College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#107
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#116
Pace76.4#38
Improvement+5.4#2

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#109
First Shot+1.4#139
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#136
Layup/Dunks-0.1#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#95
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement+4.4#3

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot-2.2#252
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#7
Layups/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement+1.0#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 23.1% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 97.7% 98.8% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 97.1% 94.7%
Conference Champion 28.3% 29.8% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round21.3% 22.9% 16.3%
Second Round3.8% 4.2% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 168   Iona W 71-69 76%     1 - 0 -1.2 -6.5 +5.3
  Nov 10, 2023 85   Duquesne L 72-90 42%     1 - 1 -11.9 -6.6 -3.6
  Nov 16, 2023 110   Vermont L 64-73 51%     1 - 2 -5.1 -5.1 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2023 163   Wyoming L 60-67 65%     1 - 3 -6.9 -10.7 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2023 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 80-72 79%     2 - 3 +3.4 +0.4 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2023 108   @ Kent St. W 84-78 39%     3 - 3 +13.0 +13.6 -0.7
  Dec 01, 2023 61   Liberty W 76-67 34%     4 - 3 +17.2 +9.5 +8.1
  Dec 02, 2023 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-90 9%     4 - 4 +2.5 +5.7 -2.6
  Dec 10, 2023 173   Rhode Island W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 14, 2023 264   The Citadel W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 18, 2023 300   Coastal Carolina W 85-70 91%    
  Dec 21, 2023 96   Saint Joseph's W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 04, 2024 100   @ Hofstra L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 06, 2024 261   @ Stony Brook W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 11, 2024 297   Elon W 86-72 91%    
  Jan 13, 2024 239   Monmouth W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 18, 2024 219   Towson W 71-62 81%    
  Jan 20, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 25, 2024 327   @ Hampton W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 27, 2024 317   @ Campbell W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 01, 2024 116   UNC Wilmington W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 315   @ William & Mary W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 08, 2024 361   N.C. A&T W 93-69 98%    
  Feb 10, 2024 124   Drexel W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 15, 2024 210   @ Northeastern W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 19, 2024 315   William & Mary W 85-69 91%    
  Feb 22, 2024 156   @ Delaware W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 24, 2024 219   @ Towson W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 29, 2024 317   Campbell W 77-61 91%    
  Mar 02, 2024 100   Hofstra W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.2 9.2 7.6 4.1 0.9 28.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 6.4 8.4 4.3 0.7 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.1 7.5 2.5 0.2 16.4 3rd
4th 0.7 3.6 5.6 2.2 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.4 7.1 11.0 13.7 17.3 16.2 13.7 8.3 4.1 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 4.1    3.9 0.2
16-2 91.5% 7.6    6.1 1.4 0.0
15-3 67.0% 9.2    5.0 3.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 32.1% 5.2    1.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.9% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 17.5 8.1 2.1 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 71.7% 50.6% 21.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 42.8%
17-1 4.1% 45.9% 42.9% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.2 5.3%
16-2 8.3% 33.2% 32.9% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 5.5 0.5%
15-3 13.7% 29.9% 29.9% 12.5 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.3 9.6
14-4 16.2% 26.0% 26.0% 12.9 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 12.0
13-5 17.3% 19.9% 19.9% 13.3 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.2 13.9
12-6 13.7% 15.5% 15.5% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.6
11-7 11.0% 12.3% 12.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.6
10-8 7.1% 9.5% 9.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.4
9-9 4.4% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.1
8-10 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-11 0.9% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 21.2% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 5.9 7.9 4.1 1.2 0.2 78.5 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 86.3% 8.2 0.5 5.2 18.4 10.8 9.0 17.0 14.2 11.3