All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
| Season Rating | |
Norwell Invitational |
Huntington North Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Apache Invitational |
Three Rivers Conf. |
Marion Sectional |
Marion Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/12 |
8/18 |
8/25 |
9/1 |
9/18 |
9/29 |
10/6 |
10/13 |
10/20 |
10/27 |
| Team Rating |
392 |
589 |
517 |
542 |
462 |
478 |
450 |
424 |
391 |
357 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
480 |
414 |
455 |
462 |
478 |
450 |
424 |
391 |
357 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Norwell Invitational |
Huntington North Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Apache Invitational |
Three Rivers Conf. |
Marion Sectional |
Marion Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 65 |
Dereck Vogel |
11 |
16:24 |
16:38 |
16:26 |
16:33 |
16:23 |
16:38 |
16:43 |
16:44 |
16:33 |
16:12 |
16:37 |
| 153 |
Zack Reed |
10 |
16:51 |
16:26 |
16:35 |
16:58 |
16:39 |
16:50 |
17:08 |
16:48 |
16:56 |
16:48 |
|
| 215 |
Koby Prater |
12 |
17:00 |
|
|
|
17:04 |
17:23 |
17:05 |
17:25 |
17:00 |
16:48 |
|
| 313 |
Aaron Nickerson |
12 |
17:15 |
18:22 |
17:50 |
17:46 |
18:01 |
17:42 |
17:22 |
17:14 |
17:04 |
17:02 |
|
| 336 |
Blakely Stevens |
11 |
17:18 |
17:30 |
17:09 |
17:20 |
17:30 |
17:23 |
17:20 |
17:05 |
17:17 |
17:25 |
|
| 882 |
Caleb Callahan |
11 |
18:11 |
18:18 |
18:17 |
18:05 |
18:05 |
18:22 |
18:27 |
17:58 |
18:13 |
18:03 |
|
| 1,028 |
Jarrett Wilson |
10 |
18:22 |
|
18:32 |
18:36 |
18:02 |
18:08 |
|
18:05 |
18:16 |
19:25 |
|
|
Ethan Kocher |
9 |
19:18 |
19:11 |
18:59 |
19:11 |
18:41 |
19:10 |
19:55 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
8.3 |
237 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
8.3 |
16.1 |
22.9 |
19.1 |
10.1 |
6.3 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.2 |
49 |
83.1 |
13.8 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.1 |
39 |
93.6 |
6.0 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Dereck Vogel |
59.5% |
52.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
59.5% |
59.5% |
| Zack Reed |
1.4% |
77.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.4% |
1.4% |
| Koby Prater |
0.1% |
66.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Dereck Vogel |
100% |
18.4 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Zack Reed |
100% |
49.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Koby Prater |
100% |
65.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Aaron Nickerson |
100% |
91.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.7% |
| Blakely Stevens |
100% |
95.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.5% |
| Caleb Callahan |
100% |
152.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.4% |
| Jarrett Wilson |
100% |
159.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.7% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Dereck Vogel |
100% |
1.7 |
0.1 |
67.7 |
19.7 |
8.4 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Zack Reed |
100% |
6.1 |
|
0.1 |
6.7 |
11.5 |
15.6 |
15.1 |
13.4 |
10.4 |
7.9 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Koby Prater |
100% |
9.4 |
|
|
0.7 |
2.1 |
4.6 |
7.2 |
9.9 |
10.6 |
10.6 |
10.2 |
9.7 |
8.4 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Aaron Nickerson |
100% |
15.3 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
6.8 |
8.3 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
6.1 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Blakely Stevens |
100% |
16.6 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
7.2 |
5.4 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Caleb Callahan |
100% |
43.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Jarrett Wilson |
100% |
49.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Dereck Vogel |
1.7 |
0.1 |
68.3 |
22.4 |
7.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Zack Reed |
4.9 |
|
0.2 |
8.5 |
17.1 |
25.9 |
18.5 |
12.8 |
8.8 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Koby Prater |
7.2 |
|
0.0 |
0.9 |
3.6 |
9.6 |
16.7 |
16.3 |
16.8 |
15.9 |
12.1 |
4.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Aaron Nickerson |
10.6 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
4.1 |
6.3 |
9.3 |
15.3 |
21.8 |
19.0 |
10.1 |
6.6 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Blakely Stevens |
11.1 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
7.1 |
12.1 |
20.0 |
23.3 |
13.0 |
8.3 |
4.6 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Caleb Callahan |
24.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
7.4 |
8.5 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
| Jarrett Wilson |
28.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
|
