Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #19
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #2
Chesterton Regional Rank #2
New Prairie Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 17th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 7.7%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating Penn Invitational THSB State Preview Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 363 404 363 438 438 819 352 382 343 378 359
Team Adjusted Rating 364 363 375 358 363 352 368 343 378 359
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Penn Invitational THSB State Preview Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
83  Jimmy Dillabaugh 11 16:31 16:37 16:29 16:26 16:42 16:36 16:21 16:26 16:30
89  Mason Nobles 9 16:32 16:55 16:47 16:52 16:28 16:40 16:34 16:42 16:25
106  Joel Bryant 12 16:37 16:39 16:42 16:27 16:38 16:41 16:33 16:33 16:37
273  Sam Sienkowski 9 17:17 17:23 17:30 17:32 17:13 17:50 17:07 17:12 17:21 17:10
297  Nathaniel Malchow 11 17:21 17:06 17:16 17:12 17:31 17:11 17:19 17:31 17:30
339  Nathan Nova 11 17:27 17:14 17:15 17:30 17:12 17:32 17:28 17:33 17:38
361  Riley Clark 11 17:29 17:12 17:20 17:25 17:41 17:27 17:38
371  Thomas Krueger 9 17:30 17:10 17:11 17:17 17:30 17:37 17:26 18:01
436  Owen Lashenik 10 17:39 17:37 17:39 17:39 17:44 17:37
472  Caleb Marconi 12 17:43 17:42 17:19 18:01
618  Jack Buinicki 11 17:57 18:18 17:55 17:55 17:52
693  Max Franco 12 18:05 19:11 17:58 17:48 17:58 18:12
694  Zeke Bloom 11 18:06 18:23 17:48 18:02 18:03 18:13
773  Patrick Brogan 12 18:13 18:25 18:10 18:05 18:17
795  Zion Williams 12 18:15 18:17 17:56 18:00 18:30 18:28
896  Charlie Moye 12 18:23 18:50 18:11 18:08 18:34
910  Brady Cavanaugh 10 18:24 18:50 18:27 18:02 18:29
1,133  Brecken Adams 11 18:43 19:48 17:56 18:06 19:17
1,144  Lucas Palmer 11 18:44 18:39 18:55 18:34 18:42 18:48
1,189  Gavin Ellis 12 18:46 18:20 17:58 18:53 19:47
1,223  Gabe Sterling 10 18:48 19:04 18:25 19:02
1,259  Will Young 11 18:51 19:01 18:59 18:39
1,343  Jayden Villatoro 10 18:59 19:19 18:57 18:49
Sam Carpenter 9 19:19 19:55 18:28 19:39 19:13
Zach Cioe 12 19:23 19:40 18:24 19:32 19:37




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 15.6 400 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.9 7.0 9.4 11.6 12.7 12.8 10.4 7.8 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3
Semi-State 100% 1.6 94 64.5 21.2 8.5 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.6 59 56.2 30.2 10.7 2.8 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.4 44 65.2 25.4 9.4 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jimmy Dillabaugh 100% 81.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 92.6%
Mason Nobles 100% 85.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 90.2%
Joel Bryant 100% 94.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.1%
Sam Sienkowski 100% 155.0 0.9%
Nathaniel Malchow 100% 159.6 0.3%
Nathan Nova 100% 166.9 0.1%
Thomas Krueger 100% 170.3 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jimmy Dillabaugh 100% 8.6 0.1 2.8 4.6 5.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.3 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Mason Nobles 100% 9.5 0.0 1.8 3.7 5.2 5.8 7.0 7.8 7.8 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.3 5.9 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 100.0%
Joel Bryant 100% 12.0 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.4 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 100.0%
Sam Sienkowski 100% 42.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 99.7%
Nathaniel Malchow 100% 46.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 99.4%
Nathan Nova 100% 54.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 97.9%
Thomas Krueger 100% 59.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.9%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jimmy Dillabaugh 100% 5.5 0.1 4.6 9.7 13.7 15.2 14.4 13.0 10.9 7.4 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mason Nobles 100% 6.0 0.1 3.3 7.5 10.9 13.8 14.6 14.1 11.8 8.9 6.1 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Joel Bryant 100% 7.3 0.0 1.1 3.2 6.1 9.2 11.8 14.4 13.9 12.8 9.7 7.3 4.6 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sam Sienkowski 100% 18.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.0 9.3 11.9 11.5 9.8 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.7 3.2 100.0%
Nathaniel Malchow 100% 20.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.8 9.1 9.9 9.9 8.8 8.1 6.0 5.6 4.8 100.0%
Nathan Nova 100% 23.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.1 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.0 6.3 100.0%
Thomas Krueger 100% 25.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.5 5.2 6.4 7.2 7.8 7.3 6.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jimmy Dillabaugh 3.7 0.1 8.3 23.4 27.1 19.9 12.0 5.2 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mason Nobles 4.0 0.0 6.4 18.6 24.6 22.2 15.6 6.7 3.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1
Joel Bryant 5.0 0.0 2.1 8.5 16.2 23.9 23.9 12.0 7.4 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sam Sienkowski 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 5.0 7.7 10.1 12.8 12.3 10.9 8.0 6.7 5.1 4.3 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.8
Nathaniel Malchow 15.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 3.0 4.5 6.5 9.7 11.0 11.1 9.5 8.3 7.1 5.9 4.7 4.1 3.3 2.6 1.9 1.6
Nathan Nova 18.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.9 6.0 7.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 7.7 7.2 6.5 5.9 5.1 4.7 3.7
Thomas Krueger 19.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 2.0 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.5