Northridge
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #9
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #1
Elkhart Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 9th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.6%
Top 10 at State Finals 58.4%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Minutemen Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Elkhart Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/15 8/21 8/28 8/31 9/11 9/14 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 272 369 273 923 307 618 286 319 582 351 332 317 245 275
Team Adjusted Rating 339 273 322 307 419 286 319 422 351 332 317 245 275
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Minutemen Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Elkhart Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Jack Moore 12 15:38 16:10 15:32 15:46 15:16 15:40 16:04 15:37 15:35 15:38 15:37
23  Jaxon Miller 11 16:02 16:15 16:25 16:31 16:50 16:27 16:11 16:48 16:25 16:19 16:09 15:53 16:15
125  David Gingerich 10 16:45 17:28 16:58 16:58 17:24 16:55 17:29 17:06 16:50 17:01 16:58 16:36 16:42
219  Will Knox 11 17:05 18:06 17:43 17:16 17:50 18:19 17:27 18:07 17:28 17:25 17:21 17:12 16:58
250  Nathan Perez 12 17:11 17:29 16:56 17:15 17:01 17:02 17:24 17:23 17:14 17:14 17:02 17:18
263  Jon Spicher 11 17:15 17:28 17:02 17:14 17:44 17:05 17:05 17:54 17:22 17:23 17:26 17:06 17:12
283  Trevin Schlabaugh 10 17:19 17:07 16:52 16:56 17:04 17:37 18:30
386  Nolan Bales 11 17:32 17:17 16:58 18:34 18:44 17:48 17:35 17:22 17:29
664  Joe Keyser 9 18:02 18:13 17:45 18:06
840  Josiah Dyck 12 18:19 18:25 18:43 18:28 18:24 18:10 18:12 18:49 18:08 18:02
853  Austin Abelseth 11 18:20 18:50 17:58 18:22
893  Matt Friesner 12 18:23 19:00 18:25 18:17 18:21 18:27 18:09 18:28 18:18
956  Marc Hernandez 9 18:28 18:24 19:46 18:04 18:37 18:18
1,073  David Miller 10 18:39 18:39
1,204  Brock Reschly 11 18:47 18:06 19:01 18:15 18:46 19:01 18:38 19:26 18:47
1,239  Brendan Gleim 12 18:49 18:47 19:13 19:03 18:46 18:52 18:48 18:37
1,305  Max Estep 10 18:55 19:07 18:28 18:19 18:48 18:50 19:14 19:09 19:04
1,355  Quinton Long 12 19:00 19:06 18:57 18:55 19:16 18:55 18:53 19:05 18:57
Aiden Bemis 11 19:02 19:03
Carter Adams 10 19:13 19:00 19:25 19:20 18:52 19:52 19:04 19:16 19:18
Colin Mack 9 19:17 19:21 19:05 19:33 19:18 20:06 19:15 18:48
Max Rickly 10 19:38 19:31 19:41 19:32 20:52 19:29 19:33
Josue Gomez 10 19:40 19:30 19:21 19:26 19:36 19:27 19:42 22:55 19:46




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 10.2 302 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 9.3 14.5 16.2 15.2 13.2 9.9 7.5 5.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 3.6 142 0.1 2.9 46.4 38.0 9.7 2.3 0.5 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.4 54 58.5 38.2 3.3 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.4 39 61.0 38.9 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Moore 100% 6.9 0.4 1.5 4.2 8.0 12.9 13.2 11.2 9.1 7.8 5.6 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Jaxon Miller 100% 25.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.0 98.9%
David Gingerich 100% 108.8 9.2%
Will Knox 100% 139.8 0.1%
Nathan Perez 100% 148.2 0.0%
Jon Spicher 100% 152.8 0.0%
Nolan Bales 100% 172.3 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Moore 100% 1.9 2.7 53.0 17.7 10.9 6.4 3.4 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Jaxon Miller 100% 9.5 0.2 4.1 5.6 6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4 7.7 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.4 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 100.0%
David Gingerich 100% 36.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 100.0%
Will Knox 100% 56.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nathan Perez 100% 63.5 99.9%
Jon Spicher 100% 67.7 99.8%
Nolan Bales 100% 88.8 91.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Moore 100% 1.0 73.4 14.0 11.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Jaxon Miller 100% 3.5 0.1 16.4 14.8 38.9 17.9 7.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
David Gingerich 100% 10.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.0 7.9 11.1 14.3 15.2 12.8 10.7 8.0 6.0 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Will Knox 100% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.2 8.5 10.2 10.8 11.5 10.3 9.4 7.1 6.0 3.9 2.5 1.6 100.0%
Nathan Perez 100% 19.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.9 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.1 11.2 10.7 9.3 8.3 6.8 4.1 100.0%
Jon Spicher 100% 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.4 7.1 8.9 9.3 10.5 10.8 10.7 9.7 6.6 100.0%
Nolan Bales 100% 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.1 10.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Moore 1.0 73.5 14.4 11.2 0.8 0.1
Jaxon Miller 3.4 0.2 15.8 15.4 43.0 18.5 6.9 0.2 0.0
David Gingerich 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.2 34.8 21.1 16.8 10.8 6.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Will Knox 11.8 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.5 10.1 14.5 18.4 18.0 14.2 8.5 3.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nathan Perez 13.4 0.0 1.0 2.2 4.3 7.4 11.6 16.3 18.9 18.5 12.2 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jon Spicher 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 18.2 21.6 19.0 6.8 3.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nolan Bales 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.2 12.0 25.5 15.6 14.8 8.8 5.5 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.3