Lake Central
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #22
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #3
Crown Point Regional Rank #1
Highland Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 24th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.3%
Advance to State Finals 95.6%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Crown Point Invitational Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison (WL) Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Highland Sectional Crown Point Regional
Date 8/15 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 364 345 324 281 331 369 381 710 361 328 459
Team Adjusted Rating 345 324 281 331 369 381 364 361 328 430
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Crown Point Invitational Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison (WL) Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Highland Sectional Crown Point Regional
142  Sydney Churilla 10 20:04 20:05 20:04 20:01 20:18 20:18 20:20 20:04 19:37 20:31
189  Mackenzie Smith 9 20:14 20:43 20:21 20:02 20:21 20:14 20:01 20:17 19:52
209  Taylor Kosiek 12 20:20 20:10 20:36 19:58 19:48 20:01 20:13 21:02 20:28 20:44
221  Carly Davis 12 20:23 20:14 20:33 20:02 20:39 20:30 20:33 20:11 19:54 20:47
249  Nicole Vollrath 10 20:31 20:20 21:03 20:00 20:16 20:45 20:49 20:02 20:42 20:35
258  Addison Roth 10 20:33 20:15 19:18 19:27 20:00 20:58 20:56 21:37 21:41 20:49
317  Rachel Narjes 12 20:49 20:32 20:38 20:57 20:45 21:05 21:05 20:46
320  Isabelle Martisek 10 20:49 20:37 20:17 20:58 20:42 20:58 20:52 20:52 21:18
361  Krista Kulacz 12 20:58 20:50 20:39 20:19 20:50 20:35 21:17 21:39 21:29
509  Marie Weber 10 21:26 21:36 21:15 21:45 21:19 21:24 21:23
630  Amanda Spanier 11 21:45 22:06 21:57 21:17 21:22 21:37 21:09 22:01 22:36
695  Natalie Kransky 11 21:55 22:35 21:35 22:34 21:35 21:15 22:26 21:53 22:10 22:02
883  Samantha Lazowski 11 22:19 21:50 22:37 21:51 22:51 22:21 22:09 22:19 22:07
958  Tara Schassburger 9 22:28 22:35 22:35 22:18 22:57 22:04 22:15
974  Ava Giovane 10 22:30 22:19 22:14 22:29 22:36 22:26 23:06 22:20 22:26
980  Braiden Cooper 9 22:31 23:55 23:23 22:46 22:05 22:27 22:01 21:52
1,025  Sarah Solis 9 22:36 24:05 23:09 22:23 22:52 22:26 22:03 22:18
1,174  Kylie Carroll 12 22:54 22:29 22:19 23:09 22:33 23:05 23:17 23:17 23:21
1,346  Peyton Staley 12 23:15 23:00 23:22 23:15 22:58 23:36 24:31 22:21
Arianna Nash 10 23:37 23:25 23:42 23:52 23:31 23:50 23:05 24:37 23:34
Nora Markley 11 23:37 24:12 23:28 23:58 23:51 23:35 24:00 22:59 23:01
Essey Gonzalez 9 24:04 24:03 24:35 24:33 24:07 23:56 24:08 23:32 23:47
Ingrid Owczarzak 12 24:07 24:25 23:44 24:14 23:23 25:19
Hailey Wisz 10 24:08 25:33 24:30 24:23 23:41 23:53 23:04 24:27
Khaila Freitag 12 24:13 23:22 24:38 24:03 24:42 24:56 23:54




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 95.6% 20.5 472 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.2 3.3 5.0 5.7 8.2 9.3 11.1 12.7 15.6 16.6
Semi-State 100% 3.7 149 2.0 7.8 45.7 23.2 11.1 5.8 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 34 91.5 8.4 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 15 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Churilla 95.7% 113.9 1.4% 25.9%
Mackenzie Smith 95.6% 130.7 0.0% 9.8%
Taylor Kosiek 95.6% 139.0 0.0% 5.3%
Carly Davis 95.6% 142.4 0.0% 3.5%
Nicole Vollrath 95.6% 151.1 0.0% 1.3%
Addison Roth 95.6% 153.2 0.0% 0.8%
Rachel Narjes 95.6% 166.3 0.0% 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Churilla 100% 26.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 100.0%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 35.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 100.0%
Taylor Kosiek 100% 41.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.8 100.0%
Carly Davis 100% 44.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 100.0%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Addison Roth 100% 53.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Rachel Narjes 100% 68.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Churilla 100% 2.9 31.0 20.8 16.2 11.5 8.1 5.4 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 5.2 8.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 12.3 11.4 8.6 6.8 5.3 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Taylor Kosiek 100% 6.7 3.0 6.0 8.9 11.3 12.8 12.1 11.2 9.5 8.0 5.7 3.9 3.0 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Carly Davis 100% 7.6 1.6 4.7 6.5 9.2 10.1 11.5 10.7 10.8 8.9 7.9 5.8 4.7 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 9.9 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.2 10.3 11.1 11.3 9.1 8.8 6.3 4.7 3.0 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Addison Roth 100% 10.3 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.3 7.1 7.9 9.6 10.7 11.6 10.4 8.8 7.0 4.7 3.8 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Rachel Narjes 100% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.4 5.7 8.1 9.3 11.0 11.2 10.7 8.9 7.1 5.4 4.2 3.4 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Churilla 1.0 65.2 21.3 8.4 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
Mackenzie Smith 1.9 19.6 34.0 22.2 13.5 6.7 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Taylor Kosiek 2.8 7.8 20.8 26.5 21.1 14.2 7.3 1.9 0.4 0.0
Carly Davis 3.3 4.9 15.0 21.7 24.7 18.4 10.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Nicole Vollrath 4.6 1.1 5.0 11.3 17.8 25.9 24.7 10.2 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
Addison Roth 5.0 1.1 3.2 8.2 14.6 23.7 29.7 14.4 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Rachel Narjes 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.2 14.5 43.1 21.1 7.8 3.7 1.7 0.1 0.0