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State Rank #7
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 5th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.8%
Top 5 at State Finals 24.9%
Top 10 at State Finals 64.8%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational THSB State Preview BC Eagle Classic Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/18 8/25 9/1 9/8 9/8 9/15 9/22 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 267 260 319 221 397 974 307 327 251 299 325 294
Team Adjusted Rating 253 252 221 312 267 307 327 251 273 315 276
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational THSB State Preview BC Eagle Classic Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
18  Ryan Ruppert 12 15:58 15:53 15:44 16:19 16:24 16:04 16:00 16:47 15:51
49  Keagan Stuckey 11 16:19 16:19 16:41 16:24 16:32 16:36 16:33 16:21 16:21 16:14 16:12
144  Jarred Neff 11 16:49 16:45 16:35 16:55 17:05 16:49 16:54 16:44
147  Donny McArdle 10 16:50 16:40 16:38 16:32 16:53 17:04 17:02 16:37 16:42 17:03 17:05
197  Carter Cook 11 16:58 16:46 16:41 17:18 16:45 17:00 17:11 17:06 16:54 17:00
270  Austin Richards 11 17:09 17:09 17:04 16:40 17:05 17:35 17:16 16:53 17:24 16:58 17:23
288  Zach Johnson 12 17:11 17:13 17:09 17:13 17:29 17:21 17:12 17:13 17:11 16:58 17:05
295  Dominic Gery 11 17:12 17:04 17:11 17:14 18:03 17:24 18:14 17:30 17:05
582  Eduardo Santoscoy 12 17:46 17:28 17:21 18:37 17:44 17:38 17:59
693  Gage Reynolds 9 17:56 17:58 17:32 18:22
742  Logan Weaver 11 18:01 17:36 17:26 17:41 18:50 18:02 18:21
743  Aidan Sheppard 10 18:01 17:56 17:51 18:44 18:03 18:02 17:53
1,194  Chase Molden 9 18:34 18:39 18:51 18:49 18:21 18:26
1,215  Reece Crowell 12 18:35 18:32 18:58 18:45 18:21
1,300  Henry Myers 10 18:41 19:00 19:04 18:15 17:57 19:23
1,313  Jude Minich 9 18:43 18:50 18:36 19:07 18:44 18:30
1,344  Reed Burton 12 18:45 18:41 18:33 18:14 18:20 20:54 18:58
1,382  Derek Hockemeyer 11 18:48 18:43 18:34 18:57 18:49 18:23 19:36
1,412  Jack Schoff 12 18:50 20:22 18:31 18:44 18:47
1,416  Matthew Schuler 10 18:50 18:51 18:41 18:49 19:02
1,472  Ethan Baitz 9 18:54 19:58 19:31 18:52 18:29 18:41
Tyler Peters 10 19:03 19:00 19:07 19:01 19:39 18:45
Justin Englehart 10 19:04 19:02 19:01 19:16 18:42 19:17
Spencer Hoff 11 19:14 18:54 18:41 19:27 19:23 19:24
John Sheets 10 19:25 18:52 18:52 19:32 19:37 19:46
Jackson Todor 9 19:26 20:23 19:01 19:40 19:02 19:34
Andrew Conarty 11 19:27 18:50 18:40 19:46 19:44 19:45 19:28
Isaac Hunter 11 19:39 20:32 19:51 19:31 21:25 18:57 19:16




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 9.2 279 0.8 2.6 4.1 7.5 10.0 9.6 9.5 7.8 6.7 6.5 5.2 5.4 5.3 4.6 3.7 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.6 135 6.5 25.8 22.1 17.0 11.8 9.1 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.5 80 34.2 23.5 16.9 12.2 8.0 5.4
Sectionals 100% 2.1 57 38.5 29.2 20.8 11.6



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Ruppert 100% 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.0 3.8 3.6 4.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.6 98.8%
Keagan Stuckey 100% 51.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 69.7%
Jarred Neff 100% 109.7 2.6%
Donny McArdle 100% 113.1 1.5%
Carter Cook 100% 128.4 0.5%
Austin Richards 100% 148.0 0.1%
Zach Johnson 100% 150.5 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Ruppert 100% 6.3 0.6 2.7 5.0 9.2 12.3 16.3 13.2 10.4 10.4 6.1 3.3 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Keagan Stuckey 100% 14.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.8 3.5 5.3 5.4 6.7 7.4 6.6 6.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 4.8 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.2 3.2 1.9 2.4 99.9%
Jarred Neff 100% 47.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 77.8%
Donny McArdle 100% 48.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 74.2%
Carter Cook 100% 62.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 48.2%
Austin Richards 100% 79.4 0.1 20.5%
Zach Johnson 100% 84.0 0.1 15.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Ruppert 100% 3.6 1.8 8.2 26.0 24.4 18.3 11.4 5.5 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Keagan Stuckey 100% 7.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.7 11.0 16.8 14.8 11.9 10.1 6.5 5.6 4.0 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Jarred Neff 100% 20.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.0 4.3 5.2 100.0%
Donny McArdle 100% 21.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.4 5.4 5.0 6.0 4.2 100.0%
Carter Cook 100% 28.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.7 4.1 4.9 100.0%
Austin Richards 100% 37.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.7 99.6%
Zach Johnson 100% 39.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 99.5%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Ruppert 3.0 2.7 10.6 37.2 32.2 14.5 2.4 0.5 0.2
Keagan Stuckey 5.6 0.1 0.4 7.3 20.7 36.1 17.5 8.5 3.4 3.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jarred Neff 13.3 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.1 6.1 7.0 9.1 10.0 9.4 8.9 7.4 7.4 5.9 5.5 4.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.1
Donny McArdle 13.7 0.2 1.2 3.9 4.9 7.4 7.0 9.1 9.7 9.1 8.9 6.4 6.5 5.0 4.4 4.4 2.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 1.5
Carter Cook 18.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.8 4.5 5.4 5.9 6.2 7.4 7.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.0 4.5 3.7
Austin Richards 23.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.7 3.3 4.0 6.0 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.9 6.9
Zach Johnson 24.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.7 3.6 3.8 4.5 5.3 4.6 6.6 7.4 7.3