Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#27
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#26
Pace65.6#280
Improvement+4.3#1

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#16
First Shot+7.3#22
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#53
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+2.2#17

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#5
Layups/Dunks+8.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#348
Freethrows+1.6#86
Improvement+2.0#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 6.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.0% 23.2% 6.3%
Top 6 Seed 43.2% 43.5% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.8% 80.1% 49.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.1% 78.4% 46.7%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.8
.500 or above 95.9% 96.1% 79.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 80.9% 55.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.2% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 2.8%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
First Round77.4% 77.7% 45.7%
Second Round50.9% 51.1% 28.4%
Sweet Sixteen23.6% 23.7% 12.9%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.1% 2.2%
Final Four4.3% 4.4% 0.9%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.6%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 26 - 311 - 9
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 134   Oakland W 79-73 90%     1 - 0 +4.9 +8.8 -3.6
  Nov 10, 2023 19   Texas A&M L 66-73 57%     1 - 1 +4.0 +0.7 +2.8
  Nov 15, 2023 296   Merrimack W 76-52 97%     2 - 1 +13.7 +5.9 +8.9
  Nov 19, 2023 283   Western Michigan W 73-56 97%     3 - 1 +7.6 -0.2 +9.0
  Nov 24, 2023 9   Alabama W 92-81 35%     4 - 1 +27.9 +20.5 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2023 125   Santa Clara W 86-56 83%     5 - 1 +32.8 +23.5 +12.9
  Nov 29, 2023 313   Central Michigan W 83-59 99%    
  Dec 03, 2023 128   Minnesota W 76-63 89%    
  Dec 06, 2023 284   Miami (OH) W 83-61 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 90   @ Penn St. W 76-72 66%    
  Dec 16, 2023 26   UCLA L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 21, 2023 287   New Orleans W 87-64 98%    
  Dec 30, 2023 102   West Virginia W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 03, 2024 54   Rutgers W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 06, 2024 68   @ Indiana W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 10, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 15, 2024 55   @ Michigan W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 20, 2024 90   Penn St. W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 23, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 62   @ Northwestern W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 30, 2024 31   Illinois W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 02, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 06, 2024 68   Indiana W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 59   Maryland W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 13, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 18, 2024 1   Purdue L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 22, 2024 128   @ Minnesota W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 25, 2024 17   @ Michigan St. L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 29, 2024 52   Nebraska W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 03, 2024 55   Michigan W 77-70 71%    
  Mar 10, 2024 54   @ Rutgers W 66-65 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 5.2 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 4.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.3 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.5 1.0 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.5 11.4 13.2 12.7 11.4 9.3 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.1% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 84.9% 1.6    1.3 0.4 0.0
17-3 62.2% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
16-4 36.4% 2.3    1.1 1.1 0.2
15-5 15.4% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.4% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.3% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.1 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.4% 99.8% 9.2% 90.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.5 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 12.7% 99.0% 8.3% 90.7% 6.3 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.7 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 13.2% 95.5% 7.1% 88.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.6 95.1%
11-9 11.4% 87.8% 5.9% 81.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 1.4 87.0%
10-10 9.5% 73.4% 4.3% 69.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 1.4 0.1 2.5 72.2%
9-11 7.3% 41.6% 3.8% 37.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 4.3 39.3%
8-12 5.3% 11.8% 2.3% 9.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 9.7%
7-13 3.4% 3.8% 2.7% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.1%
6-14 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 79.8% 7.8% 72.0% 6.2 2.5 4.4 7.6 8.6 9.8 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.4 6.4 4.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.2 78.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.5 6.5