Penn
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #16
New Haven Semi-State Rank #4
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #1
Riley Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 13th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 3.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 36.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Culver Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 306 339 421 234 1,132 330 389 312 351 433 330 287 298
Team Adjusted Rating 339 320 234 306 330 312 312 351 323 330 287 298
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Culver Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
18  Julie Smith 12 18:51 19:19 18:33 18:47 18:55 18:51 18:34 19:03 19:06 19:22 18:46 18:52
43  Mary Eubank 10 19:17 19:37 19:26 19:06 19:32 19:46 19:46 19:49 19:36 19:06 19:22
104  Julia Economou 11 19:48 20:14 20:06 19:31 19:39 19:42 19:57 19:53 19:43 19:49 19:48
133  Ellie Stabnik 10 19:57 20:10 19:50 20:26 20:09 20:09 20:20 20:12 20:06 19:52 19:49
513  Nikki Jerzak 12 21:33 21:14 21:50 20:46 21:32 21:12 21:23 22:08 21:29 22:35 21:29 21:35
549  Kaylie Hanyzewski 10 21:38 21:58 21:37 21:34 21:44 22:13 21:40 21:30 22:36 21:50 21:55 21:29
551  Amelia Martin 11 21:38 21:20 22:02
552  Aubrey Morgan 9 21:38 23:12 23:17 22:45 22:28 21:42 21:49 21:49 21:31 21:27 21:27 21:30
753  Linden Ransbottom 11 22:11 22:39 23:20 21:56 21:52 22:06
755  Morgan Collins 11 22:11 24:10 22:02 22:40 21:32 22:03
804  Maycie Cummings 10 22:18 22:07 21:56 22:24 21:45 22:23 22:49
812  Abby Stevens 11 22:19 23:36 22:49 22:24 22:06 22:21 21:53 22:16 22:16
1,117  Sia Grewal 10 22:56 22:27 22:31 22:34 23:09 23:02 23:28 22:59
1,163  Noralee Moock 10 23:02 23:13 22:47 22:43 22:33 23:10 23:27 23:10
1,170  Mackenzie Holland 12 23:03 23:03
1,196  Kassidy Pentelow 10 23:06 22:55 23:01 22:46 24:52 23:08 23:11 22:51
1,222  Yazmine Juarez 10 23:10 25:34 22:39 22:39 23:27 23:12
1,334  Sobia Ahmed 11 23:23 24:34 23:52 23:34 23:11 22:49 23:18
Jasmin Pecina 11 23:51 23:26 24:03 24:09 23:18 24:10
Gwyneth Lannon 11 23:56 23:28 23:56 23:35 23:57 23:31 24:26 24:25
Luna Liu 9 23:59 23:58 24:24 23:38 24:27 24:02 23:42 24:01
Amelia Little 9 24:19 24:34 24:54 24:17 23:45 24:09 24:43 24:15




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 11.7 320 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.5 6.7 8.5 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.2 9.5 7.9 5.7 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.9 129 3.6 10.6 20.1 32.0 24.7 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 36 86.9 13.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 23 100.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julie Smith 100% 21.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.7 4.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 100.0%
Mary Eubank 100% 44.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 98.9%
Julia Economou 100% 94.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.5%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 109.6 43.9%
Nikki Jerzak 100% 186.2 0.0%
Kaylie Hanyzewski 100% 189.1 0.0%
Aubrey Morgan 100% 189.3 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julie Smith 100% 4.5 1.2 10.2 27.5 20.4 14.6 9.2 6.2 4.1 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mary Eubank 100% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.1 8.0 8.8 9.7 9.9 9.2 8.2 7.1 6.1 4.7 4.1 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Julia Economou 100% 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.5 4.5 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 28.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.5 100.0%
Nikki Jerzak 100% 97.4 90.3%
Kaylie Hanyzewski 100% 102.3 84.6%
Aubrey Morgan 100% 102.5 84.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julie Smith 100% 1.0 93.4 5.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Mary Eubank 100% 1.7 3.5 66.7 17.5 8.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Julia Economou 100% 4.9 0.7 14.0 16.0 21.1 19.4 14.3 8.2 3.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 6.3 0.2 4.1 8.5 13.0 17.7 20.4 17.1 10.3 5.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nikki Jerzak 100% 25.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.1 4.6 5.8 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.4 100.0%
Kaylie Hanyzewski 100% 26.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.9 7.5 100.0%
Aubrey Morgan 100% 27.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.6 5.8 6.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julie Smith 1.0 95.8 4.1 0.1
Mary Eubank 1.5 4.0 89.7 5.9 0.4 0.0
Julia Economou 3.1 0.0 1.5 45.5 36.1 16.1 0.8 0.1
Ellie Stabnik 3.9 0.3 15.9 35.7 44.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nikki Jerzak 13.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.9 7.2 8.8 11.9 15.3 16.4 13.6 9.6 6.0 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kaylie Hanyzewski 13.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.9 6.2 9.1 13.2 15.6 16.0 14.0 10.2 5.2 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Aubrey Morgan 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.9 5.9 9.1 12.5 15.8 16.4 14.6 10.2 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0