0.0%
Karsten Schlegel 100% 155.2 0.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 157.2 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Reece Gibson 100% 1.8 29.5 25.3 20.3 12.8 6.5 3.7 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Wilson Whicker 100% 9.7 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.5 9.2 11.8 9.4 9.7 7.9 7.3 5.6 5.6 4.4 3.6 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 100.0%
Drake Kropf 100% 32.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.3 94.6%
Luke Bentz 100% 62.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 49.8%
Kalen Schlegel 100% 80.8 0.1 18.2%
Karsten Schlegel 100% 87.5 11.3%
Daniel Adair 100% 90.1 10.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Reece Gibson 100% 1.0 49.9 37.1 9.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 100.0%
Wilson Whicker 100% 5.5 1.1 6.5 13.6 18.4 20.8 14.5 9.0 5.6 4.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Drake Kropf 100% 15.3 0.4 1.7 2.5 3.2 4.4 4.9 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.3 7.5 7.5 6.3 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.1 100.0%
Luke Bentz 100% 27.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 4.2 5.2 3.8 4.5 100.0%
Kalen Schlegel 100% 37.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.4 2.2 99.7%
Karsten Schlegel 100% 41.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 99.3%
Daniel Adair 100% 41.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 98.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Reece Gibson 1.0 51.4 38.9 8.6 1.2 0.1
Wilson Whicker 4.3 1.6 14.4 22.5 33.8 17.3 6.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Drake Kropf 9.5 0.1 0.9 4.6 11.1 14.1 12.5 12.6 11.0 9.4 6.2 4.3 3.1 3.3 2.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
Luke Bentz 17.7 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.6 7.4 7.0 7.9 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.0 3.9 3.3
Kalen Schlegel 24.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 5.2 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.4
Karsten Schlegel 26.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.1 6.0 6.5
Daniel Adair 26.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.3 5.6 4.9 7.1