Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#320
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#326
Pace60.5#351
Improvement-0.5#210

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#315
First Shot-5.3#315
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks-4.2#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+0.4#146
Improvement-1.5#271

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#289
First Shot-3.6#296
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#209
Layups/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#278
Freethrows-1.2#272
Improvement+1.1#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 43 - 116 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 44   @ Nevada L 63-77 3%     0 - 1 -0.6 -1.5 +0.5
  Nov 10, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 73-91 6%     0 - 2 -10.3 +3.0 -13.3
  Nov 17, 2023 131   @ Tulane L 57-92 9%     0 - 3 -30.0 -18.2 -10.3
  Nov 20, 2023 217   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-75 27%     0 - 4 -7.0 +2.4 -9.6
  Nov 22, 2023 221   Austin Peay L 71-74 27%     0 - 5 -6.1 -6.6 +0.5
  Nov 26, 2023 181   @ UC Davis W 69-63 15%     1 - 5 +7.5 -1.0 +8.4
  Dec 02, 2023 161   @ Long Beach St. L 73-83 13%     1 - 6 -7.2 -1.2 -5.6
  Dec 09, 2023 223   Cal St. Fullerton L 60-62 36%     1 - 7 -7.9 -8.8 +0.8
  Dec 18, 2023 114   UC San Diego L 52-83 16%     1 - 8 -30.1 -20.1 -11.4
  Dec 28, 2023 311   @ Idaho L 58-61 35%     1 - 9 0 - 1 -8.6 -10.4 +1.4
  Dec 30, 2023 136   @ Eastern Washington L 61-87 10%     1 - 10 0 - 2 -21.4 -11.6 -10.2
  Jan 03, 2024 234   UMKC W 67-64 38%     2 - 10 -3.3 -3.4 +0.3
  Jan 06, 2024 166   @ St. Thomas L 50-63 13%     2 - 11 -10.5 -13.0 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2024 155   Weber St. W 71-69 24%     3 - 11 1 - 2 +0.0 +6.2 -6.0
  Jan 13, 2024 260   Idaho St. W 66-64 43%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -5.7 +4.5 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2024 202   @ Northern Colorado L 75-77 18%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -1.7 +9.8 -11.7
  Jan 20, 2024 299   @ Northern Arizona L 61-70 32%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -13.8 -11.5 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2024 252   Montana St. L 62-70 42%     4 - 14 2 - 5 -15.3 -5.9 -10.4
  Jan 27, 2024 165   Montana L 67-70 26%     4 - 15 2 - 6 -5.8 -1.1 -5.1
  Feb 03, 2024 250   @ Portland St. L 51-58 23%     4 - 16 2 - 7 -8.8 -6.5 -4.3
  Feb 05, 2024 311   Idaho L 45-61 56%     4 - 17 2 - 8 -27.0 -20.8 -10.6
  Feb 08, 2024 260   @ Idaho St. L 40-68 25%     4 - 18 2 - 9 -30.3 -26.8 -9.0
  Feb 10, 2024 155   @ Weber St. L 53-58 12%     4 - 19 2 - 10 -1.6 -6.6 +3.8
  Feb 15, 2024 299   Northern Arizona L 58-73 53%     4 - 20 2 - 11 -25.2 -6.8 -21.7
  Feb 17, 2024 202   Northern Colorado L 75-80 33%     4 - 21 2 - 12 -10.1 +2.7 -13.2
  Feb 22, 2024 165   @ Montana L 61-68 13%     4 - 22 2 - 13 -4.4 -1.6 -4.3
  Feb 24, 2024 252   @ Montana St. W 66-63 23%     5 - 22 3 - 13 +1.1 -6.5 +7.6
  Mar 02, 2024 250   Portland St. L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 04, 2024 136   Eastern Washington L 67-76 22%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 4.8 4.8 9th
10th 45.4 44.8 4.9 95.2 10th
Total 45.4 44.8 9.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 44.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 44.6
3-15 45.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 45.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.8% 0.5% 16.0 0.5
Lose Out 45.4% 0.3% 16.0 0.3