Purdue
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#1
Expected Predictive Rating+21.9#5
Pace72.0#109
Improvement-4.2#350

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#6
First Shot+9.8#8
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#150
Layup/Dunks+4.2#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#104
Freethrows+4.1#26
Improvement-1.6#310

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#5
First Shot+6.3#22
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#12
Layups/Dunks+4.7#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+3.5#24
Improvement-2.6#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 19.3% 20.7% 10.1%
#1 Seed 53.8% 56.6% 35.8%
Top 2 Seed 80.3% 82.8% 64.7%
Top 4 Seed 95.1% 96.0% 89.5%
Top 6 Seed 98.5% 98.9% 96.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 1.9 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.9% 96.0%
Conference Champion 49.4% 52.8% 28.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round95.4% 95.9% 92.6%
Sweet Sixteen73.9% 74.6% 69.4%
Elite Eight50.7% 51.9% 43.1%
Final Four32.8% 33.8% 26.3%
Championship Game20.3% 21.3% 14.3%
National Champion12.2% 13.0% 7.3%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 86.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 5
Quad 26 - 117 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 44 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 142   Samford W 98-45 97%     1 - 0 +51.4 +15.5 +32.0
  Nov 10, 2023 198   Morehead St. W 87-57 98%     2 - 0 +25.4 +17.5 +9.0
  Nov 13, 2023 45   Xavier W 83-71 88%     3 - 0 +19.5 +12.0 +7.1
  Nov 20, 2023 10   Gonzaga W 73-63 65%     4 - 0 +26.2 +3.0 +22.7
  Nov 21, 2023 8   Tennessee W 71-67 64%     5 - 0 +20.3 +5.5 +14.6
  Nov 22, 2023 6   Marquette W 78-75 62%     6 - 0 +19.9 +14.9 +5.1
  Nov 28, 2023 233   Texas Southern W 99-67 98%     7 - 0 +25.5 +16.4 +6.4
  Dec 01, 2023 52   @ Northwestern L 88-92 OT 76%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +8.5 +9.6 -0.6
  Dec 04, 2023 35   Iowa W 90-79 86%    
  Dec 09, 2023 15   Alabama W 86-81 66%    
  Dec 16, 2023 2   Arizona W 81-80 52%    
  Dec 21, 2023 245   Jacksonville W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 225   Eastern Kentucky W 90-64 99%    
  Jan 02, 2024 66   @ Maryland W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 05, 2024 19   Illinois W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 09, 2024 48   @ Nebraska W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 13, 2024 115   Penn St. W 86-66 96%    
  Jan 16, 2024 64   @ Indiana W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 20, 2024 35   @ Iowa W 87-82 69%    
  Jan 23, 2024 51   Michigan W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 28, 2024 63   @ Rutgers W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 31, 2024 52   Northwestern W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 04, 2024 22   @ Wisconsin W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 64   Indiana W 80-65 90%    
  Feb 15, 2024 112   Minnesota W 82-63 96%    
  Feb 18, 2024 26   @ Ohio St. W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 22, 2024 63   Rutgers W 75-60 90%    
  Feb 25, 2024 51   @ Michigan W 79-72 75%    
  Mar 02, 2024 16   Michigan St. W 73-65 75%    
  Mar 05, 2024 19   @ Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 10, 2024 22   Wisconsin W 74-64 81%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.3 12.1 14.6 10.7 3.8 49.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 5.6 7.9 5.7 1.6 0.2 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 1.4 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.9 8.7 13.5 16.4 18.2 16.2 10.9 3.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.0
18-2 98.5% 10.7    9.9 0.8 0.0
17-3 90.0% 14.6    11.9 2.6 0.1
16-4 66.6% 12.1    7.8 3.7 0.6 0.0
15-5 38.3% 6.3    2.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.5% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.4% 49.4 36.2 10.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 51.3% 48.7% 1.1 3.6 0.2 100.0%
18-2 10.9% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.1 9.8 1.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.2% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.2 13.5 2.6 0.1 100.0%
16-4 18.2% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.3 13.0 4.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.4% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.5 8.6 6.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.5% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.9 4.2 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.7% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.5 1.0 3.3 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.9% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3.3 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 3.1% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 100.0%
10-10 1.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.9% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.4% 99.5% 13.7% 85.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
7-13 0.2% 83.3% 6.9% 76.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.1%
6-14 0.1% 55.3% 13.2% 42.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.5%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 30.1% 69.9% 1.9 53.8 26.6 10.6 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2