Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#324
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#321
Pace69.2#158
Improvement-5.4#349

Offense
Total Offense-9.4#351
First Shot-10.5#360
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#105
Layup/Dunks-7.8#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement-3.4#333

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#129
Layups/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#333
Freethrows-2.9#329
Improvement-2.0#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.4% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 72.8% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 4.4% 3.0%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 20 - 9
Quad 410 - 910 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 71   @ Mississippi L 59-69 4%     0 - 1 +0.6 -11.3 +11.9
  Nov 10, 2023 45   @ Iowa L 67-98 3%     0 - 2 -17.6 -8.2 -7.2
  Nov 17, 2023 68   @ Memphis L 75-92 4%     0 - 3 -6.1 +1.3 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2023 95   @ Samford L 67-99 5%     0 - 4 -23.3 -8.3 -12.6
  Nov 24, 2023 346   N.C. A&T W 88-73 63%     1 - 4 +2.0 +8.7 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2023 222   Merrimack W 66-60 OT 26%     2 - 4 +2.9 -8.4 +10.8
  Dec 13, 2023 80   @ LSU L 56-74 5%     2 - 5 -8.2 -8.6 -0.6
  Dec 19, 2023 97   USC L 59-79 12%     2 - 6 -16.8 -13.8 -2.4
  Dec 22, 2023 6   @ Auburn L 62-82 1%     2 - 7 +1.8 -4.9 +8.2
  Dec 29, 2023 94   @ South Florida L 70-73 5%     2 - 8 +5.7 +10.7 -5.4
  Jan 06, 2024 362   @ Mississippi Valley W 54-51 82%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -16.3 -17.1 +1.3
  Jan 08, 2024 339   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-72 50%     4 - 8 2 - 0 +1.3 -8.0 +7.7
  Jan 11, 2024 301   Jackson St. L 63-73 52%     4 - 9 2 - 1 -20.3 -17.3 -2.5
  Jan 13, 2024 298   Alcorn St. W 55-53 52%     5 - 9 3 - 1 -8.2 -19.3 +11.4
  Jan 15, 2024 340   Alabama A&M W 72-55 61%     6 - 9 4 - 1 +4.4 +1.3 +4.3
  Jan 27, 2024 338   @ Prairie View W 74-67 50%     7 - 9 5 - 1 -2.6 -4.2 +1.4
  Jan 29, 2024 281   @ Texas Southern L 55-56 27%     7 - 10 5 - 2 -4.3 -10.1 +5.7
  Feb 03, 2024 322   Bethune-Cookman L 68-79 60%     7 - 11 5 - 3 -23.3 -16.7 -5.7
  Feb 05, 2024 347   Florida A&M W 62-53 73%     8 - 11 6 - 3 -7.0 -15.4 +8.8
  Feb 10, 2024 287   @ Grambling St. L 68-74 29%     8 - 12 6 - 4 -10.0 -5.2 -4.8
  Feb 12, 2024 263   @ Southern L 62-73 24%     8 - 13 6 - 5 -13.4 -5.5 -8.5
  Feb 17, 2024 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74-80 70%     8 - 14 6 - 6 -21.1 -12.0 -8.8
  Feb 19, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 61-46 91%     9 - 14 7 - 6 -9.7 -15.2 +6.7
  Feb 24, 2024 347   @ Florida A&M L 65-73 53%     9 - 15 7 - 7 -18.6 -13.0 -5.4
  Feb 26, 2024 322   @ Bethune-Cookman L 84-90 OT 39%     9 - 16 7 - 8 -12.9 +0.6 -12.9
  Mar 02, 2024 340   @ Alabama A&M W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 07, 2024 263   Southern L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 09, 2024 287   Grambling St. L 63-64 50%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 1.7 4th
5th 1.2 4.9 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 10.6 4.4 15.1 6th
7th 13.5 21.3 1.1 36.0 7th
8th 1.1 18.2 1.7 21.0 8th
9th 13.4 6.1 0.1 19.6 9th
10th 0.6 0.6 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 15.1 37.9 34.9 12.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 12.2% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.8 11.4
9-9 34.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.5 33.4
8-10 37.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 1.1 36.8
7-11 15.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 14.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2% 6.6% 16.0 6.6
Lose Out 15.1% 1.7% 16.0 1.7