Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #29
New Haven Semi-State Rank #7
West Noble Regional Rank #4
Northrop Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 25.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Culver Academies Invitational (Open) Summit Athletic Conf. Northrop Sectional
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12
Team Rating 401 404 406 383 967 359 449 438 427
Team Adjusted Rating 404 406 383 381 349 413 438 427
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Culver Academies Invitational (Open) Summit Athletic Conf. Northrop Sectional
11  Ellie Cates 12 18:41 18:41 18:42 18:38 18:38 18:32 19:04 18:40
163  Keller Whicker 9 20:10 19:57 20:22 19:58 19:47 20:28 20:19 20:22
219  Abby Mays 11 20:25 20:09 20:27 20:24 20:09 20:33 20:37 20:34
413  Callie Hoover 11 21:07 21:41 20:56 21:16 20:41 21:04 21:14 21:24
467  Madelyn Borchelt 10 21:15 21:32 21:19 20:56 20:56 21:16 21:19
538  Rhaya Kaschinske 11 21:31 21:23 21:54 21:38 21:28 21:26 21:52 21:21 21:14
613  Gretchen Witmer 11 21:43 21:20 21:31 21:55 22:01 21:40 22:07
619  Katelyn Nix 11 21:44 21:29 21:28 21:47 23:09 21:57 21:25 21:32
1,056  Ariez Schweyer 10 22:43 22:28 23:04 22:20
1,186  Megan Bordner 12 22:58 22:35 23:02 23:48 22:55
1,283  Grace Pennekamp 12 23:10 23:25 22:51 23:27 23:21 22:34
Mary Pennekamp 12 23:46 23:42 23:41 23:58 24:15 24:35 23:43 22:57




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 25.8% 19.3 447 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.8
Semi-State 100.0% 7.3 235 0.3 0.9 4.4 20.3 36.6 20.6 11.5 5.3 0.4 0.1
Regionals 100.0% 3.9 109 0.7 7.5 90.9 0.9
Sectionals 100% 3.9 105 0.6 7.9 89.9 1.6 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 3.6 3.8 5.3 6.3 5.6 6.2 5.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.5 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.7 100.0% 100.0%
Keller Whicker 26.4% 107.9 0.9% 2.8%
Abby Mays 25.8% 129.2 0.1% 0.5%
Callie Hoover 25.8% 175.3 0.0% 0.0%
Madelyn Borchelt 25.8% 180.9 0.0% 0.0%
Rhaya Kaschinske 25.8% 190.5 0.0% 0.0%
Gretchen Witmer 25.8% 195.1 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 4.2 0.1 16.7 15.7 15.1 10.9 8.6 7.6 6.4 4.8 4.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Keller Whicker 100.0% 39.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.0% 98.3%
Abby Mays 100.0% 52.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0% 89.7%
Callie Hoover 100.0% 95.4 0.0% 14.1%
Madelyn Borchelt 100.0% 102.5 0.0% 6.4%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100.0% 114.8 0.0% 0.6%
Gretchen Witmer 100.0% 122.7 0.0% 0.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 100% 3.0 0.1 24.9 24.9 21.9 11.7 8.1 4.9 2.7 1.0 100.0% 100.0%
Keller Whicker 100% 15.2 0.2 0.9 4.6 7.3 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.4 4.6 3.4 4.4 3.3 3.4 2.2 2.6 100.0% 100.0%
Abby Mays 100% 21.9 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.6 5.0 4.3 4.5 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.4 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.9 100.0% 100.0%
Callie Hoover 100.0% 39.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0% 86.8%
Madelyn Borchelt 100.0% 42.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0% 72.3%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100.0% 48.1 0.0% 37.3%
Gretchen Witmer 100.0% 51.2 0.0% 14.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellie Cates 2.9 26.3 25.3 19.7 12.2 8.9 4.4 2.6 0.8
Keller Whicker 13.7 0.1 0.3 1.3 9.3 10.9 10.3 11.4 9.9 8.3 7.9 7.9 5.8 4.5 3.8 3.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.6
Abby Mays 18.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.9 4.8 6.7 7.5 8.3 7.9 6.9 8.0 8.1 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.3 3.8
Callie Hoover 32.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.1 2.9 3.5
Madelyn Borchelt 35.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.3
Rhaya Kaschinske 41.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Gretchen Witmer 45.4