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State Rank #5
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 7.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 53.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 88.9%
Advance to State Finals 99.9%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Warsaw Tiger Invitational Penn Invitational THSB State Preview Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional
Date 8/24 8/27 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/12
Team Rating 220 256 733 256 184 652 199 201 248
Team Adjusted Rating 256 220 256 184 220 199 201 248
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Warsaw Tiger Invitational Penn Invitational THSB State Preview Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional
26  Jarred Neff 12 16:09 16:03 16:10 15:48 16:12 16:18 16:18
27  Keagan Stuckey 12 16:09 16:30 16:14 16:02 16:12 16:01 16:12
47  Donny McArdle 11 16:20 16:23 16:24 16:24 16:02 16:18 16:25
85  Ethan Baitz 10 16:36 16:57 16:43 16:29 16:30 16:22 16:33
163  Carter Cook 12 16:53 16:51 17:08 16:45 16:52 16:49 17:05
393  Logan Weaver 12 17:24 17:10 17:38 17:29 17:25 17:29 17:21 17:12
432  Aidan Sheppard 11 17:29 17:38 17:32 17:48 17:28 17:26 17:17 17:18 17:28
458  Dominic Gery 12 17:32 17:30 17:52
499  Derek Hockemeyer 12 17:36 18:26 17:49 17:16 17:36 17:40 17:20 17:22
665  Chase Molden 10 17:51 18:05 18:04 17:46 17:46 17:47 17:42
682  Tyler Neff 9 17:52 18:05 18:03 17:49 17:50 17:57 17:48 17:40
750  Jude Minich 10 17:58 18:33 17:58 17:51 18:06 17:58 17:48 17:48
863  Tyler Peters 11 18:08 18:11 18:08 17:55 18:10 18:27 17:56
1,041  Henry Myers 11 18:22 18:58 19:17 18:23 18:29 18:00 18:21 17:46
1,242  Ben Johnson 10 18:36 18:47 18:10 18:30 18:25 18:35 18:57 19:03
1,279  Anthony Gery 9 18:39 18:52 18:40 18:47 19:34 18:28 18:26 18:19
1,409  Grayson Welch 9 18:48 18:37 18:47 18:44 18:43 18:49 18:51 19:16
1,431  Ashton Hackman 11 18:49 19:17 18:58 18:53 18:44 18:40 18:34 18:52
1,438  John Sheets 11 18:50 18:45 18:49 18:43 18:45 18:58 19:05
1,441  Spencer Hoff 12 18:50 18:44 18:20 19:21 18:25 18:29 19:21 19:28
1,487  Justin Englehart 11 18:53 19:00 18:59 18:54 18:49 19:00 18:57
Jackson Todor 10 19:05 19:22 19:08 19:16 19:13 18:56 18:47 19:10
Carson Heckman 9 19:06 19:03 18:53 19:11 19:25
Sam Ratkos 9 19:11 21:01 18:59 19:12 18:51
Isaac Hunter 12 19:19 19:38 19:41 19:26 19:00 19:07 19:03 19:23
Austin Richards 12 19:20 18:52 18:57 19:30 19:23 19:28 19:52 19:42
Max Falloon 10 19:33 18:55 19:06 20:05 19:20 20:11 20:01
Matthew Schuler 11 19:33 19:17 23:22 18:51 19:07 19:11 21:08 24:22




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.9% 5.8 217 7.0 11.1 11.9 11.7 11.6 9.8 8.9 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.2 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1
Semi-State 100% 2.4 92 17.1 31.7 44.9 5.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.8 51 24.5 73.8 1.5 0.3
Sectionals 100% 1.8 39 24.4 75.2 0.5



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jarred Neff 100.0% 29.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.8 50.0% 96.8%
Keagan Stuckey 100.0% 30.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.1 50.0% 96.0%
Donny McArdle 99.9% 48.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0% 83.0%
Ethan Baitz 99.9% 82.6 0.1 0.1 0.0% 34.5%
Carter Cook 99.9% 122.0 0.0% 3.9%
Logan Weaver 99.9% 178.7 0.0% 0.0%
Aidan Sheppard 99.9% 183.5 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jarred Neff 100% 7.9 0.2 1.0 4.7 8.5 9.8 10.5 7.9 8.3 8.0 6.1 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 100.0%
Keagan Stuckey 100% 8.3 0.1 0.9 4.1 7.9 8.5 9.3 9.9 7.6 6.9 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.6 100.0%
Donny McArdle 100% 15.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.5 3.8 5.3 4.4 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.6 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.4 100.0%
Ethan Baitz 100% 28.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.1 99.8%
Carter Cook 100% 47.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 92.0%
Logan Weaver 100% 92.5 12.5%
Aidan Sheppard 100% 99.3 6.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jarred Neff 100% 4.6 1.1 6.7 16.0 17.3 14.4 14.5 10.5 7.7 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Keagan Stuckey 100% 4.8 0.8 6.4 12.7 17.3 16.6 13.8 9.7 7.5 6.4 3.3 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Donny McArdle 100% 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.7 7.3 10.0 11.5 13.2 12.0 10.9 9.6 7.5 5.5 3.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Ethan Baitz 100% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.9 4.6 5.8 6.6 9.1 10.4 12.7 12.6 9.4 6.9 5.5 3.3 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.7 100.0%
Carter Cook 100% 20.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.7 4.6 6.1 8.4 8.5 7.9 8.5 6.9 7.1 6.4 4.1 3.9 100.0%
Logan Weaver 100% 40.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 95.2%
Aidan Sheppard 100% 44.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 89.6%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jarred Neff 3.1 1.0 21.8 24.5 19.8 14.7 9.1 4.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
Keagan Stuckey 3.4 1.0 17.6 23.4 21.2 16.3 10.0 5.9 2.9 1.5 0.4
Donny McArdle 5.9 0.1 1.6 3.3 11.3 15.8 19.4 19.3 14.3 7.4 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ethan Baitz 9.5 0.1 1.0 3.8 7.9 13.9 15.5 17.3 16.6 11.8 5.5 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Carter Cook 13.5 0.4 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.5 13.0 16.6 13.3 11.2 7.7 6.5 4.9 3.6 3.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.3
Logan Weaver 26.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.2 3.6 4.4 4.3 5.2 6.7 6.9
Aidan Sheppard 28.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.3 4.2 5.3