Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.6#340
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#336
Pace75.1#33
Improvement+2.9#56

Offense
Total Offense-9.6#353
First Shot-7.7#347
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#298
Layup/Dunks-2.2#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.7#358
Freethrows+3.4#17
Improvement-3.4#334

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#262
First Shot-3.1#282
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-0.5#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
Freethrows-4.0#356
Improvement+6.3#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.2% 61.1% 13.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 90 - 12
Quad 49 - 109 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 247   @ North Alabama L 67-83 15%     0 - 1 -17.6 -12.8 -3.9
  Nov 18, 2023 160   @ Lipscomb L 81-106 8%     0 - 2 -22.1 -4.8 -14.2
  Nov 21, 2023 6   @ Auburn L 54-84 0.5%    0 - 3 -8.2 -10.0 +2.8
  Nov 24, 2023 198   East Tennessee St. L 71-82 17%     0 - 4 -13.3 +0.5 -14.1
  Nov 25, 2023 206   @ Cleveland St. L 59-86 12%     0 - 5 -26.8 -16.3 -10.4
  Nov 29, 2023 296   Tennessee St. W 85-83 OT 40%     1 - 5 -8.0 -2.3 -5.9
  Dec 02, 2023 167   @ Vanderbilt L 59-78 9%     1 - 6 -16.5 -13.7 -2.4
  Dec 09, 2023 128   @ Georgia Tech L 49-70 6%     1 - 7 -15.5 -18.6 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2023 95   @ Samford L 91-118 3%     1 - 8 -18.3 -4.1 -6.9
  Dec 13, 2023 117   UAB L 82-93 11%     1 - 9 -10.2 +7.5 -17.7
  Dec 16, 2023 144   Chattanooga L 72-88 15%     1 - 10 -17.3 -5.6 -11.3
  Dec 21, 2023 207   @ South Alabama L 67-83 12%     1 - 11 -15.9 -13.6 -0.7
  Dec 30, 2023 79   @ Georgia L 73-93 3%     1 - 12 -10.2 -3.8 -4.0
  Jan 06, 2024 339   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 63-62 39%     2 - 12 1 - 0 -8.7 -16.0 +7.3
  Jan 08, 2024 362   @ Mississippi Valley W 78-70 74%     3 - 12 2 - 0 -11.3 +3.6 -14.4
  Jan 11, 2024 298   Alcorn St. L 71-74 41%     3 - 13 2 - 1 -13.2 -4.3 -9.1
  Jan 13, 2024 301   Jackson St. L 67-75 41%     3 - 14 2 - 2 -18.3 -7.9 -10.6
  Jan 15, 2024 324   Alabama St. L 55-72 39%     3 - 15 2 - 3 -26.7 -14.2 -13.6
  Jan 27, 2024 281   @ Texas Southern L 69-85 19%     3 - 16 2 - 4 -19.3 -5.4 -13.1
  Jan 29, 2024 338   @ Prairie View L 76-87 38%     3 - 17 2 - 5 -20.6 -11.1 -7.8
  Feb 03, 2024 347   Florida A&M W 73-61 63%     4 - 17 3 - 5 -4.0 -7.9 +3.7
  Feb 05, 2024 322   Bethune-Cookman W 72-68 49%     5 - 17 4 - 5 -8.3 -6.1 -2.2
  Feb 10, 2024 263   @ Southern L 62-69 17%     5 - 18 4 - 6 -9.4 -12.3 +3.3
  Feb 12, 2024 287   @ Grambling St. W 60-50 21%     6 - 18 5 - 6 +6.0 -12.2 +18.2
  Feb 17, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 80-57 87%     7 - 18 6 - 6 -1.7 +2.7 -3.2
  Feb 19, 2024 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-67 60%     8 - 18 7 - 6 -7.1 -14.3 +6.3
  Feb 24, 2024 322   @ Bethune-Cookman L 61-63 29%     8 - 19 7 - 7 -8.9 -11.2 +2.1
  Feb 26, 2024 347   @ Florida A&M L 58-76 42%     8 - 20 7 - 8 -28.6 -21.0 -6.9
  Mar 02, 2024 324   Alabama St. L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 07, 2024 287   Grambling St. L 66-69 40%    
  Mar 09, 2024 263   Southern L 68-73 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.1 4th
5th 1.0 3.2 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 8.9 2.7 11.6 6th
7th 13.6 17.9 0.7 32.3 7th
8th 1.5 20.9 1.6 24.0 8th
9th 18.7 7.3 0.0 26.0 9th
10th 0.8 0.8 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 21.1 41.8 29.5 7.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 7.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.6
9-9 29.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 29.2
8-10 41.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 41.6
7-11 21.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 21.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.7% 1.2% 16.0 1.2
Lose Out 21.1% 0.2% 16.0 0.2