Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#167
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#92
Pace76.3#32
Improvement-1.9#330

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#174
First Shot-1.1#200
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks-4.2#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#91
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-0.7#262

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#174
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#144
Layups/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#347
Freethrows+1.1#117
Improvement-1.2#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 19.3% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 89.0% 93.0% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 86.8% 80.3%
Conference Champion 22.2% 24.8% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.6%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round17.0% 19.1% 13.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 412 - 518 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 193   @ Air Force W 62-55 44%     1 - 0 +8.4 +1.1 +8.2
  Nov 09, 2023 159   @ UC Santa Barbara W 82-76 37%     2 - 0 +9.2 +5.5 +3.5
  Nov 17, 2023 198   @ California Baptist W 66-63 45%     3 - 0 +4.2 -2.4 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2023 331   Cal Poly W 73-57 84%     4 - 0 +5.1 +0.4 +5.4
  Nov 19, 2023 278   St. Thomas L 70-76 72%     4 - 1 -12.3 -1.7 -11.0
  Nov 28, 2023 187   Portland W 81-77 66%    
  Dec 02, 2023 64   @ Washington St. L 68-80 14%    
  Dec 15, 2023 197   @ San Diego L 76-77 45%    
  Dec 18, 2023 166   @ Fresno St. L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 28, 2023 201   @ Eastern Washington L 81-82 46%    
  Dec 30, 2023 349   @ Idaho W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 06, 2024 301   @ UMKC W 73-69 66%    
  Jan 11, 2024 269   Idaho St. W 75-66 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 124   Weber St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 18, 2024 248   @ Northern Arizona W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 20, 2024 282   @ Northern Colorado W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 25, 2024 195   Montana W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 229   Montana St. W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 03, 2024 270   Sacramento St. W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 05, 2024 201   Eastern Washington W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 08, 2024 124   @ Weber St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 269   @ Idaho St. W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 15, 2024 282   Northern Colorado W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 17, 2024 248   Northern Arizona W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 22, 2024 229   @ Montana St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 195   @ Montana L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 270   @ Sacramento St. W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 04, 2024 349   Idaho W 81-65 91%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 5.9 5.9 4.0 1.7 0.5 22.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 6.5 7.3 4.1 1.3 0.2 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.8 2.0 0.2 16.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.2 1.0 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.6 0.4 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.4 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.4 6.5 9.1 11.6 13.5 14.3 12.4 10.2 7.1 4.2 1.7 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 95.7% 4.0    3.6 0.4
15-3 82.3% 5.9    4.6 1.2 0.0
14-4 57.7% 5.9    3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 25.0% 3.1    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 7.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 14.7 5.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 60.6% 56.2% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10.1%
17-1 1.7% 55.5% 55.2% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.8%
16-2 4.2% 45.3% 45.3% 12.9 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3
15-3 7.1% 38.6% 38.6% 13.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 4.4
14-4 10.2% 29.2% 29.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.2
13-5 12.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 9.9
12-6 14.3% 17.0% 17.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 11.8
11-7 13.5% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 12.0
10-8 11.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 10.6
9-9 9.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 8.6
8-10 6.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
7-11 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 5.9 3.7 1.1 82.7 0.0%