Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#170
Pace73.3#72
Improvement-4.0#347

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#142
First Shot+1.3#144
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#88
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement-0.5#219

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#248
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#137
Layups/Dunks-2.7#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#248
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement-3.5#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 13.8% 28.3% 11.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 26.6% 17.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 16.7% 26.6%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 82 - 11
Quad 35 - 77 - 18
Quad 45 - 111 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 334   Southern Indiana W 75-63 89%     1 - 0 -2.3 -5.2 +2.5
  Nov 11, 2023 214   Illinois St. W 80-71 65%     2 - 0 +3.8 +0.0 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2023 163   Wyoming W 79-69 45%     3 - 0 +10.1 +1.7 +7.6
  Nov 17, 2023 110   Vermont L 68-78 31%     3 - 1 -6.1 +1.6 -8.5
  Nov 19, 2023 84   Wichita St. L 69-88 24%     3 - 2 -12.9 -6.5 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2023 285   Dartmouth W 66-65 79%     4 - 2 -8.7 -4.7 -3.9
  Nov 28, 2023 56   Utah St. L 76-81 25%     4 - 3 +0.9 +9.2 -8.5
  Dec 02, 2023 109   @ Southern Illinois L 62-101 22%     4 - 4 -32.0 -5.1 -27.4
  Dec 06, 2023 72   @ Drake L 70-82 14%    
  Dec 09, 2023 100   Hofstra L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 16, 2023 102   Louisiana Tech L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 20, 2023 67   @ North Carolina St. L 72-84 13%    
  Jan 03, 2024 119   Loyola Chicago L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 98   @ George Mason L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 10, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 16, 2024 60   @ Dayton L 64-77 13%    
  Jan 19, 2024 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-76 19%    
  Jan 24, 2024 123   Davidson L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 133   Massachusetts L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 30, 2024 119   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 03, 2024 170   Fordham W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 07, 2024 200   @ La Salle L 77-79 40%    
  Feb 10, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 16, 2024 93   Virginia Commonwealth L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 20, 2024 85   @ Duquesne L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 24, 2024 162   George Washington W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 28, 2024 90   Richmond L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 02, 2024 173   @ Rhode Island L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 05, 2024 60   Dayton L 67-74 28%    
  Mar 09, 2024 99   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-77 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.2 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.1 0.8 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.2 0.1 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.5 0.4 9.1 11th
12th 0.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 0.0 10.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.1 3.5 0.4 13.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.9 4.2 0.7 15.0 14th
15th 0.4 2.0 4.3 4.7 3.4 0.8 0.1 15.6 15th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.0 8.6 12.6 14.5 14.5 13.5 10.3 7.7 5.0 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0%
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 61.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 29.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.3% 17.0% 17.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.6% 9.6% 9.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.7% 6.6% 6.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 3.1% 5.4% 5.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
10-8 5.0% 3.7% 3.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
9-9 7.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
8-10 10.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 10.1
7-11 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.3
6-12 14.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.3
5-13 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.3
4-14 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.5
3-15 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%