Montana
Big Sky
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#166
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#203
Pace63.6#319
Improvement+2.8#27

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot+0.2#176
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#157
Layup/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#306
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot-4.0#301
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#14
Layups/Dunks+0.3#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement+2.7#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 21.1% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 72.5% 85.6% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 88.7% 81.4%
Conference Champion 22.1% 28.4% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four1.9% 1.2% 2.2%
First Round16.0% 20.6% 13.7%
Second Round1.5% 2.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 49   @ Oregon L 61-75 12%     0 - 1 -1.1 -4.7 +2.9
  Nov 12, 2023 211   UC Davis W 78-65 69%     1 - 1 +7.8 +10.5 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2023 223   North Dakota St. L 69-78 71%     1 - 2 -14.7 -3.6 -11.8
  Nov 24, 2023 3   @ Houston L 44-79 3%     1 - 3 -12.5 -8.9 -8.6
  Nov 29, 2023 43   @ Nevada L 66-77 10%     1 - 4 +2.7 -2.1 +5.2
  Dec 02, 2023 146   San Jose St. W 75-58 57%     2 - 4 +15.1 +3.2 +12.1
  Dec 17, 2023 146   @ San Jose St. L 63-67 34%    
  Dec 19, 2023 211   @ UC Davis L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 28, 2023 117   @ Weber St. L 59-65 28%    
  Dec 30, 2023 274   @ Idaho St. W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 03, 2024 223   @ North Dakota St. L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 06, 2024 289   South Dakota W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 11, 2024 270   Northern Colorado W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 13, 2024 241   Northern Arizona W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 20, 2024 227   @ Montana St. W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 22, 2024 117   Weber St. L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 161   @ Portland St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 27, 2024 269   @ Sacramento St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 01, 2024 335   Idaho W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 217   Eastern Washington W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 08, 2024 241   @ Northern Arizona W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 10, 2024 270   @ Northern Colorado W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 17, 2024 227   Montana St. W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 22, 2024 269   Sacramento St. W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 24, 2024 161   Portland St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 29, 2024 217   @ Eastern Washington L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 335   @ Idaho W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 04, 2024 274   Idaho St. W 70-61 79%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 3.8 6.2 5.7 3.6 1.2 0.2 22.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 6.3 6.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.7 5.6 2.0 0.2 17.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.8 3.9 0.8 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.2 0.5 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.4 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.5 12.3 13.6 13.9 12.7 10.0 6.8 3.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.6% 3.6    3.3 0.3
15-3 83.3% 5.7    4.3 1.2 0.1
14-4 62.0% 6.2    3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 30.3% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 8.9% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.2 6.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 78.9% 78.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
17-1 1.2% 62.3% 62.3% 12.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.7% 45.7% 45.7% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0
15-3 6.8% 36.5% 36.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.3
14-4 10.0% 27.8% 27.8% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 7.2
13-5 12.7% 23.3% 23.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 9.7
12-6 13.9% 16.6% 16.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 11.6
11-7 13.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 12.1
10-8 12.3% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 11.1
9-9 9.5% 7.3% 7.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 8.8
8-10 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.3
7-11 4.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 4.4
6-12 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.9 4.3 3.3 83.0 0.0%