Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 #78
Expected Predictive Rating +9.9 #60
Pace 73.1 #70
Improvement -0.4 #206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #64 A C+ D+ C- B+
Defense #111 B- C C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.31 #32 +6.7 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #344 0.76 #161 -3.6 #342
Three Pointers 45% #99 1.23 #5 +6.9 #17
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #3 +9.9 #3
Freethrows 0.30 #189 68% #313 0.21 #226
Second Chance 28.9% #228 1.19 #34 0.35 #118
Turnovers 18.2% #289
Total Offense +5.4 #64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #358 1.03 #39 +8.3 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #257 0.62 #12 +2.2 #35
Three Pointers 55% #3 1.01 #171 -6.9 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #64 +3.6 #66
Freethrows 0.26 #51 75% #325 0.19 #79
Second Chance 31.8% #239 1.03 #155 0.33 #207
Turnovers 17.7% #93
Total Defense +2.0 #111

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #18 -0.9% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.7% #11 -6.2% #68
Possession Length 15.7 #45 18.5 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #244 0.14 #88
Improvement +2.1 #76 -2.6 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 32.5% 27.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.0% 87.5% 56.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round30.8% 32.2% 27.4%
Second Round5.6% 6.0% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 24 - 2
Quad 313 - 417 - 6
Quad 49 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 347 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +1 +6 B- F A- -4 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 229 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 90% +6  2 - 0 +1 -2 C+ F+ D- +2 B+ C C
 Sat, Nov 15 331 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 91% +6  3 - 0 +15 +1 A- A F +13 A+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 169 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 85% +7  4 - 0 +3 -6 C B- F +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 354 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +23 +13 A+ C- C +9 A B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 164 Toledo W 87 - 72 77% +3  6 - 0 +15 +9 A+ A+ F +5 B- C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 160 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  7 - 0 +26 +24 A+ D A +2 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 117 Richmond L 76 - 84 77% +0  7 - 1 -8 -2 C+ B F+ -6 F A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 142 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 63% +8  8 - 1 +25 +13 A+ C A- +12 A+ D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 138 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 80% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 +1 +23 A+ C+ D -21 F+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 267 @Evansville W 83 - 78 83% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +2 +5 C+ D- D+ -3 C B- D
 Fri, Dec 19 120 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +32 +19 A+ C+ F +13 A- A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 196 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 74% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 -0 +2 C+ C- F -2 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 127 Bradley W 88 - 78 79% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +9 +15 A A+ D- -6 D C- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 134 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 80% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -2 -3 A+ D F +0 C C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 114 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 54% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +19 +29 A+ B A+ -7 B- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 152 @Drake W 78 - 76 65% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +4 F+ A F+ +1 F+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 167 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 85% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 +0 +11 A+ F+ B+ -10 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 134 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 61% +2  16 - 3 7 - 2 +10 +7 C- B- A+ +3 A- B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 88 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 65% +6  17 - 3 8 - 2 +14 +10 A+ C- F+ +4 A+ D- A-
 Wed, Jan 28 167 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 68% +2  18 - 3 9 - 2 +3 +10 A+ B+ F -6 D C D+
 Sat, Jan 31 103 Murray St. W 89 - 83 70%
 Tue, Feb 3 152 Drake W 82 - 72 83%
 Fri, Feb 6 138 @Illinois-Chicago W 77 - 74 61%
 Mon, Feb 9 127 @Bradley W 79 - 77 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 114 Northern Iowa W 71 - 64 75%
 Sun, Feb 15 103 @Murray St. L 86 - 87 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 88%
 Wed, Feb 25 267 Evansville W 83 - 67 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 88 @Illinois St. L 75 - 77 42%
Totals 24 - 6 15 - 5 +7 +5 A C+ D+ +2 B- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 9.7 23.6 25.3 14.7 3.9 78.0 1st
2nd 0.3 4.1 7.4 2.7 0.1 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.8 8.4 18.0 26.3 25.4 14.7 3.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.9    3.9
17-3 100.0% 14.7    14.7
16-4 99.8% 25.3    23.7 1.6
15-5 89.6% 23.6    15.7 7.4 0.6
14-6 53.9% 9.7    2.9 4.7 1.8 0.2
13-7 10.6% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 78.0% 78.0 60.9 13.9 2.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.9% 42.9% 38.4% 4.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 2.2 7.3%
17-3 14.7% 41.1% 40.3% 0.8% 11.3 0.1 4.2 1.7 0.0 8.6 1.3%
16-4 25.4% 33.7% 33.4% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 4.0 4.5 0.1 16.8 0.4%
15-5 26.3% 30.4% 30.3% 0.0% 11.8 2.2 5.5 0.3 18.3 0.1%
14-6 18.0% 24.2% 24.2% 11.9 0.8 3.3 0.2 13.6
13-7 8.4% 22.9% 22.9% 12.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 6.5
12-8 2.8% 16.0% 16.0% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.3
11-9 0.5% 13.1% 13.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.0% 30.6% 0.4% 11.6 69.0 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 10.7 1.3 7.7 15.2 71.7 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 8.8% 11.0 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 7.7% 10.9 1.1 6.6