Idaho
Big Sky
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#311
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#302
Pace63.7#307
Improvement-0.8#220

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-3.8#285
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#209
Layup/Dunks-3.3#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#85
Freethrows-2.5#329
Improvement-1.5#267

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#297
First Shot-4.7#325
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks+0.0#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#320
Freethrows-1.1#262
Improvement+0.7#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 0.0% 7.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 37   @ Washington St. L 59-84 3%     0 - 1 -11.0 -4.1 -7.8
  Nov 09, 2023 236   Cal St. Northridge L 73-76 42%     0 - 2 -9.4 -4.0 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2023 124   @ Seattle L 55-92 10%     0 - 3 -31.3 -9.1 -24.7
  Nov 24, 2023 114   UC San Diego W 73-70 OT 13%     1 - 3 +6.6 -5.2 +11.6
  Nov 29, 2023 278   Denver L 65-67 51%     1 - 4 -10.5 -11.1 +0.4
  Dec 02, 2023 335   Cal Poly W 85-70 72%     2 - 4 +0.6 +13.4 -11.9
  Dec 05, 2023 342   Pacific W 83-53 75%     3 - 4 +14.5 -0.3 +14.0
  Dec 09, 2023 277   @ Utah Tech W 63-62 31%     4 - 4 -2.1 +2.5 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 64-82 8%     4 - 5 -10.3 -5.8 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2023 212   @ UC Riverside L 67-82 22%     4 - 6 -15.1 -1.2 -14.9
  Dec 28, 2023 320   Sacramento St. W 61-58 65%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -9.2 -9.4 +0.6
  Dec 30, 2023 250   Portland St. L 72-77 46%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -12.2 -3.1 -9.1
  Jan 03, 2024 166   St. Thomas L 67-75 30%     5 - 8 -10.9 -0.8 -11.0
  Jan 13, 2024 136   Eastern Washington L 58-79 24%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -21.8 -18.2 -3.6
  Jan 18, 2024 260   @ Idaho St. L 59-64 28%     5 - 10 1 - 3 -7.3 -7.2 -0.8
  Jan 20, 2024 155   @ Weber St. L 65-88 14%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -19.6 -1.2 -20.4
  Jan 25, 2024 299   Northern Arizona L 60-75 57%     5 - 12 1 - 5 -25.2 -14.3 -11.7
  Jan 27, 2024 202   Northern Colorado L 68-89 38%     5 - 13 1 - 6 -26.1 -5.5 -22.1
  Feb 01, 2024 165   @ Montana L 70-73 15%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -0.4 +2.4 -3.1
  Feb 03, 2024 252   @ Montana St. W 81-75 27%     6 - 14 2 - 7 +4.1 +9.1 -5.0
  Feb 05, 2024 320   @ Sacramento St. W 61-45 44%     7 - 14 3 - 7 +9.2 +2.5 +11.1
  Feb 10, 2024 136   @ Eastern Washington L 79-87 12%     7 - 15 3 - 8 -3.4 +10.1 -13.9
  Feb 15, 2024 155   Weber St. L 69-70 27%     7 - 16 3 - 9 -3.0 +2.4 -5.5
  Feb 17, 2024 260   Idaho St. W 55-53 48%     8 - 16 4 - 9 -5.7 -17.2 +11.7
  Feb 22, 2024 202   @ Northern Colorado L 62-76 21%     8 - 17 4 - 10 -13.7 -8.2 -6.6
  Feb 24, 2024 299   @ Northern Arizona W 86-76 37%     9 - 17 5 - 10 +5.2 +7.8 -3.0
  Feb 29, 2024 252   Montana St. L 48-62 46%     9 - 18 5 - 11 -21.3 -19.0 -4.5
  Mar 02, 2024 165   Montana L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 04, 2024 250   @ Portland St. L 66-73 26%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.8 0.8 6th
7th 2.8 2.8 7th
8th 3.6 3.6 8th
9th 51.4 40.0 1.4 92.9 9th
10th 10th
Total 51.4 40.0 8.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-12 40.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 39.7
5-13 51.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 51.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 1.0% 16.0 1.0
Lose Out 51.4% 0.6% 16.0 0.6