Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#260
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#283
Pace61.6#342
Improvement+3.9#37

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#230
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#74
Layup/Dunks+2.9#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#288
Freethrows-2.2#318
Improvement+2.6#49

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#265
First Shot-5.6#343
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#20
Layups/Dunks-10.0#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#12
Freethrows-1.0#253
Improvement+1.3#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.8% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 24.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.8% 2.6%
First Round1.7% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 93 - 10
Quad 48 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 166   @ St. Thomas L 53-54 24%     0 - 1 +1.5 -10.4 +11.7
  Nov 12, 2023 13   @ Iowa St. L 55-86 2%     0 - 2 -12.2 -7.2 -4.2
  Nov 20, 2023 273   The Citadel L 61-62 52%     0 - 3 -6.6 -4.9 -1.8
  Nov 21, 2023 294   @ Campbell W 69-55 48%     1 - 3 +9.5 +5.1 +6.9
  Nov 28, 2023 219   @ Pepperdine L 62-77 33%     1 - 4 -15.4 -8.5 -8.1
  Dec 02, 2023 356   Lindenwood W 76-70 89%     2 - 4 -12.3 -2.1 -10.0
  Dec 05, 2023 178   @ Fresno St. L 67-79 26%     2 - 5 -10.3 -3.7 -6.9
  Dec 09, 2023 237   @ Southern Utah L 74-82 35%     2 - 6 -9.0 -1.4 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2023 137   @ Oregon St. L 57-76 18%     2 - 7 -14.4 -5.6 -11.3
  Dec 28, 2023 252   Montana St. L 66-74 59%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -15.3 -4.3 -11.6
  Dec 30, 2023 165   Montana L 68-76 42%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -10.8 -3.3 -8.3
  Jan 03, 2024 278   @ Denver L 82-95 OT 43%     2 - 10 -16.1 -4.1 -10.9
  Jan 06, 2024 264   Nebraska Omaha W 63-62 61%     3 - 10 -6.9 -4.4 -2.3
  Jan 11, 2024 250   @ Portland St. W 69-63 38%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +4.2 +3.4 +1.4
  Jan 13, 2024 320   @ Sacramento St. L 64-66 57%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -8.8 +4.1 -13.3
  Jan 18, 2024 311   Idaho W 64-59 72%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -6.0 -5.1 -0.2
  Jan 20, 2024 136   Eastern Washington L 67-79 34%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -12.8 -5.8 -7.6
  Jan 22, 2024 252   @ Montana St. L 70-77 38%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -8.9 +3.5 -12.9
  Jan 27, 2024 155   @ Weber St. W 74-64 21%     6 - 13 3 - 5 +13.4 +5.7 +8.2
  Feb 01, 2024 202   @ Northern Colorado L 86-91 2OT 30%     6 - 14 3 - 6 -4.7 +0.4 -4.4
  Feb 03, 2024 299   @ Northern Arizona W 81-79 49%     7 - 14 4 - 6 -2.8 +8.5 -11.2
  Feb 08, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 68-40 75%     8 - 14 5 - 6 +15.8 +3.3 +18.0
  Feb 10, 2024 250   Portland St. W 68-65 58%     9 - 14 6 - 6 -4.2 +1.8 -5.6
  Feb 15, 2024 136   @ Eastern Washington L 82-88 18%     9 - 15 6 - 7 -1.4 +11.8 -13.4
  Feb 17, 2024 311   @ Idaho L 53-55 52%     9 - 16 6 - 8 -7.6 -17.6 +9.8
  Feb 24, 2024 155   Weber St. W 80-62 39%     10 - 16 7 - 8 +16.0 +10.3 +6.8
  Feb 29, 2024 299   Northern Arizona L 88-92 2OT 69%     10 - 17 7 - 9 -14.2 -2.4 -11.2
  Mar 02, 2024 202   Northern Colorado W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 04, 2024 165   @ Montana L 67-75 23%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 12.7 11.5 24.2 5th
6th 2.3 24.3 1.1 27.7 6th
7th 19.3 11.9 31.2 7th
8th 16.2 0.8 16.9 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 37.8 49.7 12.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 12.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.7 11.9
8-10 49.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 1.6 48.1
7-11 37.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.9 36.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.5% 5.4% 16.0 5.4
Lose Out 37.8% 2.4% 16.0 2.4