Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#117
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#111
Pace57.9#359
Improvement-0.5#221

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#166
First Shot+1.7#128
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#257
Layup/Dunks-3.8#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows+2.9#42
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#99
First Shot+3.0#85
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#217
Layups/Dunks+4.2#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement-0.4#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 43.2% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 91.8% 96.0% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 96.0% 92.6%
Conference Champion 48.5% 53.5% 43.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.1%
First Round37.8% 42.9% 32.3%
Second Round6.1% 7.3% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 35 - 57 - 7
Quad 412 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 59   @ St. Mary's W 61-57 21%     1 - 0 +15.4 +0.6 +15.1
  Nov 17, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb L 61-62 64%     1 - 1 -1.6 +3.9 -5.7
  Nov 18, 2023 91   Yale W 75-65 OT 41%     2 - 1 +15.5 +1.6 +13.5
  Nov 19, 2023 127   Colgate L 55-57 52%     2 - 2 +0.5 +0.4 -0.5
  Dec 05, 2023 181   @ Utah Valley W 63-62 52%    
  Dec 09, 2023 332   Cal Poly W 70-53 94%    
  Dec 13, 2023 43   @ Nevada L 59-70 16%    
  Dec 16, 2023 163   @ Wyoming W 63-62 50%    
  Dec 28, 2023 166   Montana W 65-59 72%    
  Dec 30, 2023 227   Montana St. W 65-56 80%    
  Jan 03, 2024 134   South Dakota St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 06, 2024 159   @ Oral Roberts L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 11, 2024 269   @ Sacramento St. W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 13, 2024 161   @ Portland St. L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 18, 2024 217   Eastern Washington W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 335   Idaho W 72-55 94%    
  Jan 22, 2024 166   @ Montana W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 274   Idaho St. W 67-55 86%    
  Feb 01, 2024 241   @ Northern Arizona W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 270   @ Northern Colorado W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 08, 2024 161   Portland St. W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 10, 2024 269   Sacramento St. W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 15, 2024 335   @ Idaho W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 17, 2024 217   @ Eastern Washington W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 274   @ Idaho St. W 64-58 71%    
  Feb 29, 2024 270   Northern Colorado W 72-60 85%    
  Mar 02, 2024 241   Northern Arizona W 68-58 81%    
  Mar 04, 2024 227   @ Montana St. W 62-59 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 5.6 9.9 12.2 10.7 6.0 2.1 48.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.7 7.2 4.3 1.4 0.2 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.2 1.6 0.2 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.2 6.6 9.7 12.4 14.4 14.4 13.6 10.9 6.0 2.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 6.0    6.0 0.0
16-2 98.4% 10.7    10.1 0.6
15-3 89.9% 12.2    9.9 2.2 0.1
14-4 69.0% 9.9    6.2 3.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 38.9% 5.6    2.2 2.6 0.8 0.1
12-6 14.1% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.5% 48.5 36.7 9.3 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 79.8% 76.7% 3.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 13.2%
17-1 6.0% 66.9% 65.9% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 2.0 2.9%
16-2 10.9% 60.7% 60.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.3 0.3%
15-3 13.6% 52.6% 52.6% 12.8 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.4
14-4 14.4% 43.1% 43.1% 13.2 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.2
13-5 14.4% 34.5% 34.5% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 9.5
12-6 12.4% 28.5% 28.5% 14.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 8.9
11-7 9.7% 21.9% 21.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 7.6
10-8 6.6% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 5.6
9-9 4.2% 10.7% 10.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.8
8-10 2.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4
7-11 1.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.1 1.4
6-12 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.1% 38.0% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.9 9.7 12.2 7.9 3.4 1.3 61.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.4 5.8 5.8 10.6 11.5 10.6 29.8 1.9 19.2 4.8