Penn
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
Switch to All-time Team Page

State Rank #13
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #1
Riley Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 12th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 3.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 32.7%
Advance to State Finals 99.9%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Warsaw Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Concord Invitational New Prairie Invitational West Noble Invitational
Date 8/25 8/29 9/5 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/19
Team Rating 300 322 295 248 960 365 303 1,204
Team Adjusted Rating 304 295 248 300 311 303 300
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Warsaw Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Concord Invitational New Prairie Invitational West Noble Invitational
104  Nicole Marshall 12 19:52 20:06 19:46 19:35 19:52
110  Morgan Gannon 11 19:53 20:01 19:50 19:36 19:53
113  Julie Smith 11 19:53 19:52 19:54 20:06 19:53
129  Mary Eubank 9 19:58 19:46 20:10 19:34 19:59 20:10
205  Ellie Stabnik 9 20:20 20:20 20:12 20:23 20:50 20:20
217  Ava Gillis 12 20:23 20:35 20:26 19:58 20:22 20:12
252  Haley Makowski 12 20:33 21:25 21:07 20:33 20:23
319  Nikki Jerzak 11 20:47 20:28 20:53 20:52 20:30 20:42
382  Mackenzie Holland 11 21:01 20:36 21:05 21:02 21:01 21:37
434  Reagan Hoke 12 21:10 20:17 21:15 21:16 21:07 21:14
636  Kaylie Hanyzewski 9 21:44 21:50 21:31 21:46 21:37 21:44
664  Yazmine Juarez 9 21:50 22:46 21:44 21:44 22:20 21:21
915  Megan Ungerecht 12 22:31 22:49 22:21 21:59 22:42 22:21
920  Linden Ransbottom 10 22:33 23:07 22:28 22:34 22:25
973  Molly Chapla 10 22:39 22:41 23:16 22:07 22:46 22:25
1,027  Hannah Cussen 12 22:46 22:46 22:47 23:26 22:52
1,086  Kassidy Pentelow 9 22:54 23:10 22:34 22:22 22:59 23:00
1,163  Katie Cassbon 12 23:03 23:02 23:08 24:31 23:09 22:26
1,269  Abby Stevens 10 23:19 23:11 23:18 23:27 24:12 23:03
1,272  Teagan Oldfather 9 23:19 25:11 23:03 23:15 23:17 23:14
1,287  Morgan Collins 10 23:21 25:31 24:20 23:21 23:04
Sia Grewal 9 23:39 24:12 23:11 22:57 27:09
Rachael Gindling 9 24:07 24:46 23:07 24:08
Paige Horsley 10 27:37 21:12 34:04




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.9% 12.9 358 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.6 4.6 6.4 6.7 7.0 8.1 8.5 7.1 7.7 8.4 6.1 5.1 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.5
Semi-State 100% 3.6 137 5.1 50.3 27.7 14.7 2.2 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.0 26 100.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicole Marshall 99.9% 95.4 0.0% 31.2%
Morgan Gannon 99.9% 98.1 0.0% 29.2%
Julie Smith 99.9% 98.1 0.0% 27.1%
Mary Eubank 99.9% 104.9 0.0% 17.6%
Ellie Stabnik 99.9% 138.0 0.0% 1.5%
Ava Gillis 99.9% 141.8 0.0% 1.1%
Haley Makowski 99.9% 154.1 0.0% 0.2%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicole Marshall 100% 26.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.0 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.5 100.0%
Morgan Gannon 100% 27.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.6 4.4 5.6 5.4 4.4 100.0%
Julie Smith 100% 27.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.6 3.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.1 5.9 100.0%
Mary Eubank 100% 30.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.1 3.8 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 47.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 100.0%
Ava Gillis 100% 50.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 100.0%
Haley Makowski 100% 58.6 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicole Marshall 100% 3.1 11.5 18.1 18.3 17.7 13.1 10.2 4.9 4.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Morgan Gannon 100% 3.5 7.8 16.5 17.6 17.1 14.4 10.8 7.7 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Julie Smith 100% 3.6 7.9 13.9 18.3 16.3 15.4 12.1 8.3 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Mary Eubank 100% 4.6 4.3 9.0 12.5 15.1 16.2 14.9 11.4 8.0 5.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 9.2 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 5.0 8.9 13.4 15.5 15.9 13.9 10.3 6.8 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Ava Gillis 100% 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.1 10.6 13.9 16.3 16.7 12.6 7.8 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Haley Makowski 100% 11.8 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.4 6.6 10.1 12.6 17.7 16.8 13.8 7.6 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nicole Marshall 1.8 29.4 26.0 19.7 12.5 7.7 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Morgan Gannon 2.1 24.3 22.5 22.0 17.1 8.5 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.2
Julie Smith 2.2 22.4 23.9 21.5 18.0 9.1 3.5 1.1 0.7 0.1
Mary Eubank 3.1 11.9 16.0 21.0 23.0 15.5 7.9 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
Ellie Stabnik 6.4 0.4 0.5 1.7 5.0 15.6 19.3 20.8 19.9 10.9 4.3 1.8 0.1
Ava Gillis 6.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 9.5 17.2 21.1 20.2 16.4 8.0 2.5 0.1 0.1
Haley Makowski 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.9 6.6 12.6 19.3 25.4 21.4 9.2 1.2 0.3 0.1