Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #2
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 33.7%
Top 5 at State Finals 99.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/21 9/28 10/12
Team Rating 115 129 126 786 97 960 159 150
Team Adjusted Rating 89 110 141 97 115 159 123
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional
Zoe Duffus 11 18:30 18:19 18:17 18:46 18:43 18:26
12  Rayna Fruchey 12 18:43 18:33 18:42 18:29 19:33 18:52
28  Mallory Clements 12 19:00 18:40 18:54 18:56 19:29 19:06
33  Ashlyn Minton 11 19:07 18:48 19:12 19:13 19:05 19:12
69  Brooke Hansen 10 19:28 20:06 18:57 19:24
204  Shelby Christman 11 20:21 20:36 19:52 20:27 20:43 20:08
207  Madelyn Ruch 10 20:23 20:28 20:15 20:15 20:41 20:11
567  Elizabeth LaLonde 12 21:36 21:26 21:31 21:40 21:41 22:02
652  Paige Hout 9 21:50 21:42 21:36 22:10 22:06 22:04 21:29
904  Ava Leimkuhler 10 22:23 22:36 22:53 22:02 22:31 22:12
1,070  Aubrey Barb 9 22:44 22:21 22:22 22:47 23:02 23:22
1,342  Tori Gloyd 9 23:16 23:10 22:18 23:23 23:20 24:21
1,368  Jill Yoder 9 23:20 23:25 23:29 22:54 23:29
1,410  Isabella Hilaski 9 23:27 25:09 23:03 27:14 22:37 22:54
Gwyn Sunderlin 10 23:52 24:20 24:46 23:26 23:29




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 2.1 112 33.7 36.0 22.7 6.3 1.1 0.2 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.1 50 92.9 7.2
Regionals 100% 1.0 29 100.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 8.8 1.2 2.8 5.2 6.5 8.4 9.2 10.1 8.0 7.5 6.5 5.6 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 14.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 2.9 2.9 3.8 4.9 5.6 5.7 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.8 2.1 3.3 1.9 2.3 2.7 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 28.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 99.1%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 36.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 96.3%
Brooke Hansen 100% 63.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 68.8%
Shelby Christman 100% 136.4 0.6%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 139.7 0.5%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 2.3 0.5 42.2 21.2 12.9 8.1 6.1 3.5 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 4.9 0.1 8.0 16.3 14.4 12.9 10.0 9.4 7.6 6.9 4.9 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 9.8 0.5 1.6 2.3 6.1 6.3 8.5 8.9 9.5 8.5 7.6 6.9 7.2 6.1 5.4 3.9 3.4 3.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 12.4 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.6 3.5 4.6 4.3 6.3 8.0 8.8 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.4 5.7 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.1 2.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 20.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.8 5.2 6.1 6.5 8.2 7.4 8.4 8.0 6.4 6.4 5.4 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 48.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 93.6%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 49.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 92.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.9 0.3 57.8 27.8 9.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 3.3 0.1 11.2 30.1 30.8 14.8 9.1 2.8 1.2 0.2 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 5.5 0.6 4.0 11.4 22.6 21.4 21.3 15.5 3.1 0.4 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 6.4 0.1 0.9 5.3 13.5 19.4 24.2 28.3 6.6 1.5 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 8.6 0.1 0.2 1.9 6.5 11.9 50.5 16.8 6.5 3.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 19.6 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.3 6.0 6.8 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.4 4.6 5.1 100.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 20.4 0.6 1.6 3.5 3.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 6.8 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.6 4.9 4.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 1.9 0.4 55.6 27.4 11.8 3.6 1.1 0.2
Rayna Fruchey 3.3 0.1 11.8 30.6 27.9 14.5 10.7 3.5 1.1 0.1
Mallory Clements 5.5 0.8 3.8 13.7 22.1 20.6 22.1 14.5 2.2 0.3 0.1
Ashlyn Minton 6.5 0.1 1.0 5.3 11.7 20.0 23.1 31.7 6.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Brooke Hansen 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.6 14.5 59.6 10.7 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2
Shelby Christman 16.8 2.5 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.9 6.3 8.1 7.2 6.0 6.0 3.9 3.2 2.8
Madelyn Ruch 17.4 1.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 6.9 7.6 7.4 6.8 8.1 7.8 6.1 7.6 5.6 4.3 4.3 2.6