Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#299
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#236
Pace70.2#132
Improvement+1.3#131

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#283
First Shot-1.8#226
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#316
Layup/Dunks-1.1#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#97
Freethrows-3.1#349
Improvement+3.7#27

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#274
First Shot-3.8#305
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks-5.0#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows-2.0#305
Improvement-2.4#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.3% 45.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 45.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 14.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 412 - 615 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 1   @ Connecticut L 52-95 1%     0 - 1 -19.5 -10.6 -9.8
  Nov 12, 2023 67   @ Grand Canyon L 55-89 5%     0 - 2 -23.1 -14.1 -8.1
  Nov 15, 2023 124   @ Seattle W 62-60 11%     1 - 2 +7.7 -9.0 +16.6
  Nov 17, 2023 171   Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-77 25%     1 - 3 -10.5 -13.6 +4.3
  Nov 18, 2023 358   VMI W 78-69 79%     2 - 3 -7.1 -2.3 -5.2
  Nov 21, 2023 164   @ Hawaii L 61-70 17%     2 - 4 -6.3 -11.4 +5.4
  Nov 29, 2023 177   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-70 19%     2 - 5 -9.1 -12.3 +2.8
  Dec 02, 2023 342   Pacific W 78-58 78%     3 - 5 +4.5 +6.6 +0.4
  Dec 06, 2023 203   @ Abilene Christian W 78-76 23%     4 - 5 +2.3 +1.2 +1.0
  Dec 09, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word W 76-75 60%     5 - 5 -9.1 -1.6 -7.5
  Dec 16, 2023 237   Southern Utah W 76-74 46%     6 - 5 -4.4 -4.8 +0.3
  Dec 20, 2023 69   @ San Francisco L 51-91 5%     6 - 6 -29.3 -14.1 -16.5
  Dec 30, 2023 202   @ Northern Colorado L 77-92 23%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -14.7 +5.4 -20.8
  Jan 03, 2024 264   @ Nebraska Omaha L 55-81 31%     6 - 8 -28.5 -14.9 -16.2
  Jan 06, 2024 245   North Dakota W 74-73 47%     7 - 8 -5.8 -1.2 -4.6
  Jan 11, 2024 252   @ Montana St. L 50-79 29%     7 - 9 0 - 2 -30.9 -21.4 -9.9
  Jan 13, 2024 165   @ Montana L 47-90 17%     7 - 10 0 - 3 -40.4 -21.7 -25.0
  Jan 18, 2024 250   Portland St. W 84-65 49%     8 - 10 1 - 3 +11.8 +4.3 +6.3
  Jan 20, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 70-61 68%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -3.2 -5.3 +2.4
  Jan 25, 2024 311   @ Idaho W 75-60 43%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +9.4 +3.5 +6.7
  Jan 27, 2024 136   @ Eastern Washington L 70-85 13%     10 - 11 3 - 4 -10.4 -5.0 -5.1
  Feb 01, 2024 155   Weber St. L 70-72 30%     10 - 12 3 - 5 -4.0 -2.3 -1.8
  Feb 03, 2024 260   Idaho St. L 79-81 51%     10 - 13 3 - 6 -9.7 +4.0 -13.8
  Feb 08, 2024 165   Montana L 66-94 32%     10 - 14 3 - 7 -30.8 -11.7 -19.4
  Feb 10, 2024 252   Montana St. W 76-71 49%     11 - 14 4 - 7 -2.3 -5.1 +2.4
  Feb 15, 2024 320   @ Sacramento St. W 73-58 47%     12 - 14 5 - 7 +8.2 +13.8 -2.3
  Feb 17, 2024 250   @ Portland St. L 68-83 29%     12 - 15 5 - 8 -16.8 -5.3 -11.1
  Feb 22, 2024 136   Eastern Washington W 78-71 26%     13 - 15 6 - 8 +6.2 +2.8 +3.5
  Feb 24, 2024 311   Idaho L 76-86 63%     13 - 16 6 - 9 -21.0 -5.2 -15.5
  Feb 29, 2024 260   @ Idaho St. W 92-88 2OT 31%     14 - 16 7 - 9 +1.7 +4.0 -2.8
  Mar 02, 2024 155   @ Weber St. L 65-76 14%    
  Mar 04, 2024 202   Northern Colorado L 77-79 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 10.3 5.7 16.0 5th
6th 2.3 20.6 0.6 23.5 6th
7th 20.9 11.1 31.9 7th
8th 27.2 1.3 28.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 50.4 43.2 6.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 6.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.2
8-10 43.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 42.7
7-11 50.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.5 49.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 2.0% 15.9 0.3 1.8
Lose Out 50.4% 1.0% 16.0 1.0